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Brighton & Hove Albion welcome Sunderland to the Amex Stadium on Saturday with both sides sitting in the thick of it after 16 Premier League matches. Sunderland’s return to the division has been anything but shy: seven wins already, 26 points on the board, and close enough to glance up at fourth-place Chelsea. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Bologna holds a significant technical advantage, sitting 14 points ahead of Verona. Verona’s record of just one win in 11 home games suggests they lack the stability to hold off a top-half side.
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Historical H2H data shows a pattern of 2-1 results in favor of Bologna. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, making a clean sheet for either side unlikely.
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Brighton vs Sunderland Predictions and Best Bets
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sunderland — bet365 Market Snapshot
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These are selected scorelines from the listed correct-score prices, shown with implied (from listed odds) percentages to illustrate how pricing varies by outcome.
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- Home tempo vs away threat: Brighton score 2 goals per home match, while Sunderland score 0.5 goals per away match and fail to score in 63% of away games.
- Shot volume clash: Brighton average 13.5 shots per match (1.57 xG for), while Sunderland average 9.31 shots per match (1.08 xG for), shaping a likely territory-versus-efficiency contest.
- Similar goal difference, different match feel: both sides sit at +2 after 16 games, but Brighton matches average 3 goals while Sunderland’s average 2.25, hinting at contrasting game states.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
Both sides sit at +2 for goal difference after 16 matches, but their games have felt different: Brighton’s tend to run hotter on the scoreboard than Sunderland’s.
With 25 scored and 23 conceded across 16 games, Brighton matches often carry more swing moments at both ends.
Sunderland have scored 19 and conceded 17 in 16 games, with fewer “wild” scorelines across the season overall.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets Rate
Clean-sheet percentage is a quick way to show how often a side completely keeps opponents out — useful context for how resilient each team can be within a game.
Brighton have 3 clean sheets in 16 matches, which can leave games open to late swings if the lead is slim.
Sunderland’s 5 clean sheets in 16 games underline a side that can protect the box and survive spells without the ball.
Chance Volume: Shots per League Match
Shot volume doesn’t guarantee goals, but it shows where a team spends time: Brighton generate more attempts, while Sunderland often live on fewer, sharper moments.
With 216 total shots across 16 matches, Brighton’s attacking phases often end with a finish — even if not every chance is clean.
Sunderland have taken 149 shots in 16 games, hinting at a game plan that can be more about timing than constant pressure.
Can Sunderland’s AFCON-hit squad hold their Premier League momentum at the Amex?
Brighton, meanwhile, are 10th with 23 points and a season that’s swung between sharp, front-foot afternoons and the sort of games that feel like you’re one loose pass away from your own momentum turning on you. The bigger story, though, is how this fixture lands in the middle of an AFCON spell that’s testing the depth and balance of both squads.
Sunderland, in particular, have earned the upside that comes with building a group featuring plenty of AFCON participation. Now comes the flip side: key figures stepping away, rhythm disrupted, and the next month asking different players to carry the load in a league that rarely offers a quiet weekend.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Brighton’s headline absences are suspensions for Diego Gomez and Lewis Dunk, with Carlos Baleba also away on AFCON duty. Add in Adam Webster and Solly March with knee issues, plus Stefanos Tzimas listed as out, and there’s a clear squeeze on options. Losing Dunk and Webster at the same time is the kind of double hit that can change how brave you feel defending space — especially if you’re asked to protect the box more often or manage direct running in behind.
Sunderland’s list is longer and, crucially, leans into positions that can tilt a team’s structure. Chemsdine Talbi, Habib Diarra, Noah Sadiki, Reinildo Mandava, Arthur Masuaku and Bertrand Traore are all away on AFCON duty. Luke O’Nien is suspended, and Aji Alese is out with a shoulder issue. That’s a lot of moving parts at once, and it suggests Sunderland may need to be more selective about when they press, when they sit in, and how they build attacks without the same personnel available to knit phases together.
