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Can Alaves turn fresh momentum into a statement at Mendizorroza? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Alaves recently displayed their attacking nerve in a seven-goal thriller, while Osasuna possess Ante Budimir, a top-tier aerial threat. Both teams frequently use width and high crossing volumes, exploiting each other’s defensive vulnerabilities on the wings and from set pieces, making goals at both ends highly probable.
Read Rationale ▾
While Alaves have momentum, they haven’t beaten Osasuna in nearly a decade. Osasuna are tactically structured but often struggle to Ruthlessly finish chances. Given both sides’ similar aerial stats and shot frequencies, a competitive but deadlocked stalemate at Mendizorroza aligns with their historical and current league profiles.
Alaves host Osasuna in La Liga with momentum on the line after a wild 4-3 comeback win. Osasuna arrive chasing back-to-back league wins to keep their European hopes alive.
Alaves vs Osasuna — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Alaves’s fresh momentum and home advantage at Mendizorroza give them a slight edge in the win market despite historical struggles.
Both teams average roughly 16 aerials won per game, suggesting set-piece deliveries could play a major role in scoring.
The points gap between Osasuna and European targets suggests they will push for a winner, making 1-1 highly plausible.
Alaves concede chances from wide areas, matching Osasuna’s tactical strength in wing play and crossing frequency.
- Alaves’s comeback spark: Alaves were 3-0 down against Celta Vigo before roaring back to win 4-3, a result that underlined both their attacking nerve and the chaos that still follows them.
- Osasuna’s recent control: Osasuna have won two of their last six league games, but one of those was a 1-0 victory over Girona, and they sit 10th, only four points behind sixth-placed Celta Vigo.
- A fixture that has tilted away from Alaves: Alaves have not beaten Osasuna since November 2016, while Osasuna have won six of the last eight meetings, giving this game a clear edge of tension for the home side.
Offensive Volume: Shots per League Game
Both sides display nearly identical shooting frequencies, highlighting a likely balanced contest at Mendizorroza.
With forwards like Boye averaging 2.3 shots per game, the hosts maintain constant pressure on the opposition box.
Led by Budimir’s 14 goals, the visitors produce a similar shot volume with a cleaner focal point in the final third.
Physical Duels: Aerials Won per Game
The aerial battle will be crucial given both sides’ tactical reliance on wide play and crossing.
The presence of Martinez and Boye ensures Alaves can compete for high deliveries and set-piece scraps.
Budimir wins 3.6 aerial duels per game personally, acting as the primary target for Osasuna’s crossing strategy.
Match Preview
This one has edge, pressure and a real sense of opportunity. Alaves head into Sunday night’s 20:00 kickoff at Estadio de Mendizorroza with fresh life after that wild 4-3 comeback against Celta Vigo, a result that could shift the mood around a side sitting 16th, still only three points outside the relegation zone.
Osasuna arrive in a stronger league position, parked in 10th and still looking up rather than down. They are only four points behind sixth-placed Celta Vigo, so there is genuine incentive here. Add in Alaves’s long wait for a win in this fixture, and this starts to feel like a game full of unfinished business for the hosts.
Team News & Probable Lineups
No injuries or suspensions are confirmed here.
Both sides are expected to lean on settled shapes and familiar names.
Alaves come in after a huge emotional swing in their last outing, while Osasuna arrive chasing back-to-back league wins.
Probable Alaves Lineup
Sivera; Jonny, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Parada; Perez, Guridi, Blanco, Rebbach; Martinez, Boye
Probable Osasuna Lineup
Herrera; Rosier, Boyomo, Catena, Galan; Munoz, Moncayola; Ruben Garcia, Oroz, V Munoz; Budimir
The shape of those lineups tells its own story. Alaves look set to go with two forwards in Toni Martinez and Lucas Boye, which fits a side that plays with width, attacks down the right and looks to get crosses into the box.
