England vs Croatia prediction, preview and team news: Three Lions target another Wembley win. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
England's recent Nations League form and dominant 7-0 win over Croatia support their victory. Croatia's defensive frailties and missing defenders increase England's scoring chances, while Croatia's consistent scoring record suggests they will find the net, making the combined win and both teams to score a logical pick. The absence of Guéhi may slightly weaken England's defence, increasing the chance of an away goal.
England's recent Nations League form and Croatia's defensive issues support a 3-1 home win. Croatia's consistent scoring record and England's attacking depth make this exact score plausible, though the market is narrow and sensitive to goal variations.
England welcome Croatia to Wembley on Thursday, November 12, knowing victory would keep the pressure on Spain ahead of Sunday’s decisive Nations League trip to Madrid.
England vs Croatia — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
England look stronger on recent form, while Croatia remain vulnerable after weaker results.
Croatia hold the stronger winning edge, while England still offer enough threat for BTTS.
England carry the stronger defensive profile, while Croatia remain vulnerable in the likely scoreline.
England and Croatia show similar overall levels, making execution more important than raw form.
Three Punchy Stats
- Seven-goal statement: England thrashed Croatia 7-0 in Rijeka, with Kane and Saka scoring twice each.
- Croatia’s defensive struggles: The visitors have suffered seven defeats in 11 internationals and conceded 14 goals during their recent Nations League campaign.
- Attacking resilience: Croatia have scored in 13 of their last 15 internationals and generated 1.39 xG despite losing 7-0 to England.
Scoring Rate Comparison
Recent attacking records for England and Croatia are shown below.
Clean Sheet Comparison
Recent defensive records for England and Croatia are shown below.
Thomas Tuchel’s side have won three of their four group matches, including a remarkable 7-0 demolition of Croatia in Rijeka last month. With the visitors struggling defensively and missing several important players, England will be confident of extending their winning run.
However, Croatia’s attacking record suggests another clean sheet is far from guaranteed, despite the hosts’ impressive defensive performances throughout the competition.
Where to watch England vs Croatia
England vs Croatia kicks off at 7:45 PM GMT on Thursday, November 12, at Wembley Stadium in London.
The match starts at 2:45 PM ET / 11:45 AM PT in North America.
ITV1 will broadcast the fixture in the UK. No broadcaster has been confirmed for the United States or Canada, so supporters should check local television listings closer to kick-off.
England vs Croatia: what’s at stake?
England sit second in their Nations League group with nine points, three behind an already-qualified Spain.
Tuchel’s team have recorded three victories and one defeat, with Spain responsible for the only two goals England have conceded in the competition.
The Three Lions beat Czechia 2-0 in Prague and 3-0 at Wembley before dismantling Croatia 7-0 away from home.
Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka both scored twice in Rijeka, while Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon and Morgan Rogers completed the rout. Kane’s opener was his 88th international goal.
Croatia, meanwhile, have endured a difficult campaign. Slaven Bilić took charge in October and inherited a side struggling for consistency, defensive organisation and results.
England’s immediate objective is straightforward: beat Croatia and take the group race into Sunday’s meeting with Spain.
England vs Croatia team news
England will be without Marc Guéhi after the defender suffered an injury while playing for Nottingham Forest. Dan Burn has been called up as his replacement.
Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended, although he remains with the squad for the Spain fixture.
Declan Rice and Djed Spence return after missing October’s internationals, while Ben White receives his first call-up since March. Jobe Bellingham and Josh King have earned their first senior selections.
Croatia face more substantial selection problems.
Andrej Kramarić is absent on health grounds, Marin Pongračić has a hamstring injury and Franjo Ivanović is recovering from a mild concussion.
Josip Šutalo has also withdrawn, with Niko Galešić replacing him, while Kristijan Jakić remains doubtful.
Captain Luka Modrić, who has made 206 international appearances, provides valuable experience in an otherwise disrupted squad.
England vs Croatia prediction
England’s attacking quality makes them strong favourites, particularly after scoring seven unanswered goals against these opponents in October.
Croatia have lost seven of their previous 11 internationals and conceded 14 goals across their recent Nations League campaign.
Anthony Gordon offers another significant threat. The winger has scored in four consecutive England appearances and contributed a goal and an assist in Rijeka.
Nevertheless, Croatia generated 1.39 expected goals during that heavy defeat and have scored in 13 of their last 15 internationals.
Those figures suggest Bilić’s side can create opportunities even when struggling defensively.
England’s superior attacking depth, Wembley advantage and stronger recent form should ultimately prove decisive.
Prediction: England 3-1 Croatia.
