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Can Rennes Break the Curse at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Lille are dominant at home with five straight wins and hold a 12-match unbeaten league record against Rennes. However, Rennes are in excellent scoring form, led by nine-goal striker Esteban Le Paul, and Lille face defensive shortages due to suspensions and international call-ups. Both teams are statistically weak at protecting leads, pointing toward an open game where Lille's superior possession and home advantage should eventually prevail in a high-scoring affair.
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This scoreline reflects Lille’s status as favorites while acknowledging the scoring threat posed by the visitors. Lille have scored 33 goals this season and are particularly dangerous from set pieces, a known area of weakness for Rennes. With Rennes scoring freely in recent weeks but struggling to win on the road (only two wins in 11 away games), a narrow home victory where both sides contribute to the scoreline is the most statistically grounded outcome.
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Lille vs Rennes Predictions and Best Bets
Lille vs Rennes — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below is informational only. Any probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds (where available). 18+ GambleAware.
Lille’s strong home record and 12-match unbeaten streak against Rennes makes them the clear favorites in the match result market.
Low-margin results for the home side and the 1-1 draw are priced most competitively in the scoreline markets.
With both teams showcasing strong offensive form recently, markets reflect a high likelihood of both sides contributing to the scoreboard.
- Lille’s chance volume and output: After 16 Ligue 1 matches, Lille have 33 goals and average 14.6 shots per game, pointing to sustained pressure and repeated entries rather than relying on isolated moments.
- Rennes’ away puzzle: Rennes have won only 2 of their last 11 away Ligue 1 matches, even with recent away wins listed, suggesting they can stay in games on the road without always turning it into three points.
- A fixture that tilts Lille: Lille haven’t been beaten by Rennes in their last 12 Ligue 1 meetings, a run that frames the psychological challenge for the visitors as well as the tactical one.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Both teams rank highly for creating opportunities, with Lille’s shot volume reflecting their dominant territorial approach.
Lille’s consistent pressure in the final third leads to a high frequency of attempts on goal.
Despite having lower possession, Rennes remain clinical and efficient in creating shot opportunities.
Technical Precision: Pass Success Rate
Technical security is a hallmark for both sides, ensuring high-quality build-up play.
Lille and Rennes share the same high level of passing efficiency, making them two of the most technically secure teams in the league.
Lille and Rennes kick off their league year with a Matchday 17 meeting at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, the first Ligue 1 outing of 2026 for both sides. There’s a tidy symmetry to it: fourth against sixth, 32 points against 27, and two teams who closed the previous year with plenty of momentum and plenty of goals in them.
Lille arrive with that familiar sense of control about them. The recent sequence is packed with wins, including a 4–0 in the Europa League against Dinamo Zagreb, a pair of narrow 1–0 league victories over Le Havre and Marseille, and a breathless 4–3 away win at Auxerre. Rennes, meanwhile, have also been stacking results: a 4–1 at home to Monaco, away wins at Paris FC and Metz, and a 3–1 home victory over Brest, with only a heavy 5–0 loss at Paris Saint-Germain interrupting the run.
This is also a fixture Lille have had the upper hand in for a while. In Ligue 1, they haven’t been beaten by Rennes in their last 12 meetings, and the broader recent ledger is similarly kind to the hosts. That doesn’t decide Saturday on its own, but it does shape the mood: Rennes come to a ground where Lille tend to find solutions, and where fine details have often separated the two.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Lille’s possible starting XI is listed as: Özer; Meunier, Fernandes, Santos, Santos, Verdonk; Bouaddi, Bentaleb; Mbappé, Haraldsson, Sahraoui; Giroud. The names point towards a side built to play in the opposition’s half, with Meunier and Verdonk as the full-back options, Bouaddi and Bentaleb as the central platform, and a front line that mixes craft with a clear reference point in Giroud. Haraldsson’s presence in the line between midfield and attack is particularly important for how Lille connect their phases, while Sahraoui and Mbappé suggest pace and direct running either side of him.
There is a notable complication: Romain Perraud is listed as suspended (red card) until 04.01.2026, and Chancel Mbemba Mangulu is listed as suspended. That matters for balance and for the defensive unit’s continuity, especially in a match where Rennes’ width is a stated feature of their style.
