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Can Pereira’s Nottingham Forest survive the Saracoğlu storm and keep this tie alive for the City Ground? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Fenerbahce are unbeaten in their last six matches and dominant at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium. Pereira’s Forest are in poor domestic form, sitting 17th. While Forest create volume, Fenerbahce’s clinical finishing and ability to control the game should see them exploit Forest’s defensive vulnerabilities on transitions and long-range shots.
Read Rationale ▾
Forest have a high shot volume in Europe, averaging 16 per game, which makes an away goal plausible. However, Fenerbahce’s superior control and set-piece threat (very strong) should allow them to outscore the visitors. A 2-1 reflects the hosts’ home strength while acknowledging Forest’s consistent ability to find the net.
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New manager, new energy — and instantly a brutal away day. Vitor Pereira begins his Nottingham Forest reign in Istanbul, with the Tricky Trees facing Fenerbahce in the Europa League.
Fenerbahce vs Nottm Forest — Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on match analysis.
Fenerbahce’s unbeaten six-match run suggests they hold the tactical edge over a Forest side adapting to new leadership.
Fenerbahce’s home matches tend to be lower scoring, conceding just 0.75 goals per game in the competition phase.
A 1-1 draw holds the highest implied probability, reflecting Forest’s scoring consistency despite Fenerbahce’s defensive home record.
Fenerbahce average 59.9% possession in the Europa League, indicating they will likely dictate the tempo in Istanbul.
Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest: Match Preview
New manager, new energy — and instantly a brutal away day. Vitor Pereira begins his Nottingham Forest reign in Istanbul, with the Tricky Trees facing Fenerbahce at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in the first leg of their Europa League knockout-round play-off.
It’s the first ever meeting between the clubs, and it lands at a tense moment for Forest. A turbulent season has rolled through multiple managerial changes, and Pereira now inherits a side sitting 17th in the Premier League, three points above the drop zone, with 12 league matches left. But Europe has offered a different face: Forest finished 13th in the 36-team league phase and scored 15 goals in eight games. Fenerbahce finished 19th, yet arrive with serious form, unbeaten in six across their last six in all competitions — and they don’t need much noise in this stadium to turn a fixture into a fight.
Volume vs Control: Possession & Shots
A comparison of ball control and attacking output across their Europa League campaigns so far.
Fenerbahce prioritise keeping the ball to sustain pressure in the opponent’s half.
Despite lower possession, Forest shoot frequently, though finishing remains an issue.
Defensive Reliability
Gauging resilience at the back during the European league phase.
Home matches are typically tight, with a focus on defensive structure.
Forest matched Fenerbahce’s defensive output during the 36-team league phase.
- Ball-Hog Heavyweights: Fenerbahce average 59.9% possession in the Europa League and Forest sit at 54.2%, so this could be a contest of control rather than chaos.
- Shots, Shots, Shots: Forest fired 35 shots in a goalless draw with Wolves recently, and they average 16 shots per Europa League game — volume is there, the finish must follow.
- Home Tightrope: Fenerbahce’s last three home Europa League matches have stayed under 2.5 goals, and they concede 0.75 goals per home game in the competition.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Fenerbahce absences
- E. Álvarez Velázquez (ankle surgery) – out until 31.03.2026
- F. Günok (no eligibility) – out until 27.02.2026
- A. Fall (no eligibility) – out until 27.02.2026
- E. Mor (no eligibility) – out until 27.02.2026
Nottingham Forest absences
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Managers
- Fenerbahce: Domenico Tedesco
- Nottingham Forest: Vitor Pereira
Probable lineups
Fenerbahce (possible XI): Ederson; Semedo, Skriniar, Oosterwolde, Muldur; Yuksek, Guendouzi, Kanté; Asensio, Talisca, Akturkoglu
Nottingham Forest (possible XI): Gunn; Aina, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams; Anderson, Sangaré; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Jesus
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| League-phase finish | 19th (12 pts) | 13th (14 pts) |
| Europa League goals (8 apps) | 10 | 15 CLINICAL |
| Europa League goals conceded (8 apps) | 7 | 7 |
| Shots per game (Europa League) | 15.1 | 16.0 |
| Possession (Europa League) | 59.9% | 54.2% |
| Pass accuracy (Europa League) | 84.8% | 86.0% |
| Yellow cards (all comps sample) | 96 | 57 |
Tactical Battle
Fenerbahce’s plan: squeeze, shoot, and strike from angles
Fenerbahce are built to play high. Their style is all about controlling the game in the opposition’s half, short passes, and attacking through the middle, with a clear love for long shots. That tracks with their strengths: finishing scoring chances (very strong), creating long shot opportunities (very strong) and shooting from direct free-kicks (very strong).
In practical terms, this looks like sustained pressure and quick releases around the edge of the box. With Marco Asensio (10 goals, 8 assists in the league) and Anderson Talisca (13 goals) in the same XI, Fenerbahce have genuine punch from range and from the half-spaces. Forest’s listed weakness of defending against long shots is a flashing warning light here.
Forest’s problem: plenty of shots… but can they land the blow?
Forest’s style says play with width, attempt crosses often, take a lot of shots, and control the game in the opposition’s half — which is not what you’d expect from a side sitting 17th domestically. In Europe, the output has been real: 15 goals in eight matches and 16 shots per game.