Osasuna’s probable XI looks more layered between the lines. Aimar Oroz, Ruben Garcia and Victor Munoz behind Ante Budimir gives them a cleaner link from midfield into attack, and that could matter in a match where the first pass through pressure may decide the rhythm.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Alaves | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 10th |
| Points gap to major target | 3 points above relegation zone | 4 points behind 6th |
| La Liga games | 29 | 29 |
| Goals scored | 30 | 34 |
| Shots per game | 11.9 | 11.6 |
| Possession | 49.8% | 45.2% |
| Pass success | 80.8% | 80.1% |
| Aerials won | 16.1 | 16.0 |
| Team rating | 6.52 | 6.58 |
| Recent result | Beat Celta Vigo 4-3 | Beat Girona 1-0 |
Tactical Battle
Alaves will try to stretch it
Alaves play with width, attack down the right and attempt crosses often. That points straight towards a plan built around territory, deliveries into the area and physical pressure on the Osasuna back line. With Toni Martinez and Lucas Boye both carrying a real presence, Alaves have forwards who can fight for first contact and second balls.
The issue is that their game can become too loose. They are weak at finishing chances, weak at defending counter-attacks and weak at defending set pieces. That is a dangerous mix. It means Alaves can build momentum in one phase and then hand it straight back in the next.
Osasuna’s cleaner structure between the lines
Osasuna’s 4-2-3-1 shape gives them a natural platform in midfield. Munoz and Moncayola should help protect the centre, while Ruben Garcia, Oroz and Victor Munoz offer movement behind Budimir. That gives them multiple ways to progress the ball without forcing everything into one lane.
They also play with width and attempt crosses often, but there is a sharper focal point at the top end. Budimir has scored 14 league goals and wins 3.6 aerial duels per game, so Osasuna can go direct when needed and still look composed. If Alaves leave too much room around their full-backs, Osasuna have enough craft to attack those spaces and enough size to punish them when the ball goes into the box.
Key Zones
- The key mismatch could be in transition: This is where the fixture gets interesting. Alaves are strong at coming back from losing positions, but they are also vulnerable when matches break open. If they push wide and commit numbers forward, Osasuna have the shape to play through that first wave and release runners into the gaps.
- Alaves’s defensive gaps: They are weak at defending attacks down the wings and weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. Against a side strong at attacking set pieces and very strong from direct free kicks, those fouls could become a major problem.
- Where Alaves can hurt Osasuna: Osasuna are also weak at finishing chances, so if Alaves can stay compact after crosses break down, they can keep the visitors from turning pressure into a ruthless tally.
Key Moments to Watch
- Budimir in the box: With 14 league goals and major aerial strength, he is the clearest penalty-box threat on the pitch.
- Boye and Martinez as a pair: Alaves have two forwards capable of turning crosses and scraps into shots, and that can make them awkward to defend.
- Set pieces at both ends: Alaves are weak when defending set pieces, while Osasuna are strong attacking them and strong defending them.
- Wide areas: Alaves like to attack down the right, but they are also vulnerable against attacks down the wings, so both teams may find joy near the touchlines.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Alaves, the risk is obvious. Emotion from the Celta Vigo win can quickly turn into disorder if they chase the game too hard. Their weaknesses against counters, wing play and dangerous fouls can all be exposed in one bad spell.
For Osasuna, the danger is different. They do not hold much of the ball on average, and if they fail to turn good crossing situations into clean chances, Alaves can drag them into a scrap. This fixture has enough physicality, enough width and enough volatility to swing hard on one duel, one set piece or one defensive lapse.
Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
This market requires both the home and away sides to score at least one goal each during the 90 minutes. It does not matter who wins the match; as long as the scoreline is 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, etc., the bet is successful.
Pros: Keeps the bet alive regardless of the final result. Cons: A single clean sheet from either side ruins the pick.
Correct Score
This market asks you to predict the exact final score of the match at the end of regulation time. It is a higher-risk market because it requires absolute precision.
