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Can Ludogorets turn Huvepharma Arena into a lifeline — or will Nice spoil the party anyway? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Ludogorets must win to reach the top 24. They have hit three goals in their last two home European games. Nice have lost seven straight away in this competition but score frequently. The home side’s 12-game streak without a European clean sheet makes BTTS inevitable.
Read Rationale ▾
A 2-1 result reflects Ludogorets’ home scoring power and their defensive frailty. Nice have conceded in 15 straight European games, and while they can snag a goal through Cho or Carlos, their poor away record suggests the Bulgarian champions will ultimately edge the win.
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Ludogorets Razgrad vs Nice Predictions and Best Bets
Ludogorets vs Nice — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample William Hill odds for this Europa League fixture.
Current market pricing suggests the Bulgarian champions are the clear favourites at home against a Nice side that has struggled for form on the road.
The market leans towards a relatively open game, with a high implied probability that both sides will contribute to the scoreline.
- One-point knife-edge: Ludogorets sit 25th with seven points, just one point off 24th-placed Celtic, so every moment feels like a playoff.
- Goals at home, chaos at the back: Ludogorets have hit three goals in each of their last two Europa League home games, yet they’ve conceded in 12 straight Europa League matches.
- Nice’s European nightmare: Nice are 33rd with three points, and they’ve lost seven straight away Europa League matches while conceding at least once in 15 straight in the competition.
Match Tempo: Scoring Reliability
A look at recent scoring efficiency as both teams head into this European tie.
The Bulgarian side has been consistent at home, finding the net in nearly every recent outing.
Nice has maintained a steady scoring rate on their travels in domestic and European competition.
Thursday night in Razgrad, this one has a simple edge: Ludogorets need it, Nice don’t — but that doesn’t make it gentle. Per-Mathias Hogmo’s side are fighting for a Europa League playoff spot, sitting 25th and staring at a one-point gap to the top 24. They come in off a frustrating 1-0 loss at Rangers, but Huvepharma Arena has been kind recently: only one defeat in six at home.
Nice, managed by Claude Puel, can’t reach the next round. Still, they arrive with a bit of bounce after a 3-1 Europa League win over Go Ahead Eagles and a 4-1 league victory at Nantes. Kick-off is 20:00, and Ludogorets know exactly what’s required: intensity, goals, and nerve.
Team News & Lineups
Ludogorets Razgrad (Manager: Per Mathias Hogmo)
- Out/Unavailable: Aguibou Camara (surgery, out until 12.04.2026), Pedro Naressi (suspended)
- Probable lineup: Bonmann; Son, Verdon, Almeida, Nedyalkov; Naressi, Duarte; Stanic, Caio, Marcus; Bille
- Implication: If Naressi is suspended, that bites hard in the engine room. Ludogorets can’t afford loose spacing in front of the back four, especially with their habit of conceding in Europe.
Nice (Manager: Claude Puel)
- Out/Unavailable: None listed.
- Probable lineup: Dupe; Mendy, Bah, Mantsounga, Abdi; Everton, Samed; Cho, Louchet, Gouveia; Carlos
- Implication: The front line looks built for pace and direct running. With Mohamed-Ali Cho drifting and Kevin Carlos occupying centre-backs, Nice can punish overcommits — and Ludogorets will push bodies forward.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Ludogorets | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Europa League rank | 25th | 33rd |
| Europa League points | 7 | 3 |
| Europa League record | 2W-1D-4L | 1W-0D-6L |
| Europa League goals (GF/GA) | 11 / 15 | 7 / 14 |
| Shots per game (UEL) | 13.9 | 11.6 |
| Possession (UEL) | 45.8% | 41.9% |
| Pass accuracy (UEL) | 83.0% | 80.3% |
Ludogorets carry more attacking volume and more of the ball, but they’ve also leaked goals consistently in this competition. Nice are lower on possession and shots, yet their matches scream transitional danger — and their defensive record in Europe is shaky too. That points to a game with openings, not a slow chess match.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Ludogorets: go for the jugular, because the table demands it
This is not a “manage the game” night. Ludogorets are a point off the top 24, and their recent European home pattern screams one thing: **AZ-style chaos. They’ve gone 3-2 against Celta Vigo and 3-3 with PAOK in their last two continental home matches.
