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At AFAS Stadion, can AZ keep Ajax in their pocket again and stretch the unbeaten run to ten? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Celta are in peak form with two straight wins to start the year. Rayo have a catastrophic away record, failing to score in four straight road trips.
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Rayo's lack of goals away from home combined with Celta's solid defensive record makes a home win to nil the most likely narrative.
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AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Predictions and Best Bets
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
AZ’s historic nine-game unbeaten run against Ajax and strong home form makes them the statistical frontrunners for this cup tie.
Based on AZ’s scoring volume and Ajax’s low clean sheet rate, the following scorelines represent the most balanced pricing outcomes.
Both teams average high shot counts (16.9 vs 14.9), ensuring a high-event game where both nets are likely to ripple.
- AZ Have Owned This Match-Up: AZ are unbeaten in nine straight games against Ajax, including two clean-sheet 2-0 wins in 2025 alone.
- Shot Storm Incoming: AZ average 16.9 shots per league game, while Ajax sit at 14.9 — expect long spells of pressure and quick-fire attacks.
- Creative Firestarters: AZ’s Sven Mijnans has 5 goals and 5 assists, while Ajax’s Mika Godts has 8 goals and 6 assists — both can swing a cup tie with one action.
Offensive Tempo: Average Shots per Match
Both teams demonstrate an aggressive attacking philosophy, resulting in high shot frequencies that put constant stress on the opposing backline.
AZ’s approach is built on volume, consistently testing the goalkeeper from all areas of the final third.
Ajax maintain a strong creative threat, averaging nearly 15 attempts as they look to break defensive blocks.
Defensive Stability: Season Clean Sheets
The ability to shut out opponents provides a significant platform, contrasting AZ’s robust structure against Ajax’s high-event style.
AZ have established a defensively disciplined floor, recording double-digit shutouts across their broader run.
Ajax have struggled to maintain a clean scoreboard, with shutouts being relatively rare in their recent fixtures.
This is the KNVB Beker round-of-16 tie everyone circles first. AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax at AFAS Stadion, with unfinished business baked into the storylines. It’s a rematch of last season’s last-16 meeting — a 2-0 AZ win — and the home side arrive believing they’ve cracked the code in this derby. They haven’t lost to Ajax in nine matches, and they’re aiming to make it ten.
Both sides returned from the winter break with one-goal wins. AZ beat FC Volendam to finally get a league win after six attempts, while Ajax edged Telstar to stretch an unbeaten run in all competitions to seven. Kick-off is 20:00, and it has the feel of a cup night where the first swing could set the tone for everything.
Team News & Lineups
AZ manager: Maarten Martens
Ajax manager: Fred Grim
Injuries / absences
- AZ Alkmaar:
- Mexx Meerdink (groin injury)
- A. Natali (called up to national team)
- Jordy Clasie (knee problems)
- Seiya Maikuma (knee injury)
- Ajax: No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable AZ XI
Owusu-Oduro; De Wit, Goes, Penetra, Chavez; Mijnans, Smit, Koopmeiners; Patati, Hornkamp, Jensen.
Probable Ajax XI
Pasveer; Rosa, Itakura, Baas, Wijndal; Klaassen, Van den Boomen, Steur; Gloukh, Godts; Dolberg.
What it means on the pitch
AZ losing Clasie strips experience from midfield, and the absence of Meerdink removes a forward option that wins duels (2.1 aerials won) and carries goal threat (3 league goals). Ajax arrive with a settled spine on paper — and with Godts and Gloukh behind Dolberg, they’ve got the kind of movement that can turn a tight cup tie into chaos.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 3rd |
| League games | 17 | 18 |
| League goals scored | 32 | 35 |
| Shots per game (league) | 16.9 | 14.9 |
| Possession (league) | 53.8% | 57.5% |
| Pass accuracy (league) | 83.3% | 86.4% |
| Clean sheets (all leagues set) | 12 (in 30) | 4 (in 25) |
AZ take a lot of shots and push the game into the opponent’s half, but Ajax are the more possession-heavy side with cleaner passing. The big contrast is at the back: AZ have racked up 12 clean sheets across their broader run, while Ajax sit on 4 — and in a knockout game, that defensive edge can decide who panics first.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
AZ’s plan: shoot early, punch through the middle
AZ don’t need permission to pull the trigger. Their style is built around taking a lot of shots, controlling territory, and breaking lines with through balls. That matches the profile of Troy Parrott — 9 league goals and 4 shots per game — a striker who turns repeated pressure into constant danger.
