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Can Everton turn control into cutting edge at Turf Moor? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is based on the significant gap in defensive stability between the two clubs. The visitors have conceded only 20 goals this season compared to 34 for the home side, while also boasting a much higher clean sheet ratio. Statistical data shows the visitors create more dangerous attacks and average more shots per game, frequently entering the opposition box. With the home side currently on an eight-match winless run and sitting 19th in the table, the visitors' more balanced profile makes them the logical choice to secure three points.
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A 2-0 victory for the visitors aligns with their strong defensive record of seven clean sheets and Burnley's frequent struggles to find the back of the net. Burnley's possession and pass accuracy figures suggest they may struggle to dominate the ball, leading to a match where the visitors can control the pace and capitalize on a defense that averages two goals conceded per game. The visitors' preference for shooting from inside the penalty area increases the likelihood of them converting multiple chances while their disciplined structure limits the home side's opportunities.
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Burnley vs Everton Predictions and Best Bets
Burnley vs Everton — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below is informational. Prices can change. 18+ GambleAware.
Pricing reflects Everton’s status as favorites away from home against 19th-placed Burnley.
Low margin results are priced shortest, consistent with both teams’ scoring averages this season.
Prices lean toward a lower-scoring affair at Turf Moor.
- Everton’s defensive steadiness stands out: they’ve kept 7 clean sheets across 19 matches, while Burnley have managed 2, shaping how long each side can stay calm under pressure.
- Everton have generated 981 “dangerous attacks” across 19 games compared to Burnley’s 709, hinting at more frequent entries into threatening zones and longer spells spent near goal.
- Burnley’s recent home pattern looks harsh: they’ve lost four straight Premier League home matches, a run that puts extra weight on the opening stages at Turf Moor.
Defensive Reliability: League Goals Conceded
A comparison of total goals conceded across 17 league fixtures highlights a significant gap in defensive organization.
Averaging two goals conceded per game, defensive lapses have been a persistent issue in their campaign.
Everton have maintained a much tighter structure, conceding 41% fewer goals than their opponents.
Attacking Intent: Dangerous Attacks Comparison
Volume of threatening play indicates which side is more frequently creating pressure in the final third.
With lower possession and fewer shots, creating high-quality chances remains a challenge.
Everton have been significantly more active in entering the opposition’s penalty area.
Everton’s trip to Turf Moor comes with that familiar end-of-year edge: tight turnarounds, tired legs, and just enough squad disruption to make every decision feel amplified. David Moyes has confirmed there are no fresh injury concerns, but the bigger picture is unchanged — and it’s the unchanged bits that shape how this one could look.
Everton arrive looking to respond after a narrow home defeat to Arsenal last time out. Burnley, meanwhile, have been collecting hard lessons over recent weeks, with results that have left them down in 19th place. It’s a meeting between a side trying to steady their league position in 10th and a home team searching for something to cling to — a foothold, a pattern, a proper ninety-minute performance that doesn’t unravel at the first wobble.
Turf Moor doesn’t tend to hand out favours, but it does demand clarity. And with absences on both sides — some through injury, some through suspension, some through AFCON — this match feels like it will be decided less by the perfect plan and more by which team can impose their version of “simple” for longer.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Moyes’ message was straightforward: Everton are “just about the same” as they were at the weekend. The headline is that Merlin Röhl has made his comeback from a hernia issue, returning off the bench against Arsenal, and is set to be involved again in the matchday squad. That matters, because Moyes also admitted the festive load has felt tougher for clubs carrying a thinner group — and Everton have added AFCON absences into the mix.
Jarrad Branthwaite and Séamus Coleman remain sidelined with hamstring issues, while Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gana Gueye are unavailable after linking up with Senegal for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. Moyes was hopeful about Branthwaite returning soon, but also made clear he’s still at least “two to three weeks” away from integrating back, possibly longer.
Burnley’s list is more cluttered. Scott Parker will be without Hannibal Mejbri, who serves the final game of a four-match ban. Lyle Foster and Axel Tuanzebe are unavailable due to AFCON with South Africa. Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Bashir Humphreys and Jordan Beyer are expected to be ruled out through injury, while Maxime Estève faces a late fitness check after a knock picked up in the 1-1 draw at Bournemouth.
