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Can Auxerre’s home grit derail PSG’s title-chasing machine at the Abbé-Deschamps? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale▾
PSG’s 40-goal attack faces an Auxerre side with 30 goals conceded and five home red cards. The Parisians dominate 69.4% possession and average 17.6 shots. Auxerre’s defensive instability against elite creation makes a high-scoring away win the most probable outcome.
Read Rationale▾
PSG boast 12 clean sheets and face an Auxerre attack with just 14 goals in 18 games. With the hosts frequently playing short-handed and PSG’s clinical shot volume, a comfortable 3-0 scoreline reflects the massive technical gulf between 2nd and 17th place.
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Auxerre vs Paris Saint-Germain Predictions and Best Bets
Auxerre vs Paris Saint-Germain — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
PSG enter as heavy favourites with an 80% implied probability based on current exchange pricing, reflecting the gap in league standing.
Implied probabilities suggest a comfortable away win is the most likely outcome at Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps.
- Home-Only Lifeline: Auxerre have earned 10 of their 12 Ligue 1 points at Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps, so this fixture isn’t about comfort — it’s about survival fuel.
- Control vs Chaos: PSG average 69% possession with 91% pass accuracy in Ligue 1, while Auxerre sit at 44.5% possession — this could feel like one long defensive shift.
- Cards on the Table: Auxerre have seen a jaw-dropping five red cards at home this term, and they’ve also taken six red cards overall across their wider match log.
Control Indicators: Possession Dominance
A comparison of ball control levels which highlights the structural difference in how both teams manage the pitch.
The home side operates primarily through direct sequences rather than sustained ball retention.
Paris Saint-Germain sustain high volume through a possession-heavy tactical framework.
Attacking Reliability: Goals Scored
The raw offensive output of both sides across the current Ligue 1 campaign.
Averages under one goal per game, reflecting challenges in offensive conversion.
A high-scoring machine that consistently finds the net across various tactical setups.
Friday night at Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps brings a brutal contrast: second best against second worst, with everything on the line at both ends of the table. Auxerre are down in 17th with 12 points, and victory would temporarily lift them out of the bottom two. The problem? Christophe Pélissier’s side arrive battered by results — three straight Ligue 1 losses to Lille, Brest and Lens, plus a Coupe de France exit to Monaco.
Paris Saint-Germain roll into town in 2nd with 42 points, needing just a point to reclaim top spot, at least briefly. PSG’s rhythm is built on dominance, but Auxerre’s entire season has screamed one thing: if they’re going to make a stand, it’s here — under the lights, at 19:00, on their own pitch.
Team News & Lineups
Team News (injuries/absences)
- Auxerre: No injuries/suspensions listed.
- Paris Saint-Germain: No injuries/suspensions listed.
Implication: With no absences flagged, this looks like a tactical fight rather than a patched-up survival XI. That suits PSG’s control game — but it also means Auxerre can’t hide behind excuses if discipline slips again.
Probable Lineups
Auxerre (possible XI):
Leon; Sy, Akpa, Diomande, Senaya, Mensah; El Azzouzi, Ahamada; Faivre; Namoso, Sinayoko
Paris Saint-Germain (possible XI):
Chevalier; Hakimi, Zabarnyi, Beraldo, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Mayulu; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Auxerre | Paris Saint-Germain |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 2nd |
| Points | 12 | 42 |
| Ligue 1 goals scored | 14 | 40 |
| Shots per game | 10.9 | 17.6 |
| Possession % | 44.5% | 69.4% |
| Pass % | 81.2% | 91.6% |
| Goals conceded (overall log shown) | 30 (19 games) | 26 (27 games) |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 12 |
This table screams game script. PSG have the ball, PSG take the shots, PSG squeeze the pitch. Auxerre have to survive waves — and then somehow land a punch with far fewer touches and far fewer opportunities.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
PSG: control the pitch, then cut through it
Luis Enrique has a side built for command. PSG play possession football, keep it sharp with short passes, and aim to control the game in the opposition’s half. Their Ligue 1 numbers back it up: 69.4% possession and 91.6% pass accuracy, alongside 17.6 shots per game. That’s not pressure — that’s occupation.
The threat isn’t just volume, it’s variety. PSG are very strong at creating chances through individual skill, through balls, and long-shot opportunities. With Vitinha (7 assists) pulling strings and attackers like Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in the likely front three, the ball can come at Auxerre from everywhere: slips inside, bursts outside, and shots when the block starts to crack.
