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Can Toulouse turn momentum into another step towards Europe against struggling Auxerre? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Toulouse are in peak form with four wins in their last five league games. Auxerre are winless away this season and have lost five of their last six matches overall. Given Toulouse’s 1.62 goals-per-game average and Auxerre’s recent away goal drought, a home win is the high-probability outcome.
Read Rationale ▾
Auxerre have failed to score in their last three away games, while Toulouse concede only 1.19 goals per game. A 2-0 scoreline aligns with Toulouse’s scoring average and Auxerre’s defensive vulnerability (1.55 conceded per game), offering a logical reflection of the current disparity between these two sides.
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Toulouse vs Auxerre Predictions and Best Bets
Toulouse vs Auxerre — bet365 Market Snapshot
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Current form and attacking metrics give Toulouse a significant edge at the Stadium de Toulouse as they chase European qualification.
Statistical trends highlight Toulouse’s superior scoring rate against an Auxerre side that has struggled away from home.
- Form Contrast: Toulouse have won four of their last five Ligue 1 matches, matching their total wins from the opening 14 fixtures and underlining a sharp upturn in momentum.
- Goals Gap: Toulouse average 1.62 goals scored per game, while Auxerre manage just 0.75, a disparity that shapes the attacking balance of this fixture.
- Away-Day Woes: Auxerre have failed to score in each of their last three Ligue 1 games and remain winless away this season, raising familiar survival concerns.
Attacking Reliability: Average Goals Scored
The disparity in scoring rates between the two sides shapes the attacking balance of this fixture.
Toulouse have won four of their last five matches, matching their total wins from the opening 14 fixtures.
Auxerre have failed to score in each of their last three Ligue 1 games and remain winless away this season.
Defensive Stability: Average Goals Conceded
Comparison of defensive records as Toulouse look to continue their sharp upturn in form.
The settled back three provides a foundation for the wing-backs to stretch the pitch on transitions.
A preference for a back five highlights Auxerre’s containment strategy, often resulting in high save volumes.
Sunday afternoon at the Stadium de Toulouse carries a clear edge. The hosts are chasing the European places with real purpose, while Auxerre arrive fighting to keep their heads above water near the bottom of the table. Kick-off comes at 16:15, with both sides well aware of what is riding on the next 90 minutes.
Toulouse sit eighth on 29 points, just two shy of the Conference League qualification spots. Confidence is flowing after a 2-0 win over Brest and a run of four victories in five league matches. Auxerre, by contrast, are 17th with 12 points and come off a narrow home defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, one of five losses in their last six league outings.
There is also unfinished business. Auxerre edged the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season, a result Toulouse will not have forgotten on their own pitch.
Team News & Lineups
Toulouse
- E. Correia da Silva – suspended (red card)
- A. Francis – out (tibia and fibula fracture)
- D. Methalie – out (knee injury)
- F. Magri – suspended
Probable XI:
Restes; McKenzie, Cresswell, Nicolaisen; Casseres, Vossah, Messalli, Sidibe; Donnum, Hidalgo, Gboho
Implication: The absence of Frank Magri puts greater attacking responsibility on Yann Gboho and Santiago Hidalgo, but the structure behind them remains settled.
Auxerre
- No additional suspensions listed beyond existing absences.
Probable XI:
Leon; Sy, Akpa, Diomande, Okoh, Mensah; El Azzouzi, Ahamada; Faivre, Sinayoko; Mara
Implication: A back five suggests containment first, but Auxerre’s recent scoring issues leave little margin for error going forward.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Toulouse | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 8th | 17th |
| Points | 29 | 12 |
| Goals Scored (avg) | 1.62 per game | 0.75 per game |
| Goals Conceded (avg) | 1.19 per game | 1.55 per game |
| Avg Shots per Game | 12.33 | 11.05 |
| Ball Possession | 42% | 44% |
The numbers point to a match where Toulouse create more and finish more efficiently. Auxerre see similar amounts of the ball, but their lower shot quality and scoring rate tell a harsher story.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Toulouse on the Front Foot
Under Carles Martínez, Toulouse have played with growing confidence. The back three allows the wing-backs, particularly Sidibe, to push high and stretch the pitch. That width feeds a steady stream of chances, reflected in their shot volume and strong recent scoring record at home.
