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Can Brest keep their February home perfection — or will Marseille’s firepower spoil the party at Stade Francis-Le Ble? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Marseille boast a high-powered attack with 48 goals scored, led by Mason Greenwood. However, Brest are physically dominant in the air and lethal on set pieces. Given both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities against through balls and Brest’s home form, both teams finding the net is highly likely.
Read Rationale ▾
Marseille’s clinical finishing and superior possession should eventually break Brest down. While Brest’s aerial strength and home momentum suggest they will get on the scoresheet, Marseille’s individual quality from Greenwood and Aubameyang points to a narrow 2-1 victory for the visiting side in this tactical battle.
Readers’ Tip
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Friday night under the lights at Stade Francis-Le Ble has a proper edge. Brest are 12th and coming off a gritty 1-1 draw at Lille, unbeaten domestically in February and starting to look like a side with sharper rhythm.
Brest vs Marseille — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample bet365 fractional odds.
Marseille arrive as strong favourites given their scoring record, while Brest rely on their February home form to secure a result.
With Marseille scoring 48 league goals this term, the market implies a strong probability of seeing at least three goals.
Marseille’s 58% possession dominance suggests a control-heavy victory, with a 2-1 away win among the shortest-priced outcomes.
Marseille’s 58.0% possession reflects their identity as a ball-dominant side, while Brest rely on 16.5 aerial wins per game.
Match Preview
Friday night under the lights at Stade Francis-Le Ble has a proper edge. Brest are 12th and coming off a gritty 1-1 draw at Lille, unbeaten domestically in February and starting to look like a side with sharper rhythm. But there’s a sting: they’ve already dropped four points this year from positions where they led in the second half.
Marseille arrive after a breathless 2-2 at home to Strasbourg, still packing punch in the final third, still carrying the ball like they own the pitch. This one sets up as a clash of identity — Brest’s direct, set-piece bite against Marseille’s possession-heavy squeeze.
Kick-off is 19:45.
Attacking Firepower: Total Goals Scored
Marseille’s clinical nature is evident in their seasonal tally, while Brest rely on specific tactical moments to find the net.
With 14.1 shots per game, Marseille’s offensive production is a core pillar of their identity this season.
Brest focus on clinical set-piece execution and aerial dominance to supplement their lower goal tally.
Style of Play: Possession Control
Supported by 89% pass accuracy, Marseille aim to dictate the tempo of every contest.
Brest prefer to surrender the ball, focusing on verticality and winning 16.5 aerial duels per match.
- Home-month obsession: Brest are aiming to keep a 100% home record in Ligue 1 this month, and they already blanked Lorient 2-0 to put a clean sheet on the board.
- Control vs chaos: Marseille carry 58.0% possession and 89.0% pass accuracy, while Brest sit at 42.8% possession — this fixture screams territory battle.
- Star power numbers: Mason Greenwood has 14 Ligue 1 goals and 4 assists, driving a Marseille side with 48 league goals in 22 — Brest need their moments to be clinical.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Brest
Injuries/absences: Not listed.
Probable lineup: Coudert; Lala, Diaz, Chardonnet, Guindo; Chotard, Magnetti; Del Castillo, Tousart, Labeau; Ajorque
Implication: Brest look built for direct impact. With Ludovic Ajorque up top and Romain Del Castillo supplying, it’s a shape that can turn one delivery into one big chance — but it also risks long spells without the ball.
Marseille
Injuries/absences: Not listed.
Probable lineup: Rulli; Weah, Pavard, Aguerd, Palmieri; Kondogbia, Højbjerg; Greenwood, Timber, Gouiri; Aubameyang
Implication: This is control-first football with finishers everywhere. Greenwood plus Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang gives Marseille goals from different angles, while Højbjerg sets the tempo behind them.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Ligue 1) | Brest | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | — |
| Matches played | 22 | 22 |
| Goals scored | 29 | 48 |
| Shots per game | 11.8 | 14.1 |
| Possession | 42.8% | 58.0% |
| Pass accuracy | 78.5% | 89.0% |
| Team rating | 6.59 | 6.69 |
| Aerials won | 16.5 | 9.2 |
Marseille dominate the ball and the shot count — 58.0% possession and 14.1 shots per game is a statement of intent. Brest counter with physical edge: 16.5 aerials won points to a side that can flip the pitch fast and make every set-piece feel like a scene of panic. If the match becomes a chessboard, it suits Marseille; if it becomes a scrap in the air, Brest can drag them into it.
Tactical Battle
Brest’s route: vertical football, set-piece venom, and Ajorque as the battering ram
Brest don’t pretend to be a possession side — they’re very weak at keeping the ball and prefer to get forward with long balls, crosses, and through balls. The plan is obvious: turn the game into sequences of pressure rather than long spells of control.
