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Can Nantes finally break their Beaujoire curse, or will Paris FC’s possession game turn this relegation scrap on its head? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Nantes are winless in seven at home and allow more shots than any other team. Paris FC’s possession and scoring record on the road provide high value.
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Nantes concede nearly two goals per game at home, while both sides are weak on set pieces and individual errors, pointing to a high-scoring visitor win.
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Nantes vs Paris FC Predictions and Best Bets
Nantes vs Paris FC — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot showing illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on match data.
Illustrative layout showing match outcomes. Nantes struggle at home while Paris FC show consistent threat.
Both defenses show vulnerabilities, with pricing reflecting the likelihood of both teams scoring.
- Home Pain vs Away Poise: Nantes are winless in seven at Stade de la Beaujoire (D2 L5) and have collected just five points from eight home league matches.
- Ball and Territory Gap: Nantes average 42.5% possession and 10.1 shots per game, while Paris FC sit at 53.6% possession and 12.1 shots.
- Fine Margins at the Bottom: Nantes are 16th on 14 points after 17 matches, just two points behind 15th-placed Paris FC on 16.
Tactical Identity: Control vs Transition
Paris FC rely on high possession to dictate play, while Nantes operate effectively with less of the ball.
With a pass accuracy of 86.5%, the visitors look to pin opponents back through sustained pressure.
Nantes are comfortable defending deep and launching direct attacks, averaging 10.1 shots per match.
Defensive Metrics: Resistance and Clean Sheets
A comparison of clean sheets recorded across the 17 league matches played so far.
Despite 31 goals conceded, they have managed to shut out opponents in nearly 30% of their fixtures.
A winless run of seven at the Beaujoire reflects the difficulty in maintaining defensive discipline.
This is the kind of fixture that can change the temperature of a whole season. Nantes and Paris FC come to Stade de la Beaujoire with the same fear in their stomachs: get dragged under, or fight your way clear.
Nantes arrive bruised after late heartbreak in the Coupe de France, but they started 2026 with a proper statement — a 2-0 win at Marseille, with goals from Fabien Centonze and Rémy Cabella. The problem is what happens at home. Beaujoire has turned sour, and it’s been that way since late August.
Paris FC, coached by Stéphane Gilli, have their own story of belief. They’ve just landed a standout Coupe de France success over the current holders, and they sit just above the line. This is a relegation scrap with sharp edges.
Kick-off is 14:15.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Nantes: I. Kpene Ganago (unknown injury).
- Paris FC: No injuries or suspensions listed.
Nantes possible starting lineup
- Lopes; Amian, Tati, Mwanga, Machado; Leroux, Lepanant, Abline, Cabella, Guirassy; El Arabi
Paris FC possible starting lineup
- Trapp; Traore, Mbow, Otavio, De Smet; Kebbal, Marchetti, Lopez, Camara, Cafano; Krasso
What it means
- Nantes will try to land punches in transition. They’re very strong on counter-attacks, and the front four of Abline, Cabella, Guirassy and El Arabi gives them runners plus a finisher.
- Paris FC will want long spells on the ball, but their soft spots are loud: very weak defending set pieces, very weak avoiding individual errors, and very weak defending through-ball attacks — exactly the kind of openings Nantes need.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Nantes | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 15th |
| Points | 14 | 16 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 22 |
| Shots per game | 10.1 | 12.1 |
| Possession | 42.5% | 53.6% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.9% | 86.5% |
| Clean sheets (overall matches block) | 3 | 5 |
| Goals conceded (standings GA) | 28 | 31 |
The shape of the match is written right there: Paris FC should boss possession and pass their way into Nantes territory. Nantes, though, are built to suffer without the ball and strike fast — and that’s where this gets tense.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Nantes: sit deep, go direct, hit the gaps
Ahmed Kantari doesn’t need Nantes to win the ball high to hurt you. Their identity is clear: long balls, playing in their own half, then exploding into counters. That makes sense with their numbers — low possession, modest shot volume — but it can still be lethal when it’s timed well.
The danger is the defensive trade-off. Nantes are very weak defending counter-attacks and very weak defending down the wings, which is a nasty combination against a side that are strong on counters and strong attacking wide. If Nantes commit too many bodies forward on a break and lose it cheaply, the return punch could be brutal.
Nantes also have known fragility on dead balls. They’re weak defending set pieces, and games at the bottom often swing on the simplest moments: a corner, a second ball, one blocked shot that falls kindly.
