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Can Roma’s home advantage overcome Bologna’s impressive away form to secure a place in the next round? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Bologna are in superior form, winning five of their last six away matches and remaining unbeaten in ten Europa League ties. Roma have struggled with just one win in six, and without Dybala, they may lack the clinical edge to break down a resilient, structure-heavy Bologna side.
Read Rationale ▾
Both sides shared a 1-1 draw in the first leg, showing how evenly matched they are. Roma are unbeaten in six European games, while Bologna’s tactical structure is excellent at blunting home pressure. A repeat stalemate feels plausible as both teams prioritise defensive stability in this knockout scenario.
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Roma and Bologna head into Thursday night’s second leg at Stadio Olimpico with the tie locked at 1-1 after a fiercely contested first meeting. There is unfinished business here, and it should show from the first whistle.
Roma vs Bologna — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe for key markets. Probabilities implied from bet365 odds.
Roma’s home advantage makes them 4/6 favourites, though Bologna’s away form poses a threat.
Bologna’s tactical discipline suggests a lower-scoring affair is more likely at the Olimpico.
A 1-1 draw is statistically plausible given the first-leg result and defensive unbeaten streaks.
Bologna dictate play with 54% possession on average in Europe, blunting opposition pressure.
Match Preview: Roma vs Bologna
This one feels tight, tense and loaded with consequence. Roma and Bologna head into Thursday night’s second leg at Stadio Olimpico with the tie locked at 1-1 after a fiercely contested first meeting. Roma had to come from behind in Bologna, and that alone gives this return game a sharp edge.
The mood around the fixture is fascinating. Roma have been harder to trust lately, with just one win in their last six matches, but they remain stubborn in Europe and usually carry more bite on home turf. Bologna, by contrast, arrive in stronger recent shape and with a seriously good away record behind them.
There is unfinished business here, and it should show from the first whistle at 20:00.
Europa League Scoring Output
A look at the total goal tallies for both sides across the current Europa League campaign.
Roma have maintained a consistent scoring record, helping them go unbeaten in their last six matches.
With a higher goal tally and 19 shots per game, Bologna carry significant offensive momentum.
Projected Ball Control
Average possession percentages showing which side typically dictates the tempo.
Roma focus on structure and width but are comfortable sharing the ball in tense matches.
Bologna’s style suggests they will look to control central areas, even away at the Olimpico.
Team News & Probable Lineups
- Roma are without Paulo Dybala, who is sidelined following knee surgery.
- Roma still look set to lean on Lorenzo Pellegrini for creativity high up the pitch.
- Bologna appear likely to stick close to the side that earned the draw in the first leg.
- With the tie so finely balanced, both teams could favour structure first and risk second.
Probable Roma Lineup
Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Celik, Cristante, Kone, Wesley; Pisilli, Pellegrini; Malen
Probable Bologna Lineup
Ravaglia; Zortea, Lucumi, Vitik, Lykogiannis; Ferguson, Freuler, Pobega; Bernardeschi, Castro, Rowe
The shape of the lineups points to a fascinating contrast. Roma’s back three and wide players should give them natural width and depth on the flanks, while Bologna’s setup looks built to crowd central areas and then spring forward through runners either side of Santiago Castro.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Roma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Europa League goals | 14 | 17 |
| Europa League shots per game | 13.6 | 19.0 |
| Europa League possession | 51.6% | 54.0% |
| Europa League pass accuracy | 82.5% | 82.0% |
| Europa League aerials won | 17.1 | 16.5 |
| Europa League record trend | Unbeaten in 6 | Unbeaten in 10 |
Those numbers point to a match that could swing between control and chaos. Bologna are taking more shots and have looked the more forceful attacking side in this competition. Roma, though, hold their own in the air and are not far behind in possession or passing quality, which matters in a game that may be decided by territory, second balls and nerve.
The first leg suggested exactly that. Bologna could push Roma back, but Roma still found a way to stay alive and strike back.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Roma’s width against Bologna’s structure
Roma want to play in the opposition half, use width and push the game onto their terms. That makes the wing spaces vital. With Celik and Wesley likely to operate as the outlets, Roma should try to stretch Bologna early and force their midfield line to shuffle more than it wants to.
