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Estudiantes La Plata vs Newell’s Old Boys: Home strength meets sharper recent form. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Estudiantes' strong home record and defensive discipline against Newell's away vulnerabilities underpin this pick. Despite Newell's recent wins, Estudiantes have limited them to minimal shots on target in recent meetings, making a home win the more credible outcome.
A 2-0 win fits Estudiantes' defensive strength and Newell's away struggles. Their last meeting ended 2-0 with Estudiantes limiting Newell's shots on target. The scoreline suits both teams' recent form but is vulnerable to any away goal or extra Estudiantes goal.
Estudiantes La Plata host Newell’s Old Boys with two competing strands of form pointing in different directions.
Estudiantes La Plata vs Newell’s Old Boys — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Estudiantes' home strength and Newell's away weakness shape the match result market.
Estudiantes' strong home form contrasts with Newell's poor away record, favouring a home win.
Both teams have recent low scoring games, with Estudiantes conceding few goals.
Defensive strengths and past 2-0 result suggest this exact scoreline is plausible.
Three Punchy Stats
- Estudiantes have conceded just 0.8 goals per game across their last 10 league matches, despite winning only four of those fixtures.
- Newell’s average 1.3 goals from nine attempts per game over their last 10 league outings, compared with Estudiantes’ 1.0 from 10.8 attempts.
- Newell’s have lost six of their last 10 away league games, while Estudiantes have won their last two Primera División matches at home.
Goals Scored in Last 10 Matches
Recent attacking records for Estudiantes La Plata and Newell's Old Boys are shown below.
Clean Sheets in Last 10 Matches
Recent defensive records for Estudiantes La Plata and Newell's Old Boys are shown below.
Newell’s have won their last two Primera División matches and have produced the stronger recent league record overall, while Estudiantes have lost five of their last 10. Yet the hosts have won consecutive league games at home, Newell’s have lost their last two away fixtures, and the recent head-to-head record has belonged firmly to Estudiantes.
That makes the location of this match more significant than the league form alone might suggest. Newell’s arrive with greater attacking output; Estudiantes have the defensive numbers and recent home record to make that advantage less straightforward.
Estudiantes are creating more than they are scoring
The 2-0 defeat at Sarmiento was an awkward example of Estudiantes’ recent inefficiency. They controlled 76% of possession and registered 19 attempts, including six on target, yet failed to score. Sarmiento also managed six shots on target, but required only 11 attempts to produce their two goals.
Across Estudiantes’ last 10 league matches, the same issue appears in less dramatic form. They average 10.8 attempts and 3.9 shots on target but only one goal per game. Their attacking volume is respectable without being especially productive.
There is more reassurance defensively. Estudiantes have conceded only 0.8 goals per match across that sequence, allowing 9.7 attempts and 3.5 shots on target on average. Five of their previous six games have also ended with at least one side failing to score.
Their 3-1 Copa Argentina victory over Barracas Central offers a timely reminder that the Sarmiento blank was not part of an uninterrupted scoring drought.
Newell’s carry the more productive attack
Newell’s have scored eight goals across their last six matches and come into this fixture after consecutive league victories. Matías Cóccaro struck twice in the 2-1 win over Banfield and has four goals across the last 10 league games, with Ignacio Ramírez contributing three.
That individual output helps explain why Newell’s have averaged 1.3 goals during that 10-match stretch, compared with Estudiantes’ 1.0. They have achieved it from fewer attempts too: nine per game, with 3.8 reaching the target.
Their efficiency is therefore stronger, although their defensive workload provides the counterpoint. Opponents average 13 attempts and 4.5 shots on target against them, while Newell’s concede one goal per game. They have managed those situations reasonably well, but Estudiantes should not require overwhelming possession to generate opportunities.
Home and away records change the balance
Recent overall form favours Newell’s. Their last 10 league matches have brought four wins, four draws and only two defeats, whereas Estudiantes have four wins, one draw and five losses.
The venue alters that picture. Estudiantes have won their last two Primera División home fixtures and 11 of their previous 20 at home. Newell’s have lost six of their last 10 away league matches and 10 of their previous 16 on the road.
There is a similar pattern in the meetings between these teams. Estudiantes are unbeaten in the last five encounters and won the previous one 2-0 away from home, with Tiago Palacios and Fabricio Pérez scoring. Newell’s managed 13 attempts that day but only one on target; Estudiantes produced seven on target from 17 attempts.
That previous match captures the problem Newell’s must avoid repeating. Generating possession or shot volume is far less useful if too little of it troubles the goalkeeper.
The contest may hinge on efficiency
Newell’s arrive with the better recent attacking return and the more prolific individual scorer in Cóccaro. Estudiantes, though, concede fewer goals, allow fewer shots on target and have a home record that sits in sharp contrast with Newell’s recent travelling results.