Paris FC: possession football with bite out wide
Paris FC want control. Their style points to possession football, and their numbers back it up: higher possession, higher pass accuracy, more shots, more dangerous attacks. If they pin Nantes back, they can turn the match into wave after wave.
The key man is Ilan Kebbal — 6 goals and 4 assists, a 7.24 rating, and a player who carries real creative weight. Around him, Maxime Lopez brings volume and delivery (3 assists), while Moses Simon adds a direct threat with 3 goals and 2 assists. That blend makes Paris FC awkward: they can work it patiently, then suddenly go sharp.
But they carry a huge “don’t do something silly” warning label. Very weak avoiding individual errors plus very weak defending set pieces is an invitation. If Paris FC gift Nantes a cheap chance, a home crowd that’s been starved of league joy could come alive quickly.
The defining duel: wings vs wings
Nantes are vulnerable out wide. Paris FC are strong down the wings. If Paris FC’s full-backs and wide men keep delivering, Nantes will spend long spells defending their own box. If Nantes can bait Paris FC forward and spring behind them, this becomes a breathless game of turnovers.
Key Moments to Watch
- First goal emotion: Nantes’ home form is brittle; conceding first could make it edgy quickly. Paris FC’s strength coming back from losing positions hints they won’t panic if it swings the other way.
- Set pieces at both ends: Nantes are weak defending them, Paris FC are very weak defending them — corners and wide free-kicks could be the loudest moments of the afternoon.
- Kebbal’s influence: If Kebbal gets time between the lines, Paris FC’s possession becomes purpose. If Nantes clamp him early, Paris FC can get sterile.
- Goalkeeper spotlight: Anthony Lopes has a 7.01 rating and three man-of-the-match awards; if Paris FC rack up pressure, he could be busy.
What could go wrong?
For Nantes, one overcommitted counter can turn into a concession the other way — and they’ve already shown defensive weaknesses against counters and wing attacks. For Paris FC, a single lapse is enough: individual errors and set-piece defending have been soft, and away days like this punish any loss of concentration.
Best Bet for Nantes vs Paris FC
Can Nantes snap their dismal home streak, or will Paris FC’s possession-heavy style exploit a fragile Beaujoire defense?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home/Away Form | NAN: winless in 7 at home; PFC: scored in 7 of 8 away | Paris FC Draw No Bet |
| Defensive Leak | NAN: 28 GA (1.6/gm); PFC: 31 GA (1.8/gm) | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Goal Patterns | Last 3 H2H saw 3+ goals & goals in 1st half | BTTS – Yes |
| Tactical Gap | PFC 53.6% possession vs NAN 42.5% | Paris FC Win |
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Paris FC Draw No Bet
Nantes are currently enduring a psychological block at the Stade de la Beaujoire. They have failed to win any of their last seven home matches, collecting a meager five points from a possible 24. While their recent 2-0 away win against Marseille showed flashes of quality, their inability to control games in front of their own fans remains a major red flag.
Paris FC arrive with a tactical profile that directly exploits Nantes’ specific weaknesses. The visitors average 53.6% possession and 12.1 shots per game, and they are particularly strong at attacking down the wings and executing through-ball attacks. Nantes are statistically very weak at defending both of these areas, suggesting that Ilan Kebbal and Moses Simon will find significant joy in the final third.
Furthermore, Paris FC have a high floor when playing away from home, having scored in seven of their last eight road trips. Nantes’ defense has already conceded 28 goals this season and averages nearly two goals conceded per home game. This creates a scenario where Paris FC are likely to outshoot and out-possess a Nantes side that is built to sit deep but lacks the defensive discipline to keep a clean sheet.
Given that Nantes have allowed the most goal attempts in the league this season (276), Paris FC’s superior shot volume and creative metrics make them the more reliable side. The “Draw No Bet” market provides essential cover for a potential stalemate while backing the team with the tactical edge to take all three points.
What could go wrong? Nantes are lethally effective on the counter-attack and could punish Paris FC’s tendency to commit individual errors. If the visitors dominate possession but fail to track runners like Matthis Abline or Rémy Cabella during transitions, Nantes could steal a result against the run of play.
Correct Score Lean
Nantes 1-2 Paris FC This scoreline reflects the statistical reality of both teams. Nantes average roughly one goal per game at home but concede 1.88. Paris FC’s away average of 1.11 goals scored, combined with Nantes’ league-high 16.2 shots allowed per match, suggests the visitors will find the net multiple times. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities on set pieces, and with both sides desperate for points in a relegation scrap, a cagey 0-0 is unlikely.
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