That suits Ajorque perfectly. He’s posting 5.5 aerials won and has 7 assists, which tells you Brest aren’t just pumping it forward — they’re using him as a wall, a reset button, and a creator. With Del Castillo (7 goals) arriving around the box and runners like Rémy Labeau Lascary (4 goals) offering speed, Brest have enough edge to punish any lapse.
The danger is structural. Brest are weak defending wing attacks and through balls, and they’re also weak at protecting a lead. If they get in front, the game doesn’t calm down — it tightens.
Marseille’s route: suffocate the ball, attack wide, then cut you open
Marseille want the match played in Brest’s half. Short passes, possession football, and control in the opposition’s territory — all backed up by 89.0% pass accuracy. They create long shots and they finish chances very well, which matters because Brest’s weaknesses include individual errors and defending set pieces.
Where it gets spicy is the matchup profile. Marseille are weak in aerial duels, while Brest are very strong there and strong on attacking set pieces. That’s Brest’s opening: win the air, win territory, win moments.
But Marseille’s threat is constant. Greenwood has 14 league goals, Gouiri has 5, and Aubameyang has 6 — Brest can’t afford to defend for long stretches without cracking.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces vs set-piece defending: Brest are strong attacking set pieces, while Marseille are strong defending them — that collision could decide the tone early.
- Aerial duels: Brest are very strong in the air (team 16.5 aerials won), Marseille are weak there (team 9.2). If Brest win the skies, they win territory.
- Through-ball danger: Both sides have a red flag here — Brest are weak against through balls, and Marseille are very weak defending them. One clean pass could blow the shape apart.
- Second-half nerve: Brest have already dropped four points this year from second-half leads. If they’re ahead late, the next phase is about decision-making, not vibes.
What Could Go Wrong?
Brest can start fast, land a set-piece punch, then get pulled into survival mode — and that’s where their weakness at protecting a lead bites. Marseille can dominate the ball, but if they get careless with duels or lose focus on direct deliveries, the match flips into aerial chaos they don’t enjoy. Either way, expect momentum swings — and a finish that asks serious questions of whichever side blinks first.
Market Explainer 📊
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
This market requires both the home and away sides to score at least one goal during the 90 minutes. It is a popular choice for high-tempo games where defensive vulnerabilities are present on both sides. Pros: Not dependent on the final result. Cons: A single clean sheet ruins the selection.
Correct Score
A high-risk, high-reward market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. Pros: Offers significantly higher odds. Cons: Extremely low margin for error; a single late goal can flip a winning position to a loss.
Brest vs Marseille Rationale 🎯
Friday’s encounter at Stade Francis-Le Ble presents a fascinating clash of styles. Marseille enter the game as the offensive powerhouse of Ligue 1, having netted 48 goals in 22 matches. With players like Mason Greenwood, who has 14 goals, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, they possess clinical finishers capable of exploiting individual errors—a known weakness for Brest. Marseille’s 58% possession and 89% pass accuracy suggest they will control the middle of the pitch, consistently creating opportunities through short passing and wide attacks.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Brest average 16.5 aerial wins per game, a major mismatch for Marseille’s 9.2 average.
- Marseille have scored 48 league goals, the highest in this matchup’s context.
- Brest have kept a clean sheet in their only home game this month (2-0 vs Lorient).
However, Brest are not to be dismissed. They are currently unbeaten in February and have shown incredible physical dominance, winning 16.5 aerial duels per match compared to Marseille’s 9.2. This aerial edge, combined with their strength in attacking set pieces, provides a direct route to goal against a Marseille side that can be vulnerable to direct deliveries. Given that both teams are weak in defending through balls, the likelihood of a high-event game where both find the net is high.
Risk Factor: Brest have dropped four points this year from winning positions in the second half, suggesting late-game defensive fatigue.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 16.5 duels/match. Direct threat from corners and long balls against a Marseille side winning only 9.2.
Ranked significantly lower in aerial success. Vulnerable to Brest’s high crossing volume and Ludovic Ajorque’s presence.
Scoreline Analysis 📈
The 2-1 scoreline in favour of Marseille is a calculated prediction based on Marseille’s superior efficiency in the final third. While Brest will use their 16.5 aerial duels won per match to disrupt Marseille’s flow and likely grab a goal from a set-piece or cross, Marseille’s 14.1 shots per game and 89% pass accuracy should prove too much over 90 minutes. Habib Beye’s men are clinical finishers, whereas Brest have shown a tendency to blink in the second half, dropping points from winning positions already this year.
Risk Factor: A scoreless first half could lead to a more cagey, low-scoring affair if Marseille fail to convert early possession into clear chances.
Interactive Q&A ⊕
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