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Can Girona’s possession control tame Osasuna’s aerial power and set-piece threat at Montilivi? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Girona have a superior recent head-to-head record at home against Osasuna, winning the last two encounters at the Estadi Montilivi comfortably. While Girona have been inconsistent, Osasuna’s away form is the poorest in the league, with zero wins from nine road trips. Osasuna have also failed to score in seven of those nine away matches. Girona’s ability to create chances from distance should exploit a specific weakness in the Osasuna defense. Given the visitors' struggles to produce results away from home, the hosts are well-positioned to take all three points.
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This selection aligns with Girona’s history of keeping Osasuna quiet at home, having won 2-0 and 4-0 in their most recent meetings at this venue. Osasuna’s lack of goals on the road—averaging just 0.33 goals per away game—makes a clean sheet for the hosts a realistic prospect despite their general defensive issues. Girona average nearly two goals per game in this specific matchup and should find enough openings through Tsygankov and Vanat to secure a two-goal cushion against a travel-weary Osasuna side.
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Girona vs Osasuna Predictions and Best Bets
Girona vs Osasuna — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot featuring implied probabilities from listed prices.
Girona hold the home advantage while Osasuna travel with a poor away record this term.
Low-margin outcomes are priced as the most probable scenarios at Montilivi.
- Girona’s defensive problem is constant: 34 goals conceded in 18 league matches leaves them with the worst concession record outside the relegation zone and keeps every match on a knife-edge.
- Osasuna arrive with sharper recent output: they’ve scored 7 goals across their last five matches, nearly double Girona’s 4 over the same span, raising the pressure on Girona’s back line.
- The match profile screams physical and messy: across the last five matches, the teams combine for 101 fouls and 19 yellow cards, making set pieces and discipline unavoidable storylines.
Volume Comparison: Shots per League Game
Both teams show a consistent willingness to test the goalkeeper, with over two-thirds of attempts coming from inside the box.
Girona rely on short passing to build openings, resulting in steady shot volume across their fixtures.
Osasuna’s more direct style and reliance on long balls generates a slightly higher frequency of total attempts.
Defensive Metrics: Goals Conceded per Game
Defensive fragility has been a recurring theme for the hosts throughout this campaign.
The hosts have struggled with clean sheets, conceding 34 goals in 18 league matches so far.
Osasuna maintain a tighter defensive record despite their lower position in the form table.
Estadi Montilivi gets another proper Saturday night under the lights as La Liga rolls on, with Girona welcoming Osasuna on 10 January 2026. Kick-off is scheduled for 19:30 CEST, and the setting suits a match that feels less like a routine calendar tick and more like a small hinge in the season.
Girona come into it trying to climb away from the wrong side of the table’s mood music. They sit 15th with 18 points from 18 matches, and the shape of their campaign is written in the numbers: 17 scored, 34 conceded, a goal difference of -17. This is a side that can play, can hurt you, and can still make defending look like an optional extra at the worst possible moments. They’ve just beaten Mallorca 2–1 away, and they’ve also been beaten 3–0 at home by Atlético Madrid. That’s the range.
Osasuna arrive just above them, 12th with 19 points from 18 games, 18 scored and 21 conceded. They drew 1–1 at home to Athletic Club last time out in the league and earlier put Deportivo Alavés away 3–0. They are not floating serenely in mid-table; they are battling to pull away from the relegation shadow and nudge themselves into safer air.
There’s a neat, blunt edge to the headline individual battle too. Viktor Tsygankov is Girona’s most reliable threat and has already hit four league goals. Ante Budimir remains Osasuna’s biggest attacking weapon and has six. The match has the right ingredients for a tense evening: points, pressure, and two teams whose styles invite contact.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Girona’s squad picture has a few hard stops. Azzedine Ounahi is out with a calf injury until 14 February 2026. Donny van de Beek is sidelined with an Achilles tendon rupture until 1 April 2026. C. Portugués Manzanera is out with torn knee ligaments until 30 June 2026. Cristhian Stuani Curbelo is also listed with a calf injury, with no return date.
