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Can Mallorca’s Son Moix grit derail Sevilla’s push for momentum? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Both teams have conceded 36 goals in 24 matches, maintaining a poor average of 1.5 per game. Mallorca have scored in nine straight home games, while Sevilla’s technical width and long-shot capability consistently test defences. Tactical mismatches at both ends make a clean sheet for either side highly improbable.
Read Rationale ▾
Mallorca’s Son Moix reliability guarantees a home goal through Muriqi’s aerial threat, but Sevilla’s superior possession (54.5%) and shot volume (11.6 per game) should ensure a response. With both sides allowing 1.5 goals per match, a competitive 1-1 draw aligns perfectly with the current form and historical scoring patterns.
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Mallorca vs Sevilla Predictions and Best Bets
Mallorca vs Sevilla — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample BetMGM odds for round 22.
Mallorca have lost only two of their 10 home matches, while Sevilla arrive as underdogs in the 1X2 pricing.
Both sides have conceded 36 goals this season. Implied probabilities suggest a high likelihood of both teams finding the net.
Vedat Muriqi leads the anytime scorer market with 14 goals, while Akor Adams is Sevilla’s main threat with 6 goals.
- Home edge that matters: Mallorca have lost only two of their 10 home league matches, taking 16 points, and they’ve scored 1+ goal in nine straight home La Liga games.
- Muriqi is carrying the threat: Vedat Muriqi has 14 goals in La Liga and wins 4.6 aerial duels per game, giving Mallorca a direct route to pressure and chaos.
- Similar goal pain, different styles: Across 24 matches each, both Mallorca and Sevilla have conceded 36 goals (1.5 per game) — a warning sign for anyone trying to “manage” this fixture.
Tactical Profile: Average Possession
Sevilla look to control rhythm through possession, while Mallorca rely on direct, high-event aerial duels.
Happy to spend spells without the ball, focusing on long passes and aerial duels.
Aiming to build rhythm with 424.5 passes per game and width on the right.
The Muriqi Factor: Aerial Duels Won
Mallorca’s offensive route is vertical, led by the league’s most dominant aerial target.
Vedat Muriqi individually wins 4.6 aerials, giving them a consistent route to goal.
Slightly trailing Mallorca, Sevilla prefer low build-up but maintain competitive aerial stats.
Monday night at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix has the feel of a pressure fixture. Mallorca are 18th with 21 points, only one point off 17th-placed Getafe, and they badly need the ground to feel like home again after a rough run: beaten in three of the last four league matches, including a 3-0 loss at Atlético Madrid.
Sevilla arrive 13th with 24 points, aiming to back up their latest league win, but their own recent streak has been scrappy. That sets up a proper clash of moods — Mallorca desperate, Sevilla determined to steady the ship.
Kick-off is 20:00.
Team News & Lineups
Mallorca (Manager: Jagoba Arrasate)
- Manu Morlanes (unknown injury) — listed as a concern
- I. Cuéllar Sacristán suspended
Probable XI (4-2-3-1):
Román; Maffeo, Valjent, López, Mojica; Costa, Mascarell; Joseph, Darder, Virgili; Muriqi
What it means: If Morlanes misses out, the midfield rotation looks thinner. The plan still screams “feed Muriqi early and often”, with runners trying to pick up scraps around him.
Sevilla (Manager: Matías Almeyda)
- No injuries/suspensions listed in the facts for Sevilla.
Probable XI:
Vlachodimos; Carmona, Castrín, Salas; Sánchez, Agoumé, Mendy, Suazo; Fernández; Romero, Adams
What it means: Sevilla’s front pairing gives them two different problems to throw at Mallorca — Akor Adams as the finisher (6 goals, 2 assists) and Isaac Romero to stretch and scrap. But it also asks their wide players to be disciplined, because Mallorca can punch through wide areas.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Mallorca | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| League position (points) | 18th (21) | 13th (24) |
| Goals scored | 24 (21 games) | 28 (21 games) |
| Shots per game | 10.4 | 11.6 |
| Possession | 44.3% | 54.5% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.3% | 82.1% |
| Aerials won | 16.2 | 15.1 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
This screams contrast. Sevilla want more of the ball and build rhythm through possession. Mallorca are happier without it, leaning into long balls, width, and aerial battles — and they’ve got the numbers to back that fight.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Mallorca’s direct punch vs Sevilla’s possession
Mallorca don’t pretend to be a keep-ball side. They struggle to keep possession, they spend spells “in their own half”, and they look to go long and wide. That’s not pretty, but it’s purposeful — especially with Muriqi winning 4.6 aerial duels per game. If Mallorca can turn Sevilla’s centre-backs, pin them, and force second balls, the whole stadium gets loud and the match turns into a scrap.
