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Can Alaves break their winless streak against a high-flying Villarreal side? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Villarreal arrive in superior form, winning four of their last six La Liga matches to sit fourth. Alaves are winless since January and face significant defensive absences. The visitors’ clinical transition game and attacking depth should exploit a stretched Alaves backline currently struggling with a lack of consistency.
Read Rationale ▾
Alaves have conceded in twelve straight matches but remain dangerous in aerial duels at home. Villarreal’s last three league games have exceeded 2.5 goals, suggesting a high-scoring trend. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Villarreal’s attacking superiority while acknowledging Alaves’ ability to find a goal via their strong set-piece threat.
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Alaves host Villarreal in a tense Friday night La Liga fixture with pressure on the hosts and top-four momentum driving the visitors.
Alaves vs Villarreal — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Villarreal’s top-four pace and superior 50-goal season total suggests they are significant favourites against a winless Alaves side.
Alaves’ twelve-game conceding streak paired with Villarreal’s high scoring average points towards a match with multiple openings.
While Alaves are strong in aerial duels, Villarreal’s clinical transition play makes a narrow away victory a likely outcome.
Alaves dominate in the air with 16.6 wins per match, presenting a specific threat against Villarreal’s lower 10.4 average.
Match Preview: Alaves vs Villarreal
Friday night at Estadio de Mendizorroza carries real bite. Alaves are down in 16th, only two points above the bottom three, and the mood has turned urgent after back-to-back defeats.
Villarreal arrive in a very different frame of mind. Marcelino’s side sit fourth, level on points with Atletico Madrid, and another win would keep the pressure high in the chase near the top.
There is also a bit of unfinished business in this fixture. Alaves won this meeting here 1-0 last season, but Villarreal hit back with a 3-1 win in January, so both sides step onto the pitch with a recent memory to lean on. With kick-off set for 20:00, the stage is there for a tense, sharp, high-stakes La Liga scrap.
Attacking Output: Season Goals Scored
Villarreal’s offensive efficiency has been a defining factor in their top-four challenge compared to Alaves’ struggles.
With 50 goals scored, the visitors possess one of the most potent attacks in La Liga this term.
The hosts have managed exactly half the goal output of their opponents across the same period.
Physical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Alaves rely heavily on their dominance in the air to control matches and create set-piece opportunities.
Toni Martinez leads this charge, making Alaves a significant threat from high balls and crosses.
This physical metric is one of the few areas where the visitors statistically trail the hosts.
- Home edge under pressure: Alaves have taken 19 points from 13 home league matches, which gives them a platform at Mendizorroza, but they also arrive without a league win since the end of January and with only two points from their last five.
- Villarreal bring goals and momentum: Villarreal have scored 50 goals in 27 league matches and won four of their last six in La Liga, underlining why they head into this fixture with top-four pace and real attacking weight.
- A game that should stay alive: Alaves have conceded in 12 straight league matches, while Villarreal’s last three La Liga games have all gone over 2.5 goals, which points towards a contest with openings at both ends.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Alaves Team News
- Facundo Garcés is suspended.
- Antonio Sivera is out with an unknown injury.
Villarreal Team News
- No absences are listed.
Managers
- Alaves: Quique Sánchez Flores
- Villarreal: Marcelino
Probable Alaves Lineup
Sivera; Tenaglia, Yusi, Parada, Otto; Perez, Guridi, Blanco, Suarez; Boye, Martinez
Probable Villarreal Lineup
Luiz Junior; Mourino, Veiga, Marin, S Cardona; Buchanan, Comesana, Gueye, Moleiro; Pepe, Mikautadze
Alaves look stretched at the back. Garcés is unavailable, and that matters for a side already struggling to keep games under control, especially when defending transitions and deliveries into dangerous areas.
Further forward, the burden falls on Lucas Boye and Toni Martinez. Boye leads Alaves in the league with 9 goals, while Martinez has 5 goals and offers a major aerial outlet with 4.7 aerials won per game.
Villarreal’s likely front unit looks far more fluid. Alberto Moleiro has 9 league goals, Georges Mikautadze has 8, and Nicolas Pepe brings 4 assists, which gives the visitors multiple routes into the box and plenty of movement between the lines.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Alaves | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 4th |
| Points | 27 | 54 |
| League goals scored | 25 | 50 |
| Shots per game | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| Possession | 50.0% | 43.0% |
| Pass success | 80.9% | 82.4% |
| Aerials won | 16.6 | 10.4 |
| Last 6 league results | 0 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats | 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Alaves have to make their right side count
Alaves like to attack down the right, and that could become their main route into the game. With Nahuel Tenaglia a regular presence and Antonio Blanco their top-rated league performer at 6.84, the hosts need clean progression and sharper final balls from that channel.
The problem is what happens after the first phase. Alaves are weak at finishing scoring chances, and that has dragged them into trouble. They have scored only 25 league goals in 27 matches, which is a thin return for a side fighting near the bottom.
That makes the role of Boye huge. He gives Alaves directness, ball-carrying threat and a genuine scoring punch. If Alaves are going to turn territory into something meaningful, he will almost certainly be at the centre of it.
