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Can Liverpool turn Anfield’s cup night into a wave, or will Brighton’s passing game steal the tempo and the tie? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Liverpool dominate shot volume at Anfield (16.38 per game) and Brighton have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. However, Liverpool’s weakness in stopping chances and defending set pieces suggests a Brighton side strong in dead-ball situations can find the net during an open Anfield cup tie.
Read Rationale ▾
Five of the last six meetings produced 3+ goals. Liverpool’s high shot volume combined with Brighton’s passing rhythm often leads to close contests. Given Liverpool’s edge in dangerous attacks but vulnerability to set pieces, a narrow 2-1 victory reflects the tactical pattern and recent scoring trends in this fixture.
[bt4y_readers_tip]
FA Cup nights at Anfield always carry a pulse, and this one comes with edge. Liverpool want to turn a midweek Premier League win into another statement in a competition where they’ve already hit four.
Liverpool vs Brighton — BetMGM Snapshot
FA Cup 4th Round Analysis: Market pricing and implied probabilities based on match data.
Liverpool’s high shot volume and home advantage make them strong favourites despite recent set-piece defensive vulnerabilities.
Five of the last six meetings between these sides have produced 3 or more goals at Anfield.
Liverpool’s attacking depth vs Brighton’s passing rhythm suggests a competitive result is statistically probable tonight.
Liverpool average 60% possession, while Brighton’s passing structure maintains a solid 53% average across competitions.
Match Preview
FA Cup nights at Anfield always carry a pulse, and this one comes with edge. Liverpool, under Arne Slot, want to turn a midweek Premier League win at Sunderland into another statement in a competition where they’ve already hit four in their only tie so far.
Brighton arrive with a bruised mood. Fabian Hurzeler’s side have slipped in the league recently — three defeats in their last six — but they’ve already shown their cup teeth by beating Manchester United 2-1 in the third round.
Kick-off is 20:00, the temperature is set at 5°, and the big question is simple: can Liverpool crank the speed high enough to break Brighton’s structure before the Seagulls find their rhythm on the ball?
Anfield Pressure: Dangerous Attacks per Match
Liverpool’s dominance is defined by sustained pressure in the final third rather than just controlled possession.
Slot’s side maintains a constant presence in the opposition box, averaging over 16 shots per tie.
The Seagulls rely on individual skill wide and central passing combinations to find their openings.
Technical Control: Pass Accuracy
Both sides prioritise technical proficiency, ensuring a match defined by high-tempo ball circulation.
Liverpool’s short passing game allows them to pin opponents deep while awaiting wide duels.
Brighton want possession and central combinations to break through high defensive lines.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Liverpool — Arne Slot
Injuries/absences:
- Dominik Szoboszlai (ankle) — out
- Alexander Isak (broken fibula) — out until 01/04/2026
- Jeremie Frimpong (thigh) — out until 20/02/2026
- S. Bajcetic Maquieira (surgery) — out until 01/04/2026
Probable XI: Alisson Becker; Conor Bradley, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez; Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch; Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo; Hugo Ekitiké
Brighton & Hove Albion — Fabian Hurzeler
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Likely XI (based on regular 4-2-3-1 usage): Bart Verbruggen; Ferdi Kadioglu, Jan Paul van Hecke, Lewis Dunk, Maxim De Cuyper; Carlos Baleba, Mats Wieffer; Yankuba Minteh, Yasin Ayari, Kaoru Mitoma; Danny Welbeck
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Liverpool | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 37 | 30 |
| Goals scored | 67 | 48 |
| Goals per game | 1.81 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded | 48 | 37 |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.23 |
| Shots per game | 16.38 | 13.33 |
| Possession | 60% | 53% |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 85% |
| Clean sheets | 12 | 7 |
| Corners per game | 6.16 | 4.73 |
Tactical Battle
Liverpool’s plan: pin, press, then punch
Liverpool control matches in the opposition half and play possession football with short passes. That’s the platform. The threat comes in the variety: they’re very strong at direct free kicks, strong on the break, and dangerous when they attack down the wings.
Look for Salah and Gakpo to drag Brighton’s full-backs into uncomfortable decisions. Step out and you leave space. Sit off and you invite service into Ekitiké, who leads Liverpool’s league scoring chart with 10.
But there’s a sting in Liverpool’s profile: they are very weak at stopping opponents creating chances and weak at defending set pieces. That’s not a small flaw against a side that can create long-shot openings and punish second balls.
Brighton’s plan: play through it, not around it
Brighton want possession, short passes, and central combinations. They’re very strong at creating long-shot opportunities and strong through individual skill — exactly the kind of pattern that can punish a team that allows chances.
The warning light for Hurzeler is aerial duels. Brighton are weak there. Liverpool aren’t. If Brighton get forced into long clearances, Liverpool’s centre-backs can turn those into instant recycled attacks.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece swings: Liverpool are weak defending set pieces; Brighton are strong defending them. Dead balls could decide the emotional temperature of the tie.
- Offside chaos: Both teams have issues avoiding offside — Liverpool are very weak here, Brighton are weak too. Attacks could keep getting chopped up at the decisive moment.
- Discipline and stoppages: Brighton average 2.3 yellow cards per game to Liverpool’s 1.46, and they also make more tackles (18.03 per game to 12.95). That can disrupt Liverpool’s flow — or invite pressure if it becomes a free-kick-heavy night.
- The wide duel: Liverpool are strong attacking down the wings; Brighton can hurt teams with individual skill wide. Whoever wins those one-v-ones changes everything.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Liverpool, it’s the soft underbelly: allow Brighton to settle, concede set-piece danger, then suddenly you’re in a game where control doesn’t equal comfort.
