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Estrela Amadora have a very clear incentive at Estadio Jose Gomes on Saturday: stretch the gap between themselves and the Primeira Liga trapdoor. Sitting 14th, the Tricolores are only two points above the relegation play-off place, so there’s no room for coasting — not when every scruffy home point can feel like oxygen. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Ipswich are strong favorites (3rd vs 22nd) and score freely (40 goals). Oxford’s away form is dismal (4 wins in 37). The tactical mismatch of Ipswich’s through balls vs Oxford’s offside trap, plus Oxford’s weakness at set pieces, suggests goals. Ipswich winning 3-0 or 3-1 covers this comfortably.
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Ipswich dominate possession and chance creation, making three goals likely against a relegation-threatened defense. However, Ipswich are prone to individual errors and Oxford have attackers like Lankshear and Placheta who can punish complacency.
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Estrela Amadora vs Moreirense Predictions and Best Bets
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- Schettine’s finishing versus Estrela’s defensive workload: Guilherme Schettine Guimarães has 8 league goals, while Estrela Amadora have conceded 22 in 14 matches, an average of 1.57 per game.
- Dinis Pinto is Moreirense’s main supply line: he has 6 assists this season, with Moreirense scoring 21 goals overall — a strong hint that chances often flow from his side.
- Estrela’s output is shared but anchored by one name: Sidny Lopes Cabral has 5 goals and 3 assists, with João Diogo Alves Rodrigues adding 4 goals, shaping much of Estrela’s attacking edge.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
Both sides have played in open-feeling matches this season, and the total-goals averages show how quickly these games can tilt into end-to-end spells.
With 17 scored and 22 conceded in 14 games, their matches often hinge on which side handles the next transition better.
Moreirense games have produced 45 total goals across 14 fixtures (21 for, 24 against), which keeps scorelines and momentum shifts in play.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets are a blunt measure, but they capture how often a side manages a full match without a single costly lapse.
The season line shows 21% clean sheets, which explains why protecting a lead can feel like a full-time job.
Moreirense also sit at 21% clean sheets, matching a campaign where they’ve scored 21 but conceded 24.
Chance Volume: Shots per Match
Shot averages don’t guarantee goals, but they help explain where pressure is coming from — and which side tends to spend longer in the final third.
With 3.79 shots on target per match, their best spells usually come when they can keep the ball in advanced areas and recycle attacks.
Their 16% conversion rate shows they’ve made fewer shots count, even while conceding 1.71 goals per match overall.
Can Estrela Amadora turn home urgency into control against Moreirense’s goal threat?
Moreirense arrive with a very different kind of pressure. They’ve slipped to eighth in the standings and, in the blunt language of a season table, that’s still a healthy position. But the mood music is less cheerful: the visitors are described as out of sorts, and the numbers underline a side that has been entertaining without always being comfortable, especially in games that open up.
Put it together and you’ve got a match that can swing on details. Estrela’s need is obvious, but so is the opportunity: a Moreirense side that can score, can concede, and can leave the door ajar in key moments. The question is whether Estrela can turn their urgency into control — and whether Moreirense can find the sharpness that has them eighth rather than drifting into another loose afternoon.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Estrela Amadora’s possible XI lists Ribeiro in goal behind Patrick, Otavio and Schappo, with Stoica, Moreira, Ngom and S Cabral in the middle band, and a front three of Sola, Kikas and Marcus.
That selection reads like a team built to get bodies around the ball and then break with purpose. With Stoica, Moreira and Ngom all named in that midfield mix, Estrela can pack central areas and still have runners to spring forward. The presence of S Cabral in the same band hints at a side that wants width and delivery, while Kikas sits as the obvious reference point to bring attacks to life.
Moreirense’s possible line-up has Ferreira in goal, a back four of Pinto, Marcelo, Maracas and Kiko, with Alan, Stjepanovic and Benny in midfield, and Travassos, Schettine and Araujo across the front.
There’s a natural balance to that. Alan and Stjepanovic suggest a midfield with bite and rhythm, while Schettine is the headline name in the final third — and not just because he’s listed centrally. With wide options in Travassos and Araujo, Moreirense have the shape to stretch Estrela’s back line and ask uncomfortable questions of the spaces either side of Otavio and Schappo.
How the Match Could Be Played
The first tactical theme feels like territory versus timing. Estrela, at home, don’t need to play a perfect, glossy brand of football; they need phases of control that stop the match becoming a track meet. With Ribeiro behind a three-man defensive unit, the temptation will be to keep the ball moving safely and use the midfield line to lock the centre.
If Estrela can get Stoica and Moreira on the ball in pockets, the obvious next step is to push play into the channels for S Cabral and invite a cross-or-cutback moment. That’s where Kikas matters: he gives Estrela a target for early balls and a focal point when moves get messy. Marcus and Sola then become the chaos agents, attacking the second phase — loose clearances, ricochets, and those awkward defensive resets where concentration slips.
Moreirense, though, look like a side that can play through the middle and still threaten quickly. With Pinto at right-back and Kiko on the other side, they’ve got the personnel to advance full-backs and ask Estrela’s wide midfielders to make a choice: track runners deep, or hold position to protect the centre. Either decision creates a trade-off. Track too much and gaps appear around the edge of the box; stay narrow and you risk being pinned back and crossed on.
The key duel zones are likely to be just outside Estrela’s defensive line and the inside channels that feed Schettine. If Moreirense can land passes into that space, Estrela’s three defenders are forced into uncomfortable questions: step out and leave room behind, or hold and allow shots and combinations at the top of the area. The presence of Alan and Benny suggests Moreirense can keep arriving into those zones, which is often how “out of sorts” sides suddenly look very sharp — one clean connection, one runner untracked, and the whole tone changes.