Pros: Offers significantly higher odds than result markets. Cons: Highly volatile; a late goal can instantly lose the bet.
Both Teams to Score Rationale 🎯
The tactical setup for this clash points directly towards offensive exchanges. Alaves demonstrated their scoring capability and lack of defensive order in their recent 4-3 victory over Celta Vigo. They play with significant width and focus on attacking down the right flank to deliver high crossing volumes. This direct pressure frequently leads to chances, particularly with physical forwards like Toni Martinez and Lucas Boye operating in the area.
Osasuna possess an even cleaner attacking structure through the lines. Ante Budimir is a standout threat, having scored 14 league goals this season and winning 3.6 aerial duels per match. Because Alaves are historically weak at defending attacks down the wings and vulnerable during set-piece situations, Osasuna’s crossing strategy is likely to yield results. Conversely, Osasuna have shown vulnerabilities that a revitalised Alaves attack can exploit, especially at Mendizorroza where the home crowd provides a significant surge in energy.
Tactical Indicators:
- Alaves scored 4 goals in their last outing, showing high attacking nerve.
- Budimir has 14 league goals and acts as a major aerial target for Osasuna.
- Both teams are noted for high crossing volumes and wide attacking play.
Risk Factor: Both sides have occasionally struggled with finishing efficiency earlier in the season.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Budimir wins 3.6 aerials/match. Osasuna are strong at attacking set plays and direct free kicks.
Ranked weak at defending set pieces and wing attacks. Vulnerable to high-quality crossing volume.
1-1 Draw Rationale ⚔️
Predicting a 1-1 draw stems from the statistical parity between these two sides. Both teams average nearly identical shot counts (11.9 for Alaves vs 11.6 for Osasuna) and aerial success rates. While Alaves have the momentum of a recent win, they carry the psychological weight of a decade-long winless streak against Osasuna, who have won six of the last eight meetings.
Osasuna are tactically structured but are also noted for being weak at finishing chances. This lack of ruthlessness often keeps opponents in the game. Alaves hold slightly more possession on average (49.8%) but aren’t dominant enough to shut Osasuna out. A scoreline where both teams find the net through their preferred wide play but ultimately cancel each other out in a physical midfield battle is the most plausible outcome given their current league standings and identical team ratings.
Risk Factor: Alaves matches have recently drifted into chaos, which could lead to a higher-scoring outcome.
Match Questions & Answers 📊
⊕ What is the BTTS market in this game?
The Both Teams to Score (BTTS) market requires both Alaves and Osasuna to score at least one goal each. This market is particularly relevant here because Alaves recently scored four goals while Osasuna boast a top scorer in Ante Budimir.
⊕ Why is a 1-1 draw predicted?
A 1-1 draw is predicted because both teams have very similar shooting and aerial statistics. While Alaves have home momentum, Osasuna’s disciplined structure and historical dominance in this fixture suggest they can secure a point.
⊕ Who is the biggest goal threat for Osasuna?
Ante Budimir is the primary threat for Osasuna, having scored 14 league goals this season. His aerial dominance makes him a major danger against an Alaves side that struggles with set-piece defending.
⊕ How do Alaves usually attack?
Alaves focus their attacks on wide areas, specifically down the right flank. They rely on high crossing volumes to find Toni Martinez and Lucas Boye in the box.
⊕ What are Alaves’s main defensive weaknesses?
Alaves are noted for being weak at defending counter-attacks, wing play, and set pieces. They also have a tendency to commit fouls in dangerous areas near their own box.
⊕ Does Osasuna have a good record against Alaves?
Yes, Osasuna have won six of the last eight meetings between the two sides. Alaves have not secured a victory in this fixture since November 2016.
⊕ What is at stake for Osasuna?
Osasuna are chasing European qualification; they currently sit in 10th place but are only four points away from the 6th position in the league table.
⊕ Are there any major injuries?
There are no confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team at the time of this preview. Both managers are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
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