Roma also have clear strength in the air. Mancini, Cristante and Ndicka give them a platform to attack second phases, defend crosses and compete when the game turns scrappy. In a tense knockout match, that can be huge. But there is a danger built into Roma’s style. Their weakness against counter-attacks stands out, and Bologna have enough pace and movement in forward areas to attack the space left behind.
Bologna’s chance to punish the gaps
Bologna’s style hints at a side happy to keep the ball, go long when needed and attack with width, especially down the left. That gives them multiple routes into the match rather than a single pattern. Their shot volume in the Europa League is eye-catching at 19 per game. That suggests a side willing to keep asking questions, even if the openings are not clean.
The real opportunity for Bologna may come when Roma commit bodies forward. If Freuler, Ferguson and Pobega can nick the ball and release it quickly, Roma could be exposed. Bologna also defend set pieces well, which could blunt one of Roma’s obvious routes to control.
Where the game could tilt
The central contest looks massive. Roma’s likely front structure, with Pisilli and Pellegrini behind Malen, is built to find pockets and combine quickly around the box. Bologna’s midfield three must stop those connections before they become final balls. Bologna’s weakness in protecting a lead is worth noting. If they score first, that may not settle the contest.
Key Moments to Watch
- Fast starts and first pressure spells: Roma should come out with more territorial ambition at home, while Bologna will back themselves to survive that and break.
- Wide duels: Roma attack down the right and play with width; Bologna also use width and like to hit the left side. Those channels could decide the tie.
- Set pieces: Roma’s aerial strength meets a Bologna side that is strong at defending set plays.
- Counter-attacks: Roma’s weakness in defending transitions is a clear warning sign if they overcommit.
- Discipline and aggression: Both teams play aggressively, so fouls, cards and broken rhythm could shape the match.
Analysis Spotlight
- Bologna bring the hotter run: Bologna have won four of their last six matches and have also won five of their last six away games.
- Roma still carry a threat at home: Roma have won three of their last six home matches and have scored 10 goals across those games.
- This tie is living on a knife-edge: The first leg finished 1-1, Roma are unbeaten in their last six Europa League matches, and Bologna are unbeaten in their last 10.
Game Scenarios
For Roma, the danger is obvious. They push high, lose the ball, and Bologna race into the space behind them. For Bologna, the risk is different but just as serious: they spend too long defending, concede territory, and let Roma build repeat pressure around the box. And if the tie stays level deep into the night, every loose touch, every second ball and every set piece becomes heavier.
📊 Market Explainer
Double Chance
This market allows you to cover two out of three possible outcomes in a single bet. For instance, ‘Bologna or Draw’ wins if Bologna win or if the match ends in a stalemate. It is a lower-risk strategy that provides a safety net against a single result.
Pros: Higher probability of winning. Cons: Lower odds than a single Match Result bet.
Correct Score
This requires predicting the exact final scoreline after 90 minutes. It is a high-volatility market because one late goal can ruin the bet, but it offers significantly higher returns due to the difficulty of the prediction.
Pros: High potential returns. Cons: Very difficult to predict; high risk.
🎯 Pick 1 Rationale: Bologna or Draw (Double Chance)
Bologna enter this second leg in remarkably consistent form, which makes the Double Chance market particularly appealing. They have won four of their last six matches overall and boast an exceptional away record, securing five victories in their last six games on the road. Furthermore, their resilience in the Europa League is proven by a ten-match unbeaten streak in the competition. This suggests they possess the tactical discipline and mental fortitude required to navigate a high-pressure environment like the Stadio Olimpico without suffering defeat.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Bologna average 19 shots per game in the Europa League, showing high offensive activity.
- Roma have only managed one win in their last six matches, indicating a dip in momentum.
- Bologna maintain 54% possession, which should help them dictate play and frustrate the hosts.