Without the ball, Estrela’s best route to control is likely to be making Moreirense build wide and then compressing the second ball. That means Ngom becomes important: win duels, tidy up, and stop transition chains before they start. Moreirense, for their part, will fancy moments where they can turn defence into attack quickly, using Travassos and Araujo to carry the play away from pressure and into space.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league table sets the baseline: Estrela are 14th with 14 points from 14 matches, while Moreirense are eighth with 20 points from 14. That matters because it frames the kind of match each side can accept. Estrela’s margin for error is slim; Moreirense’s position is stronger, but the recent wobble described in the build-up makes the next performance feel significant.
The goals profile hints at why this could be lively. Estrela have scored 17 and conceded 22 in 14 matches, which works out at 1.21 scored per game and 1.57 conceded. That combination points to a team that can make chances but rarely shuts the door fully — so if they grab a lead, the match may still have another twist in it.
Moreirense’s numbers are even more open. They’ve scored 21 and conceded 24, with 1.50 scored per match and 1.71 conceded. In plain terms, they’re a side that tends to be involved in goal action at both ends, which can be a blessing when you need a spark — and a curse when you need a clean sheet.
The expected goals figures strengthen the same idea. Estrela’s xG for is 1.24 per match and xG against 1.43, while Moreirense sit at 1.05 xG for and 1.57 xG against. That suggests Estrela are creating a little more than Moreirense in chance quality, but both sides are allowing opponents a decent platform. It’s not hard to see why game states could flip quickly here.
Individual end-product is a storyline too. For Estrela, Sidny Lopes Cabral leads their scoring with 5 goals and also tops assists with 3, while João Diogo Alves Rodrigues has 4 goals and Stoica and Marcus have 2 goals each. Moreirense have a clear spearhead in Guilherme Schettine Guimarães, who has 8 goals, and a major chance-creation outlet in Dinis Pinto with 6 assists.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment that can define this match is what happens when Estrela get the ball wide. If S Cabral can deliver early and often, Kikas becomes the obvious trigger for everything: attacks become simpler, second balls become winnable, and the crowd has something to roar at. But if Moreirense’s back line — Marcelo and Maracas in particular — can deal with the first contact, they can turn Estrela’s most direct weapon into a source of transition chances the other way.
Another swing point is the creative influence of Dinis Pinto. Six assists across 14 matches tells you he’s not just a defender staying at home; he’s producing final actions. If Estrela allow him time to look up and choose his pass, Schettine doesn’t need many invitations. At the other end, Estrela’s attacking output is more spread, but the double role of Lopes Cabral as a scorer and creator hints at how important he is when matches get tight and someone needs to make the decisive play.
Discipline could also tilt momentum. Estrela’s list of most cards includes Paulo Daniel Valente Moreira, Schappo and Ngom, all on 4, while Moreirense’s Maracás sits on 6, with Alan de Souza Guimarães and Marcelo dos Santos Ferreira on 5. When key midfield and defensive figures are regulars in the book, the second half can become a game of caution — and that changes how hard teams press, tackle, and defend counter-attacks.
What could go wrong with this read? Football has a habit of laughing at tidy logic. An early goal can tear up any plan about control and patience, and both sides have profiles that suggest games can open up. A scrappy deflection, a moment of poor marking, or one clinical finish can change the whole tactical texture — and once the match becomes emotional, structure tends to follow rather than lead.
Best Bet for Estrela Amadora vs Moreirense
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Both Teams To Score (Yes)
Based on the statistical profiles of both teams, the most logical outcome is for both sides to find the back of the net. Estrela Amadora enters this fixture with a clear defensive vulnerability, having conceded 22 goals in their opening 14 matches—an average of 1.57 per game. Despite their 14th-place standing, they have remained relatively productive in the final third, scoring 17 times (1.21 per match). This scoring trend is particularly evident at home, where they have managed to find the net in key fixtures, including their recent 3-1 win over AVS and an entertaining 3-3 draw with Nacional. Their attacking output is anchored by Sidny Lopes Cabral, who leads the team with five goals and three assists, ensuring they have the individual quality to exploit a Moreirense defense that has struggled for consistency.
Moreirense, while sitting comfortably in eighth, possesses a statistical profile that almost mirrors their opponents in terms of openness. They have scored 21 goals and conceded 24 across 14 matches, averaging 1.50 scored and 1.71 conceded per outing. They are currently described as “out of sorts” after a run of four games without a win, a period during which they conceded 11 goals. However, their attacking threat remains potent through Guilherme Schettine, who has already netted eight times this season. Furthermore, the expected goals (xG) data supports a high-action game; Estrela allows an xGA of 1.43 per match, while Moreirense’s xGA is even higher at 1.57. With both sides consistently creating and conceding chances of significant quality, and with both teams possessing clinical primary scorers, a clean sheet for either side appears unlikely in this matchup.
What could go wrong The primary risk to this selection is a tactical stalemate where both managers prioritize defensive solidity to snap their respective poor runs of form. If Estrela chooses to sit deep in a compact low block to protect their narrow lead over the relegation zone, and Moreirense fails to find a rhythm in the final third, the game could descend into a cagey midfield battle with few clear-cut opportunities.
Correct score lean
2-1
Rationale
A 2-1 victory for Estrela Amadora aligns with their urgent need for points to distance themselves from the relegation play-off spot. Playing at home, the Tricolores have shown they can capitalize on the defensive lapses of mid-table sides, as seen in their previous 2-1 victory over Moreirense last season. Moreirense’s recent defensive record—conceding 11 goals in four matches—suggests they are highly likely to surrender multiple goals. However, with Schettine in prolific form and Dinis Pinto providing constant service with six assists, the visitors have enough offensive quality to ensure they don’t leave empty-handed on the scoresheet.
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