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Can Arsenal’s set-piece dominance overwhelm Wigan’s defensive resolve at the Emirates? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Arsenal have shown devastating cup form, recently hitting four goals from set-pieces alone. Wigan travel south on a dismal run of five losses in six games, including a 6-1 thrashing. Given the disparity in possession and shot volume, Arsenal should cover a two-goal deficit comfortably at home.
Read Rationale ▾
Wigan struggle to finish chances and defend wide attacks, which Arsenal exploit through high crossing volume. Arsenal boast 21 clean sheets and a 0.65 goals-conceded average. A controlled 3-0 victory reflects Arsenal’s set-piece threat and Wigan’s vulnerability, having recently conceded six in a single league match.
[bt4y_readers_tip]
Arsenal welcome Wigan to the Emirates in the FA Cup fourth round, looking to build on their set-piece firepower against a side struggling for form in League One.
Arsenal vs Wigan Athletic — bet365 Snapshot
Key market probabilities and illustrative bet365 pricing.
Arsenal’s home advantage and superior league standing result in a massive probability edge over the struggling League One visitors.
With Arsenal averaging 2.15 goals per game, the market strongly implies a high-scoring encounter at the Emirates Stadium tonight.
A comfortable 3-0 Arsenal win aligns with their defensive record of 21 clean sheets and Wigan’s recent heavy defensive struggles.
Wigan’s tally of seven red cards this season suggests high volatility in card markets when facing relentless Premier League pressure.
Key Stats and Game-State Indicators
- Set-piece Surge: Arsenal hit Portsmouth for four set-play goals in a 4-1 win, with Gabriel Martinelli netting a hat-trick as dead-balls set the tone.
- Two Teams, Two Tempos: Arsenal average 15.08 shots per game and 57% possession, while Wigan sit at 10.13 shots and 45% possession — a clash of control versus containment.
- Form Whiplash: Arsenal are W4 D1 L1 in their last six, while Wigan are L5 D1 in theirs — including a heavy 6-1 defeat at Peterborough.
Defensive Reliability: Clean Sheets
A comparison of defensive stability across all competitions for both clubs this season.
With 21 shutouts and only 0.65 goals conceded per game, Arsenal possess one of the most stable backlines in the competition.
Wigan have conceded 52 goals this season, highlighting a significant defensive gap compared to their hosts.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Game
Snapshot of offensive pressure based on the average shots taken in league play.
Arsenal’s tendency to dominate territory leads to high shot volume, putting constant pressure on the opposition box.
Wigan’s lower shot count reflects their more defensive, counter-attacking approach with limited possession.
Match Preview
The FA Cup always has a way of turning reputations into questions — and Sunday at the Emirates Stadium comes with plenty of them. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal arrive with home comforts behind them, but also with a sharp reminder from a 1-1 draw at Brentford that rhythm can vanish in a moment. Wigan Athletic, under Ryan Lowe, travel south carrying a brutal recent run in League One — yet they’ve already shown they can spring a surprise in this competition, edging Preston North End 1-0 to get here.
Kick-off is 16:30 in north London. Arsenal want dominance and momentum. Wigan want time, patience, and a crack at chaos.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Arsenal Absences
- Mikel Merino (foot surgery) – out until 20/05/2026
- Myles Lewis-Skelly (knee injury) – out
- Max Dowman (ankle injury) – out until 20/02/2026
- Bukayo Saka (hip injury) – out until 23/02/2026
Wigan Absences
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Arsenal Probable XI
Kepa; Ben White, Mosquera, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly; Eberechi Eze, Christian Nørgaard, Declan Rice; Noni Madueke, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli
Wigan Probable XI
Tickle; Fox, Aimson, Kerr; Hunt, Weir, Smith, Murray; Bettoni, Wright; Taylor
Tactical Expectations
Arsenal’s listed XI leans hard into ball security and territory: Rice as the stabiliser, Eze as the breaker, and wide threats designed to pin Wigan back. But the injury note around Lewis-Skelly creates a potential wrinkle if Arsenal have to reshuffle that side. Wigan’s shape reads like a side built to absorb pressure, then spring quickly through the channels.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Arsenal | Wigan Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played (all comps) | 40 | 39 |
| Goals scored | 86 | 39 |
| Goals conceded | 26 | 52 |
| Avg goals scored per game | 2.15 | 1.00 |
| Avg goals conceded per game | 0.65 | 1.33 |
| Avg shots per game | 15.08 | 10.13 |
| Possession | 57% | 45% |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 73% |
| Clean sheets | 21 | 9 |
| Corners (total) | 242 | 197 |
| Red cards (total) | 0 | 7 |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Arsenal’s plan: territory first, then the set-piece squeeze
Arsenal don’t just like possession — they weaponise it. With 57% possession and 85% pass accuracy, they’re built to keep the ball in the opposition half, recycle pressure, and force repeated defensive actions. That matters here because Wigan’s style points to a side comfortable operating in their own half, attacking from the right and crossing often — but also one that can be pulled apart if the ball keeps coming back at them.
And then come the dead balls. Arsenal put four past Portsmouth, all from set-plays, with Martinelli claiming the headlines. When you stack that against Arsenal’s overall attacking volume (15.08 shots per game) and corner count (242 across 40 matches), you get the shape of the game: sustained pressure, restarts, and repeated delivery.
Wigan’s route: survive the first wave, then cross with purpose
Wigan’s possession (45%) and passing (73%) point to a side that won’t try to win a passing contest at the Emirates. Their strengths lean into creating via through balls and using set plays, while their style leans wide: attacking down the right, crossing often, and taking plenty of shots for their level.