There are still attacking touchpoints named in Sunderland’s squad numbers this season — Wilson Isidor leads their league scoring with four — but the bigger question is how the collective shape holds when so many pieces are missing at the same time.
How the Match Could Be Played
The broad outline practically writes itself from the season profiles. Brighton average 52% possession, while Sunderland sit at 42%. That gap doesn’t automatically decide anything, but it does hint at where each side feels most comfortable: Brighton circulating the ball and building pressure, Sunderland spending longer periods organised without it and choosing their moments to jump.
Brighton also fire off more attempts — 13.5 shots per match compared to Sunderland’s 9.31 — which suggests the hosts are more often the team trying to turn territory into volume. At home, Brighton’s scoring rate rises to two goals per match, and their shot volume ticks up too (14.13 per match). If that pattern holds, Sunderland’s out-of-possession work is going to be asked a big question: can they keep Brighton’s shot quality down even if the shot count climbs?
Sunderland’s own numbers point towards a more measured, often lower-tempo attacking rhythm away from home. They score 0.5 goals per away match and fail to score in 63% of away games. That matters tactically because it frames what “a good Sunderland spell” might look like at the Amex: not necessarily long stretches of dominance, but well-timed moments where they break out, win territory, and try to make fewer chances count for more.
This is where the team news bites. With multiple AFCON absences and a suspension, Sunderland may be less inclined to take risks in early build-up, particularly if the match state is level. Brighton, too, are without defensive options and a suspended midfielder, so there’s a case for the game becoming a battle of nerve: who can commit numbers forward without feeling exposed?
If Brighton can establish their usual rhythm, the key is likely to be the speed of their attacks once they enter the final third. They average 1.57 expected goals for per match, which reflects the quality of chances they tend to create, and they score every 58 minutes on average. Sunderland, though, concede only 1.06 goals per match and keep clean sheets in 31% of their games, so Brighton may find they need patience rather than constant forcing.
For Sunderland, the most obvious route is transition and efficiency. Their shots conversion rate is 13% overall, rising to 18% at home but dropping to 6% away. That split is a warning sign: they may not get many clear looks, so the weight of each chance increases. If they do get into good positions, they’ll want Isidor’s scoring touch — and the chance creation behind him — to land early enough to change the mood of the stadium.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
This fixture puts 7th against 10th: Sunderland on 26 points, Brighton on 23. Over 16 matches, Sunderland have scored 19 and conceded 17 (+2), while Brighton have scored 25 and conceded 23 (+2). Similar goal difference, different shape to it: Brighton’s matches average three goals, Sunderland’s 2.25, which suggests Brighton games trend more open while Sunderland games more often settle into tighter margins.
Brighton’s home record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 16 scored and 11 conceded. That scoring rate — two per home match — helps explain why they can look threatening even when games feel scrappy. Sunderland’s away record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with just 4 goals scored and 10 conceded. It’s a stark contrast to their home form (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses), and it sharpens the tactical point: Sunderland’s challenge is not just surviving Brighton’s pressure, but also finding enough threat to make Brighton think twice.
Look at chance creation. Brighton’s 13.5 shots per match is paired with 1.57 xG for per match, and they convert 12% of shots into goals. Sunderland take 9.31 shots per match for 1.08 xG for, converting 13% overall. In plain terms: Brighton generate more and better chances; Sunderland’s season has leaned more on making fewer attempts count — particularly at home — and on keeping opponents’ scoring down.
Timing could matter too. Brighton’s second-half record across the season is stronger than their first-half one (24 points in second halves versus 16 in first halves). Sunderland show a similar tilt (26 second-half points to 18 in first halves). If the first 45 minutes are cagey, that shared pattern hints at a game that can change gear late, especially if legs and concentration are tested by all the enforced changes.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One: how Brighton handle leadership and organisation without Lewis Dunk. His absence is two-fold: it removes a player with 16 appearances and five cards, but more importantly it takes away someone who’s been ever-present. With Adam Webster also out, the stress points become obvious: runs between defenders, second balls around the box, and the kind of scruffy moments where a clearance is worth as much as a clever pass.
