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Can Toulouse turn their aerial edge into points as Nice chase a breakthrough at Stadium de Toulouse? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Nice have lost four straight away games and haven't won on the road in nine attempts. Toulouse’s aerial power and transition play are perfectly suited to exploit Nice's specific defensive weaknesses.
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Nice struggle to finish chances and are poor at defending counters. Toulouse are capable of scoring via set pieces and long shots while keeping a clean sheet against a low-confidence attack.
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Toulouse vs Nice Predictions and Best Bets
Toulouse vs Nice — bet365 Market Snapshot
Key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
While the odds are close, Nice’s dismal run of four consecutive away defeats makes Toulouse the clear pick at home.
Nice’s defensive leaks suggest a multi-goal victory for Toulouse is more probable than a narrow away result.
Toulouse have shipped 14 home goals, making Over 2.5 a factor despite historical low-scoring patterns between these sides.
- Home Goals Against: Toulouse have conceded 22 in Ligue 1, and 14 of those have come at home — with multiple goals shipped on four occasions at Stadium de Toulouse.
- Nice’s Away Trouble: Nice have taken just one win in their last nine away Ligue 1 matches, and arrive on the back of four straight away league defeats.
- Low-Scoring Pattern: The last three Ligue 1 meetings between these sides have finished with under 2.5 goals, and Toulouse have points in their last four clashes with Nice.
Defensive Stability: Season Goals Conceded
A comparison of total league goals shipped highlights the defensive challenges both teams face heading into this fixture.
While conceding 22 overall, 14 of those have come at home, showing a specific vulnerability at the Stadium de Toulouse.
Nice arrive with 30 goals conceded, the highest among the two, and a notable weakness defending counter-attacks.
Attacking Reliability: Total Season Goals
Both sides have struggled for consistent scoring, though Toulouse’s direct style yields slightly higher output.
Toulouse rely on physical superiority and long balls, averaging 11.9 shots per game to find their breakthroughs.
Despite dominating possession at 47.4%, Nice have often failed to turn their cleaner passing into goals.
Saturday evening at 18:00 brings a fixture that feels like a pressure test for both managers. Carles Martínez has Toulouse sitting eighth, but the year opened with a jolt — a 3-0 home defeat to Lens that exposed how uncomfortable this side can look when forced into long defensive spells.
Nice arrive 14th and searching for a spark. They’ve gone over two months without a normal-time win and recently had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Strasbourg. The mood is edgy, the margins tight, and the league table leaves little room for another flat performance.
This one has a clear theme: Toulouse want to impose themselves through duels, second balls and momentum. Nice want to play their way through pressure — and prove they can survive the moments that usually break them.
Team News & Lineups
Toulouse
- Injuries/Absences
- E. Correia da Silva (red card suspension, until 26.01.2026)
- Abu Francis (tibia and fibula fracture)
- Dayann Methalie (knee injury)
- Frank Magri (suspended)
Possible Starting XI
- Restes; McKenzie, Cresswell, Bakhouche; Sidibe, Sauer, Casseres, Donnum; Gboho, Messali; Hidalgo
Lineup Implication
- With Frank Magri suspended, Toulouse lose a forward with four league goals and a real aerial presence — the attacking shape leans even harder on Yann Gboho for punch and invention.
Nice
- Injuries/Absences
- None listed.
Possible Starting XI
- Dupe; Clauss, Bah, Mantsounga, Bard; Everton, Ndombele, Sanson; Cho, Wahi, Gouveia
Lineup Implication
- Nice have creators, but they’ve been weak finishing chances and very weak defending counter attacks — if they lose the ball in the wrong area, Toulouse will look to strike before Nice can reset.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Ligue 1) | Toulouse | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| League Position / Points | 8th / 23 | 14th / 18 |
| Matches Played | 17 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 24 | 20 |
| Goals Conceded | 22 | 30 |
| Shots per Game | 11.9 | 11.6 |
| Possession | 39.5% | 47.4% |
| Pass Accuracy | 80.2% | 84.1% |
| Clean Sheets (all comps list) | 6 | 2 |
Toulouse don’t chase the ball for fun — they accept less possession and try to win the game through physical superiority and direct attacking moments. Nice see more of the ball, pass it cleaner, but give up more and concede more often. That’s why this match could swing sharply: Toulouse can land big moments without dominating the ball, while Nice can dominate phases without killing the game.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Toulouse: Duels, Directness, and the Gboho Trigger
Toulouse’s blueprint is aggressive and unapologetic. They take plenty of shots, use long balls, cross often, and are very strong in aerial duels. That matters here because Nice are weak defending set pieces and very weak defending long shots — two areas Toulouse can target with minimal build-up.
