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Can AFC Wimbledon’s back-three platform disrupt Stevenage’s push near the top? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Stevenage occupy 4th place and boast a significantly stronger defensive record, conceding just 1.0 goal per game compared to Wimbledon's 1.45. The visitors have already beaten Wimbledon 5-1 this season, and the hosts enter this fixture in poor form, having won only once in their last nine league matches. With Jamie Reid providing a clinical edge upfront, Stevenage are better positioned to capitalize on the tactical gaps left by Wimbledon's wing-backs. While festive matches are unpredictable, the 8-point gap and historical dominance this season suggest an away win is the most logical outcome.
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This selection aligns with Stevenage's defensive discipline and Wimbledon's recent struggles in front of goal. Stevenage have conceded only 15 goals in 19 games, indicating they are difficult to break down. Conversely, Wimbledon have struggled for wins lately, and a tight, low-scoring encounter is expected given the cold conditions and the high volume of fouls likely to disrupt the flow of play. A single goal, potentially from leading scorer Jamie Reid, could be sufficient for the visitors to secure a professional victory and maintain their push for the top spots in the table.
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AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Predictions and Best Bets
Wimbledon vs Stevenage — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Stevenage arrive as favorites due to their superior league position and strong defensive metrics compared to the hosts.
Low scoring outcomes lead the pricing, reflecting Stevenage’s tendency to keep things tight at the back.
- Stevenage’s defensive platform has been steadier: 15 conceded in 19 League One matches (1.0 per game) compared with Wimbledon’s 29 conceded in 20 (1.45), a gap that shapes transitions.
- Wimbledon’s league form has been sticky, with just one win in their last nine League One games, a run that can turn the first messy spell into a test of nerve.
- The recent head-to-head has swung Stevenage’s way: they have avoided defeat in 13 of the last 14 meetings with Wimbledon across all competitions, including a 5-1 win on 02/09/2025.
Defensive Comparison: Goals Conceded per Game
A look at how many times each backline has been breached on average throughout the League One season.
They have shipped just 15 goals in 19 games, one of the most resilient records in the division.
With 29 goals conceded in 20 matches, the home side struggles to maintain a clean sheet average.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
Despite the gap in the table, both sides create a similar number of opportunities per 90 minutes.
A reliable output that has helped them climb to 4th in the standings.
The Dons remain dangerous in the final third, matching the visitors for volume.
Boxing Day at the Cherry Red Records Stadium has a habit of feeling like two matches in one: the festive warmth in the stands, and then the cold reality on the pitch. This time it’s AFC Wimbledon hosting Stevenage in round 22 of the 2025-26 League One campaign, with the table offering a clear bit of context before a ball is kicked.
Wimbledon come into it in 13th place on 27 points from 20 games, having lost 3-1 at Northampton Town last weekend. Stevenage arrive fourth with 35 points from 19, and they were held to a 2-2 draw at home by Burton Albion in their most recent outing. There’s plenty of football left in the season, but the gap is already the sort that shapes how both teams view a game like this: for one, a chance to climb away from the traffic; for the other, a chance to keep nudging the pace-setters.
History between these two in recent years has rarely been dull, either. Earlier this season Stevenage ran out 5-1 winners against Wimbledon, and there have been tight games mixed in with the swings: a 1-1 at Plough Lane in 2023, a 3-2 Stevenage win at Wimbledon in 2023, and even a 4-0 Wimbledon win back in 2018. So yes, patterns exist — but so do plot twists.
And with the thermometer hovering around 5°, this has the feel of a match where decision-making, set-piece detail, and who copes best with messy moments could matter as much as any grand plan.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Wimbledon’s possible XI reads like a back three with wing-backs: Bishop in goal; Ogundere, Lewis and Johnson as the three centre-backs; Asiimwe and Seddon likely providing the width; Reeves and Smith as the central platform; then Browne, Orsi-Dadomo and Hippolyte as the front trio.
On paper, that shape can give Wimbledon a good balance between security and threat. With three centre-halves behind them, the wide players can step higher without the same fear of leaving the back door open. It can also create natural angles for building play, especially if Reeves and Smith can receive and turn rather than being pinned facing their own goal. Further forward, Browne’s listed role as an attacking midfielder/forward suggests he can float between lines rather than staying glued to a touchline, while Hippolyte has the profile of a wide midfielder who can work both directions. Orsi-Dadomo sits as the central striker in that trio, and his job is pretty blunt: occupy centre-backs, bring others into play, and be ready when the delivery finally arrives.
