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Can Brighton turn Amex comfort into a statement win, or will Bournemouth’s chaos football crash the party? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Bournemouth have seen BTTS land in seven straight games and concede 2.9 goals per away match. Brighton are prolific at home, scoring in 80% of recent games.
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Brighton average 1.8 goals at home and have won four straight home H2Hs against the Cherries, who consistently score but fail to defend away.
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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Bournemouth Predictions and Best Bets
Brighton vs Bournemouth — BetMGM Market Snapshot
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Brighton have won 19 of their 29 points at the Amex, while Bournemouth have conceded 2+ goals in nine straight away matches.
Bournemouth have seen BTTS in 7 consecutive matches, while Brighton average 13.7 shots per game.
- Amex Advantage: Brighton have taken 19 of their 29 Premier League points at home, and they’ve lost just two of their last 18 league matches at the Amex Stadium.
- Goals On The Menu: Across recent games, both teams have scored in all of Bournemouth’s last seven matches in all competitions, while Brighton have scored in 20 of their last 25 matches overall.
- Volume Shooters: These sides don’t wait around — Brighton average 13.72 total shots per game (343 total), Bournemouth average 14.35 (330 total), and both put 62% of attempts inside the box.
Attacking Intent: Total Shots per Match
Both sides prioritize offensive volume, with Bournemouth averaging the most attempts between the two sides.
Brighton have registered 343 total shots across the campaign so far.
The visitors focus on frequency, totaling 330 shots despite playing fewer games.
Defensive Performance: Goals Conceded
The hosts maintain a tighter defensive shape compared to their opponents.
Bournemouth have struggled to shut opponents out, particularly in away fixtures.
Premier League gameweek 22 signs off with a proper south-coast scrap as Brighton & Hove Albion welcome Bournemouth to the Amex Stadium. It has the feel of a junction in the season: Brighton sit 11th with 29 points, Bournemouth 15th with 26, and the gap to the pack above stays tempting if someone can string momentum together.
Brighton arrive with a bounce — a gritty 1-1 draw at Manchester City followed by a punchy 2-1 FA Cup win at Manchester United, and a four-match unbeaten run across competitions. Bournemouth, meanwhile, come off FA Cup penalty-shootout heartbreak after a 3-3 at Newcastle, and their recent run has been choppy despite flashes of bite.
Kick-off is at 20:00 — and it should feel like it.
Team News & Lineups
Team News
- Brighton absences
- S. March (Fitness) — out until 31.01.2026
- S. Tzimas (Cruciate Ligament Tear) — out until 01.09.2026
- J. Steele (Unknown injury) — return date not specified
- A. Webster (Cruciate Ligament Injury) — out until 01.06.2026
- Bournemouth absences
- No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Brighton (possible XI): Verbruggen; Veltman, Dunk, Van Hecke, De Cuyper; Ayari, Gross; Gruda, Gomez, Mitoma; Rutter
Bournemouth (possible XI): Petrovic; Smith, Hill, Senesi, Truffert; Scott, Cook; Jimenez, Kroupi, Tavernier; Evanilson
What it means
Brighton’s shape reads like a side built to play fast through the middle and then explode wide, with Mitoma and Gruda as the spark and Rutter as the connector. Bournemouth’s front four screams direct threat — if Tavernier, Kroupi and Evanilson get early touches, the game can flip in seconds.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Brighton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 15th |
| Points | 29 | 26 |
| Goals (Premier League) | 31 | 34 |
| Goals conceded (Premier League) | 28 | 40 |
| Shots per game (Premier League) | 13.2 | 13.8 |
| Possession (Premier League) | 52.0% | 50.6% |
| Pass accuracy (Premier League) | 84.3% | 80.0% |
| Corners (total / per game) | 112 / 4.48 | 128 / 5.57 |
| Yellow cards (total / per game) | 61 / 2.44 | 59 / 2.57 |
Brighton’s profile is slightly more controlled: more ball, cleaner passing, and a stronger defensive record in the league (28 conceded to Bournemouth’s 40). Bournemouth bring more set-piece and crossing energy, shown by the higher corner count and a style geared to living in the opposition half.
This looks like a match where Brighton try to dictate rhythm, while Bournemouth try to crank up the volatility.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Brighton: control, combinations, and that snap of individual skill
Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton want the ball — not for decoration, but to pull teams apart with short passes, work through the middle, and then hit bursts down the right. They’re rated very strong for creating chances through individual skill and for long-shot opportunities, which fits a night where the first crack in shape could decide the tone.
But there’s a catch: Brighton have weaknesses that invite a punch-back. They can be vulnerable defending counter attacks, and they can be exposed by individual errors and dangerous-area fouls. That matters against a Bournemouth side that loves transition moments and has the tools to punish.
