bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Elche’s home control blunt Villarreal’s central punch? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
▾
Villarreal sit fourth in the table and possess a significant 13-point lead over Elche. Despite a recent wobble, they have won 11 of their 16 matches and average nearly two goals per game. Their style is perfectly suited to this matchup; Elche prefer possession but struggle to stop chance creation, while Villarreal are elite on the counter-attack. With the visitors' ability to score multiple goals and Elche's weakness against skillful individuals, the higher-quality side is well-placed to secure three points and return to form.
▾
This scoreline aligns with both teams' scoring trends and defensive records. Villarreal score 1.94 goals per game on average and have already secured three 2-1 wins this season. Elche have seen both teams score in 59% of their fixtures and have been scoring regularly at home. Since Villarreal have conceded in four straight away matches but possess the clinical edge to outscore mid-table opposition, a narrow 2-1 victory for the visitors is the most logical statistical outcome for this clash.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Elche vs Villarreal Predictions and Best Bets
Elche vs Villarreal — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot showing pricing for key match outcomes at the Manuel Martínez Valero.
Villarreal travel as favorites despite recent form, while Elche’s strong home run is reflected in the competitive draw price.
A narrow away win is the leading outcome according to current pricing, with a high-scoring draw following closely.
Statistically both teams look likely to score, supported by a strong pricing trend toward “Yes” in the BTTS market.
- Elche’s possession game is backed up over 17 league matches: 58.2% possession with 86.9% pass success, alongside 23 goals, pointing to control with enough cutting edge to matter.
- Villarreal’s league output is built on volume and efficiency: 31 goals from 16 matches with 13.3 shots per game, suggesting they reach shooting positions often even with 44.9% possession.
- Elche’s home run is stubborn: unbeaten in their last 10 home matches in all competitions, and they’ve scored at least two goals in each of their last three home games.
Style Clash: Control vs Efficiency
Elche prioritize heavy ball retention, while Villarreal focus on shot volume and direct attacking through the spine.
A patient build-up style relying on short passes and technical control in the middle third.
Despite lower possession (44.9%), they generate higher shot volumes via fast counters and through balls.
Points Production: League Standings
A comparison of the total points accumulated across the current La Liga campaign.
Steady performers sitting ninth in the table following organized defensive displays.
High-flying campaign currently placing them fourth and only two points off third place.
Villarreal head back into La Liga action on Saturday evening with a clear aim: stop the wobble and get back to winning ways. Fourth in the table and only two points off Atlético Madrid in third, the Yellow Submarine arrive at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero with plenty still to chase.
Elche, though, are hardly playing the part of obliging hosts. Ninth with 22 points from 17 matches, they’ve quietly put together the kind of steady season that makes visiting sides work for every yard. The setting feels perfect for a proper La Liga problem: a high-placed team trying to reassert control, against a home side with enough organisation and confidence to ask awkward questions.
There’s also a stylistic clash baked in. Elche have been defined by possession football, short passes and a clear preference for attacking down the left. Villarreal, by contrast, are described as a side that like to attack through the middle, attempt through balls often, and take a lot of shots — with counter-attacks rated as a very strong suit. If that reads like a match of competing ideas, it’s because it is.
And when you add in two teams flagged as strong at defending set pieces, but weak in aerial duels, you can almost hear the coaches sighing already.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Elche’s possible XI points strongly towards a 3-5-2: Peña in goal; Donald, Affengruber and Bigas across the back; Neto and Núñez as wing-backs; Aguado and Febas with Valera in midfield; Rodríguez operating off Mir up front.
That shape fits neatly with what’s been said about Elche’s style: possession, short passes, and attacks leaning towards the left. With Valera listed in the side and also standing out as a top-rated performer, there’s a natural link between the midfield and that left-sided focus. Mir’s presence at the top of the pitch matters too — he’s their leading league scorer with six — because it gives Elche a clear reference point when they build into the final third.