Watch Charlie Cresswell closely. He’s not just a defender; he’s a leader in both boxes with three goals, three man of the match awards, and a huge 4.4 aerials won per match. Add in Djibril Sidibé (two goals, three assists) delivering from wide areas, and Toulouse can make Nice defend ugly situations again and again.
With Frank Magri out, the attacking load shifts. Yann Gboho becomes the fuse — five goals, one assist, and the dribbling threat that turns scraps into chances. If Toulouse can get him receiving between the lines, Nice’s weakness against skillful players becomes a problem.
Nice: Through Balls and Wide Threat — But Can They Protect Themselves?
Nice are at their best when they thread it. They’re very strong creating chances using through balls and strong attacking down the wings. Jonathan Clauss (one goal, two assists, 7.05 rating) is a key outlet, while Mohamed-Ali Cho and Tiago Gouveia stretch the pitch.
The issue is the trade-off. Nice are weak protecting the lead and very weak defending counter attacks. That’s dangerous against a Toulouse side that are very strong coming back from losing positions and thrive on momentum swings. If Nice commit bodies forward and lose shape, Toulouse will go straight through them — not with pretty possession, but with quick, ruthless actions.
Game State: Who Stays Calm When It Gets Messy?
Toulouse were forced into a deep defensive shell after going down to 10 men recently, and it didn’t suit them. They don’t want that again. Nice, meanwhile, can’t afford to gift set pieces or defend the wings badly — both are listed weaknesses, and Toulouse will happily play a match that turns into repeated physical battles.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces into the mixer: Toulouse’s aerial power versus Nice’s set-piece defending is a loud, obvious pressure point.
- Transitions after turnovers: Nice’s counter-defending is fragile; Toulouse will try to win it and go early into space.
- Long shots and second balls: Nice are vulnerable from distance, and Toulouse love chaos around the edge of the area.
What could go wrong?
If Toulouse chase the game too directly without Magri’s presence, attacks can become predictable and feed Nice counters. If Nice dominate the ball but waste chances — a recurring issue — they risk one scrappy Toulouse spell flipping the whole night on its head.
Best Bet for Toulouse vs Nice
Can Toulouse make home advantage count against a traveling Nice side in freefall?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Away Form | Nice: 0 wins in 9 away; 4 straight losses | Back Toulouse |
| Defense | Nice: 30 goals conceded; Toulouse: 22 | Over 1.5 Goals |
| Aerials | Toulouse: 4.4 won/gm (Cresswell); Nice: Weak | Toulouse to Score |
| Head-to-Head | Toulouse: Unbeaten in last 4 meetings | Toulouse Double Chance |
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Toulouse to Win
Toulouse enter this fixture as the clear favorites to exploit a Nice side that has completely lost its way on the road. The visitors arrive at the Stadium de Toulouse having failed to win any of their last nine away matches in Ligue 1, suffering four consecutive defeats on their travels. This psychological and tactical slump makes them prime targets for a Toulouse side that sits six places higher in the league table.
The tactical matchup heavily favors the hosts. Toulouse are masters of the air, led by Charlie Cresswell, who dominates with 4.4 aerial duels won per game. This is a significant problem for Nice, who are explicitly weak at defending set pieces and high balls into the box. Even with the suspension of Frank Magri, Toulouse have the tools to hurt Nice. Yann Gboho provides the creative spark and finishing touch, having already netted five goals this season.
Furthermore, Nice struggle significantly with defensive transitions. They are very weak at defending counter-attacks, which plays directly into the hands of a Toulouse team that thrives on winning duels and launching direct, clinical attacks. While Nice may see more of the ball, their inability to protect leads and their tendency to concede long-range shots suggests they will eventually buckle under the physical pressure Toulouse applies.
What could go wrong? Toulouse have shown vulnerability at home, conceding 14 of their 22 league goals at the Stadium de Toulouse. If they fail to convert their aerial dominance into early goals, Nice’s ability to create chances through through-balls could allow them to snatch a result against the run of play, especially if Toulouse becomes frustrated and leaves gaps in behind.
Correct Score Lean
Toulouse 2-0 Nice
Toulouse have the defensive stability to shut out a Nice side that has been weak at finishing chances. Given Nice’s porous defense—conceding 30 goals in 17 games—and their specific struggles with counter-attacks and long shots, Toulouse are well-positioned to score in both halves. Charlie Cresswell’s threat on set pieces and Yann Gboho’s efficiency in transition should provide the two goals needed for a comfortable victory.
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