In midfield, Casseres and Messalli look to move the ball quickly rather than dominate possession. Toulouse are comfortable letting opponents have spells on the ball before accelerating through the thirds, especially once the first goal arrives. Their average of 1.90 goals scored in recent home matches points to a side that grows in belief as games open up.
Auxerre’s Survival Mode
Christophe Pélissier is likely to prioritise shape and discipline. Auxerre’s back five narrows the central lanes and forces play wide, where they can defend crosses and slow the tempo. The problem has come at the other end. With just 14 goals scored all season, too many attacks break down before reaching dangerous areas.
Sinayoko and Faivre are tasked with carrying the threat on transitions, but Auxerre have struggled to turn those moments into shots on target. Their average of 3.65 goalkeeper saves per game also hints at sustained pressure they must absorb.
Where It Tilts
If Toulouse score first, the dynamic shifts sharply. Auxerre have failed to respond in recent matches when falling behind, and their lack of cutting edge becomes glaring. If Auxerre hold firm into the second half, frustration could creep in, but Toulouse’s patience and volume of chances suggest they will keep knocking.
Key Moments to Watch
- First Goal Timing: Toulouse tend to score later in matches, while Auxerre often concede after sustained pressure.
- Wide Areas: The duel between Toulouse’s wing-backs and Auxerre’s wide defenders could dictate territory.
- Discipline: Auxerre average more tackles and red cards, a risk against a side happy to draw fouls high up the pitch.
What could go wrong?
Toulouse’s home form has not been flawless, and an early missed chance could invite nerves. Auxerre will look to drag the game into scrappy phases and rely on a single moment to flip the script, just as they did earlier in the season.
Best Bet for Toulouse vs Auxerre
Can Martínez’s Side Translate Momentum Into a European Qualifying Spot?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Current Form | TOU: 4 wins in 5; AUX: 5 losses in 6 | Back Toulouse |
| Attack | TOU: 1.62 GPG; AUX: 0.75 GPG | TOU Over 1.5 |
| Away Record | AUX: 0 wins away; 0 goals in last 3 | Toulouse Win |
Toulouse to Win
The trajectory of these two clubs is currently moving in opposite directions. Toulouse have transformed their season by winning four of their last five matches, a run that has seen them match the total number of victories they achieved in the opening 14 fixtures of the campaign. This sharp upturn in momentum has placed them within two points of the European qualification spots, providing a level of motivation that should overwhelm a struggling visitor.
The disparity in attacking efficiency is the most significant factor in this matchup. Toulouse maintain a scoring average of 1.62 goals per game, while Auxerre manage just 0.75. This lack of cutting edge for the visitors is even more pronounced on their travels, as they have failed to score in each of their last three Ligue 1 matches. Without a reliable goal threat, Auxerre are forced to absorb sustained pressure, evidenced by their goalkeeper making an average of 3.65 saves per game.
Toulouse are particularly dangerous at the Stadium de Toulouse, where they average 1.90 goals in recent outings. Their tactical structure under Carles Martínez utilises wing-backs to stretch opponents, a strategy likely to exploit Auxerre’s defensive vulnerabilities. Auxerre concede 1.55 goals per game on average and remain winless away from home this season. These statistics indicate a team that lacks the resilience to withstand a side playing with the confidence and high shot volume that Toulouse currently produce.
Furthermore, Auxerre have lost five of their last six league games. This collapse in form suggests a side struggling for answers at the bottom of the table. While they won the reverse fixture earlier in the season, the Toulouse of February is a revitalised unit that creates 12.33 shots per match. The combination of home advantage, superior scoring rates, and Auxerre’s ongoing away-day woes makes a home victory the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong?
Auxerre’s primary path to a result is to replicate their performance from the reverse fixture, where they successfully frustrated Toulouse and secured a 1-0 win. If the visitors can maintain their back-five discipline deep into the second half and Toulouse suffer from uncharacteristic wastefulness in front of goal, the match could descend into a scrappy draw that halts the hosts’ European charge.
Correct Score Lean
Toulouse 2-0 Auxerre
A 2-0 scoreline reflects the statistical realities of both squads. Auxerre have proven incapable of scoring on the road recently, failing to hit the net in three consecutive away matches. Toulouse, meanwhile, average 1.62 goals per game and recently secured a 2-0 victory over Brest using a similar tactical blueprint. Given that Auxerre concede over 1.5 goals per game and Toulouse are clinical when presented with high shot volumes, a comfortable two-goal margin for the hosts is the most probable result at the Stadium de Toulouse.
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