Look for Brighton to build patiently through Ayari and Gross, then speed the tempo when Gomez or Mitoma gets half a yard. If Bournemouth sit too deep, Brighton’s long-shot tendency becomes a weapon — not just for shooting, but for rebounds and second balls.
Bournemouth: shots, crosses, and ruthless swings of momentum
Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth are built to attack: take a lot of shots, attempt crosses often, play in the opposition half, and hit counter attacks when the moment lands. Their strengths include attacking set pieces and coming back from losing positions — a side that doesn’t fold when the script turns against them.
The problem is on the other side of the ball. Bournemouth are very weak at protecting a lead and very weak at defending counter attacks — and they’re also listed as weak at defending set pieces, aerial duels, and dealing with skillful players. That’s a dangerous cocktail at the Amex, where Brighton can lure pressure and then cut through it.
The key mismatch
Brighton’s ability to create through individual skill runs straight at Bournemouth’s discomfort defending skillful players. If Brighton win enough duels high up the pitch, Bournemouth’s back line can end up defending facing their own goal — the worst possible scenario for a team that has conceded 2+ goals in nine straight away matches in all competitions.
Still, Bournemouth’s shot volume and crossing game means Brighton won’t be allowed to switch off for a second.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Brighton are strong defending set pieces, while Bournemouth are strong attacking set pieces but weak defending them. That contrast can decide a tight contest.
- First goal timing: Brighton’s average first goal comes around 49′, Bournemouth’s around 39′. If Bournemouth land an earlier punch, the game-state gets loud quickly.
- Discipline and cheap fouls: Brighton are vulnerable to fouling in dangerous areas, and Bournemouth are aggressive too (both around 2.5 yellows per game). One rash tackle near the box could swing it.
- Wide delivery vs box defending: Bournemouth want crosses; Brighton have aerial-duel weakness listed. If Bournemouth rack up corners (5.57 per game), Brighton’s defensive focus has to be relentless.
What could go wrong? (volatility check)
Brighton’s control game can backfire if they get sloppy in their own half — their counter-attack defending is a known soft spot, and Bournemouth actively hunt those moments. Flip it the other way and Bournemouth’s risk-heavy style can unravel if Brighton play through the press and attack the space left behind, especially if Bournemouth struggle to protect any advantage they gain.
Either way, the match has the ingredients for momentum swings — and plenty of them.
Best Bet for Brighton vs Bournemouth
Will the Amex Fortress Hold Against Bournemouth’s Chaos?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring Consistency | BHA scored in 20/25; BOU scored in last 7 | Back BTTS |
| Goal Volume | BHA concede 1.1 at home; BOU concede 2.9 away | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Home Dominance | BHA 19/29 points at Amex; 2 losses in 18 | Brighton Win |
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Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
The statistical profile of this south-coast clash points directly toward a high-scoring affair where both nets bulge. Bournemouth are the definitive “chaos” side of the Premier League this season, particularly on their travels. They maintain the second-highest scoring rate for away teams in the division, averaging 1.8 goals per game, yet they simultaneously possess the worst defensive record on the road, conceding a staggering 2.9 goals per match.
Brighton are incredibly reliable at the Amex Stadium, having secured 19 of their 29 total points at home. They have found the back of the net in 20 of their last 25 matches across all competitions, and their recent 2-1 FA Cup victory over Manchester United highlights their current clinical edge. When you combine Brighton’s attacking efficiency with Bournemouth’s defensive fragility—the visitors have conceded two or more goals in nine straight away fixtures—a home goal is nearly a certainty.
However, the visitors are far from shot-shy. Bournemouth average 14.35 shots per game and have seen both teams score in each of their last seven outings. Brighton have shown a specific vulnerability to counter-attacks and individual errors, which plays right into the hands of a Bournemouth side that thrives on transition moments and high shot volume.
Given that eight of the last nine league meetings between these two have seen at least two goals, and Brighton’s tendency to strike late—scoring in the second half in eight of those nine encounters—this match is built for a shootout. The data suggests Brighton will likely outlast their visitors, but not without conceding in a game that clears the 2.5-goal threshold comfortably.
What could go wrong? Brighton’s tactical control could turn the game into a sterile possession battle if they prioritize neutralizing Bournemouth’s counter-attack over their own forward bursts. If the hosts manage to stifle the game early and Bournemouth fail to capitalize on their high shot volume, the match could fall under the goal line, especially if Brighton’s defensive discipline remains unusually high.
Correct Score Lean
Brighton 2-1 Bournemouth
Brighton have won their last four home league matches against Bournemouth and currently enjoy a four-match unbeaten run. While Bournemouth are scoring freely—averaging 1.8 goals away from home—their defensive record of 2.9 goals conceded per away trip makes a clean sheet unlikely. Brighton average 1.8 goals scored per home game, perfectly aligning with a two-goal output. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Brighton’s superior home form and defensive stability (1.1 conceded at home) while acknowledging Bournemouth’s relentless scoring streak in their last seven matches.
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