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Can Chesterfield turn a Boxing Day blockbuster into a statement against Notts County? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is heavily supported by the fact that both teams have scored in 100% of the last eight meetings between these two clubs. Furthermore, Chesterfield have seen both teams find the net in all six of their most recent home fixtures. Despite missing some key creative players, the home side continues to generate high attack volumes, while Notts County feature two of the league's top scorers in Dennis and Jatta. Given both teams average 1.5 goals or more per game, a clean sheet for either side appears unlikely.
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With only three points separating these promotion contenders, a closely contested draw is a high-probability outcome. Chesterfield’s defensive record shows they concede 1.75 goals per game on average, which plays into the hands of a Notts County side that is currently on a six-match unbeaten run away from home. Given the high volume of shots both teams take from inside the box and their similar possession stats, a high-scoring 2-2 draw reflects the tactical parity and the historical trend of goals at both ends.
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Chesterfield VS Notts County Predictions and Best Bets
Chesterfield vs Notts Co — bet365 Market Snapshot
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- Goals at both ends has become the norm: Chesterfield’s last six home matches saw both teams score, and this fixture has also delivered BTTS in eight straight meetings across all competitions.
- Possession leaders collide: Chesterfield are listed at 58% possession with 433.75 passes per game, while Notts sit at 56% and 456.38 passes, hinting at a game with long spells on the ball.
- The shot volumes match up closely: Chesterfield have 300 total shots (10.71 per game) and Notts 282 (10.85 per game), with 70% and 65% of efforts coming from inside the box respectively.
Attacking Volume: Total Match Attacks
A comparison of total offensive pressure exerted by both sides across the current campaign.
The home side averages a high number of entries, reflected in their 58% possession share.
Notts operate with a slightly lower total volume but maintain a high pass accuracy of 79%.
Final Third Intensity: Dangerous Attacks
Measuring how often each team penetrates into the final third to create goal-scoring opportunities.
A high percentage of their possession turns into dangerous final-third activity.
Notts focus on quality of entry, resulting in a similar shot-on-target percentage to their opponents.
Boxing Day under the lights at the Technique Stadium, Chesterfield v Notts County has the feel of one of those League Two nights where the table barely matters because the occasion does the talking. But the standings add a little extra spice anyway: Notts arrive fourth on 38 points, Chesterfield sit seventh on 35, and the pair are separated by just three points and three places.
It is being billed as a “blockbuster”, there’s an expected sell-out, and recent meetings have leaned into the dramatic. The rivalry has been stoked over the last few years, with memories of a play-off final at Wembley in 2023 and both clubs’ subsequent journeys into League Two still close enough to taste. On Friday, it becomes about the next chapter rather than the last one.
Chesterfield come in off successive wins, while Notts have put together an unbeaten run that keeps them firmly in the promotion conversation. There’s no need to dress it up: two sides in form, a tight league picture, and a fixture that tends to swing between chaos and quality. Sometimes both at once.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Chesterfield’s biggest pre-match storyline is at centre-back. Chey Dunkley will be assessed after injuring his knee in the 1-0 win at Shrewsbury Town. He finished the game, but didn’t look comfortable after landing awkwardly late on. That matters not just because he’s a senior defender, but because he’s been a significant presence for Chesterfield across the campaign, with 21 League Two appearances, five man-of-the-match awards and a 7.28 rating listed alongside 6.9 aerials won per game.
Tom Naylor also took a knock in the same match, though the midfielder was said to be okay afterwards. With games coming quickly, Chesterfield’s physical condition through the spine of the team is worth tracking.
There is, however, a clear boost: John Fleck is available again after completing a suspension that followed his red card against Doncaster Rovers. Fleck’s return adds another option in midfield at a time when Chesterfield are juggling minutes and managing a packed festive schedule.
The absences are concentrated in wide and attacking areas. Armando Dobra, Dilan Markanday and Bailey Hobson are all unavailable with hamstring injuries. Dobra and Markanday have both contributed four League Two goals apiece, and their unavailability naturally shifts where Chesterfield’s creativity and penetration might come from. Janoi Donacien is described as the closest to returning and has a chance of being available for Notts, even if that remains a “possibly” rather than a certainty.
For Notts County, no specific team news is provided here, so the focus falls on what they have been doing rather than who they might be missing.
