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Chelsea
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Premier League 2025/26 Season Stats
“Chelsea have quietly become one of the most resilient sides in the league. Sitting 4th with only 4 losses, they are experts at grinding out results. The market is overpricing their goal lines; at Stamford Bridge, Under 2.5 Goals has landed in 50% of matches. With Caicedo breaking up play (and picking up cards), low-scoring draws or narrow wins are the new normal for the Blues.”
Tyler Morris, Senior Football AnalystChelsea Betting Guide: Trends & Tactics (2025/26)
Under their current setup, Chelsea have stabilised significantly, sitting firmly in the top four. Unlike the chaos of previous seasons, this Chelsea side is defined by control and tight margins. They average 1.71 points per game and have conceded just 17 goals in 17 matches—a defensive record bettered only by the top three.
Why Backing the ‘Draw’ is Value
The stats reveal a team that is hard to beat but sometimes struggles to kill off games.
- Stalemate Specialists: Chelsea have drawn 29% of their matches this season, including tough away fixtures. The “Draw” has been a profitable play against top-half opposition.
- First Half Tightness: In the first half of games, Chelsea have gone into the break drawing in 35% of their matches. The “Half-Time Draw” market is a consistent trend.
- Late Goals: Interestingly, Chelsea are vulnerable late on, conceding 24% of their goals in the final 10 minutes. This makes the “Goal After 75:00” market worth watching in-play.
“Pedro Neto and João Pedro are carrying this attack with 5 goals each. But the real value is in the disciplinary markets. Moisés Caicedo has already collected 5 yellow cards and commits tactical fouls for fun. Against fast transition teams like Villa or Bournemouth, Caicedo ‘To Be Carded’ is the first name on my bet slip.”
— Steve Harrington, EFL & PL ExpertPlayer Props: The Value List
| Player | Market | Stat (2025/26) | Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Neto | Score or Assist | 5 Goals, 3 Assists | Joint-top scorer. Most dangerous attacker. |
| João Pedro | Anytime Scorer | 5 Goals | Clinical finisher. Value in “To Score” markets. |
| Moisés Caicedo | To Be Carded | 5 Cards | Averaging a card every 3.4 games. High value. |
| Reece James | To Assist | 3 Assists | Key creator from wide areas when fit. |
Upcoming Fixtures Analysis
Chelsea stay at Stamford Bridge for a festive double-header, hosting Aston Villa (Dec 27) and AFC Bournemouth (Dec 30). While Villa are a direct top-4 rival, Chelsea’s home form (only 2 losses in 8) suggests they will be tough to beat. However, with both teams averaging over 2.5 goals in recent weeks, the Villa game could open up. The real value lies in the Bournemouth fixture; the Cherries concede heavily on the road, making “Chelsea to Win & Over 1.5 Goals” a solid selection to close out the year.