Neither side’s headline form tells the whole story. The visitors appear more efficient going forward; the hosts have repeatedly shown they can limit opponents and have been considerably more convincing at home than their broader sequence suggests.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result Market
Selection: Estudiantes La Plata to Win. Choose the home win, draw or away win after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are excluded from settlement.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Estudiantes La Plata vs Newell’s Old Boys 2-0. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Estudiantes La Plata to Win @ 7/10
Venue split matters far more than overall league record in this fixture. Estudiantes have secured back-to-back home league wins and have built a reliable platform by winning 11 of their last 20 fixtures at home. Conversely, Newell’s Old Boys consistently struggle away from home, losing six of their previous 10 travelling league matches and 10 of their last 16 on the road.
Although Newell’s hold a superior overall 10-match record with four wins, four draws and two defeats, their defensive exposure on the road creates clear opportunities for the hosts. Newell’s allow 13 attempts and 4.5 shots on target per match to opposition teams. Estudiantes average 10.8 attempts and 3.9 shots on target per game, meaning they build adequate scoring chances without needing overwhelming possession. The previous head-to-head meeting ended in a 2-0 away win for Estudiantes, where they restricted Newell’s to a single shot on target from 13 attempts while landing seven on target themselves.
The main risk stems from Estudiantes’ recent finishing inefficiency, highlighted by a 2-0 defeat against Sarmiento where they failed to score despite controlling 76% possession and generating 19 attempts. Additionally, Newell’s arrive following consecutive league victories, with striker Matías Cóccaro scoring four times across his last 10 league appearances. Nevertheless, Estudiantes concede only 0.8 goals per match and remain unbeaten across their last five encounters with Newell’s. Strong home form combined with reliable defensive numbers gives Estudiantes a firm foundation to claim all three points.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Estudiantes have won 11 of their last 20 home league games; Newell's lost six of their last 10 away matches.
- Estudiantes are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Newell's, including a recent 2-0 away win.
- Estudiantes concede only 0.8 goals per match, limiting opponents to 3.5 shots on target on average.
Risk Factor: Estudiantes' low scoring rate means a single Newell's goal could negate the home win.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Conceding 0.8 goals and 3.5 shots on target per match while winning 11 of their last 20 home games.
Lost six of last 10 away games, allowing opponents an average of 13 attempts and 4.5 shots on target per match.
⚔️ Pick 2: Estudiantes La Plata vs Newell’s Old Boys 2-0 @ 6/1
A 2-0 home victory for Estudiantes aligns with both defensive profiles and recent head-to-head history. Estudiantes have restricted opponents to just 0.8 goals per game across their last 10 league matches, allowing only 3.5 shots on target per contest. Furthermore, five of their previous six league games have seen at least one team fail to score, highlighting a frequent pattern of clean sheets and low-scoring outcomes.
Justifying the zero on Newell’s side of the scoreline comes down to their travelling record and shot accuracy. Newell’s have lost six of their last 10 away league fixtures, and in the previous meeting between these clubs, Estudiantes held Newell’s to just one shot on target despite facing 13 total attempts. While Newell’s average 1.3 goals per game overall with Matías Cóccaro scoring four in 10, their output drops away from home, where they have lost two consecutive matches.
On the scoring side for Estudiantes, two goals fits their offensive parameters against a vulnerable away defence. Newell’s concede 1.0 goal per game and allow opponents 13 attempts per match. Estudiantes demonstrated their two-goal capability in the last direct encounter, winning 2-0 with goals from Tiago Palacios and Fabricio Pérez after putting seven shots on target. The primary risk to this exact scoreline is a single away goal or another inefficient blank like the Sarmiento defeat, making any correct-score selection inherently fragile to a single goal margin.
Risk Factor: The exact 2-0 scoreline is vulnerable to any away goal or an additional Estudiantes goal.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does backing Estudiantes La Plata on the Match Result market mean?
It means Estudiantes must win after 90 minutes; a draw or loss results in a lost bet.
How does the Correct Score market settle for a 2-0 prediction?
The bet wins only if Estudiantes score exactly two goals and Newell's score none.
Why is Estudiantes' home record important in this match?
They have won their last two home games and 11 of their last 20 at home, contrasting Newell's away struggles.
How do Newell's defensive stats compare away from home?
They allow 13 attempts and 4.5 shots on target per match, contributing to six defeats in their last 10 away games.
What role does recent head-to-head form play?
Estudiantes are unbeaten in five meetings and won the last 2-0 away, limiting Newell's shots on target.
What is the main risk when backing Estudiantes to win?
Their low goal return and finishing inefficiency could allow Newell's to score and affect the result.