There’s also a disciplinary note: A. Giner Pedrosa is listed as suspended. With no confirmed replacement mentioned, it’s simply a reminder that Elche’s options look altered at the back/left side in some way, even if the suggested XI already has a plan.
Villarreal’s possible line-up looks like a familiar 4-4-2: Luiz Junior; Navarro, Marin, Foyth, Cardona; Pepe, Comesana, Parejo, Moleiro; Mikautadze, Perez. It matches their formation summary, where 4-4-2 is the go-to system, and it fits their stated habits: central attacking, through balls, and plenty of shots.
The balance in that Villarreal XI is interesting. There’s a mix of midfield profiles in Comesaña and Parejo, with Moleiro listed wide but carrying the output of a main man, and two forwards who can share the running — Mikautadze alongside Pérez — rather than one player being asked to do all the heavy lifting.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Elche line up as suggested, their first job is to make Villarreal’s favourite routes feel crowded. A 3-5-2 can do that naturally: three centre-backs to deal with two strikers, and a midfield line that can squeeze the inside lanes where Villarreal are described as wanting to attack.
In possession, Elche’s approach suggests long spells of controlled circulation. The short-passing preference and high possession share over the season point towards patience rather than chaos — working the ball into midfield, nudging opponents sideways, then trying to tilt play towards the left where they like to build attacks. In that context, the wing-back on that side becomes a key outlet, with Valera able to connect the phases and Rodríguez and Mir providing targets for the final action.
Villarreal, though, sound like the kind of side who don’t mind waiting for you to get comfortable before turning the lights off. “Counter attacks” being rated very strong is a warning label: if Elche’s wing-backs push on and the midfield steps up to keep the ball, Villarreal will be hunting the moments when one pass goes astray, or one touch is half a second late. Their stated tendency to attempt through balls often also hints at what they’ll want in transition: quick, vertical, and straight through the middle rather than around the outside.
Out of possession, Villarreal’s 4-4-2 gives them a straightforward pressing map. Two forwards can screen or jump to Elche’s three centre-backs depending on the trigger, while the midfield four can narrow to protect the centre and tempt Elche into wider build-up. That’s where the duel becomes fascinating: Elche prefer to attack down the left, but Villarreal prefer to attack through the middle. One side wants to stretch you sideways, the other wants to cut you open through the spine.
The other subplot is risk management. Villarreal are tagged as weak at avoiding individual errors and weak at protecting the lead, while Elche are described as strong at protecting the lead and strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. That doesn’t guarantee a script, but it does suggest a match where concentration swings could matter: Elche happy to settle into structure once ahead, Villarreal needing clean decision-making when the game gets tight.
And then there are the set pieces. Both teams are described as strong at defending them — which sounds reassuring until you remember they’re also both flagged as weak in aerial duels. That combination can produce a strange kind of tension: well-drilled positioning, but with the ball in the air still feeling like an argument rather than a certainty.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table. Villarreal are fourth with 35 points from 16 matches, while Elche are ninth with 22 points from 17. That gap reflects a difference in output too: Villarreal have scored 31 league goals to Elche’s 23, and Villarreal have conceded 15 compared to Elche’s 20.
The styles show up clearly in the season-long team numbers. Elche’s league possession sits at 58.2% with an 86.9% pass success rate, which supports the idea of a side that want control through the ball — not just having it, but keeping it with precision. Villarreal’s league possession is much lower at 44.9%, yet their shot volume is higher: 13.3 shots per game compared to Elche’s 11.4. In plain terms, Elche look like they build longer and more often; Villarreal look like they get to the punch faster.
That shot profile matters because Villarreal’s strengths include creating scoring chances and finishing them, while Elche’s weaknesses include stopping opponents from creating chances and defending against skillful players. If Villarreal can turn those central attacks into frequent shooting situations, it forces Elche into repeated defensive decisions — the kind that can add up over 90 minutes.
