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Can Stevenage finally turn draws into wins — or will Peterborough’s slick football cut through at the Lamex? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Stevenage are winless in nine at home and have scored one or fewer in seven straight. Peterborough’s superior 55.2% possession and passing control should overwhelm a home side that spends too much time chasing. Draw No Bet covers the high frequency of Stevenage stalemates.
Read Rationale ▾
With Stevenage averaging under one goal per game recently and Peterborough maintaining high possession, a low-scoring away win is the tactical likelyhood. Stevenage’s defensive structure remains solid enough to avoid a rout, but their lack of punch makes a clean sheet for the visitors probable.
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Stevenage vs Peterborough United Predictions and Best Bets
Stevenage vs Peterborough — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Stevenage enter as slight favourites despite a poor home run, with the draw and away win both showing identical pricing in the 90-minute market.
The 1-1 draw is statistically the shortest price among scorelines, reflecting Stevenage’s five-game streak of home stalemates.
A lower-scoring affair is anticipated, with Under 2.5 goals priced significantly shorter than the Over option.
- Home frustration is loud: Stevenage are without a home win in nine matches, and their last outing at the Lamex was a fifth straight home draw.
- Goals have dried up at the worst time: Stevenage have scored one or fewer in each of their last seven matches, and they’ve conceded 11 across their winless run of eight.
- Control v chaos in the numbers: Stevenage average 44.0% possession and 9.3 shots per game in League One, while Peterborough post 55.2% possession and 12.6 shots per game.
Tactical Control: Average Possession
Peterborough’s technical style contrast sharply with Stevenage’s more direct, collision-based approach in League One.
The home side often prefers to live on second balls and momentum shifts rather than sustained build-up play.
Under Luke Williams, the visitors embrace short passes and through balls to dominate the middle third.
Technical Accuracy: Pass Completion Rates
Pass accuracy provides a clear indicator of which side is likely to dictate the rhythm of the game at the Lamex Stadium.
A lower accuracy reflects a strategy focused on high-risk long balls and aerial duels into the final third.
A high completion rate highlights a purpose-driven passing game that forces opponents to chase without the ball.
Tuesday night at the Lamex Stadium has that “six-pointer without the cliché” feel. Stevenage are eighth on 39 points, Peterborough are ninth on 38, and both can see the line they’re chasing — sixth-placed Huddersfield on 42. Close enough to touch. Close enough to sting if you slip.
Stevenage come in with grit but not enough punch. Alex Revell’s men rescued a 1-1 draw at Mansfield with a 97th-minute equaliser, but they didn’t fashion a single big chance. Peterborough, under Luke Williams, arrive with a very different rhythm: more ball, more passes, more attempts — and a recent away win at Wycombe (2-0) that shows they can travel and land a blow. Kick-off is 19:45, and the stakes are obvious: win, and the top six stops feeling like a mirage.
Team News & Lineups
- Stevenage absences
- None listed.
- Peterborough United absences
- None listed.
Stevenage possible starting lineup:
Marschall; Pattenden, Sweeney, Piergianni, Freestone; White, Phillips; Roberts, Thompson, Lubala; Reid
Peterborough United possible starting lineup:
Bass; Kioso, Lees, Nevett, Johnston; Collins, Khela; Garbett, Morgan, Lisbie; Leonard
Lineup implication — where it tilts
Stevenage’s XI screams structure and duel power: Carl Piergianni and Charlie Goode give them serious air dominance, and Harvey White adds bite plus end product. Peterborough’s looks built to play: Archie Collins (5 assists) feeds runners, and Harry Leonard brings the sharp edge with 8 goals and 4 assists.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Stevenage | Peterborough United |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 9th |
| Points | 39 | 38 |
| League One goals scored | 28 | 35 |
| League One shots per game | 9.3 | 12.6 |
| Possession % (League One) | 44.0% | 55.2% |
| Pass accuracy % (League One) | 64.8% | 80.6% |
| Aerials won (League One) | 28.4 | 20.2 |
Stevenage don’t want a slow, technical contest — their passing numbers and possession point to a side that live on scraps, second balls, and momentum swings. Peterborough want the opposite: keep it, move it, and make you chase. The key question is whether Stevenage can drag this into a duel-heavy, stop-start scrap… or whether Peterborough’s clean build-up turns the Lamex into a long night of running without reward.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
When Stevenage have the ball: direct, right-sided, and built for collisions
Stevenage are aggressive and unapologetic. They hit long balls, attempt crosses often, and like to attack down the right. That should feed Jamie Reid — their top scorer with 8 — and also bring Lubala and Roberts into the game as carriers and runners around the box.
The issue is the finishing lane. Stevenage have scored one or fewer goals in seven straight and they’ve gone eight games without a win. That makes the next pass feel heavier, the next shot feel rushed. If they don’t get bodies into the box quickly, Peterborough’s centre-backs can settle, and Stevenage’s attacks can turn into hopeful deliveries rather than real chances.
