bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Girona vs Atletico Madrid Predictions Atlético Madrid head to Girona on Sunday afternoon with a simple-sounding mission that rarely stays simple in La Liga: keep the run going. Diego Simeone’s side are chasing a fourth straight win in all competitions, and they arrive as the division’s fourth-placed outfit, nine points behind leaders Barcelona. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
▾
Swansea have secured four straight home wins and recently beat West Brom 1-0 at this stadium. The visitors' nine-match away losing streak makes them hard to back.
▾
This was the exact scoreline when the sides met on New Year's Day. Swansea's defensive stability at home suggests another narrow, low-scoring victory is probable.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Girona vs Atletico Madrid Predictions and Best Bets
- Table gap, season context: Atlético Madrid are fourth with 34 points after 17 matches, while Girona are 18th with 15 points from 16, shaping very different game-states.
- Goals profile clash: Atlético have scored 30 and conceded 16 in 17 league games, while Girona have scored 15 and conceded 30 in 16 — a stark contrast in weekly margins.
- Where chances might come from: Atlético average 12.94 shots per match with a 14% conversion rate, while Girona average 9.63 shots with a 10% conversion rate, stressing efficiency.
Match Tempo: Games With 3+ Goals
A simple snapshot of how often each side’s league matches turn into higher-scoring affairs.
Over half of Girona’s league fixtures have finished with at least three goals, so scorelines can open up quickly.
Atletico’s league games land in the 0–2 goal bracket more often, hinting at longer stretches of control and fewer wild swings.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheet Rate
Clean sheets show how often a side can see a league match out without conceding — a blunt but useful marker of control.
A low clean-sheet rate suggests opponents are finding a way onto the scoreboard in most league weeks.
That higher rate fits a side that can protect the box for long spells and turn matches into a grind for the opposition.
Attacking Reliability: Matches With 1+ Goal Scored
This compares how often each team gets on the scoresheet in league action, regardless of the final result.
Girona have scored in over two-thirds of their league matches, but there are still enough blanks to make rhythm a storyline.
Scoring in almost every league outing points to an attack that can produce in different game states, even away from home.
Can Girona’s home resilience slow Atlético Madrid’s Sunday momentum?
Girona, meanwhile, are living closer to the sharp end than they’d like. They sit 18th after 16 matches, with 15 points gathered so far. That gap between the two clubs is the obvious headline, but the more interesting bit is how the game might feel when it actually starts: Girona’s matches have had 2.81 goals per game on average this season, while Atlético’s sit at 2.71. In other words, neither side is living exclusively in the land of 0–0s and grim survival. There’s room here for plot twists.
A fixture like this often becomes a test of discipline — not just the card kind, the positional kind. Can Girona keep their distances tight enough to stop Atlético’s attacks from turning into repeat waves? And can Atlético control the game in a way that suits their away record, rather than getting dragged into the kind of open contest that suits nobody with a leaky column? Sunday afternoon at Girona has all the ingredients for a match that changes mood quickly. A nervy opening. A spell where Atlético probe and Girona hang on. One moment that flips it. Then the second game begins.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Girona’s possible XI reads like a conventional back four with a clear double pivot: Gazzaniga in goal; Martinez, Reis, Blind and Moreno across the defence; Witsel and Martin as the central pair; Tsygankov, Lemar and Gil across the line behind Vanat.
That selection hints at a side trying to balance craft with caution. Witsel and Martin suggest Girona will want some control through the middle rather than simply launching it forward, while the trio of Tsygankov, Lemar and Gil points to a team that can play with the ball and find pockets if Atlético give them breathing space. Vanat, as the single striker, looks set to be the reference point — the one Girona need to connect to, especially when Atlético’s press nudges the game away from their preferred rhythm.
Atlético’s possible lineup is equally clear in its structure: Oblak; Molina, Pubill, Hancko and Ruggeri; Simeone, Barrios, Koke and Gonzalez; Sorloth and Alvarez.
That looks like a classic Simeone template: a back four, a four-man midfield line, and a front two built to make life uncomfortable. With Alvarez and Sorloth together, Atlético have two forwards who can occupy defenders and keep the centre-backs honest. The midfield quartet also suggests Atlético can shift between squeezing the middle and jumping out to press wide, depending on where Girona try to build.