For Brighton, it’s getting pinned too deep. If they lose aerial battles and can’t play out cleanly, Liverpool’s shot volume turns into a siege — and once Anfield feels the momentum, it can come in relentless bursts.
Quick Hits
- Anfield Shot Pressure: Liverpool average 16.38 shots per game across 37 matches, with 63.51 dangerous attacks per game — that’s constant box pressure, not sterile possession.
- Brighton’s Recent Rut: Brighton have won 1 of their last 6 matches in all competitions (3 losses, 2 draws), scoring 5 and conceding 7 in that run.
- Goals in This Fixture: Five of the last six meetings have produced 3+ goals, and Liverpool’s most recent Anfield meeting ended 2-0 in December 2025.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires you to pick the winner and whether both teams score. It works well for fixtures involving high-volume attacking sides with defensive lapses. Pros: Higher odds than simple win bets. Cons: A clean sheet from either side ruins the bet.
Correct Score
Predicting the exact final scoreline. This is a high-reward market that suits matches with clear scoring patterns. Pros: Significant returns. Cons: Extreme volatility; a single late goal or penalty can settle the outcome differently.
🎯 Pick 1: Liverpool to Win & BTTS Rationale
Tactical Indicators:
- Liverpool average 16.38 shots and 63.51 dangerous attacks per Anfield tie.
- Liverpool are weak defending set pieces; Brighton are strong in dead-ball phases.
- Brighton hit Manchester United for two goals in the previous round.
Liverpool enter this cup tie as strong home favourites, driven by an attacking volume that Brighton’s recently porous defence—conceding seven goals in their last six outings—will struggle to contain. Arne Slot’s side lives in the opposition half, maintaining 60% possession and generating relentless waves of pressure through Salah and Gakpo wide. However, Liverpool’s “soft underbelly” is a statistical reality: they are very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and particularly vulnerable at set pieces. Brighton possess the technical skill and dead-ball proficiency to exploit this, led by the delivery of specialists like Mitoma and the physical presence of Welbeck. While Anfield momentum usually carries Liverpool to victory, Brighton’s habit of scoring in high-profile ties (including their third-round win) makes a home win without a clean sheet the most plausible outcome. Liverpool’s inability to protect leads comfortably invites a game-state where both sides contribute to the scoreboard.
Risk Factor: Liverpool could dominate territory so effectively that Brighton struggle to find any sustained rhythm or set-piece opportunities.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Liverpool are strong in the air, while Brighton are weak. Konaté and Van Dijk can recycle cleared balls into instant second-wave attacks.
Despite strong attacking set-pieces, Brighton struggle defensively when forced into deep clearances against physically superior teams like Liverpool.
⚔️ Pick 2: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton Rationale
The statistical blueprint of this fixture points toward a competitive, goal-heavy outcome where Liverpool’s superior attack eventually breaks through. Five of the last six meetings between these sides have produced over 2.5 goals, underlining the open tactical nature of their clashes. Liverpool score at a rate of 1.81 goals per match and average over 16 shots, indicating two goals is a baseline expectation at Anfield. Brighton’s passing rhythm and central combinations usually guarantee at least one clear opening against a Liverpool defence that conceded 48 times in 37 games. Brighton’s strong set-piece execution provides a direct route to a consolation goal, but their rut—one win in six—suggests they lack the defensive endurance to hold out for a draw. A 2-1 scoreline respects Liverpool’s dangerous attacking bursts wide while acknowledging their persistent struggle to maintain 90-minute defensive concentration against technically gifted opponents like Mitoma and Ayari.
Risk Factor: A clinical performance from Salah could easily push this scoreline into 3-1 or 4-1 territory if Brighton’s high defensive line is exposed early.
❓ FA Cup Q&A
⊕ What is the Match Result & BTTS market?
The Match Result & Both Teams to Score (BTTS) market involves picking a winner and predicting that both sides will score. It is a popular way to increase the odds on a strong favourite when you expect a high-scoring game.
⊕ Why is Liverpool 2-1 a common prediction for this tie?
Statistical trends show 3+ goals in five of the last six meetings. Liverpool’s high attacking volume combined with their defensive set-piece weakness makes a narrow scoreline with goals for both sides very probable.
⊕ Does extra time count for Correct Score bets?
No, almost all football betting markets, including Correct Score and Match Result, apply to the 90 minutes of regular time plus injury time only. Extra time and penalties are settled in separate “To Qualify” markets.
⊕ How does offside affect the betting flow?
Both Liverpool and Brighton are statistically weak at avoiding offside. This can frustrate attacking-player bets (like Anytime Goalscorer) as promising phases are frequently cut short by the linesman’s flag.
⊕ What is the To Qualify market?
The To Qualify market allows you to back a team to progress to the next round by any means necessary, including extra time or penalties. It is a safer alternative to the 90-minute Match Result market.
⊕ Why are set pieces so important in this match?
Liverpool are weak at defending set pieces, while Brighton are strong at executing them. In a tight cup tie, a single dead-ball delivery can be the decisive factor that settles the tie.
⊕ Can Hugo Ekitiké influence the scoreboard?
Yes, Hugo Ekitiké leads Liverpool’s scoring chart with 10 goals. Given Liverpool average over 16 shots per game at home, he is the primary candidate to capitalise on Brighton’s aerial weaknesses.
⊕ What is the Double Chance market?
Double Chance allows you to cover two outcomes in one bet (e.g., Home Win or Draw). It offers a lower price but significantly higher security for cautious bettors.
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply. Remember to set a budget, use deposit limits, and stop when the fun stops. For more information, visit our Editorial Policy. Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT.