Elche, however, aren’t short on threat themselves. Mir has six league goals, Rodríguez has three goals and four assists, and Valera has three goals and two assists. Those contributions fit a 3-5-2 that can share responsibility: one striker providing the finishing edge, another adding link and creation, and a midfielder bringing end product while supporting the left-sided tilt.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment could be the first sustained spell where Elche manage to pin Villarreal back on that left side. If Elche can keep the ball, move it quickly with short passes, and pull Villarreal’s midfield across, it tests the discipline of a 4-4-2 block. The danger for Villarreal is less about being outnumbered wide and more about what happens next: the pass inside, the slip into the channel, the decision a defender has to make when Rodríguez and Mir start occupying different spaces.
Another moment is the instant after Elche lose possession. Villarreal’s counter-attacking strength and preference for through balls suggests they’ll be waiting for exactly that. If Elche commit both wing-backs high, the space behind them becomes a tempting runway — and Villarreal’s central focus means they’ll try to break the game open quickly rather than restarting.
Set pieces feel like a third swing factor. Both sides are described as strong at defending them, which hints at good structure and organisation. But with aerial duels listed as a weakness for both, any delivery that drops into a messy zone could turn into a scramble, a second ball, and a shot rather than a clean header and a tidy clearance.
Finally, keep an eye on how Elche’s ball-winning trait shows up. They’re described as strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. If that translates into timely interceptions or well-timed tackles in midfield, it can blunt Villarreal’s preference for fast, central progression and force them into longer possessions they don’t always chase.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A match that looks like “control versus transition” on paper can flip if an early goal changes the incentives, or if individual errors — a stated weak point for Villarreal — distort the rhythm. Fine margins matter too: one well-executed through ball can undo an hour of tidy possession, while one loose touch can turn a promising break into a reset.
Best Bet for Elche vs Villarreal
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
Villarreal to Win
The tactical outlook for this clash suggests that Villarreal are well-positioned to exploit the structural tendencies of the home side. Elche have built their season on a foundation of possession-heavy football, averaging 58.2% of the ball with a high pass success rate of 86.9%. While this allows them to control the tempo, it often leaves them vulnerable to quick transitions. Villarreal are specifically noted for having counter-attacks as a very strong suit, and they frequently attempt through balls to slice through high defensive lines.
Despite a recent three-game losing streak, the visitors remain fourth in the table with 35 points, a full 13 points ahead of their ninth-placed opponents. Their offensive production has been significant, scoring 31 goals in 16 matches. In contrast, while Elche are organized, they possess a specific weakness in stopping opponents from creating chances and defending against skillful players—two areas where the visitors excel. With the visitors taking more shots per game (13.3) than the hosts (11.4) despite having far less of the ball, the efficiency of their central attacks is likely to be the deciding factor.
Furthermore, the individual quality in the visiting XI, featuring players like Ayoze Pérez and Nicolas Pépé, aligns with Elche’s struggle against high-level individual skill. Although Elche are formidable at home, the visitors have been prolific on the road this season, scoring two or more goals in 11 of their 16 league fixtures. The combination of Elche’s desire to push high with the ball and the visitors’ elite ability to strike on the break provides a clear logical path for an away victory as the higher-ranked side looks to stop their recent slide.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk lies in Villarreal’s own defensive fragility, specifically their tendency to commit individual errors and a noted weakness in protecting leads. Elche are strong at stealing the ball from the opposition and are entering this fixture with high confidence following a 4-0 victory over Rayo Vallecano. If the home side scores early, they are statistically strong at protecting a lead, which could force the visitors into a frustrating afternoon of sustained possession that doesn’t suit their counter-attacking strengths.
Correct Score Lean
1-2
Villarreal have already recorded three 2-1 victories this season, and the statistical profiles of both teams suggest this is a likely outcome. The visitors average 1.94 goals per game, while Elche find the net at a rate of 1.35. Given that 59% of Elche’s matches result in both teams scoring, a clean sheet for either side seems improbable. The visitors’ high shot volume and finishing ability should see them find the net twice, but their habit of conceding in four consecutive away games suggests the home side, led by Rafa Mir’s six goals, will get on the scoresheet.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