Rennes’ possible starting XI is listed as: Samba; Brassier, Rouault, Jacquet; Tamari, Cissé, Rongier, Camara, Frankowski; Embolo, Le Paul. That reads like a 3-5-2 structure, consistent with their listed formation summary (3-5-2 used 14 times). The shape naturally pushes responsibility onto the wing-backs, with Tamari and Frankowski providing the width, and the middle three offering a blend of circulation and bite: Rongier for control, Camara for all-action coverage, and Cissé as another central option. Up front, Embolo and Le Paul give Rennes two different ways to threaten: one to connect and turn play, one to finish moves and keep defenders honest.
With Brice Samba in goal and a back three including Jacquet and Rouault, Rennes have the platform to invite pressure at times and then spring out wide. But they also carry vulnerabilities that are clearly flagged: defending set pieces, avoiding individual errors, and protecting the lead are all listed as weaknesses, with “protecting the lead” marked as very weak. Against a Lille side with strong attacking set pieces and strong defending set pieces, that contrast is hard to ignore.
How the Match Could Be Played
The clearest tactical picture here is Lille trying to own territory and Rennes trying to stretch the pitch.
Lille’s listed style leans into possession football, controlling the game in the opposition’s half, attempting through balls often, and attacking down the left. That combination suggests a plan built around pinning Rennes’ wing-backs deep, then using the half-spaces to slip runners in behind. If Haraldsson operates as the connector, the question becomes which Rennes midfielder steps out to meet him — and what space that opens elsewhere. Step out too aggressively and Lille’s wide players have lanes to attack the channels. Hold your line and Haraldsson gets time to face up and feed those through balls Lille like to attempt.
Giroud’s inclusion gives Lille an obvious target to make that possession useful. It doesn’t need to be constant crossing for the sake of it; it can be measured: draw Rennes in, switch play, then deliver with purpose when the box is occupied. Rennes’ listed weakness defending set pieces also nudges Lille towards making dead balls matter, particularly with a forward who can attack deliveries and midfielders who can arrive to mop up second balls.
Rennes, for their part, are described as playing with width, attacking down the left, and taking long shots. A 3-5-2 can be perfect for that: win the ball, play early to a wing-back, and get runners beyond. Tamari and Frankowski are the obvious conduits, and the offside-trap note hints at a defence that tries to hold a high line at moments to compress the pitch. That can be brave, but it’s also a tightrope if Lille are already inclined to attempt through balls.
The most interesting zone could be the spaces outside Rennes’ wide centre-backs. If Lille attack down the left, they’ll be repeatedly asking questions of the right side of Rennes’ defensive unit: do the wing-back and wide centre-back pass runners on cleanly, or do they get dragged into two minds? Rennes are also flagged as weak at “defending against skillful players” and “defending against attacks down the wings”, which is exactly where Lille’s profile can bite if the rotations are sharp.
Out of possession, Lille’s “aggressive” tag and the note that “opponents play aggressively against them” points towards a match with plenty of duels, particularly in midfield. If Bouaddi and Bentaleb can squeeze Rennes’ central trio and force play wide early, Lille can then press traps near the touchline — and that’s where transitions begin. Rennes are listed as strong at “stealing the ball from the opposition”, though, so Lille’s build-up will need to be clean. This could become a contest of who can win the ball in advanced zones without gifting the other a broken-field chance.
And then there’s game state. Both teams have “protecting the lead” as a weakness, with Rennes’ marked very weak. That doesn’t mean a lead is doomed; it means the match may not settle just because someone goes in front. You can imagine momentum swinging: a spell of Lille pressure, then a Rennes break, then a set piece. The kind of night where the stadium noise rises and falls every five minutes.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league table framing is simple: Lille are fourth with 32 points; Rennes are sixth with 27.
Lille’s Ligue 1 output after 16 games is 33 goals, and they average 14.6 shots per game. That matters because it backs up the sense of a side that creates volume and sustains pressure; it’s not just one magic moment, it’s repeat attacks. Their possession figure in the league is listed at 56.0%, paired with an 84.8% pass success rate, which fits the idea of control in the opposition half and enough security on the ball to keep coming back for more.
Rennes, in Ligue 1, have 27 goals from 16 games and average 12.4 shots per game. Their possession is lower at 50.0%, yet their pass success is also listed at 84.8%, which suggests they can be accurate without necessarily dominating the ball. In a 3-5-2, that can look like measured build-up followed by faster, wider attacks — particularly if the wing-backs are released early.
Form snapshots add a bit of spice without needing grand conclusions. Over their last six matches, Lille are listed with five wins and one defeat, and Rennes show the same. Rennes’ away run shows two wins, three draws and one defeat across the most recent six away matches listed, and there’s also a trend note stating they have won only two of their last 11 away Ligue 1 matches. Put together, it hints at a Rennes side that can be hard to beat on the road, but not always able to turn that into maximum reward.