Even with those absences, Girona have a clear look to them. Their preferred shape is a 4-2-3-1 built around short passing and a right-sided attacking emphasis, while spending plenty of time operating in their own half before trying to break lines. A possible starting eleven is already on the table: Paulo Gazzaniga in goal; Daley Blind, Arnau Martínez López, Vitor de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis, and Álex Moreno across the back; Iván Martín, Thomas Lemar, and Jhon Elmer Solís Romero in midfield; Viktor Tsygankov and Bryan Gil supporting Vladyslav Vanat up front.
That selection, if it lands as written, points towards a Girona side that want technicians on the ball and runners around it. Blind and Vitor Reis bring a calmer passing base, while Martínez and Moreno offer width in the full-back zones. Tsygankov starts as the headline threat, with Vanat already on four league goals and Gil supplying creativity.
Osasuna’s likely shape is described as a pragmatic 4-4-2 that leans into duels and quick transitions, with a double striker system and a combative edge. That fits their broader profile: long balls, a consistent first eleven, and a tendency to play in their own half. The personnel notes are just as important as the diagram. Budimir is the main man up top, Rubén García is a key support act, and Jon Moncayola’s energy in midfield is singled out as central to setting the pace. At the back, Sergio Herrera has played every league minute, and Alejandro Catena is a major figure with two goals and an assist from defence.
How the Match Could Be Played
This has the feel of a match that starts with Girona trying to take a breath through possession and ends with both teams trading punches in transition. Girona’s idea is disciplined possession in a 4-2-3-1, controlling tempo and moving quickly through midfield. That “disciplined” part matters, because Girona’s list of weaknesses is basically a warning label: they are weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, weak at avoiding individual errors, weak at defending set pieces, and weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. In other words, even when Girona have the ball, danger is never far away—because the next phase, the one after the ball is lost, can get chaotic.
Their style of play being rooted in short passes and a right-sided focus means Osasuna can target pressing triggers. When Girona circulate across the back and try to find the right-side outlet, Osasuna’s front line can set traps, forcing hurried passes into midfield zones where duels take over. That’s exactly the type of match Osasuna want. Their approach is described as combative and transition-driven, and their strengths reinforce it: very strong aerial duels, very strong shooting from direct free kicks, and strong attacking set pieces. Girona conceding fouls in dangerous areas is not a minor detail in a fixture like this. It’s an invitation.
But Osasuna are not a flawless away operator. Their own weaknesses are awkwardly relevant to Girona’s one obvious attacking strength: Girona are strong at creating long shot opportunities, while Osasuna are weak defending against long shots. That’s where the game could swing: Girona working the ball into that half-space for Tsygankov or an arriving midfielder, Osasuna dropping off to protect the box, and shots coming in from range. If Girona can make Osasuna turn and run rather than stand and duel, the match changes tone.
The midfield battle sits at the heart of it. Girona’s recent possession numbers hover at 50%, with Osasuna at 48%, so this isn’t a mismatch where one team is expected to monopolise the ball. Girona will still want longer spells, because it keeps their back line from being repeatedly exposed. Osasuna will be perfectly happy without it, because their entire model is built on directness, long balls, and second balls—especially with Budimir’s aerial presence.
The wide areas carry another layer. Girona’s possible XI includes Gil and Tsygankov flanking Vanat, which naturally asks Osasuna’s wide midfielders to do real defensive work. If they tuck in too far, Girona can push full-backs up and create crossing angles. If they stay wide and aggressive, Girona can try to slip passes inside them and run at the centre-backs. Either way, the match keeps circling back to risk management, and neither side is particularly built for calm.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Girona’s season is defined by the goals against column. They’ve conceded 34 in 18 league matches, more than any team outside the relegation zone, and that translates into 1.85 conceded per game across their 20 matches in all competitions tracked here. When a team gives away that volume of chances, every defensive phase becomes a test of concentration rather than a platform.
Osasuna’s recent attacking edge is hard to ignore because it’s so plainly stated: seven goals across their last five matches, almost double Girona’s four in the same span. That matters because both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four league matches. When neither side is shutting the door, the match becomes about who creates the cleaner moments and who gifts the soft ones.
The shot profiles suggest a steady stream of attempts. Girona average 10.8 shots per game and Osasuna 11.71, and both sides get the bulk of those efforts from inside the box: 66% for Girona and 68% for Osasuna. That’s not just volume; it’s where the volume comes from. It means this isn’t likely to be 90 minutes of harmless pot-shots and hopeful punts. The ball spends time in the places where goals happen.