Villarreal’s transitions look tailor-made for this fixture
This is where the match tilts. Villarreal are very strong on the counter attack, strong at finishing scoring chances, and strong at creating scoring chances. Alaves, meanwhile, are weak at defending counter attacks and weak at defending against attacks down the wings.
That is a dangerous mix for the hosts. Villarreal also attack down the right and attempt through balls often, while their style leans towards attacking through the middle as well. That gives them several ways to test Alaves. They can go direct into the front line, slide passes into runners, or break quickly once Alaves commit bodies forward.
The aerial duel offers Alaves a route back in
Alaves will not want this game played entirely at Villarreal’s speed. One clear route back is to make it scrappy, physical and uncomfortable. Alaves are strong in aerial duels, while Villarreal are weak there. That puts extra focus on Toni Martinez, whose 4.7 aerials won per game stand out, and on set-piece delivery into crowded areas.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first transition after an Alaves attack: If Villarreal break the first line quickly, Alaves could be exposed immediately.
- The Boye and Martinez partnership: Alaves need their front two to turn pressure into shots, fouls and second balls.
- Set pieces at both ends: Alaves are strong in the air, but they are also vulnerable when defending dead-ball situations.
- Moleiro between the lines: His 9 league goals and 4 assists mark him out as a major danger in tight spaces.
- Discipline: Alaves average 15.22 fouls per game, while Villarreal also show a physical edge. A stop-start match could shape the whole rhythm.
What could go wrong?
For Alaves, the danger is obvious. They push forward, leave gaps, and Villarreal run straight through them. That pattern has haunted them during this winless spell, and another open game could punish them again.
For Villarreal, there is one warning light. Their away form is less convincing, with only one win in their last six away matches across all competitions listed here, and they have not had things their own way in recent trips to this ground. If Alaves make this ugly, win first contacts and keep the crowd involved, the visitors could find themselves dragged into a far more awkward night than the table suggests.
Match Result Market
A 1X2 market allows for a bet on a Home Win, Draw, or Away Win. It covers the outcome after 90 minutes. Choosing Villarreal means the visitors must win for the selection to be successful.
Correct Score Market
This requires predicting the exact final scoreline. It offers higher potential returns due to its difficulty. Both teams must finish with the specified number of goals for the bet to land.
📊 Strategic Rationale: Villarreal to Win
Villarreal arrive at Mendizorroza as a side fully revitalised under Marcelino, boasting four wins from their last six league outings. Their clinical nature is evidenced by 50 goals scored this campaign, the highest volume among the two sides. They face an Alaves defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet in twelve consecutive matches and currently misses suspended defensive pillar Facundo Garcés.
- Villarreal have won 4 of their last 6 league games.
- Alaves have conceded in 12 straight La Liga fixtures.
- Alaves are winless since the end of January.
Risk Factor: Villarreal have only secured one win in their last six away matches across all competitions.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 16.6 duels per match. Martinez offers a major threat against a weaker Villarreal air defence.
Averaging only 10.4 aerial wins. Vulnerable to high crosses and long direct balls into the box.
⚔️ Correct Score Rationale: 2-1 Villarreal
While Villarreal possess the attacking weight to dominate, Alaves remain a physical threat at home. The hosts average 16.6 aerial wins per match, while the visitors are statistically weak in the air. This suggests Alaves can find a route to goal, likely via Toni Martinez or Lucas Boye. However, Villarreal’s ability to create and finish high-quality chances should see them edge a three-goal contest.
Risk Factor: Villarreal’s propensity for high-scoring games could see this stretch beyond a 2-1 result if Alaves’ discipline slips.
❓ Match Day Q&A
⊕What is a Match Result bet?
A Match Result bet is a wager on which team will win the game or if it will end in a draw. It is the most common form of football betting and only counts the result at the end of regulation time.
⊕Why is Villarreal predicted to win?
Villarreal are predicted to win because they are in fourth place and have won four of their last six matches. They face an Alaves side that is winless in five games and missing key defensive personnel.
⊕What does “Over 2.5 Goals” mean?
This means a bet that three or more goals will be scored in total by both teams combined. It is a popular market when two attacking sides or vulnerable defences meet.
⊕Can Alaves score in this match?
Alaves are strong in the air and face a Villarreal defence that is statistically weak in aerial duels. This physical advantage provides Alaves with a realistic chance of finding the net via set pieces.
⊕How does the Correct Score market work?
You must predict the exact final score, such as 2-1. If the game ends with any other scoreline, the bet is unsuccessful, which is why the odds are typically higher.
⊕Who are the key players for Alaves?
Lucas Boye and Toni Martinez are the main threats. Boye leads the team with nine goals, while Martinez dominates the air with nearly five aerial wins per match.
⊕What is Villarreal’s main tactical strength?
Villarreal are exceptional in transition and clinical at finishing scoring chances. They move the ball quickly through the middle and exploit gaps left by attacking opponents.
⊕What is the importance of team news here?
Alaves are missing Facundo Garcés through suspension, which weakens their already vulnerable defence. Villarreal have no reported absences, allowing them to field their strongest attacking unit.
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Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
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