The key man is Petar Stanic — six goals in this Europa League campaign, plus an assist, and a standout 7.51 rating. Everything good funnels through him: late arrivals, quick combinations, that extra shot when the box looks crowded.
But here’s the catch: Ludogorets have conceded in 12 straight Europa League games. That means any all-out push needs structure behind it. If Naressi is missing, the midfield screen changes entirely — and the back line could face runners straight down the middle.
Nice: less possession, more punch
Nice don’t need to dominate the ball to hurt you. Their strengths are clear: through balls, counter attacks, and wing-based breaks. That’s exactly the profile that can rip open a side chasing goals.
The danger men? Sofiane Diop is Nice’s league top scorer with seven, and Mohamed-Ali Cho brings both goals and assists (four and two). If Ludogorets lose compactness, Nice have the lanes to slip passes through the gaps rather than crossing into crowds.
Nice’s defensive weaknesses, though, invite pressure: they struggle with set pieces, long shots, and counter attacks against them. That’s an open invitation for Ludogorets to load the edge of the box and let Stanic decide when to shoot and when to slide a runner in.
Where the match swings
If Ludogorets score early, the stadium becomes fuel and Nice’s away Europa League record starts to feel heavy. If Nice survive the first wave, every Ludogorets attack becomes a risk — because one sloppy turnover can flip the pitch in seconds.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first 15 minutes: Ludogorets need speed and volume, but they cannot lose their shape chasing an early breakthrough.
- Midfield protection without Naressi: If that suspension stands, Nice’s through balls into the channels become far more threatening.
- Shots from range: Nice struggle against long shots, and Ludogorets have the confidence at home to pull the trigger quickly.
What could go wrong?
For Ludogorets, it’s the familiar European trap: you chase the game, you leave space, and you get hit by one clean pass that turns into a one-on-one. For Nice, it’s discipline and concentration — their Europa League campaign has been punished repeatedly, and conceding first in a hostile ground could turn the night into a scramble.
Best Bet for Ludogorets vs Nice
Can Ludogorets Find a Way into the Top 24 at Home?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home Offense | Ludo: 3 goals/gm last 2 home UEL | Ludogorets Over 1.5 |
| Away Defense | Nice: Conceded in 15 straight UEL | Back BTTS |
| Nice Away Form | 7 straight away losses in UEL | Ludogorets Win |
| Star Power | Petar Stanic: 6 goals in UEL | Stanic Anytime Scorer |
Ludogorets to Win and Both Teams to Score
Ludogorets enter this final league phase match with everything on the line. They are 25th in the table, just one point behind Celtic in the final playoff spot. Their recent home form in the Europa League has been explosive, netting three goals in a 3-2 win over Celta Vigo and another three in a 3-3 draw with PAOK.
This high-scoring trend is a direct result of their tactical approach at the Huvepharma Arena. They average 13.9 shots per game and maintain aggressive pressure. However, this intent often leaves them exposed at the back. They have now conceded in 12 straight Europa League matches, demonstrating a lack of defensive discipline that Nice is well-equipped to exploit.
Nice are already out of contention, but they remain dangerous on the break. They arrive following a 4-1 league win over Nantes and a recent 3-1 victory against Go Ahead Eagles. Players like Mohamed-Ali Cho and Kevin Carlos provide the pace needed to punish Ludogorets on the counter-attack, especially with the Bulgarian side likely missing the suspended Pedro Naressi in midfield.
Nice have a horrific record away from home in this competition, losing seven straight matches. Their defensive record is even worse, with 15 consecutive European games without a clean sheet. This means Ludogorets will find openings, but their own defensive frailties ensure Nice will likely contribute to the scoreline.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk is the suspension of Pedro Naressi. As the defensive anchor in midfield, his absence could leave the back four unprotected against Nice’s pace. If Ludogorets become desperate and over-commit early in the match, they could fall behind and struggle to recover, regardless of Nice’s lack of tournament motivation.
Correct Score Lean
Ludogorets 2-1 Nice
This scoreline aligns with the statistical reality of both clubs. Ludogorets have proven they can score multiple goals at home but possess a defense that has failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 straight European games. Nice have lost seven consecutive away matches in the Europa League but have shown improved offensive form in domestic play. A 2-1 victory provides the home side with the points they need for the top 24 while reflecting the defensive gaps that have plagued both sides throughout this campaign.
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