The engine room is Mijnans and Kees Smit. Mijnans brings the final ball (5 assists) and serious shot volume (3.3 shots per game), while Smit’s calm passing (89% completion) helps AZ recycle attacks and go again. If AZ dominate the ball in Ajax’s half, the noise will rise and the cup tie turns into a test of Ajax’s defensive concentration.
There is a sting in AZ’s tail, too: they’re weak at avoiding individual errors and weak at protecting the lead. That’s a warning for any side trying to nurse a narrow advantage.
Ajax’s plan: possession, rotations, and clever runners
Ajax want to play their football: short passes, possession, and that trademark central build-up. They’re very strong at creating chances using through balls, and they’ve got two high-end creators to do it. Mika Godts is the headline — 8 goals and 6 assists with a 7.54 rating — while Oscar Gloukh adds 5 goals and 5 assists from attacking midfield.
The other angle is the box threat. Wout Weghorst (6 goals) dominates aerially (3.6 aerials won), but the probable XI points to Kasper Dolberg leading the line. Either way, Ajax will look to turn patient spells into sharp moments inside the box, where AZ’s defensive weaknesses against through balls and skilful players can get exposed.
Where the game gets messy: chance creation at both ends
This matchup is built for chances because both teams share the same flaw: stopping opponents from creating chances is a weakness on both sides. That means neither back line gets a quiet night. If the midfield screen loses duels, the match opens up fast — and in a derby, that’s usually when the tie flips.
Key Moments to Watch
- First goal pressure: AZ’s average first goal time is 36′, Ajax’s is 39′ — the early phases could be a cagey probe before the first real punch lands.
- Wide deliveries vs weak aerials: AZ are very weak in aerial duels, so Ajax deliveries and set pieces can become a constant stress test.
- Discipline and flashpoints: AZ have 69 yellows and 3 reds across the wider set; Ajax sit on 48 yellows and 2 reds. One rash moment changes everything.
What could go wrong?
For AZ, it’s the classic cup-trap: dominate, miss chances, then concede from a through ball or a wide delivery — and suddenly that weakness at protecting a lead becomes a real problem. For Ajax, it’s defending under pressure for long spells; if AZ keep landing shots and second balls, Ajax can get pinned and forced into emergency defending.
Best Bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax
Can AZ Extend the Streak to Ten?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| H2H Dominance | AZ unbeaten in 9 vs Ajax; two 2-0 wins in 2025 | Back AZ Alkmaar |
| Attack Power | AZ 16.9 shots/gm; Ajax 14.9 shots/gm | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defense | AZ 12 clean sheets; Ajax only 4 | AZ Win to Nil |
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AZ Alkmaar to Win
AZ Alkmaar enters this KNVB Beker tie with a psychological and statistical stranglehold over the visitors. They are currently on a nine-game unbeaten run against Ajax, a streak that includes two dominant 2-0 victories already in the year 2025. This history of success means AZ has the blueprint to dismantle the Ajax system, particularly at the AFAS Stadion where they are comfortable dictating the tempo.
The shot data highlights a significant offensive advantage for the home side. AZ averages 16.9 shots per game compared to Ajax’s 14.9. This high volume of attempts creates relentless pressure that eventually breaks teams down. With creative forces like Sven Mijnans, who has recorded five goals and five assists, AZ has the clinical edge required to convert this pressure into goals.
Defensively, the gap between these two sides is even wider. AZ has secured 12 clean sheets across their broader season, demonstrating a robust structure that is difficult to penetrate. In contrast, Ajax has managed only four clean sheets in 25 games. This defensive fragility makes Ajax vulnerable, especially against an AZ side that excels at taking early shots and punching through the middle.
While Ajax enjoys possession, AZ is more efficient with their opportunities. The absence of Jordy Clasie is a loss in midfield, but the collective defensive record of AZ suggests they can absorb Ajax’s rotations. Given the visitors’ inability to keep the ball out of their net and AZ’s historical dominance, the home win is the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong?
AZ has shown a specific weakness in protecting leads and is prone to individual defensive errors. If they fail to convert their high shot volume early on, they could be punished by Ajax’s technical creators like Mika Godts or Oscar Gloukh, who specialize in through balls that exploit AZ’s lack of aerial dominance.
Correct Score Lean
AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Ajax
This scoreline reflects the high offensive output of both teams while acknowledging AZ’s superior match-winning knack in this fixture. Both sides average over 14 shots per game and struggle to prevent opponents from creating chances. Ajax possesses high-end individual quality in Mika Godts (8 goals) and Kasper Dolberg, making it likely they find the net. However, AZ’s historical nine-game unbeaten run against Ajax and their higher shot frequency suggest they will outlast the visitors in a high-intensity cup environment.
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