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RCDE under the lights: can Espanyol snap their 2026 win drought, or do Alavés turn survival grit into a statement? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Alavés have suffered seven consecutive away defeats and average just 0.40 goals on the road. Despite a winless start to 2026, Espanyol are dominant at home, winning their last four head-to-heads at this stadium. They also exploit Alavés’ weakness on the wings through high crossing volume.
Read Rationale ▾
Both teams struggle with finishing chances, and Alavés rarely score away. A single goal from an Espanyol set-piece—where they are statistically strong—should be enough to settle this cagey encounter. This matches the pattern of low goal production from both sides in recent league matches.
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Espanyol vs Alaves Predictions and Best Bets
Espanyol vs Alavés — William Hill Market Snapshot
Informational snapshot of key markets with implied probabilities based on listed William Hill odds.
Espanyol carry strong favouritism as Alavés struggle significantly on the road with seven straight away defeats.
With Alavés averaging just 0.40 goals per away game, single-goal margins dominate the outlook.
- Home fortress pressure: Espanyol are unbeaten in their last 9 home matches against Alavés in all competitions, with four straight home wins in this matchup to underline the pattern.
- Away-day alarm bells: Alavés have suffered seven consecutive away defeats in La Liga, and they’ve scored 0.40 goals per away game in the league — a brutal combo for any road trip.
- Shot volume vs shot selection: Espanyol average 13.2 shots per game in La Liga, while Alavés put up 11.6 — but both sides carry a listed weakness in finishing scoring chances, so pressure may not equal goals.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
A comparison of shot frequency reveals which side maintains the most sustained offensive pressure.
Despite efficiency struggles, the hosts manufacture consistent opportunities through high shot volume.
The visitors generate fewer chances on average, reflecting their more defensive road setup.
Travel Efficiency: Alavés Road Stats
The statistics highlight a significant drop in productivity for the visitors when playing away from home.
Failing to average even half a goal per game on the road has contributed to a seven-match losing streak.
The current run of road results remains the primary obstacle for their survival grit.
Friday night at the RCDE Stadium brings a fixture with two very different tensions. Espanyol sit fifth on 34 points after 21 games, chasing a European finish — but the mood has turned edgy because they haven’t won in 2026. One point from four league matches does that to any dressing room.
Alavés arrive in 15th and only one point outside the relegation zone, and their away record is the red flag everyone can see: only four points from 10 away league games, plus a run of seven straight away defeats in La Liga.
Kick-off is 20:00, and it’s set up as a test of nerve: can Espanyol turn chances into goals again, or do Alavés make the match ugly and steal control of the rhythm?
Team News & Lineups
Injuries/absences
- Espanyol: Javi Puado Díaz (cruciate ligament tear, out until 01.09.2026)
- Alavés: No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Espanyol (possible):
Dmitrovic; El Hilali, Calero, Cabrera, Romero; Jofre, Gonzalez, Lozano, Terrats; Fernandez, Milla
Alavés (possible):
Sivera; Tenaglia, Protesoni, Pacheco, Otto; Guridi, Blanco, Ibanez, Alena; Boye, Martinez
What it means
- Espanyol losing Puado removes a forward option and nudges more responsibility onto Roberto Fernández and Pere Milla to provide the punch in the box.
- Alavés look set to go with a compact spine — but they’re very weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, which is flirting with danger against an Espanyol side that are very strong attacking set pieces.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (La Liga) | Espanyol | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Position / Points | 5th / 34 | 17th / 22 |
| Record | 10W-4D-7L | 6W-4D-11L |
| Goals scored | 25 | 18 |
| Shots per game | 13.2 | 11.6 |
| Possession | 41.8% | 49.5% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.0% | 80.9% |
| Yellow / Red cards | 49 / 2 | 55 / 2 |
This is the fun contradiction: Espanyol are higher, shoot more, and still don’t dominate the ball. Alavés keep more possession on average, pass it slightly cleaner, and yet sit in the scrap at the bottom. It points to two questions that decide the flow: can Alavés’ possession travel into real chances, and can Espanyol’s shot volume finally sharpen into goals?
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Espanyol: chances manufactured, finishing demanded
Espanyol are built to create. They’re very strong at creating scoring chances and very strong attacking set pieces, and they take a lot of shots. That’s the platform for a home performance that feels relentless even when it isn’t pretty.