Still, Stevenage’s biggest weapon is the one Peterborough don’t love facing: the dead-ball and the aerial. Stevenage are very strong defending set pieces, and very strong in aerial duels. They can turn corners and wide free-kicks into territory, pressure, and panic.
When Peterborough have the ball: clean possession, central lanes, and runners off the shoulder
Peterborough are a different animal. They play short passes, embrace possession football, and want to attack through the middle with through balls and long shots as the end product. They also post 80.6% pass accuracy in League One — that’s control with purpose.
The mismatch sits in Stevenage’s soft centre. They are weak defending against through ball attacks and very weak keeping possession. If Stevenage can’t keep it, they can’t rest. If they can’t rest, their shape starts to stretch — and that’s when Leonard, Lisbie (5 goals, 4 assists) and Morgan can find gaps.
The twist: Peterborough’s defensive nerves under pressure
Peterborough’s weaknesses read like an invitation for Stevenage’s most direct plan: they are weak defending set pieces, weak stopping opponents creating chances, and very weak avoiding individual errors. If Stevenage turn this into a second-ball storm, Peterborough have to survive their own lapses as much as the opponent.
Key Moments to Watch
- Half-time pattern: Stevenage have drawn at half-time in seven straight League One games. If it’s level again at the break, expect the tension — and the second half to feel like a test of nerve.
- Set pieces vs set-piece defending: Stevenage are powerful in the air, and Peterborough’s set-piece defending is a known vulnerability. Corners and wide free-kicks could be Stevenage’s quickest route to turning control into chaos.
- Tempo control: Peterborough’s passing and possession can squeeze the life out of Stevenage, especially if the home side lose the ball cheaply. The longer Stevenage chase, the harder it becomes to create anything clean.
- Discipline in dangerous zones: Stevenage are weak avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Give away too many cheap set plays in shooting and crossing range, and you invite Peterborough’s long-shot and delivery threat.
What could go wrong?
For Stevenage, it’s the same story: plenty of effort, not enough bite. If the goal drought continues, another draw can creep in — and they’re already on five straight home stalemates. For Peterborough, it’s concentration. One rushed touch, one sloppy clearance, one poor set-piece decision — and a team that prides itself on control can suddenly be dragged into the kind of chaotic fight Stevenage actually enjoy.
Best Bet for Stevenage vs Peterborough
Can Stevenage finally turn draws into wins — or will Peterborough’s slick football cut through at the Lamex?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Form | STE: 0 wins in 8; POS: 2-0 win at Wycombe | Back Peterborough |
| Attack | STE: ≤1 goal in 7 games; POS: 12.6 shots/gm | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Control | STE: 44% possession; POS: 55.2% possession | Away Win |
Peterborough to Win (Draw No Bet)
The Lamex Stadium has become a fortress of frustration for the home side. Stevenage are currently enduring a nine-match winless streak on their own turf, characterized by five consecutive home draws. While they are difficult to beat, their inability to secure three points is a systemic issue rooted in a stagnating attack. They have scored one or fewer goals in each of their last seven matches, making it nearly impossible to pull away from opponents.
Peterborough arrive with a vastly different technical profile that is designed to exploit Stevenage’s lack of ball retention. With a 55.2% average possession and a superior pass accuracy of 80.6%, Peterborough are equipped to starve the home side of the ball. Stevenage only manage 44% possession on average, meaning they spend the majority of their matches chasing. Against a side like Peterborough, who move the ball quickly through central lanes with players like Archie Collins, this physical exertion will lead to late-game fatigue and defensive gaps.
Furthermore, Peterborough have already proven they can handle high-pressure away environments, evidenced by their recent 2-0 victory at Wycombe. While Stevenage rely on a direct, right-sided approach and aerial duels, they lack the finishing clinical edge to capitalize on the second balls they fight so hard to win. Harry Leonard and Lisbie provide a more sophisticated threat for the visitors, capable of utilizing through balls to bypass Stevenage’s rigid but slow central defense.
Taking Peterborough in the “Draw No Bet” market provides a necessary safety net. Given Stevenage’s habit of drawing matches—they have been level at half-time in seven straight League One fixtures—the risk of a stalemate is high. However, the technical gulf and the home side’s goal drought make an away victory the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong?
Stevenage are physically dominant in the air, winning 28.4 aerials per game compared to Peterborough’s 20.2. If the match descends into a stop-start scrap filled with set pieces, Peterborough’s known vulnerability in defending dead-ball situations could be exposed. An early goal from a Carl Piergianni header could allow Stevenage to retreat into a low block that frustrates the visitors for 90 minutes.
Correct Score Lean
Stevenage 0-1 Peterborough
This selection aligns with Stevenage’s severe scoring drought and their pattern of low-scoring home fixtures. They have failed to find the net more than once in seven straight games, and Peterborough’s 80% passing accuracy allows them to control the tempo and limit Stevenage’s opportunities. A single moment of quality from Harry Leonard is likely to be the difference in a tight, tactical encounter where the home side lacks the creative spark to respond.
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