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Can Brentford turn home swagger into a statement win as Forest chase a first-ever league double? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Brentford have taken 24 home points and score 2.00 goals per game at the Gtech. Forest’s wide attacking threat and 51% possession suggest they will find the net, but Brentford’s superior finishing and 35 total goals make a home win the most likely outcome.
Read Rationale ▾
Brentford average 2 goals per home match, while Forest have 21 goals in 22 games. Given Brentford’s home dominance and Forest’s persistent attacking volume through crosses, a narrow 2-1 victory for the hosts aligns with both teams’ scoring trends and defensive vulnerabilities.
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Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Predictions and Best Bets
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Brentford’s formidable home record at the Gtech makes them favorites, though Forest’s creative volume remains a threat.
Brentford average 2.00 goals at home, while Forest’s width creates frequent crossing opportunities.
- Home Turf Edge: Brentford have taken 24 home points in the league, are unbeaten in seven at the Gtech since October, and they’ve scored 2.00 goals on average in their recent home matches.
- Table Pressure: Brentford sit 7th on 33 points after 22 games, while Nottingham Forest are 17th on 22 — a 11-point gap that makes every moment feel like a six-pointer.
- Volume vs Output: Forest fire 13.16 shots per game and average 51% possession, but have only 21 league goals in 22 matches; Brentford take fewer shots (10.48) yet have 35 league goals.
Attacking Output: Total Season Goals
A comparison of total league goals scored across 22 fixtures shows a clear gap in clinical execution between the two sides.
Brentford have found the net frequently despite a lower overall shot volume, highlighting their efficiency in front of goal.
Forest average more shots per game (13.16) but have struggled to convert that pressure into a higher goal tally.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Game
While one team scores more, the other generates more opportunities, illustrating the different tactical approaches to the final third.
Brentford’s direct style focuses on high-quality chances rather than purely the quantity of attempts.
Forest utilize width and high attack volumes, leading to a higher frequency of efforts on the opposition goal.
Sunday at the Gtech Community Stadium brings a fixture with edge, pressure and a very clear target on both sides. Keith Andrews has Brentford riding a surge built on ruthless home momentum, but that Chelsea defeat — 2-0 — snapped their 2026 start and nudged them down to seventh in a tight pack.
For Sean Dyche and Nottingham Forest, the mood is different: a draining 1-0 Europa League loss to Braga and a league position that screams urgency. Yet Forest arrive with an extra carrot — they’re chasing a first-ever Premier League double over Brentford after winning 3-1 in August.
Kick-off is at 14:00. Expect noise, pace, and a game that swings on who imposes their preferred rhythm first.
Team News & Lineups
Brentford absences
- P. Dasilva (knee surgery) — out until 21/02/2026
- A. Milambo (cruciate ligament tear) — out until 31/07/2026
- S. van den Berg (knock) — out until 31/01/2026
- F. Carvalho (cruciate ligament tear) — out until 31/08/2026
Nottingham Forest absences
- None listed.
Brentford probable XI
Kelleher; Kayode, Collins, Ajer, Henry; Janelt, Yarmoliuk; Ouattara, Damsgaard, Schade; Thiago
Nottingham Forest probable XI
Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams; Sangare, Anderson; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Jesus
Lineup implications
- Brentford missing Sepp van den Berg removes an aerially-involved defender (4.2 aerials won per game), and that matters against a Forest side that crosses often and plays with width.
- Forest look set to load creators behind the striker — Morgan Gibbs-White, Omari Hutchinson, Callum Hudson-Odoi — which puts huge stress on Brentford’s wide defending, an area they’ve struggled with.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Brentford | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 17th |
| Points (GP) | 33 (22) | 22 (22) |
| Goals For / Against | 35 / 30 | 21 / 34 |
| Shots per game | 10.48 | 13.16 |
| Possession | 47% | 51% |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 84% |
| Clean sheets (all matches listed) | 8 | 7 |
| Corners per game | 4.74 | 5.13 |
| Yellow cards per game | 1.7 | 1.74 |
What it suggests
Forest should see more of the ball and rack up territory through volume — shots, attacks, dangerous attacks — but Brentford are the sharper finisher in this matchup, with 35 league goals from lower shot volume. If the game becomes a pure chance-trading contest, Brentford’s ability to punish looks like the cleaner route to goals. If Forest can slow transitions and keep the ball in Brentford’s half, they give themselves a platform — but they still need a cutting edge that hasn’t consistently appeared in the league.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Brentford’s route: direct, central, and vicious on the break
Brentford don’t want a slow game. They’re built to turn moments into momentum: long balls, attacks through the middle, and a front line that can finish. The headline is Igor Thiago — 16 league goals with a 7.16 rating — supported by runners like Kevin Schade (6 goals, 3 assists) and the creative touch of Mikkel Damsgaard.
Here’s the key: Forest have a soft spot for defending counter attacks, plus they’re vulnerable to defending set pieces and can be hit by individual errors. That’s the exact cocktail Brentford thrive on at home. If Janelt and Yarmoliuk win second balls and fire it forward early, Brentford can turn Forest’s advanced shape into open grass.