Discipline adds spice. Over the last five matches referenced, these two sides have combined for 19 yellow cards. Over the broader sample, both sit at 44 league yellow cards. Add the stated totals of 101 fouls across the same five-match span, and the picture is a scrappy contest where set pieces keep piling up. That plays directly into Osasuna’s strength on dead balls and Girona’s problems defending them.
Even the tempo markers hint at an edgy rhythm. Girona’s first goal average event time is 38 minutes, Osasuna’s 43. Neither side is reliably blitzing teams early. This can be a match that builds, tightens, then suddenly spins into life.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing moment is set pieces. Osasuna are strong attacking and defending set pieces, and Girona are weak defending them while also being prone to fouls in dangerous areas. If the referee’s whistle becomes the loudest noise in the stadium, Osasuna’s route to threat becomes shorter and more repeatable.
The second is the long-shot corridor. Girona’s strongest attacking trait is creating long shot opportunities, and Osasuna’s defensive weakness includes long shots. If Girona can’t consistently break into the box, they can still build pressure through second balls and edge-of-area shooting—especially if the match turns into a stop-start affair.
The third is the Budimir battle. Osasuna’s game leans into aerial duels and long balls, and Budimir wins 3.5 aerials per game while also taking 2.4 shots per game. Girona’s centre-backs have to manage that physical reference point without panicking into fouls or losing runners around him.
The fourth is whether Girona can keep their own structure when they go behind. Osasuna are described as eager to pull away from the relegation shadow, and they carry a direct, pragmatic identity. If Girona chase the game too openly, their tendency towards individual errors and chance-conceding becomes amplified.
What could go wrong with this read? A single moment can wreck the script. Girona concede a lot and can make individual errors. Osasuna struggle protecting the lead. A match like this can flip twice, and the team playing better football for 70 minutes can still be left staring at the scoreboard in disbelief.
Best Bet for Girona vs Osasuna
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Girona to win
Girona enter this fixture with the tactical and historical upper hand despite their lower league position. While sitting 17th, they have demonstrated a clear ability to handle Osasuna at the Estadi Montilivi, having won their last two home encounters against this opposition by scores of 4-0 and 2-0. This dominance on home turf is bolstered by the fact that Osasuna currently possess the worst away record in the division. The visitors have failed to register a single victory on their travels this season, accumulating seven defeats and two draws from nine matches.
The tactical matchup heavily favors the hosts’ attacking style against Osasuna’s specific defensive frailties. Girona are particularly effective at creating long-shot opportunities, a category where Osasuna are notably weak. With Viktor Tsygankov and Vladyslav Vanat both in scoring form, Girona have the personnel to test a defense that has conceded 17 of its 21 goals this season in the second half. Osasuna’s struggle to maintain intensity away from home means Girona can control the tempo through their preferred short-passing game.
While Girona have had their own defensive struggles, conceding 34 goals so far, their recent form shows resilience with vital 2-1 away wins over Real Sociedad and Mallorca. They remain undefeated this season whenever they score the opening goal. Osasuna’s inability to find the net on the road—failing to score in seven of their nine away league matches—suggests that even a vulnerable Girona defense will not be under constant pressure. The visitors rely heavily on Ante Budimir, but if Girona can limit his aerial impact, Osasuna lack the alternative attacking avenues to exploit Girona’s errors. Given the visitors’ chronic travel sickness and Girona’s historical efficiency in this specific home fixture, a home victory is the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong
Girona’s propensity for individual errors and their league-high 34 goals conceded mean they are always one mistake away from trailing. If Osasuna can utilize their “very strong” aerial duels and set-piece efficiency to grab an early lead, they may find the defensive discipline to frustrate a Girona side that often struggles to break down compact blocks when the pressure of the scoreboard shifts against them.
Correct score lean
Girona 2-0 Osasuna
Girona have a proven track record of keeping clean sheets and scoring multiple goals against Osasuna at the Estadi Montilivi, as seen in their previous 2-0 and 4-0 home wins. Osasuna’s offensive output on the road is the worst in La Liga, with the team failing to score in 78% of their away fixtures this season. Girona’s attacking duo of Tsygankov and Vanat provides enough quality to break through an Osasuna defense that typically tires in the second half. A 2-0 scoreline reflects both Girona’s home dominance in this matchup and Osasuna’s consistent struggles to find the net away from home.
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