The problem? Their weaknesses line up awkwardly with Arsenal’s strengths. Wigan can struggle finishing chances and defending wide attacks — and Arsenal explicitly enjoy attacking down the wings and creating chances through individual skill. If Wigan’s wing-backs get pinned too deep, Wright and Taylor risk becoming passengers, chasing clearances instead of threatening goal.
The mismatch that decides it: control versus discipline
Wigan’s recent run is unforgiving: L5 D1 in the last six, with goals conceded spiking — including that 6-1 at Peterborough. Arsenal, by contrast, arrive W4 D1 L1, and at home have won their last three since a shock defeat to Manchester United.
The other edge is composure. Arsenal have 0 red cards recorded here, while Wigan have 7. In a cup tie where one rash tackle can flip the script, that discipline gap is a quiet alarm bell.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Arsenal’s recent cup performance was built on dead balls. If corners and wide free-kicks stack up early, Wigan will be clinging on.
- Wide pressure and crossing volume: Wigan want to cross; Arsenal want to dominate the wings. The team that wins the wide duels will decide how often the box gets attacked.
- Game state after the hour: Arsenal’s volume game can grind teams down. If Wigan are still level late on, their belief rises — but if they’re chasing, it can get messy fast.
- Discipline and momentum swings: Wigan’s red-card count (7) versus Arsenal’s (0) makes emotional control a real subplot in a high-pressure away day.
What could go wrong?
Arsenal have “home comforts”, but the Brentford 1-1 shows how quickly control can turn into frustration. If the hosts don’t convert early pressure — especially from set pieces — Wigan can drag the tie into longer spells of defending-and-countering, where one well-timed through ball or a big moment from Tickle flips the mood inside the Emirates.
Market Explainer
Handicap Betting
A Handicap gives one team a virtual deficit to overcome. For Pick 1 (Arsenal -2), the selection only wins if Arsenal win by three or more goals. It is used to find competitive prices when one side is heavily favoured.
Pros: Higher price on strong favourites. Cons: Requires a high-margin victory.
Correct Score
The Correct Score market requires the final result to exactly match the predicted scoreline. It is a high-volatility market that rewards precision in analysing defensive and offensive trends.
Pros: Significant potential returns. Cons: Low probability; one goal ruins the bet.
🎯 Arsenal -2 Handicap Rationale
Arsenal enter this fixture with a clear statistical advantage in almost every department. Their attacking efficiency in domestic cup competition has been exceptional, specifically through their set-piece execution. Scoring four goals from dead-ball situations against Portsmouth highlights a level of preparation that Wigan, who have struggled defensively this season, may find impossible to contain. Arsenal’s average of 2.15 goals scored per game, combined with a high shot volume of over 15 per match, suggests they have the firepower to dominate the scoreline.
📊 Tactical Indicators
- Arsenal hit four set-piece goals in their previous cup round.
- Wigan have lost five of their last six matches, including a 6-1 defeat.
- Wigan struggle with discipline, recording seven red cards this season.
Risk Factor: Arsenal may rotate the squad given injuries to Saka and Merino, potentially affecting attacking fluidity.
🎯 Arsenal 3-0 Wigan Rationale
A 3-0 scoreline reflects the significant gulf in quality and form between these two sides. Arsenal’s defensive record is elite, boasting 21 clean sheets and conceding an average of just 0.65 goals per game. At the Emirates, they are particularly adept at controlling territory with 57% possession, which should starve a Wigan side that only averages 45% possession of any meaningful attacking opportunities. Wigan’s reported difficulty in finishing chances suggests they will struggle to breach an Arsenal backline that remains disciplined.
Risk Factor: A solitary counter-attack or set-piece goal from Wigan would invalidate this specific scoreline.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Scored four set-play goals in their last cup game and average over six corners per match.
Conceded six goals in a recent league game and average 1.33 goals conceded per match.
FA Cup Q&A ⊕
⊕What does a -2 Handicap mean for Arsenal?
An Arsenal -2 handicap means the team starts with a virtual two-goal deficit. For the selection to be successful, Arsenal must win the match by a margin of at least three goals (e.g., 3-0, 4-1).
⊕Why is 3-0 a plausible scoreline for this game?
Arsenal average 2.15 goals per game and have 21 clean sheets this season, while Wigan have struggled, recently conceding six goals in a single match. This suggests a comfortable home win to nil is statistically likely.
⊕How does Arsenal’s set-piece form affect the prediction?
Arsenal scored four goals from set-pieces in their last FA Cup tie. Their high corner count (242) suggests they will have multiple opportunities to exploit Wigan’s defensive weaknesses through deliveries into the box.
⊕Can Wigan pull off an upset at the Emirates?
While Wigan beat Preston to reach this stage, their current form of five losses in six matches makes an upset difficult. They would need to improve significantly on their 45% possession average to challenge Arsenal.
⊕What role does discipline play in this cup tie?
Wigan have received seven red cards this season compared to Arsenal’s zero. Under the pressure of a Premier League attack, Wigan’s lack of discipline could lead to cards that further shift the match momentum.
⊕Is Both Teams to Score (BTTS) a likely outcome?
The clean sheet statistics suggest otherwise. Arsenal concede only 0.65 goals per game, while Wigan have often struggled to find the net, averaging only 1.00 goals per game across the season.
⊕Who are the key players for Arsenal in this match?
Gabriel Martinelli, fresh from a cup hat-trick, and Gabriel Jesus are central to the attack. Declan Rice and Eberechi Eze are expected to control the midfield territory and ball security.
⊕How does shot volume influence the betting tips?
Arsenal average 15.08 shots per game compared to Wigan’s 10.13. This sustained offensive pressure increases the likelihood of Arsenal scoring multiple goals and covering handicap margins.
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