Sevilla, by contrast, have the numbers of a team that wants to play: 54.5% possession, 424.5 passes per game, and a clear preference for attacking down the right with width. They’re also very strong at stealing the ball, which matters here because Mallorca can be forced into rushed clearances and loose touches under pressure.
Where Sevilla can hurt Mallorca
Mallorca are weak defending attacks down the wings and very weak defending against long shots. That’s an open invitation for Sevilla to stretch the pitch, then test from the edge when Mallorca’s block gets dragged about. With Rubén Vargas supplying (4 assists) and Carmona chipping in (3 assists), Sevilla have the tools to create those cut-backs and second-phase shots.
Where Mallorca can hurt Sevilla
Sevilla are weak defending counter attacks, weak at avoiding individual errors, and weak defending against skilful players. That’s danger if Mallorca win the ball and break quickly into the spaces Sevilla leave behind. Virgili (4 assists) and Darder can make that first pass count, and once Muriqi is engaged, everything becomes a duel — and Mallorca like duels.
Key Moments to Watch
- The wing battle: Mallorca can be exposed out wide, but they also play with width. Whoever pins the other’s full-backs first sets the tone.
- Long shots and second balls: Mallorca are very vulnerable to efforts from range; Sevilla actively create long-shot opportunities. That’s a live wire all night.
- Discipline in dangerous areas: Sevilla struggle to avoid fouling in dangerous zones, and they’re very weak at avoiding offside — little details that can kill momentum.
What could go wrong?
For Mallorca, one sloppy spell defending wide areas can snowball quickly, especially if Sevilla start landing shots from distance. For Sevilla, over-committing to possession invites the counter — and if they gift transitions or make individual errors, Muriqi only needs one clean delivery to make it a long night.
Best Bet for Mallorca vs Sevilla
Can Mallorca’s Son Moix grit derail Sevilla’s push for momentum?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home Form | Mallorca: 2 losses in 10 home games | Back Mallorca |
| Attack | Vedat Muriqi: 14 La Liga goals | Anytime Scorer |
| Defense | Both teams: 36 goals conceded | Back BTTS |
| History | Mallorca: 9 straight home games scoring | Home Over 0.5 |
Both Teams to Score
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix hosts a fixture defined by a massive contrast in tactical identity but a startling similarity in defensive vulnerability. Mallorca enter this Monday night clash with a formidable home record, having lost only two of their ten league matches on their own turf. Their offensive reliability at home is undisputed, as they have found the net in nine consecutive La Liga games at Son Moix. With Vedat Muriqi leading the line—boasting 14 goals and a dominant 4.6 aerial duels won per game—Mallorca have the direct tools to breach any defence that struggles with physical pressure.
Sevilla arrive with a technical profile that demands possession, averaging 54.5% compared to Mallorca’s 44.3%. While Sevilla aim to build rhythm through 424.5 passes per game and width on the right, they remain defensively fragile. In fact, both teams have conceded exactly 36 goals across 24 matches this season, an average of 1.5 per game. This shared defensive leakiness is the primary driver for a high-probability “Both Teams to Score” scenario. Mallorca are particularly vulnerable to long shots and attacks down the wings, which plays directly into Sevilla’s strength of stretching the pitch and testing keepers from range.
Conversely, Sevilla are weak at defending counter-attacks and avoiding individual errors. Mallorca thrive in these messy, transitional moments, using the aerial dominance of Muriqi to knock down second balls for runners like Darder and Virgili. Given that Mallorca almost always score at home and Sevilla possess the technical quality to exploit Mallorca’s wide defensive gaps, the data points directly toward both goalkeepers being breached.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk is a tactical stalemate where Sevilla’s high possession leads to safe lateral passing rather than penetration. If Mallorca successfully pin Sevilla’s full-backs and neutralise the wing play, the match could devolve into a low-event physical scrap. Additionally, if Manu Morlanes misses out through injury, Mallorca’s transition speed from midfield to attack may be significantly hampered.
Correct Score Lean
Mallorca 1-1 Sevilla
This scoreline respects Mallorca’s strong home status while acknowledging Sevilla’s superior technical ability and possession-based threat. Mallorca have scored in nine straight home games, making a home goal almost a statistical certainty. However, their weakness against long shots and wide deliveries suggests Sevilla will find an equaliser. Since both teams concede an average of 1.5 goals per match and Mallorca have drawn several home fixtures, a 1-1 deadlock reflects the tactical struggle between Mallorca’s direct aerial punch and Sevilla’s methodical ball retention. It is the most balanced outcome given the defensive records provided.
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