How the Match Could Be Played
With Dunkley being checked, Chesterfield’s defensive approach could hinge on whether they can keep their preferred levels of authority in duels and second balls. Dunkley’s aerial output suggests he gives them a reliable way to compete when the game turns into a scrap, and Boxing Day fixtures have a habit of doing exactly that after one early tackle sets the temperature.
If he plays, Chesterfield can be more confident defending direct phases and set-piece moments, then building their own attacks with a bit more composure. If he doesn’t, the same moments become stress-tests: how quickly can Chesterfield clear their lines, how well can they control rebounds, and how calm are they if Notts manage to lock play in?
Midfield is the other hinge. Fleck’s return and Naylor’s availability (assuming the knock doesn’t linger) suggest Chesterfield should have options to vary their tempo. That matters against a Notts side who see plenty of the ball themselves. Chesterfield’s possession is listed at 58% with 433.75 passes per game and 77% pass accuracy; Notts are not far behind at 56% possession, 456.38 passes per game and 79% accuracy. In other words, this needn’t be a game of pure ping-pong unless someone deliberately turns it into one.
The more interesting question is where that possession happens. Both sides take a similar volume of shots per game: Chesterfield 10.71 total shots, Notts 10.85. Both also funnel most efforts from inside the box (Chesterfield 70% inside-box shots; Notts 65%). That points towards attacks that do eventually reach dangerous zones rather than settling for hopeful pot-shots all night.
Chesterfield’s attacking volume is also significant. They are listed with 2,810 total attacks and 1,343 dangerous attacks, both higher than Notts (2,498 total attacks and 1,160 dangerous attacks). That suggests the home side can put together sustained pressure and repeat entries, especially if the crowd is as loud as expected and the game starts at a frantic pace.
But Notts’ recent away record hints at a side comfortable absorbing the atmosphere and still landing their punches. They are unbeaten in their last six away clashes in all competitions, and their away match log includes wins at Grimsby Town, Bristol Rovers, Cheltenham and Barnet, plus draws at Swindon Town and Brackley Town. That resilience on the road matters if the early phases feel like Chesterfield trying to “Boxing Day blitz” them.
Personnel absences for Chesterfield in attacking roles may shape how they try to break lines. Without Dobra and Markanday, the balance of dribbling, craft and final-third spark changes, so the game may lean more on collective movement and on players who can connect phases reliably. Liam Mandeville’s five assists and Dylan Duffy’s four assists stand out as creators who have already been productive, while Lee Bonis (six League Two goals) offers a route to goal that doesn’t rely on everything being pretty.
For Notts, the headline threat in the squad numbers is Matthew Dennis with 10 League Two goals and Alassana Jatta with eight. If Chesterfield’s centre-back situation is disrupted, the duel between whoever anchors the home defence and those forwards becomes a central story. Notts also have Tyrese Hall contributing five goals from an attacking midfield role, which adds another runner to track if Chesterfield’s midfield screen is stretched by transitions.
The tactical rhythm could swing on who wins the “second phase” moments: corners, half-cleared crosses, and the scrappy bits after a tackle. Chesterfield average 4.75 corners per game (133 total across 28 matches), while Notts average 4.15 (108 total across 26). Neither side is short of set-piece opportunity, and in a game where both teams regularly get into the box, dead-ball moments can become the quickest route from “even” to “tilted”.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league table framing tells you this should be tight, but the goals profile suggests it may not be cagey. Across Chesterfield’s last 28 matches, they have scored 44 (1.57 per game) and conceded 49 (1.75 per game). Notts, across 26 matches, have scored 39 (1.5 per game) and conceded 31 (1.19 per game). That contrast is revealing: Chesterfield’s games have tended to be looser, with more conceded, while Notts’ have been a little more controlled at the back.
There’s also a strong “both sides will fancy scoring” thread running through recent patterns. In Chesterfield’s last six home matches in all competitions, both teams scored in every one. And in the last eight meetings between Notts and Chesterfield across all competitions, both teams scored each time. When a fixture repeatedly produces goals at both ends, it shapes the psychology: defenders can’t assume one moment of dominance is enough, and attackers are encouraged to keep swinging.