Other opportunities in this market
Match Result: This requires only picking the correct winner (England) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, removing the need for both teams to score. It covers all home-win scorelines (1-0, 2-0, 3-1) but typically trades at a shorter price than the combined market.
Over 2.5 Goals: This selection wins if the match contains at least three total goals in 90 minutes, regardless of the final result or which side scores them. It wins on a 3-0 England victory, a 2-1 away win or a 2-2 draw, offering a wider set of winning scorelines than an exact correct-score bet.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: England to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: England vs Croatia 3-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: England to win and both teams to score @ 7/4
England approach this fixture following three victories in four Nations League group matches, scoring heavily along the way. Thomas Tuchel’s side have already demonstrated their capacity to dismantle this specific opposition, delivering a 7-0 victory in Rijeka last month. That attacking volume is supported by individual consistency, with Anthony Gordon finding the net in four consecutive international appearances. Against a Croatia side that have conceded 14 goals across their recent Nations League campaign and suffered seven defeats in their last 11 internationals, the home side possess clear statistical evidence to support the match-winner element of this combined selection.
However, combining the England victory with Both Teams to Score requires the visitors to find the net. Despite shipping seven goals in the reverse fixture, Croatia still generated 1.39 expected goals during that heavy defeat, indicating an ability to create opportunities even when heavily outscored. Furthermore, Slaven Bilić’s side have registered a goal in 13 of their last 15 international fixtures, proving they can regularly trouble opposition defences.
While England have recorded clean sheets against Czechia, keeping another is complicated by defensive adjustments, with regular starter Marc Guéhi absent through injury. Croatia’s scoring sequence over a 15-match sample provides a solid basis for the away side to register at Wembley. The combination of England’s proven attacking superiority in this matchup and Croatia’s persistent habit of getting on the scoresheet makes the home win alongside Both Teams to Score a logical interpretation of the supplied numbers.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- England defeated Croatia 7-0 in the reverse fixture last month.
- Croatia have scored in 13 of their last 15 international matches.
- Croatia generated 1.39 expected goals even during their 7-0 defeat.
Risk Factor: England's clean sheet potential could negate the Both Teams to Score condition despite a home win.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Scored seven unanswered goals in the recent head-to-head, boosted by Gordon's scoring streak.
Conceded 14 goals across their Nations League campaign and missing key defenders.
⚔️ Pick 2: England vs Croatia 3-1 @ 10/1
The 3-1 scoreline requires England to score exactly three times while Croatia register exactly one goal in reply. The hosts’ ability to record multiple goals is firmly established by their recent Nations League performances. Thomas Tuchel’s side struck three times against Czechia at Wembley and managed seven in the reverse fixture against Croatia in Rijeka. The visitors arrive with severe defensive difficulties, having conceded 14 goals in this campaign and missing defensive personnel including Marin Pongračić and Josip Šutalo. Those absences against an England attack featuring Anthony Gordon—who has scored in four successive internationals—make another multiple-goal yield for the home side a realistic scenario.
On the other side of the scoreline, Croatia’s capacity to score exactly one goal is supported by their underlying attacking consistency. They have found the net in 13 of their previous 15 internationals. Even during their 7-0 collapse in October, they generated 1.39 expected goals, proving they can produce genuine scoring opportunities against this specific England setup. Furthermore, the hosts will be without regular defender Marc Guéhi, an absence that could marginally assist the visitors in finding a breakthrough.
While a 3-1 selection demands precision, the supplied numbers align with a comfortable home victory where the visitors still manage a solitary response. England’s 3-0 home win over Czechia sets a precedent for a three-goal output at Wembley, while Croatia’s consistent scoring record across 15 matches supplies the evidence for the away goal. An exact-score bet remains highly fragile to a single additional or missing goal, but the statistical intersection points firmly towards a high-scoring home victory.
Risk Factor: The exact 3-1 scoreline is fragile; extra goals or no away goal will cause a loss.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is England to win and BTTS recommended?
England's dominance and Croatia's frequent scoring support this combined market.
How does the Correct Score market settle?
The match must finish with the exact selected scoreline after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Does Anthony Gordon's form impact the predictions?
Gordon's scoring streak underpins expectations of England's multiple goals.
What if the match ends 1-1 for BTTS?
BTTS is met but England must win for the combined bet to succeed.
Can Croatia score after a heavy defeat?
Croatia generated 1.39 expected goals despite a 7-0 loss, showing scoring ability.
Will Guéhi’s absence weaken England's defence?
Guéhi's injury may increase chances of Croatia scoring at Wembley.