With no confirmed line-ups provided, the clearest read is what the absences do to balance. Everton are missing a forward contributor in Ndiaye and a midfield presence in Gueye, plus two experienced defensive options in Branthwaite and Coleman. Burnley are missing bodies across the pitch — including Hannibal’s role between the lines — and may be managing a key defensive decision late if Estève isn’t fully right.
How the Match Could Be Played
The shape of this game may be dictated by what each side can repeat rather than what they can invent. Burnley’s season numbers point to a team that often works without the ball: their Premier League possession sits at 40.8% with a 77.6% pass accuracy. That combination usually paints a picture of shorter spells of control, a focus on staying connected, and a need to make attacking phases count when they finally arrive.
Everton’s league possession is higher at 43.1% with a 79.5% pass accuracy, which suggests they’re slightly more comfortable circulating play — not necessarily dominating, but spending more time in the opposition half and doing more with set structure. If Everton can keep the game in that “controlled pressure” zone, Turf Moor starts to feel less chaotic and more like a test of patience.
The interesting tension is where chances come from. Everton average 10.3 shots per game in the Premier League, Burnley 8.5. That’s not a gulf, but it hints at Everton producing more moments, more often — and that matters against a Burnley side that has conceded 34 league goals, compared to Everton’s 20. If Everton can pin Burnley back for long stretches, the match could tilt into repeated waves: regain, reset, go again.
Burnley’s route, in that scenario, is likely to be about breaking the rhythm. Their profile includes 16.2 aerials won per league match, and Everton’s is even higher at 20.8. That’s a big clue for the “texture” of the game: second balls, duels, and territory. If both sides lean into aerial contests, you can end up with a match that’s less about pretty patterns and more about who is sharper to the drop, who lands the first contact, and who can turn a loose ball into a proper attack rather than a hopeful swing.
Transitions could be decisive. Everton’s totals for attacks (1831) and dangerous attacks (981) are higher than Burnley’s (1576 and 709). That points to Everton getting into threatening areas more frequently over the same number of games played. The question is how Burnley react when Everton enter those zones: do they retreat early and protect the box, or do they step in and risk being played around?
Personnel-wise, the absences hint at where the weak points might be. Without Branthwaite and Coleman, Everton’s defensive options are reduced, and Moyes referenced the need for numbers in the squad. That can influence how adventurous a team becomes — especially away from home — because every sprint back feels like it costs double when the bench is thinner. For Burnley, Hannibal’s suspension removes a player who can connect midfield and attack, and the uncertainty over Estève’s fitness adds potential disruption to their defensive structure.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Everton’s defensive foundation has been sturdier in league terms: 20 goals conceded across 17 Premier League matches, compared to Burnley’s 34 conceded across 17. That isn’t just a cosmetic difference. Over time, conceding fewer often means you can survive the scrappy stretches — the corners, the long throws, the two-minute spells where the ball refuses to stick.
Clean sheets reinforce that theme. Everton have 7 clean sheets across their 19 matches listed, while Burnley have 2. That suggests Everton are more capable of turning control into a shut door — and if this becomes a game of territory and duels, the side that can defend their box with consistency usually earns the right to nick the key moment.
There’s also a hint of style in the shot-location splits. Everton’s shots are recorded as 67% from inside the box and 33% from outside; Burnley’s are 59% inside and 41% outside. Inside-box shooting is generally a marker of getting closer to goal before pulling the trigger, and it fits with Everton’s higher “dangerous attacks” total. If Everton can keep building entries that end in box touches rather than hopeful efforts, Burnley’s defensive workload rises quickly.
Set-piece pressure may sit just under the surface too. Everton average 4.47 corners per game (85 total), Burnley 3.63 (69 total). Corners don’t guarantee goals, but they do guarantee repeat defending — and with both sides showing strong aerial numbers, it’s easy to imagine phases where the ball is constantly dropping into crowded areas.