The issue is the sharp edge. Forest are weak at finishing scoring chances, and their recent goalless draw with Wolves came despite 35 shots. That’s domination without the payoff, and away in Istanbul, wasted moments tend to come back with interest.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early set-piece range: Fenerbahce are very strong from direct free-kicks and strong at attacking set pieces. One clumsy foul in a hot zone can tilt the whole leg.
- Long-shot management: Forest’s weakness defending long shots meets Fenerbahce’s love of them. If Forest don’t get out to the ball, the net could start shaking.
- Counter-attack vigilance: Forest are weak defending counter-attacks, and Fenerbahce are strong on counter attacks. Any sloppy turnover in midfield is a stress test.
- Discipline in the noise: Fenerbahce rack up 2.59 yellow cards per game in the discipline sample shown. If emotions spill, it changes the shape of the game fast.
📊 Market Analysis & Tactical Insight
Match Result (1X2)
This is the most common market where you predict either a Home Win, Draw, or Away Win at full-time. It is straightforward but offers no insurance if the match ends in a stalemate.
Correct Score
A high-reward market that requires predicting the exact final scoreline. Because of the difficulty, prices are significantly higher, reflecting the low probability of precision.
🎯 Pick 1: Fenerbahce to Win (11/10)
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Fenerbahce are unbeaten in their last six matches across all competitions.
- Nottingham Forest are in poor domestic form, sitting 17th in the Premier League.
- The hosts control 59.9% of possession, allowing them to dictate the pace in Istanbul.
Fenerbahce enter this first-leg tie with momentum on their side, boasting a six-match unbeaten streak. Domenico Tedesco has created a side that dominates the ball, averaging nearly 60% possession in Europe. This control is vital at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, where the atmosphere typically overwhelms visiting teams. With creative forces like Asensio and Talisca operating in the half-spaces, Fenerbahce are adept at sustaining pressure against teams that lack defensive structure.
Nottingham Forest, conversely, are adjusting to the leadership of Vitor Pereira amidst a relegation battle. While they have been adventurous in Europe, their defensive fragility—especially against long-range shots and on the counter-attack—plays directly into Fenerbahce’s strengths. Forest create significant shot volume, but their inability to convert those chances suggests they will struggle to match the clinical output of the Turkish giants away from home.
Risk Factor: Pereira may set up a highly defensive block to frustrate the hosts, and Forest’s counter-attacking speed remains a threat if Fenerbahce over-commit.
🎯 Pick 2: Correct Score 2-1 (15/2)
FOREST SHOTS/GAME
FENER GOALS/GAME
Predicting a 2-1 scoreline balances Fenerbahce’s superior home form with Nottingham Forest’s high-volume attacking style. Forest average 16 shots per game in the Europa League and managed 15 goals in eight league-phase matches. Even in a difficult away environment, their persistent shooting suggests they can find the net at least once. However, Fenerbahce’s strength in finishing scoring chances and their dominance from direct free-kicks provide them with more reliable routes to multiple goals.
Tactically, Fenerbahce’s last three home European matches have been relatively tight, but Forest’s tendency to allow long-range opportunities is a major concern. Talisca and Asensio are specialist threats from distance, and in a game where Forest may find themselves pinned back, a breakthrough from range or a set-piece is highly likely. A 2-1 victory allows for Forest to remain competitive in the tie while confirming Fenerbahce’s edge in Istanbul.
Risk Factor: If Forest fail to find their clinical edge—as seen in their 35-shot goalless draw with Wolves—this could easily slide into a 2-0 scoreline.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Specialists in range shooting with Asensio and Talisca firing from the half-spaces.
Struggle to close down the ball quickly, leaving the goalkeeper exposed to distance strikes.
❓ Match Questions & Answers
⊕ What is the kick-off time for Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest?
The match kicks off at 17:45 UK time on 19 February 2026. This is the first leg of the Europa League knockout play-off round.
⊕ Who is the current manager of Nottingham Forest?
Vitor Pereira is the manager of Nottingham Forest. He begins his tenure with this challenging away fixture in Istanbul.
⊕ Where is the match being played?
The game is being held at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium. It is the home ground of Fenerbahce, known for its intense atmosphere.
⊕ What does “Match Result” betting mean?
Match Result betting is a wager on the final outcome of the game: Home Win, Away Win, or a Draw. It only covers the 90 minutes of regulation time.
⊕ Why is 2-1 a plausible scoreline for this match?
Forest shoot frequently and average 16 shots per game, making an away goal likely. However, Fenerbahce’s home dominance and clinical edge should see them score twice.
⊕ Is Edson Álvarez playing for Fenerbahce?
No, Edson Álvarez is currently out following ankle surgery. He is not expected to return until late March 2026.
⊕ What is Forest’s biggest weakness in this matchup?
Forest are weak at defending against long shots. This is a critical mismatch as Fenerbahce specialise in creating and finishing chances from distance.
⊕ How do I place a “Correct Score” bet?
Navigate to the “Correct Score” market on your bookmaker’s app and select the specific scoreline (e.g., 2-1). The odds will be higher because the result must be exact.
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Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