But the sting in the tail is obvious: they’re weak at finishing scoring chances. That’s why this run has turned uncomfortable — shots without ruthlessness drain the crowd and invite the opponent to hang around. Expect Carlos Romero to be heavily involved from the left: he’s got 4 league goals and 2 assists, plus a standout 7.07 rating.
Up front, Pere Milla is the focal point for end product with 6 goals, while Roberto Fernández has 4 goals and 2 assists. If Espanyol turn the match into repeat deliveries and second balls, those two have to be the ones getting it in the net.
Alavés: right-side thrust, long shots, and contact football
Alavés lean into width, particularly attacking down the right, and they like to hit long shots. They’re also aggressive, and they’re strong at stealing the ball from the opposition — a classic recipe for disrupting a home side that’s feeling the weight of a winless spell.
Their threats are clear: Carlos Vicente leads the scoring with 5, while Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé both have 4. The worry is where those chances come from: Alavés are weak finishing scoring chances too, and they’re weak defending counter attacks while also being very weak defending against attacks down the wings — exactly the sort of vulnerability that can get exposed if Espanyol start switching play and piling runners into wide areas.
Where the mismatch lives
If Alavés give away cheap fouls near the box, Espanyol’s set-piece strength becomes a shortcut to momentum. If Espanyol leave space behind their pressure, Alavés’ wide play and long shots can turn one loose clearance into a moment.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and “cheap” fouls: Espanyol’s very strong attacking set pieces meets an Alavés side very weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas — a volatile collision.
- Wide corridors: Alavés are very weak defending attacks down the wings, and Espanyol attempt crosses often; that channel could be targeted again and again.
- First punch at 20:00: Espanyol’s average first goal time is listed at 51′, while Alavés show 40′ — if Alavés nick the opener, the stadium mood becomes part of the contest.
What could go wrong?
For Espanyol, it’s the same trap: plenty of chances, not enough finishing, then one long shot or set-piece swing flips the night. For Alavés, it’s self-sabotage — chasing, fouling in bad areas, and leaving the wings exposed can hand Espanyol the exact type of goal that snaps a winless run.
Best Bet for Espanyol vs Alavés
Can Espanyol End the 2026 Drought Against Travel-Sick Alavés?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| H2H | Espanyol: 4 straight home wins vs Alavés | Espanyol Win |
| Away Form | Alavés: 7 consecutive away league defeats | Home Win |
| Efficiency | Alavés: 0.40 goals per away game | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Discipline | Alavés: Weak avoiding fouls in danger zones | Espanyol to Score |
Espanyol to Win
Espanyol are currently enduring a winless start to 2026, yet they remain a potent force at the RCDE Stadium. Sitting fifth in the table with 34 points, they average a significant 13.2 shots per game. While finishing scoring chances is a listed weakness, the sheer volume of pressure they exert at home makes them inevitable favourites against a struggling opponent.
Alavés are in the midst of a catastrophic away run, having suffered seven consecutive away defeats in La Liga. Their output on the road is fundamentally broken, averaging just 0.40 goals per game. This lack of threat away from home means Espanyol can commit numbers forward without fearing a sustained counter-offensive from a side sitting just one point above the relegation zone.
Tactically, this match exposes Alavés’ biggest flaw: defending the wings. They are weak at stopping attacks down the flanks, which is exactly where Espanyol focus their delivery. Furthermore, Alavés are very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. For an Espanyol side that is very strong at attacking set pieces, these “cheap” fouls are essentially high-value scoring opportunities handed to them on a silver platter.
Historically, the RCDE Stadium has been a graveyard for Alavés. Espanyol are unbeaten in their last nine home matches against them, including four straight wins. Given that Alavés have only managed four points from ten away games all season, every metric points to the home side snapping their winless streak and solidifying their European chase.
What could go wrong?
Espanyol’s failure to convert shot volume into goals is their primary risk. If they mirror their recent winless form and waste early chances, it invites Alavés to sit deep and disrupt the rhythm. Alavés are strong at stealing the ball and lean into long shots, meaning a single moment of individual brilliance could steal a result if Espanyol fail to be clinical.
Correct Score Lean
Espanyol 1-0 Alavés
A narrow victory is the most probable outcome. Alavés’ statistical inability to score away from home (0.40 goals per game) strongly suggests an Espanyol clean sheet. However, with the hosts missing Javi Puado Díaz and showing recent struggles in finishing, a high-scoring blowout is unlikely. Espanyol’s set-piece dominance will likely provide the breakthrough, leading to a professional, low-scoring win that prioritises the three points over flair.
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