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Can Lille regain their European composure against a Red Star Belgrade side arriving with maximum momentum? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Lille dominate possession at home (60.8%) and are clinical at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, winning three of four European league games. However, Red Star arrive on a six-match unbeaten streak and feature clinical threats like Arnautovic, making a home win with goals at both ends highly plausible.
Read Rationale ▾
Lille’s left-sided overloads and high shot volume (14.5 per game) suggest they will breach a Red Star defence that conceded in November’s reverse fixture. Red Star’s superior momentum and early scoring average (37 minutes) support them grabbing a consolation in a narrow French victory.
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Thursday night at Stade Pierre-Mauroy has that sharp, knockout edge: first leg, little margin, and plenty of narrative fuel. Lille step into the Europa League knockout phase again with a domestic wobble hanging in the air.
Lille vs Red Star Belgrade — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Lille took maximum points in three of four home European matches, giving them the statistical edge at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Red Star Belgrade have seen under 2.5 goals in six of their latest Europa League matches, suggesting a tighter contest.
Lille average 14.5 shots per game, while Red Star’s superior momentum makes a 2-1 result look statistically plausible.
Lille’s 60.8% possession average in Europe points towards a match where they will camp in the opposition’s territory.
Match Preview
Lille step into the Europa League knockout phase again with a domestic wobble hanging in the air — points dropped week after week, and only one win so far in 2026. Red Star Belgrade, though, bring a different vibe. They finished the league phase two points above Lille and have rolled through recent fixtures with confidence. Add in the fact Lille were beaten 1-0 in the previous meeting back in November, and you’ve got a clear sense of unfinished business. Kick-off is 20:00. The opening act of this tie needs authority, not anxiety.
Possession and Accuracy: Control Metrics
Lille’s identity is built on high volume passing and ball retention compared to Red Star’s more direct approach.
Their high pass accuracy of 86.5% underpins a style that aims to camp in the opposition half.
With 81.0% pass accuracy, Belgrade focus on structure rather than total ball dominance.
Attacking Output: Europa League Stats
A comparison of shot volume and goals scored during the league phase campaign.
Lille create repeatable opportunities through patient pressure and individual skill.
Belgrade have managed 7 goals from fewer shots, suggesting they wait for high-quality openings.
Key Statistics
- Home platform, European style: Lille took maximum points in three of four home Europa League league-phase matches and still managed two clean sheets along the way at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
- Momentum vs mood: Red Star arrive with 5 wins and 1 draw from their last six in all competitions, while Lille’s last six reads 1 win, 2 draws, 3 defeats.
- Ball and territory tell a story: Lille average 60.8% possession and 86.5% pass accuracy in the Europa League, while Red Star sit at 48.1% possession with 81.0% pass accuracy.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Lille Absences
- E. Mbappé Lottin – dead leg (out until 31.03.2026)
- A. Bouaddi – red card suspension
- O. Touré – cruciate ligament tear
- O. Sahraoui – pubalgia
Red Star Belgrade Absences
No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lille XI
Ozer; Santos, Mandi, Ngoy, Verdonk; Mukau, Andre, Bouaddi, Correia; Giroud, Fernandez-Pardo
Probable Red Star Belgrade XI
Matheus; Seol, Rodrigao, Veljkovic, Tiknizyan; Lucic, Elsnik, Krunic, Radonjic; Katai, Arnautovic
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Europa League) | Lille | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| League phase finish | 18th (12 pts) | 15th (14 pts) |
| Record (GP-W-D-L) | 8-4-0-4 | 8-4-2-2 |
| Goals (GF-GA) | 12-9 | 7-6 |
| Shots per game | 14.5 | 12.1 |
| Possession % | 60.8% | 48.1% |
| Pass % | 86.5% | 81.0% |
| Team rating | 6.68 | 6.61 |
Tactical Analysis
Lille’s Game Plan
Bruno Genesio leans into a familiar idea: possession football, control in the opposition half, and a clear bias to attack down the left. Lille’s Europa League profile fits that — 60.8% possession, 86.5% pass accuracy, and 14.5 shots per game. That points to a match where Lille will try to camp in Red Star territory, recycle the ball, and force a defensive line to shift again and again. Their strengths back it up too: creating scoring chances, individual skill, and a real edge at set pieces at both ends.
Red Star Belgrade’s Game Plan
Dejan Stanković’s side don’t need to dominate the ball to feel in control of the tie. In the Europa League they’re at 48.1% possession, and their last six in all competitions is relentless: five wins, one draw. They also look built for the “one chance can change everything” rhythm. Marko Arnautovic has 2 Europa League goals (and 1 assist) and brings a clear focal point. Red Star have trends pointing to tighter European games — including under 2.5 goals in six of their latest Europa League matches.