The shot profile backs that up. Chesterfield have 300 total shots (10.71 per game) and Notts 282 (10.85 per game), with broadly similar on-target shares (Chesterfield 36% on target; Notts 37%). That blend of volume and accuracy is exactly what makes matches feel “alive”: chances arrive often enough that one spell of pressure can turn into a goal, but not so clinical that the game is settled early.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment is the early duel at the heart of Chesterfield’s defence. If Dunkley is fit enough to start, his aerial presence and overall impact could help Chesterfield manage Notts’ forwards and defend the kind of deliveries and second balls that tend to pile up in festive fixtures. If he isn’t, Chesterfield’s structure may need to be sharper collectively: fewer cheap fouls, better spacing on crosses, and more protection in front of the back line.
The second is Chesterfield’s creativity without Dobra and Markanday. When two players with four League Two goals each are unavailable, it doesn’t mean the attack disappears; it means the burden is redistributed. Watch for who becomes the connector, who takes responsibility for the final pass, and whether the home side’s entries into the box come from wide service, combinations, or sheer volume of pressure.
Third, keep an eye on Notts’ travelling confidence. Their unbeaten away run suggests they can ride out periods where the home team is on top. If Chesterfield dominate the ball early, Notts’ response could be to stay patient and wait for the moments when midfield turnovers open up space for Dennis, Jatta, or Hall to drive into.
Finally, set pieces feel like a natural swing factor. With both teams generating corners at a steady clip and both regularly getting shots away from inside the box, one well-delivered dead ball or one scrappy rebound could be the difference between a good performance and a great one.
What could go wrong with this read? A lot, frankly. Festive football can be chaotic: tired legs, little knocks that change plans late on, and games that flip because of one deflection or one mistimed clearance. And with the recent history of both teams scoring in this matchup, even a side that feels in control can suddenly find itself dragged into a shootout.
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Both Teams to Score
This fixture brings together two of League Two’s most consistent attacking units in a setting that historically guarantees goals at both ends. The statistical profile for this matchup is remarkably consistent: in each of the last eight meetings between these two clubs across all competitions, both teams have found the back of the net. This isn’t just a historical quirk but a reflection of how these sides match up tactically. Chesterfield enter this clash having seen both teams score in every one of their last six home matches across all competitions, showing a tendency to leave the back door open even when they are productive in the final third.
The offensive output from both camps further justifies this selection. Chesterfield average 1.57 goals per game and have managed 44 goals in 28 matches, while Notts County are nearly identical with a 1.5 goals-per-game average. Both teams prioritize high-volume shooting from high-probability areas, with 70% of Chesterfield’s efforts and 65% of Notts’ shots coming from inside the penalty area. Even with key creative absences for the home side like Armando Dobra and Dilan Markanday, Chesterfield retain significant threats through Lee Bonis and the league’s top assist providers, Liam Mandeville and Dylan Duffy.
Notts County arrive with significant momentum, boasting a prolific strike force in Matthew Dennis and Alassana Jatta, who have combined for 18 league goals. Their ability to score on the road is well-documented, remaining unbeaten in their last six away fixtures. When you combine Notts’ clinical finishing with Chesterfield’s recent defensive instability—conceding 1.75 goals per game on average—it is difficult to envision a scenario where the visitors fail to score. Given the “blockbuster” atmosphere and the historical 100% strike rate for this market in recent head-to-heads, the logic for both teams finding the net is overwhelming.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is a tactical stalemate born of festive fatigue or a cautious approach to a high-stakes promotion battle. If Chesterfield’s defensive anchor Chey Dunkley is passed fit, his significant aerial presence (winning 6.9 duels per game) could help the Spireites neutralize Notts’ service into the box. Conversely, the absence of Chesterfield’s primary creative outlets could lead to a more disjointed home attack that struggles to capitalize on the 58% possession they typically enjoy.
Correct score lean: 2-2
A 2-2 draw is a highly logical projection for this matchup, aligning with the “both teams to score” narrative while acknowledging the parity between the sides. Chesterfield and Notts County are separated by just three points and three places in the table, and their possession and shooting stats are nearly mirrored. With Chesterfield’s high conceding rate (1.75 per game) meeting Notts County’s potent attack, and both teams averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game, a high-scoring stalemate fits the pattern of a fixture that frequently swings between chaos and quality under the lights.
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