Forest’s route: wide pressure, sustained attacks, and pinning Brentford back
Forest want width and territory. They attempt crosses often, attack down the left, and spend time in the opposition half. The numbers back it: 2951 total attacks (95.19 per game) and 1582 dangerous attacks (51.03 per game) sit above Brentford’s totals.
The problem is the last touch. Forest’s league return is 21 goals — and they’re rated weak at finishing chances. That means Gibbs-White becomes the hinge: 5 league goals, a constant shooter (2 shots per game), and the one who can turn a half-chance into a proper chance. Hudson-Odoi brings pace and directness, while Elliot Anderson (rating 7.03) adds control and ball security.
Where it tilts: the wings, the long shots, and the first goal
Both teams show a weakness defending against long shots. That’s a green light for midfielders and edge-of-box shooters to test keepers early, especially if the penalty area gets crowded.
But the biggest tactical stress point is wide. Brentford are very weak at defending against attacks down the wings, while Forest are strong attacking down the wings and play with width. That’s the clash that can define the match: can Brentford’s full-backs hold up when Forest pin them back and force low balls across the box?
Flip it, and Forest’s own weakness against counters means their full-backs can’t get sloppy. If they over-commit, Brentford will go straight through the middle and ask Forest’s centre-backs to turn and sprint — exactly the scenario Thiago loves.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces: Forest struggle defending set pieces, and Brentford are strong at them — a dead-ball swing could flip the mood in seconds.
- First goal timing: Brentford’s first goal event time sits around 40’, Forest around 38’ — the match may simmer, then explode just before the break.
- Discipline and duels: Forest commit 11.23 fouls per game and Brentford 10.22 — expect plenty of stoppages, especially if Brentford’s counters force “take one for the team” tackles.
- Wide overloads: If Forest consistently create 2v1s out wide, Brentford’s biggest defensive weakness gets dragged into the spotlight.
What could go wrong?
Brentford’s big risk is letting Forest settle into a rhythm in their half — crosses, second balls, repeat pressure — because Brentford’s possession is lower (47%) and they can look vulnerable when asked to defend wide areas for long spells. Forest’s risk is equally sharp: push too high, lose one duel, and Brentford’s counter-punch arrives fast — and with Thiago’s finishing, those moments don’t need to be frequent to hurt.
Best Bet for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Can Brentford’s Home Fortress Withstand the Forest Cross-Barrage?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | Brentford 35 goals; Forest 21 goals | Brentford Win |
| Efficiency | Brentford 10.4 shots/gm; Forest 13.1 | Back Clinical Home Side |
| Home Form | Brentford unbeaten in 7 at home | Home Win |
| Defense | Brentford 30 conceded; Forest 34 | Both Teams to Score |
Brentford to Win & Both Teams to Score
Brentford are a formidable force at the Gtech Community Stadium, having secured 24 points on home soil this season. They enter this fixture on a seven-match unbeaten streak at home dating back to October. During this run, they have maintained a high level of offensive output, averaging 2.00 goals per game. Their attacking efficiency is the defining factor in this matchup; while they take fewer shots than Nottingham Forest (10.48 vs 13.16), they have converted those chances into 35 league goals compared to Forest’s 21.
Nottingham Forest represent a specific tactical challenge for the Bees. Forest are strong at attacking down the wings and utilize significant width, averaging 51.03 dangerous attacks per game. This aligns directly with Brentford’s primary defensive weakness: defending against wide attacks. With creators like Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi, Forest have the volume of territory and crosses to breach a Brentford defense that has conceded 30 goals this campaign.
The clinical nature of Igor Thiago, who holds 16 league goals, ensures Brentford can punish Forest on the counter-attack. Forest are vulnerable to transitions and set pieces, two areas where Brentford excel. While Forest’s high possession and wide pressure should result in a goal, their finishing rate is rated weak, making it unlikely they can outscore the hosts.
The combination of Brentford’s ruthless home finishing and Forest’s ability to exploit the Bees’ wide defensive lapses points toward a home victory where both sides find the net. Brentford’s ability to turn low shot volume into high goal output is the statistical edge required to secure all three points.
What could go wrong?
Brentford are missing Sepp van den Berg, which reduces their aerial dominance against a Forest side that relies heavily on crosses. If Forest can convert their superior shot volume and territory into goals rather than just pressure, Brentford’s lower possession (47%) may leave them unable to regain control of the game.
Correct Score Lean
Brentford 2-1 Nottingham Forest
This scoreline reflects the statistical disparity between the two sides’ finishing abilities. Brentford consistently find the net twice in their home fixtures, supported by the league-leading form of Igor Thiago. Nottingham Forest average nearly 100 total attacks per game and possess high creative output through Gibbs-White, which is sufficient to exploit Brentford’s defensive struggles against wide play. However, Forest’s lack of a consistent clinical edge in the league suggests they will fall short of a second goal, resulting in a narrow victory for the home side.
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