Game-State Scenarios
- Set pieces at both ends: Lille are strong attacking and defending set pieces. If this first leg is cagey, dead balls can be the difference between “control” and “comfort.”
- Midfield balance and discipline: Lille’s shape could shift if Bouaddi’s suspension forces changes. Red Star will sense any unfamiliar pairing and try to play through the middle early.
- First goal timing: Lille’s average first goal time sits at 51’, while Red Star’s is 37’. If Red Star land the first punch, the entire tie’s psychology flips.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Lille, the danger is sterile domination — big possession, plenty of entries, and one loose moment that turns the stadium tense. For Red Star, it’s the opposite: defending for too long invites one lapse, one set-piece scramble, one finish from Olivier Giroud that changes the tone of the night.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires you to predict the winner of the match and whether both teams will score at least one goal. It offers higher odds than a simple win bet because two independent events must occur. It is often suited to matches where a strong home side has defensive vulnerabilities.
Correct Score
A Correct Score bet requires the exact final scoreline at the end of 90 minutes. This is a high-volatility market with larger rewards, as the margin for error is zero. Game-state changes, such as early goals or late substitutions, significantly impact the likelihood of a specific result holding.
🎯 Lille vs Red Star Belgrade: Match Analysis
Lille’s identity is firmly rooted in territorial dominance, as evidenced by their 60.8% average possession and 86.5% pass accuracy in European competition. At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, they have been formidable, taking maximum points in three of their four home league-phase matches. Bruno Genesio’s side creates a high volume of chances, averaging 14.5 shots per game, and they possess a significant threat from set-pieces. However, a domestic slump in 2026 has seen them win just once in their last six outings, conceding goals in four of those matches. This vulnerability at the back is a primary factor when considering the potential for a high-scoring home win.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Lille have won 3 of their last 4 home European fixtures.
- Red Star Belgrade average an early opening goal time of 37 minutes.
- Lille have kept clean sheets in 50% of their home European games but struggle for form in 2026.
Risk Factor: Lille’s recent domestic wobble could lead to anxious defending if they fail to score early.
Red Star Belgrade arrive in France with significant momentum, boasting five wins and one draw from their last six matches across all competitions. They finished two points higher than Lille in the league phase and have already defeated the French side 1-0 this season. Dejan Stanković’s men are comfortable without the ball, as shown by their 48.1% possession average, but they are clinical in transitions. With Marko Arnautovic providing a veteran focal point in attack, they are highly likely to test a Lille defence that has looked shaky. Given Lille’s home strength and Red Star’s momentum, a narrow 2-1 victory for the hosts aligns with the statistical profiles of both sides.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Ranked as a top strength for both attacking and defending dead-ball situations in Europe.
Red Star often surrender 60%+ territory when facing high-accuracy passing sides like Lille.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What does “Match Result & BTTS” mean?
What is a Match Result and Both Teams to Score bet?
This is a combined bet where you pick a winner and predict that both teams will score. For the bet to win, your chosen team must win and the final score must include goals from both sides (e.g., 2-1, 3-1, 3-2).
⊕ Why is Lille favoured to win?
Why are Lille the favourites for this Europa League tie?
Lille have a strong home record in Europe, winning three of their four home matches during the league phase. Their high possession (60.8%) and shot volume (14.5 per game) suggest they will control the game’s rhythm.
⊕ Can Red Star Belgrade cause an upset?
Could Red Star Belgrade beat Lille again?
Red Star have already defeated Lille 1-0 this season and arrive with superior momentum, having gone unbeaten in their last six matches. Their efficiency in front of goal makes them dangerous outsiders.
⊕ What is a Correct Score bet?
How does a Correct Score bet work?
A Correct Score bet requires you to predict the exact final score of the match at full-time. Because it is difficult to get exactly right, the odds are typically much higher than other markets.
⊕ Who are the key players for Red Star Belgrade?
Who should Lille be wary of in the Red Star lineup?
Marko Arnautovic is the primary goal threat with two European goals this season. Midfielder Rade Krunic also plays a vital role, currently holding the team’s highest performance rating of 7.06.
⊕ Is under 2.5 goals likely in this game?
Is this expected to be a low-scoring match?
Statistics show that six of Red Star Belgrade’s latest Europa League matches have finished with under 2.5 goals. This suggests they may employ a defensive strategy to keep the tie close for the second leg.
⊕ What time does Lille vs Red Star Belgrade kick off?
What is the start time for the Lille vs Red Star game?
The match is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday, 19 February. It will be held at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Lille.
⊕ Why is possession important in this match?
How will ball possession affect the outcome?
Lille use possession (60.8%) to tire opponents out and create overloads. Red Star’s lower possession (48.1%) shows they are happy to defend deep and strike on the counter-attack.
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