Stevenage’s possible line-up suggests a back four: Marschall; James-Wildin, Sweeney, Piergianni and Freestone; Houghton, Doherty and Thompson in midfield; with Campbell, Patterson and Reid ahead of them.
That midfield three is where the tone can be set. Houghton is listed as a defensive midfielder and tends to be the organiser in front of the back line. Thompson is a central midfielder, while Doherty is named in the XI but isn’t expanded elsewhere here; even so, that trio hints at a unit built to compete for second balls and keep the game from becoming chaotic in Stevenage’s defensive third. Up top, Reid is the standout scorer in the squad list with eight League One goals, and he’s likely to be central to how Stevenage turn possession into something sharper.
Wimbledon also have Sam Hutchinson listed as injured with a back injury. That matters in a squad where he’s shown as a defensive midfielder/centre-back option, even if his minutes so far have been minimal.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Wimbledon do go with the back three, their first big question is where they want the game to live. A back three plus two wing-backs can tempt a team into being too passive: lots of bodies behind the ball, lots of sideways passes, and not enough presence in the final third. But it can also be an aggressive platform if the wing-backs step onto Stevenage’s full-backs early and Reeves and Smith jump onto the first midfield pass.
One clear tactical picture is Wimbledon trying to force Stevenage wide. With three centre-backs, you can afford to let the ball travel outside, because you still have numbers in the box when the cross comes. The key is the timing of the pressure: if Asiimwe and Seddon arrive late, Stevenage’s wide players can face forward and pick passes; if they arrive on time, those wide areas become traps rather than launchpads.
Stevenage, in turn, can try to pull that back three apart. A front three against three centre-backs is a classic stalemate — unless the wide forwards stay high and wide and make the outside centre-backs defend the channels. That’s where Campbell and Patterson can be awkward opponents: if they receive early and drive at wing-backs, Wimbledon’s wide players are suddenly defending towards their own goal rather than thinking about the next overlap.
The central battle matters just as much. Reeves and Smith for Wimbledon up against Houghton and company for Stevenage has the makings of a “who blinks first?” contest. If Wimbledon can get Reeves receiving on the half-turn and feed Browne between the lines, their front three can play closer together and make Stevenage’s centre-backs step out — and that’s when Orsi-Dadomo’s movement becomes important, not only to finish but to make space for the runners.
If Stevenage win that midfield duel, the match can tilt into the pattern they’ll be comfortable with: keep Wimbledon at arm’s length, then break with purpose when the ball turns over. Wimbledon’s wing-backs pushing on is a double-edged sword. It helps them sustain attacks, but it also creates the exact pockets Stevenage can attack on transitions.
This could also become a set-piece-feeling game even without anyone saying it out loud. Cold conditions, a busy festive schedule, and two teams who don’t dominate possession tends to produce a lot of restarts: throw-ins, corners, free-kicks, and long spells where the ball isn’t rolling enough to settle anyone’s nerves.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table-level reality: Stevenage have 35 points from 19 games, while Wimbledon have 27 from 20. That gap matters because it usually shows up in the small moments — the sides who are higher up tend to make fewer costly mistakes and manage game states a touch better.
Defensively, Stevenage’s League One record of 15 goals conceded in 19 matches works out at exactly 1.0 conceded per game, while Wimbledon have conceded 29 in 20, which is 1.45 per game. In a match that could hinge on transitions and set plays, that difference suggests Stevenage have generally been tougher to open up and less likely to give opponents repeat opportunities.
The underlying “how the game looks” metrics also point towards a fairly even share of the ball. Wimbledon’s listed possession is 46% and Stevenage’s is 47%, with pass accuracy at 70% for Wimbledon and 69% for Stevenage in the broader passing totals. That’s not the profile of a match where one side pins the other back for 90 minutes. It’s more like a contest of phases: short spells of control, then turnover football, then a reset.
In chance-creation terms, Wimbledon have taken 268 shots across 27 matches (9.93 per game), while Stevenage have 255 across 25 (10.2 per game). The volumes are similar, and so is the shot geography: around two-thirds of attempts coming from inside the box for both teams. That matters because it hints that neither side is living off low-probability pot-shots; when chances come, they tend to be in areas where a single lapse can hurt.