Two: whether Sunderland can create enough on the road with so many AFCON departures. The away scoring number — 0.5 goals per match — sets a tough baseline, and failing to score in 63% of away games underlines how little margin there can be. If Sunderland are to get joy, they may need their best moments to be decisive: one sharp break, one well-worked move, one moment where Isidor or another scorer takes a half-chance and makes it stick.
Three: the swing of discipline and game management. Reinildo Mandava leads Sunderland’s squad for cards with six, and Brighton have multiple players on four or five, including Dunk and Diego Gomez (both suspended here). With both teams already dealing with suspensions, keeping heads and timing right in duels could decide whether either side ends up spending spells under pressure it didn’t plan for.
What could go wrong with this read? The biggest risk is assuming the match follows season-long averages when the personnel isn’t season-normal. Suspensions and AFCON absences can flip patterns: pressing triggers change, partnerships vanish, and a team that usually builds calmly might go longer more often. Fine margins, new combinations, and one early goal can quickly make the “script” irrelevant.
Best Bet for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sunderland
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Brighton & Hove Albion to win
Rationale
The most compelling reason for siding with a Brighton victory at the Amex Stadium lies in the unprecedented personnel crisis currently facing Sunderland. While both squads are impacted by the mid-season Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), the scale of disruption to the visitors’ core structure is far more severe. Sunderland lose no fewer than six significant squad members to the tournament, including defensive mainstays Reinildo Mandava and Arthur Masuaku, and influential midfielder Noah Sadiki—who has been ever-present this season. When paired with the suspension of Luke O’Nien and the injury to Aji Alese, Sunderland’s defensive and midfield depth is almost entirely hollowed out.
Furthermore, the statistical split between home and away performance for both clubs provides a clear directional signal. Brighton have established the Amex as a reliable source of points, losing just once in eight home matches this season. Their offensive output at home is particularly potent, averaging exactly two goals per match and consistently generating high shot volumes (14.13 per game). This contrasts sharply with Sunderland’s struggles on the road; the Black Cats have found the net only four times in eight away matches—an average of just 0.5 goals per game—and have failed to score in 63% of their away fixtures.
While Brighton deal with their own absences, including the suspension of captain Lewis Dunk and the AFCON departure of Carlos Baleba, their squad depth remains superior to a Sunderland side that is likely to field an experimental XI. Brighton’s season has been defined by their ability to maintain 52% possession and create high-quality chances (1.57 xG for), whereas Sunderland’s away model relies on defensive organization that is now compromised by the loss of four regular starters. Given Brighton’s scoring consistency at the Amex and Sunderland’s severe lack of available personnel and away goals, a home win is the most logically supported outcome.
What could go wrong
The absence of Lewis Dunk and Adam Webster simultaneously leaves Brighton without their primary defensive leadership and most experienced center-back pairing. If Sunderland can find a way to isolate Brighton’s makeshift defense in transition, Wilson Isidor—who remains available—has shown the clinical touch required to punish teams against the run of play. Additionally, the sheer number of changes for both sides could lead to a low-cohesion game where a single set-piece or individual error decides the result in favor of the visitors.
Correct score rationale
A 2-0 victory for the hosts is the most consistent scoreline reflecting the data. Brighton average exactly 2.0 goals per match at the Amex, while Sunderland have conceded 10 goals in their eight away trips, averaging 1.25 against per game. Most importantly, Sunderland’s offensive output away from home is anemic, failing to score in 63% of their travels. With the Black Cats missing several key creators and defenders, Brighton are likely to control the ball (averaging 52% possession) and prevent a depleted Sunderland attack from generating clear looks, leading to a comfortable shutout victory.
Correct score lean
2-0
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