The contrast in league positions is stark — Atlético are fourth with 34 points from 17 matches, while Girona are 18th with 15 points from 16 — but the more immediate contrast is what each side’s likely set-up says about the game state they’re preparing for. Girona’s shape hints at a desire to build and play. Atlético’s hints at an ability to decide whether the match is calm or chaotic.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Girona try to play through Witsel and Martin early, Atlético’s first job will be to make those passes awkward. With a front two, Simeone’s side can angle their pressure to cut off the simple ball into midfield, forcing Girona to either go wide to Martinez and Moreno or clip it into Vanat. That’s often where matches like this start to tilt: not in spectacular tackles, but in whether the “safe” pass stays safe for more than five minutes.
Girona’s attacking line-up suggests they’ll want their three behind the striker to receive on the half-turn. Tsygankov and Gil can stretch the pitch, Lemar can knit things together, and Vanat gives them someone to aim at when the build-up stalls. The question is whether those three receive facing goal or facing their own box. Atlético’s defensive profile suggests they’re comfortable denying the former. They concede 0.94 goals per match across the league season and keep clean sheets in 35% of their matches, which points to a side that can manage games without needing to chase them.
In possession, Atlético’s 54% average tells you they’re not solely a low-block team waiting for scraps. They can have the ball, and the likely midfield of Barrios and Koke in particular hints at spells of control. But there’s a key nuance in their numbers: away from home, Atlético average 1.00 goal scored and 1.13 conceded per match. That split suggests their road games can be tighter, a little less fluent, and more vulnerable to moments than their dominant home record might imply.
That’s where Girona’s plan becomes crucial. Girona’s overall possession average is 47%, rising to 50% at home, which hints at a side that will try to play rather than simply survive. If they can keep the ball, they can at least choose where Atlético have to do their defending. Girona also draw a lot — six draws in 16 matches — and their home record includes three draws from eight. If the match sits in that “neither side fully takes control” space, Girona will be happy enough to keep it level deep into the afternoon.
The wide areas feel like the clearest battleground from the likely XIs. Girona have full-backs in Martinez and Moreno with natural passing options ahead of them, and Atlético have Molina and Ruggeri flanking their own back line. If Girona can lure Atlético’s wide midfielders infield, there’s space to play around the corner; if Atlético keep their distances, Girona might find the wings are corridors that lead nowhere.
Transitions are the other big theme. Girona’s season totals — 15 scored and 30 conceded — paint the picture of a side whose games can swing, sometimes too easily. Conceding 1.88 per match is a heavy burden, especially against a team that scores 1.76 per match. But Girona are not a side that never lands a punch: they score in 69% of their league matches, and they’ve seen both teams score in 63% of them. That suggests that even when Girona don’t dominate, they can still find moments.
For Atlético, the balance is between control and incision. They average 12.94 shots per match, which indicates they usually generate pressure. Girona average 9.63 shots, which is more modest, but not negligible. If Girona can keep the shot count close for an hour, the match becomes a contest of nerve and finishing rather than a siege.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the simplest measure of where each season has gone: Atlético have 30 goals scored and 16 conceded after 17 matches, while Girona have 15 scored and 30 conceded after 16. That’s not just a gap in quality; it’s a gap in weekly experience. Atlético are used to operating with a margin. Girona often aren’t.
Zoom in a level and the scoring rates sharpen the picture. Atlético score 1.76 goals per match and concede 0.94, suggesting a side that usually wins the balance of chances even when the game isn’t flashy. Girona score 0.94 and concede 1.88, which is the profile of a team that need things to go right more often than they do.
The tempo numbers are intriguing because they’re similar: Girona games average 2.81 total goals, Atlético’s 2.71. That suggests the match could carry a fairly normal La Liga rhythm on the scoreboard — but the way you get there might look very different. Girona’s total is fuelled by the goals they concede; Atlético’s by their ability to win tighter matches without losing control.
Then there’s the “how often do they both score?” marker. Girona’s BTTS rate is 63%, Atlético’s is 59%. That doesn’t decide anything on its own, but it hints at a match where both teams can find a way onto the scoresheet — especially if Girona can make Atlético’s away split show itself. Atlético keep clean sheets in 35% of league matches, but away from home that drops to 25%, which matters in a game where Girona’s best hope is to stay in contact.