The absence of Paulo Dybala for Roma is a significant blow to their creative output. While Roma are traditionally strong at home, their recent form has been patchy. Bologna’s ability to dominate the ball and their superior shot volume suggest they can at least take a draw from this encounter. The main risk factor lies in Roma’s aerial dominance and set-piece threat, which could provide a route to goal even if they are outplayed in open play.
Risk Factor: Roma’s home atmosphere and aerial strength from set-pieces remain their primary weapons.
🎯 Pick 2 Rationale: 1-1 Draw (Correct Score)
A 1-1 draw is the most plausible scoreline given the defensive patterns and recent history of this tie. The first leg in Bologna ended with exactly this result, highlighting how little there is to separate these two teams when they meet. Both sides have displayed impressive unbeaten streaks in the Europa League—six for Roma and ten for Bologna—which underlines a collective refusal to be beaten in continental competition.
Roma Aerials Won
Bologna Shots/Game
Roma have scored 10 goals in their last six home matches, suggesting they are likely to find the net at the Olimpico. However, Bologna’s structure is specifically designed to blunt such pressure, and their high shot volume ensures they remain a constant threat on the counter-attack. With both managers likely to favour structure over high-risk attacking play early on, the game could easily settle into a rhythm where both sides cancel each other out. The primary risk is a late breakthrough or a defensive lapse during set-pieces, given Roma’s strength in the air.
Risk Factor: A late red card or a moment of individual brilliance could break the scoring symmetry.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 17.1 aerial duels per match. Roma use Mancini and Ndicka to dominate set-piece scenarios.
While strong in possession, Bologna can be caught out if Roma’s wing-backs Celik and Wesley stretch the play.
❓ Questions & Answers
⊕What is a Double Chance bet in football?
A Double Chance bet allows you to cover two of the three possible outcomes in a match. By selecting ‘Bologna or Draw’, your bet wins if the away side wins or the game ends in a tie.
It is a popular choice for bettors who want more security than a standard Match Result bet, as it covers 66% of the possible 90-minute results.
⊕How does the Correct Score market work?
Correct Score betting requires you to predict exactly what the score will be at the end of regular time. If you bet on 1-1, any other result like 2-1 or 0-0 means the bet is lost.
This market offers high odds because it is extremely precise and sensitive to single goals scored late in the game.
⊕Why is Dybala’s absence important for Roma?
Paulo Dybala is Roma’s primary creative hub, and his absence due to knee surgery significantly reduces their goal-scoring threat. Without him, Roma must rely more heavily on Lorenzo Pellegrini for invention.
This loss of a key playmaker makes it harder for Roma to break down compact defences like Bologna’s.
⊕Does Bologna’s unbeaten streak include away games?
Yes, Bologna have been exceptional on their travels, winning five of their last six away league matches. This form carries over into their ten-match unbeaten run in European competition.
Their tactical setup is well-suited to playing away from home, where they can use their possession to frustrate the home crowd.
⊕What was the result of the first leg between these teams?
The first leg held in Bologna ended in a 1-1 draw. Roma had to come from behind to secure the draw, setting up this finely balanced second leg.
This previous result confirms that both teams are capable of scoring against each other while maintaining a close tactical battle.
⊕Which team averages more shots in the Europa League?
Bologna average 19.0 shots per game in the Europa League, which is significantly higher than Roma’s average of 13.6. This suggests Bologna are more aggressive in seeking goal-scoring opportunities.
High shot volume is often a sign of a team that is confident and creates a high number of chances.
⊕Is Roma’s home form strong enough to win?
Roma have won three of their last six home matches, scoring 10 goals in that period. While they carry a threat, their overall recent form of only one win in six matches suggests vulnerability.
Bologna’s strong defensive organisation will test whether Roma’s home advantage is enough to produce a victory.
⊕What should I consider before betting on this match?
Consider the tactical mismatch between Roma’s aerial strength and Bologna’s possession-based game. Form and injuries, particularly Dybala’s absence, play a massive role in the final outcome.
Always remember that knockout football can be unpredictable and may go to extra time if the score is tied after 90 minutes.
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