Finally, there’s a form line that hangs over Wimbledon: they’ve won just one of their last nine league games. That doesn’t decide a match on its own, but it can shape the mood of it — especially if the first 20 minutes are scratchy and the home crowd starts willing the team into something more direct.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment might be whether Wimbledon can land an early spell of territorial pressure without being punished for it. If Asiimwe and Seddon push on and Wimbledon start winning second balls, Stevenage’s back four could get pinned deep enough that Reid becomes isolated. But if Stevenage play through the first wave and get Campbell or Patterson running into space, those same wing-back positions can suddenly look like open doors.
Another swing factor is how Stevenage handle Wimbledon’s three-man forward line. Browne and Hippolyte operating either side of Orsi-Dadomo gives Wimbledon options: go direct into the striker and play off him, or try to slip passes into the channels for the wide forwards. If Stevenage’s centre-backs step out to compete early, the gaps can appear behind them; if they hold their line, Wimbledon may need to be patient and create from wider areas instead.
Keep an eye on discipline and rhythm, too. Wimbledon have 41 yellow cards in the broader numbers shown, while Stevenage have 55. If the game becomes stop-start — fouls, tackles, restarts — that can favour the team who are more comfortable turning it into a series of mini-battles rather than a flowing contest.
And then there’s Reid. Eight League One goals from an attacking role is the sort of output that changes how defenders behave. Even when he isn’t getting touches, he forces decisions: do you track him tight and risk being pulled out, or do you hold your shape and risk giving him half a yard?
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A single early goal can flip the entire tactical script, especially in a match where both sides sit around the mid-40s for possession. An ugly deflection, a set-piece scramble, or one mistimed press can turn a carefully planned approach into a frantic chase — and Boxing Day games have a habit of producing exactly that sort of chaos.
Best Bet for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
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Stevenage to win
The case for an away victory is built primarily on the consistent defensive gap between these two sides and their respective trajectories in League One. Stevenage enter the Boxing Day fixture sitting in 4th place, and their league standing is underpinned by a robust defensive structure that has conceded just 15 goals across 19 matches. This average of exactly 1.0 goal conceded per game stands in contrast to AFC Wimbledon, who have struggled to keep the ball out of their net, conceding 29 goals in 20 matches—an average of 1.45 per outing.
Tactically, Stevenage’s setup often relies on a disciplined midfield three, featuring a dedicated defensive anchor. This structure is designed to absorb pressure and win second balls, which is crucial against a Wimbledon side that frequently utilizes a back-three system with wing-backs. While Wimbledon’s formation allows for width through players like Asiimwe and Seddon, it leaves them vulnerable to transitions if those wing-backs are caught high up the pitch. Stevenage have already demonstrated an ability to exploit these gaps this season, having secured a dominant 5-1 victory in their previous meeting.
Furthermore, momentum is a significant factor. Wimbledon have struggled for consistency, managing only one win in their last nine league assignments. While they maintain a respectable share of possession (46%) and create a similar volume of shots to Stevenage (9.93 per game compared to 10.2), their inability to convert those efforts into points is reflected in the 8-point gap between the teams in the table. Stevenage also possess the most clinical individual threat on the pitch in Jamie Reid, who has netted eight goals this campaign. In a game likely to be played in cold, stop-start conditions, the presence of a proven goalscorer and a superior defensive record often proves the difference between a draw and a win.
What could go wrong The primary risk lies in the unpredictable nature of the festive schedule and the “two matches in one” atmosphere of Boxing Day. If Wimbledon’s back three can successfully pin Stevenage back early and capitalize on a set-piece or a moment of individual brilliance from Browne or Orsi-Dadomo, they could force Stevenage into a more desperate, open game. Additionally, both teams have relatively similar possession and shot metrics, meaning a single clinical finish from the home side could disrupt the visitors’ defensive rhythm.
Correct score lean
0-1
Stevenage’s defensive solidity is the cornerstone of their success this season. With an average of only 1.0 goal conceded per game and a midfield unit built to prevent chaos in their defensive third, they are well-equipped to manage a narrow lead. Wimbledon have found it difficult to break down top-tier defenses during their recent run of one win in nine games. Given the expected cold conditions and the high number of fouls and restarts—evidenced by the teams’ combined 96 yellow cards—this match is likely to be a low-scoring, disciplined affair. A single goal from a player like Jamie Reid is often enough for this Stevenage side to secure all three points.
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