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Can Den Bosch turn rust into magic and rattle PSV at De Vliert? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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PSV averages 3.0 goals per game but remains prone to individual errors. Den Bosch averages 2.5 goals in the cup, making a high-scoring PSV victory the most likely outcome.
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Reflects PSV's offensive dominance and Den Bosch's defensive vulnerabilities (1.87 goals conceded per game) while allowing for the hosts to find the net at home.
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Den Bosch vs PSV Eindhoven Predictions and Best Bets
Den Bosch vs PSV — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot featuring implied probabilities from listed odds for this KNVB Beker tie.
- PSV’s Goal Rush: PSV have scored 75 goals in their last 25 matches across all leagues tracked here — a 3.0-per-game clip that forces chaos early.
- Den Bosch’s Cup Punch: Den Bosch average 2.50 goals per KNVB Beker match, and their last two competitive games ended in wins over Katwijk and Vitesse.
- Possession Gap, Pressure Gap: PSV run at 59% possession with 87% pass accuracy, while Den Bosch sit at 49% possession and 79% pass accuracy — territory could tilt hard.
Attacking Firepower: Goals Per Match
A comparison of the scoring output between Den Bosch in the cup and PSV across their season.
Den Bosch have maintained a high scoring rate in this competition, averaging 2.5 goals across their cup outings.
PSV arrive with significant momentum, having netted 75 goals in their last 25 matches.
Technical Control: Possession & Passing
Performance metrics highlighting the technical gap between the Eredivisie leaders and their hosts.
PSV typically dictate the tempo with nearly 60% possession and high-precision distribution.
Den Bosch operate with lower ball retention, often focusing on more direct routes to goal.
Stadion de Vliert gets a heavyweight visitor and a genuine “why not us?” moment. Den Bosch haven’t kicked a competitive ball in 2026 yet — their trip to De Graafschap was postponed — but they did warm up with a 4-1 friendly win over Kozakken Boys. Now comes the real test: PSV Eindhoven in the KNVB Beker last 16, kick-off 17:45, and a chance to shock the country.
Ulrich Landvreugd’s side want a third straight competitive win after beating Katwijk in the cup and Vitesse in the league to close 2025. The problem is the scale of it: Den Bosch haven’t beaten PSV in 90 minutes since August 1985, and they’re winless in the 18 fixtures since that last regulation-time success.
Team News & Lineups
Den Bosch manager: Ulrich Landvreugd
PSV manager: Peter Bosz
Injuries / absences
- None listed for either side.
Probable Den Bosch XI
Van Merbel; Fortes, Maas, Akmum, De Groot; Van Leeuwen, Felida, Laros; Semedo, Monzialo, Boumassaoudi
Probable PSV XI
Kovar; Sildillia, Flamingo, Obispo, Dest; Fernandez, Schouten, Wanner; Bajraktarevic, Til, Driouech
What it means on the pitch
Den Bosch look set to hang their threat on Kevin Monzialo (13 goals) and Ilias Boumassaoudi (7 goals) — quick routes to goal are essential if PSV dominate the ball. PSV’s XI screams control and thrust: Guus Til (11 league goals) arrives late, while Sergiño Dest (4 assists) can stretch the pitch and pile pressure onto the full-back zones.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Den Bosch | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Competition | Eerste Divisie | Eredivisie |
| Goals (league) | 40 in 21 | 57 in 18 |
| Shots per game | 13.52 | 15.96 |
| Possession | 49% | 59% |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 87% |
| Goals scored (all matches set) | 45 in 23 (1.96/game) | 75 in 25 (3.00/game) |
| Goals conceded (all matches set) | 43 in 23 (1.87/game) | 33 in 25 (1.32/game) |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 6 |
This matchup looks like PSV pushing the pace and Den Bosch trying to land something sharp in the gaps. PSV shoot more, keep more of the ball, and pass cleaner — but Den Bosch concede plenty and score plenty, which keeps this from turning into a sterile siege. The big question: can Den Bosch survive the first wave and still have legs to bite back?
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
PSV’s plan: box pressure, wing thrust, and finishing power
PSV arrive with a style that’s built to overwhelm. They play short passes, try through balls, and spend long stretches in the opposition half. It’s not just possession for possession’s sake — they’re very strong at finishing chances, counter-attacking, and attacking down the wings.
Even with control, PSV can snap into transition fast. If Den Bosch commit bodies forward and lose it, PSV’s “turn and go” moments can be savage — especially with runners arriving into the box for second-phase chances. Til is the headline: 11 league goals and a knack for popping up where marking breaks down.