Finally, the head-to-head trend is blunt: Lille haven’t been beaten by Rennes in their last 12 Ligue 1 meetings. For Rennes, the challenge is psychological as much as tactical — to keep believing in their plan when the match gets tense.
Key “Moments” to Watch
A match like this often turns on a few repeating scenes.
One is the first wave of pressing. Lille’s aggressive edge versus Rennes’ strength at stealing the ball sets up a contest of nerve: who plays through pressure cleanly, and who blinks into a rushed pass? If Rennes’ midfield can win it and release Tamari or Frankowski early, they can turn Lille’s territorial game against them. If Lille win those second balls and keep Rennes penned in, it becomes a long night of defending the width and the box.
Another is how Rennes handle deliveries and dead balls. With Rennes flagged as weak defending set pieces and Lille rated strong attacking set pieces, any corner or wide free-kick can feel like a mini-penalty. Those moments test concentration, spacing, and the willingness to do the unglamorous work: block runs, win first contact, clear the second ball properly.
Watch, too, for the offside trap theme. Rennes are listed as playing it, and they’re also listed as weak at avoiding offside. That tension can show up in both directions: a defence stepping up in unison, and an attack mistiming runs. Against a Lille side that attempts through balls often, the margin between “caught” and “clean through” can be a single stride.
Then there are the individual threats in plain sight. Haraldsson has five league goals; Giroud has four; on the other side Le Paul has eight and Embolo has four. That kind of spread matters because it changes how you defend. Focus too much on the striker and a runner arrives late. Give Haraldsson a pocket and the pass comes early. Let Le Paul get one look and the net can bulge before you’ve reset your shape.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A single error — and Rennes are explicitly tagged as weak at avoiding individual errors — can rewrite the match. An early goal can scramble the intended shapes. And if both sides’ issues protecting leads show up again, the match may refuse to follow a neat script, no matter how tidy the tactical plan looks on paper.
Best Bet for Lille vs Rennes
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Lille to win and both teams to score
Rationale
This fixture brings together two of the most prolific attacks in Ligue 1 to kick off the 2026 calendar. Lille enter the match in fourth place with 32 points, having established themselves as one of the league’s top three scoring sides with 33 goals in 16 matches. Their home form is particularly formidable, coming into this game on the back of five consecutive victories at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. The hosts have shown a consistent ability to find the net, scoring in seven straight home matches, and they average 14.6 shots per game. With a ball retention rate of 56.0% and an 84.8% pass success rate, they are well-equipped to control the rhythm against a Rennes side that often allows opponents to dictate territory.
However, a clean sheet for the hosts appears unlikely given Rennes’ recent clinical edge. Sixth-placed Rennes have averaged 3.2 total goals in their matches this season and have secured five wins in their last six league outings. They possess one of the league’s most in-form strikers in Esteban Le Paul, who has already netted nine goals this term. While Rennes are strong at creating chances, their primary defensive weakness is protecting a lead—a category in which they are rated very weak. This is further exacerbated by their struggles on the road, where they have managed just two wins in their last 11 away league fixtures.
The historical head-to-head record is perhaps the most telling factor in favor of the home side. Lille are currently on a 12-match unbeaten run against Rennes in Ligue 1. Given that both teams are flagged for having “protecting the lead” as a weakness, an open game with multiple goals is expected. Lille’s superior technical security and historical dominance at home should see them edge a high-scoring encounter where both frontline units find success.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection lies in Lille’s depleted defensive unit. With Romain Perraud suspended and key defenders like Chancel Mbemba and Aissa Mandi away on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations, Lille’s backline may lack its usual cohesion. If Rennes can exploit this lack of continuity early through their wing-backs, they could frustrate the hosts and force a draw, as they have done in six of the last 12 meetings.
Correct score lean: Lille 2–1 Rennes
Rationale
A 2–1 victory for the hosts aligns with the statistical trends and tactical vulnerabilities of both sides. Lille average 1.4 goals per game but have shown higher output at home, while Rennes concede at a rate that makes a clean sheet for the visitors unlikely at the Pierre-Mauroy. Considering Lille’s strength in attacking set pieces and Rennes’ explicit weakness in defending them, the hosts have a clear avenue to goal even if open play becomes congested. Conversely, Rennes have scored three or more goals in several recent matches, suggesting they have the quality to breach a patchwork Lille defense at least once.
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