But there’s a wrinkle. PSG are very weak at aerial duels, and they’re very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. That sounds odd for a side this dominant, but it hints at moments where the game can suddenly feel unstable if Auxerre win a second ball or break a press line.
Auxerre: aggressive, direct, and living on the edge
Pélissier’s Auxerre are aggressive, lean into long balls, and like to attack down the left with width. They also rate very strong at stealing the ball from the opposition — which matters because they’re weak at keeping possession. In plain terms: they don’t want long spells, they want moments.
The issue is finishing. Auxerre are very weak at finishing scoring chances, and they’ve scored 14 goals in 18. So even when they do force PSG into a rare messy transition, they have to be ruthless — and their season hasn’t been.
That puts a spotlight on Lassine Sinayoko. He’s their top scorer with 6 goals and adds 2 assists too. If Auxerre are going to turn territory into something real, it likely runs through his ability to carry, compete, and make one chance feel like three.
Key Moments to Watch
- Discipline and game management: Auxerre’s home record includes five red cards at the Abbé-Deschamps this term. Against PSG’s ball retention, playing short-handed is asking for an avalanche.
- Set pieces and second balls: Auxerre are weak defending set pieces, while PSG are strong attacking set pieces and strong defending set pieces. That could decide momentum in tight spells.
- Long shots as a release valve: Auxerre are weak defending against long shots, and PSG are very strong at creating long-shot chances. That’s a dangerous combination if Auxerre sink too deep.
- The Sinayoko moment: With Auxerre’s output limited, Sinayoko needs support from Danny Namaso (2 goals) and runners around him to turn scraps into shots.
What could go wrong?
For Auxerre, it’s the same trap every under-pressure home side falls into: chase the ball, chase the referee, chase the game — then a red mist moment turns a tough task into an impossible one. For PSG, it’s control without killer instinct: dominate, miss a couple of big openings, then get dragged into a fight they didn’t plan for when one turnover or one long ball suddenly has the crowd believing.
Best Bet for Auxerre vs Paris Saint-Germain
Can Auxerre’s home grit derail PSG’s title-chasing machine at the Abbé-Deschamps?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | PSG 40 goals; Auxerre 14 | PSG Win |
| Defense | PSG 12 Clean Sheets; Auxerre 3 | PSG Win to Nil |
| Discipline | Auxerre 5 Home Red Cards | Over 0.5 Cards |
| Control | PSG 69.4% Poss; Auxerre 44.5% | PSG -1.5 Handicap |
PSG to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Paris Saint-Germain roll into the Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps with a clear objective to reclaim top spot. The Parisians average 40 goals in Ligue 1 and maintain a staggering 69.4% possession rate. This technical dominance allows them to pin opponents deep into their own half, creating an average of 17.6 shots per game.
Auxerre are currently 17th and have lost three consecutive Ligue 1 fixtures. Their primary defensive vulnerability lies in their inability to defend set pieces and long-range efforts, areas where PSG are exceptionally strong. With players like Vitinha and Dembélé pulling the strings, PSG possess the variety to break down a low block that has conceded 30 goals this season.
Discipline is the critical factor for the home side. Auxerre have recorded five red cards on their own turf this term. Playing against PSG’s ball retention with ten men is a catastrophic scenario that often leads to late flurries of goals. PSG’s superior 91.6% pass accuracy ensures they can tire out a defensive unit before exploiting gaps in the final 30 minutes.
While Auxerre have secured 10 of their 12 points at home, their finishing remains weak. They have scored just 14 goals in 18 matches, meaning they lack the firepower to keep pace once PSG’s high-volume attack starts clicking. Expect a dominant display where the visitors overwhelm the hosts with sheer quantity of chances.
What could go wrong?
Auxerre’s survival fuel is entirely concentrated on their home performances. If they can avoid early yellow cards and maintain a rigid defensive block, they may limit PSG to a low-scoring affair. Should PSG fail to convert their early possession into goals, the match could become a frustrating draw or a narrow 1-0 win that stays under the goal threshold.
Correct Score Lean
PSG 3-0 Auxerre
PSG’s defensive record of 12 clean sheets is the league’s benchmark, while Auxerre’s attack is among the least efficient with only 14 goals scored. The tactical setup favors a clean sheet for the visitors as they rarely allow opposition possession in dangerous areas. Given Auxerre’s high red card rate and PSG’s ability to create 17.6 shots per game, a three-goal margin reflects the massive gulf in quality between the two squads.
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