But there’s a crack in the shine. PSV are very weak at protecting a lead and stopping opponents creating chances, and they’re very weak for individual errors. That’s the opening Den Bosch have to aim for: make it scruffy, force decisions, turn one mistake into a moment.
Den Bosch’s route: direct threat, home energy, and fast finishes
Den Bosch don’t need long spells — they need decisive ones. Their totals tell you what sort of game they can produce: 45 scored, 43 conceded across the matches tracked here. Chaos isn’t a risk for them, it’s oxygen.
The front three has the goal weight. Monzialo (13) gives them a proper finisher. Boumassaoudi (7) adds a second punch. If Den Bosch can win second balls through Felida (3 goals) and get early deliveries into the danger area, they can turn PSV’s defensive weaknesses into a live issue.
Where it could swing: tempo and match sharpness
Den Bosch haven’t played competitively since December 12. If the intensity hits them early, PSV could pin them in and keep them there. If Den Bosch ride that spell, the crowd and the momentum shift — and PSV’s tendency for messy moments starts to matter.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first 15 minutes: Den Bosch’s long layoff vs PSV’s rhythm — if PSV start fast, it can feel like waves hitting a wall.
- Transitions after Den Bosch corners: PSV are very strong on the counter; one loose delivery and it’s suddenly a footrace the other way.
- Decision-making at the back: PSV’s very weak rating for individual errors gives Den Bosch a clear target: press triggers, second balls, pounce.
What could go wrong?
For Den Bosch, it’s the simplest danger: PSV’s volume and finishing turns pressure into goals before the hosts can settle. For PSV, it’s the ugly cup script — dominate possession, miss one key moment, then gift a chance through an error or a sloppy spell while trying to manage the game.
Best Bet for Den Bosch vs PSV Eindhoven
Can Den Bosch cause a historic cup upset against the Eredivisie leaders?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | PSV 3.00/gm; Bosch 1.96/gm | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defense | PSV 1.32/gm; Bosch 1.87/gm | Both Teams to Score |
| History | PSV 8 straight wins vs Bosch | PSV -1.5 Handicap |
| Efficiency | PSV 87% pass; Bosch 79% pass | PSV Win & BTTS |
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PSV Eindhoven to Win & Both Teams to Score
This match presents a classic cup dynamic where the immense firepower of the Eredivisie leaders meets a home side that thrives on chaos. PSV Eindhoven enters the match as heavy favorites, having scored 75 goals in their last 25 matches across all competitions. Their 3.0-per-game scoring average is a relentless pace that few teams in the country can live with, especially a side from the second tier.
While PSV dominates the ball with 59% possession and elite 87% passing accuracy, they are not impenetrable. The visitors are vulnerable to individual errors and have shown a weakness in protecting leads. This creates a clear avenue for Den Bosch to find the net. The hosts average 2.5 goals per match in the KNVB Beker and possess a genuine goal threat in Kevin Monzialo, who has 13 goals this season.
Den Bosch’s tactical approach relies on direct threat and fast finishes. They have scored 45 goals this season but conceded 43, proving they are comfortable in high-scoring, back-and-forth games. Even if PSV rotates their squad, the depth of talent available to Peter Bosz remains significantly higher than the Eerste Divisie level. However, Den Bosch’s ability to pounce on second balls and capitalize on PSV’s defensive lapses makes a home goal highly probable.
Ultimately, the gap in quality and match sharpness is the deciding factor. Den Bosch has not played a competitive fixture since mid-December, while PSV is in full rhythm. Expect the visitors to control the territory and volume of chances, but the hosts’ “nothing to lose” attitude at Stadion de Vliert should ensure they contribute to a high-scoring scoreline.
What could go wrong? The primary risk is Den Bosch’s lack of match sharpness due to their month-long competitive layoff. If they struggle to match PSV’s early tempo, the game could become a “sterile siege” where PSV wins comfortably without conceding. Additionally, if PSV fields a heavily rotated side that prioritizes defensive structure over their usual expansive play, the total goal count could drop.
Correct Score Lean
Den Bosch 1-3 PSV Eindhoven
This scoreline aligns with the statistical reality of both sides. PSV’s average of 3.0 goals per game suggests they will breach the Den Bosch defense multiple times, especially given the hosts concede nearly two goals per match on average. However, Den Bosch’s strong scoring record at home and PSV’s tendency for individual defensive errors point toward the hosts grabbing a consolation goal.
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