Finally, shot numbers reinforce the likely flow. Atlético’s 12.94 shots per match and 14% conversion rate point to a team that can generate and finish chances. Girona’s 9.63 shots per match with a 10% conversion rate suggests fewer opportunities and a need to be sharper when they do arrive. That’s the sort of detail that shapes the match: Girona can’t afford to waste their good moments, and Atlético will try to turn the game into a steady drip of them.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first 15 minutes will matter more than usual for Girona’s mood. They score a goal every 96 minutes on average, so early chances are precious; at the same time, Atlético score first in 94% of their league matches, which is a warning label for any side trying to grow into the contest slowly. If Girona can get through that opening phase without giving Atlético a clean look, the game can settle into something more negotiable.
Watch the space around Witsel and Martin. If Atlético can force Girona’s double pivot to play square and backwards, the home side’s attacking three will start receiving the ball under pressure, facing their own goal, and the match will look like Girona trying to escape rather than create. If Girona can turn those midfield touches into forward connections — even a few — Tsygankov, Lemar and Gil can at least make Atlético defend facing their own goal, which changes everything.
At the other end, pay attention to how Girona deal with Alvarez and Sorloth as a pair. A front two can pin centre-backs and open lanes for midfield runners, and Atlético have midfielders who can arrive from deep. Girona’s clean-sheet rate is 13% overall and 25% at home, which tells you shut-outs are rare. The real swing factor is whether they can survive the spells where Atlético camp around the box without conceding a soft second-phase chance.
And then there’s the blunt reality of conceding. Girona concede a goal every 48 minutes on average. That’s not a moral judgement, it’s just a match-state problem: it means Girona are often playing the game while also wrestling with the scoreline. If Atlético score, Girona’s ability to respond becomes the story. Girona have scored in 69% of matches and seen both teams score in 63%, so they’ve had enough games where they don’t disappear entirely.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A single moment — a mistake in build-up, a deflection, a misjudged header — can bend a match away from the tidy patterns we expect. Atlético’s away numbers also suggest variability: 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses on the road isn’t a one-note record. And Girona’s home draws show they can keep games in a grey area longer than their league position implies. Fine margins are not a cliché here; they’re the match.
Best Bet for Girona vs Atlético Madrid
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
Atlético Madrid to win
Atlético Madrid enter this fixture as significant favorites based on a combination of superior league standing, recent head-to-head dominance, and contrasting defensive records. Sitting 4th in La Liga with 34 points from 17 matches, Diego Simeone’s side is operating at a different level than 18th-placed Girona, who have managed just 15 points from 16 games. The gap is further highlighted by the scoring and defensive profiles of both teams: Atlético score an average of 1.76 goals per match and concede only 0.94, while Girona concede nearly double that amount at 1.88 goals per match. This defensive fragility for the hosts is particularly concerning against an Atlético attack that averages nearly 13 shots per game and has seen Alexander Sørloth and Julián Álvarez develop a potent partnership.
The historical context also strongly favors the visitors. In the last eight head-to-head encounters, Atlético Madrid have won six times. Most notably, they recorded two convincing victories over Girona last season, winning 3-0 at home and 4-0 at the Estadi Montilivi. In fact, Girona have lost six of their last seven league matches against Atlético. While Girona are relatively solid at home, collecting 11 of their 15 points at the Montilivi, they face an Atlético side chasing a fourth straight win in all competitions and one that has scored in their last six away league matches against this opponent. Given that Girona have kept clean sheets in just 13% of their matches this season and concede a goal every 48 minutes on average, Atlético’s tactical discipline and clinical finishing should be enough to secure three points.
What could go wrong Atlético’s away form has shown some inconsistency, with only two wins from eight league matches on the road (2 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). Girona are currently unbeaten in their last five home league matches and managed a 1-1 draw against Real Madrid at the Montilivi recently, suggesting they can frustrate elite opposition when their distances are tight.
Correct score lean
0-2
Rationale
A 0-2 scoreline is consistent with Atlético Madrid’s defensive stability and Girona’s offensive struggles. Atlético have kept clean sheets in 35% of their matches this season and possess one of the league’s most secure defenses, conceding less than a goal per game. Conversely, Girona average less than one goal scored per match (0.94) and have a modest 10% shot conversion rate. Considering that seven of the last eight head-to-head league meetings saw Atlético score two or more goals, and given Girona’s 1.88 goals conceded per game, a controlled two-goal victory for the visitors aligns with the statistical trends.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