Finally, the league table context is stark: Everton are 10th on 24 points; Burnley are 19th on 11 points. That gap can sometimes tighten a match psychologically: one side feels they should control it, the other feels they must disrupt it. Those are two very different energies, and they often collide in the first fifteen minutes.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing factor is whether Everton can turn volume into clarity. Their higher shot average and higher dangerous-attack total suggest they will create more sequences in Burnley’s third, but Turf Moor doesn’t reward half-chances. If Everton’s best moments end with blocked efforts — they have 66 shots blocked in the listed shot breakdown — Burnley can stay alive, stay stubborn, and let the crowd feed off every deflection.
The second is Burnley’s ability to turn defensive actions into real counter-attacks. Their overall possession and pass numbers point to a team that often has to be selective; if they win the ball and immediately give it back, Everton can reset their pressure and grind. If they win it and keep it for just long enough to draw Everton out, the match opens.
The third is discipline of structure under fatigue and rotation pressures. Moyes explicitly talked about the festive schedule being tougher when your squad is light and when absences stack up. That doesn’t automatically mean chaos, but it does put a premium on decision-making: when to press, when to drop, when to kill a counter with a clever foul, and when to play the simple pass that keeps your shape.
The fourth is who wins the “second-ball game”. Both sides’ aerial numbers are high, which often means the first contact is only half the battle. If Everton can consistently claim knockdowns and recycle possession, Burnley will feel penned in. If Burnley can turn those scraps into forward momentum, Everton’s defensive absences become more relevant.
What could go wrong with this read? Football rarely follows tidy scripts, and games like this can hinge on a single miscontrol, a ricochet in the box, or a moment where a tired defender loses a runner for one second too long. If Burnley land an early goal, the whole rhythm flips: Everton have to chase, the game stretches, and the neat “control vs disruption” dynamic gets replaced by pure emotion.
Best Bet for Burnley vs Everton
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Everton to win
Rationale
The dynamic between these two sides is currently defined by a significant contrast in defensive reliability and the ability to control games through efficient structure. Everton arrive at Turf Moor sitting 10th in the Premier League with 24 points, having established a far more resilient foundation than their hosts. While they are looking to bounce back from a tight defeat against Arsenal, the broader statistical profile shows a team that is much more capable of securing results on the road.
A primary factor supporting an away win is the stark difference in defensive records. Everton have conceded only 20 goals in 17 league matches, whereas Burnley have struggled significantly, shipping 34 goals over the same period. This suggests that even when games become scrappy—a common occurrence during the heavy festive schedule—the visitors possess the organization required to absorb pressure. Furthermore, Everton have recorded seven clean sheets across their listed matches this season, compared to just two for Burnley. In a match where both teams are dealing with squad rotation and absences due to injury and international duty, the team that can rely on a proven defensive setup holds a massive advantage.
Offensively, the visitors also hold the edge in productivity. Everton average 10.3 shots per game and have registered 981 dangerous attacks, significantly higher than Burnley’s 709. This suggests a greater frequency of high-quality entries into the final third. With 67% of Everton’s shots coming from inside the box, they are consistently finding better scoring positions than a Burnley side that relies more heavily on long-range efforts. Burnley’s lower possession average of 40.8% and a pass accuracy of 77.6% point to a team that often struggles to sustain pressure, potentially allowing the visitors to dictate the tempo. Given that Burnley are winless in their last eight outings and sit 19th in the table, the evidence points toward a controlled performance from the more established side.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk lies in the physical toll of the festive period and the specific personnel missing from the visitors’ backline. Without Jarrad Branthwaite and Séamus Coleman, the defensive unit is less settled than usual, which could be exploited if Burnley manage to leverage their high aerial-duel success rate (16.2 won per match). If the home side can turn the game into a chaotic, high-energy battle of second balls, the visitors’ usual structural advantage might be neutralized by a moment of individual brilliance or a set-piece scramble.
Correct score lean
Burnley 0 – 2 Everton
The selection of a 2-0 scoreline is supported by the fact that Everton are defensively superior, conceding nearly 40% fewer goals than Burnley this season. With seven clean sheets already to their name, they have shown the ability to shut out teams in the lower half of the table. Offensively, they create a high volume of “dangerous attacks” and prioritize high-percentage shots from inside the box. Against a Burnley defense that has conceded 34 times in 17 games, the visitors have the quality to find the net twice while maintaining their defensive integrity.
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