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Can Doncaster flip their league misery into Trophy momentum — or will Fleetwood’s counter-punch spoil the night at Eco-Power? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams have conceded 33+ goals this season and are statistically prone to individual errors. Their last meeting saw four goals, and both teams average over 12 shots per game.
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Freiburg are the more efficient side with better passing and control. While Augsburg’s home pressure should yield a goal, their weakness against counters favors a narrow Freiburg win.
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Doncaster Rovers vs Fleetwood Town Predictions and Best Bets
Doncaster vs Fleetwood — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and pricing shown below based on match analysis.
Doncaster’s perfect record in the Trophy gives them the upper hand despite league struggles, with Fleetwood remaining a dangerous counter-attacking threat.
Both sides have shown high scoring volume in this competition, with Doncaster’s clean sheet record balanced by Fleetwood’s aerial prowess.
- Perfect Cup Bubble: Doncaster stormed their EFL Trophy group with three wins from three, then smashed Chesterfield 5-1 — a different team when the Trophy lights come on.
- Control vs Air War: Doncaster average 51.9% possession with 73.2% pass accuracy, but Fleetwood win 28.2 aerials per game — expect a battle over territory, not just touches.
- Two Very Different Moods: Doncaster have lost six of their last seven and drawn the other, while Fleetwood’s last six show two wins, one draw, three defeats — shaky, but not spiralling.
Tactical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Fleetwood’s physical approach in the air contrasts with Doncaster’s structure on the ground.
Led by James Bolton (6.1 won), they use height to disrupt and start transitions.
A lower aerial volume reflects their preference for 51.9% possession and structure.
Scoring Reliability: Overall Goals
Both sides have maintained consistent scoring volumes across the current campaign.
Maintaining a healthy average of 1.33 goals per game this season.
Averaging exactly one goal per match, bolstered by strong Trophy form.
A quarter-final spot is up for grabs at the Eco-Power Stadium, and both sides arrive with a bruise from the FA Cup. Doncaster were beaten 3-2 by Southampton on Saturday, but clawed back through Matty Pearson and Jordan Gibson — a reminder there’s fight in this group even when the results are grim.
And grim is the word in the league: six defeats in seven has dragged Grant McCann’s side down to 23rd. The Trophy, though, has been their escape hatch. Fleetwood, under Pete Wild, have their own reason to come out swinging: this is a chance to keep their last remaining cup run alive, and they’ve shown in this competition they can score freely. Kick-off is 19:00.
Team News & Lineups
Team News
Doncaster Rovers absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Fleetwood Town absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Doncaster Rovers:
Clark; Sterry, Pearson, Grehan, Senior; Bailey, Gotts; Molyneux, Gibson, Adelakun; Sharp
Fleetwood Town:
Harrington; Rooney, Haughey, Medley; Helm, Davies, Virtue, Hughes, Ennis; Evans, Davies
What it means
Doncaster’s XI looks built to play sharp and direct between the lines: Luke Molyneux and Jordan Gibson supplying angles for Billy Sharp. The worry is the same one that’s haunted their league run — they’re very weak at protecting the lead, so game management has to match the early intent.
Fleetwood’s shape points to a back three with width ahead of it, and a front pair designed to stretch. If they can keep the match loose, their counter-attacks and individual quality become a real problem.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Doncaster Rovers | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| League goals | 24 (24 apps) | 32 (24 apps) |
| Shots per game | 12.0 | 12.1 |
| Possession | 51.9% | 47.3% |
| Pass accuracy | 73.2% | 67.6% |
| Aerials won (per game) | 21.1 | 28.2 |
| Clean sheets (overall) | 7 (34 played) | 6 (32 played) |
Doncaster’s numbers point to more ball and more structure. Fleetwood’s point to more chaos and more muscle in the air. Shots are basically level — which screams “moments” — so the deciding factor could be where those chances land: Doncaster’s through-balls into feet, or Fleetwood’s breaks and second balls.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Doncaster’s route: crosses, through balls, and a fast start
Doncaster want to move it with purpose. Their style leans on crosses often and through balls often, with attacks funnelled through the middle and runners peeling into the channels. That should suit Molyneux (six assists in the league) and Gibson, who already showed at the weekend he can arrive late and get a finish away.
The problem is the sharp end. Doncaster are weak at finishing scoring chances, and when a team is winless in seven, you can feel it: the extra touch, the snatched shot, the final pass a yard behind. If Sharp is leading the line, Doncaster need service early and clean — not hopeful.
There’s also a hidden danger in how they defend: they’re weak against through balls, and Fleetwood love attempting them. If Doncaster’s back line steps up and misses the trap, it’s a straight run at goal.
Fleetwood’s route: counter-attacks, right-side thrust, and set-piece pressure
Fleetwood are at their best when the match breaks open. Their strengths are loud: counter-attacks are very strong, and so is coming back from losing positions. That’s not just mentality — it’s a style that keeps them alive even when they’re behind.
They also carry a big physical edge in the air: 28.2 aerials won per game in League Two is a statement. James Bolton (6.1 aerials won, rating 7.26) gives them a platform to clear, step in, and start transitions. On the ball, Fleetwood can be direct — through balls, crosses, and a bias towards attacking down the right.
The risk? Discipline and dead balls. Fleetwood are very weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas and also weak defending set pieces. Against a Doncaster side that is strong defending set pieces, that could tilt key moments at both ends.
Key Moments to Watch
- First goal swing: Doncaster’s “protect the lead” issue is real, so an early advantage only matters if they keep their heads after it.
- Set pieces: Fleetwood can give away dangerous fouls, and they don’t love defending dead balls — Doncaster must make corners and free kicks count.
- Aerial duels and second balls: Fleetwood’s aerial numbers are huge; Doncaster’s weakness in aerial duels means the midfield has to hoover up knockdowns.
- Through-ball timing: Doncaster can be opened up by balls slid behind, and Fleetwood actively look for that pass.
What could go wrong?
If Doncaster start well but don’t land the knockout punch, the tension will rise. Missed chances plus Fleetwood counters is a nasty cocktail — especially with Doncaster vulnerable to through balls and notoriously shaky when trying to close a game out. One sloppy line, one cheap foul, one big second ball… and the tie can turn on its head.
Best Bet for Doncaster vs Fleetwood
Can Doncaster flip their league misery into Trophy momentum—or will Fleetwood’s counter-punch spoil the night at Eco-Power?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Cup Form | Donny: 4/4 wins; FTFC: 7 pts in groups | Home Win |
| Goals Scored | Donny: 24 goals; FTFC: 32 goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Aerial Battle | FTFC: 28.2 won; Donny: 21.1 won | FTFC Corners |
| Defense | Donny: 7 clean sheets; FTFC: 6 | BTTS: Yes |
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Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
Doncaster are a different beast when the Trophy lights come on. While their league form is grim—six defeats in their last seven—their cup record is perfect. They swept their group with three wins from three before dismantling Chesterfield 5-1 in the previous round. This means the side finds an offensive rhythm in this competition that is missing in their Saturday schedule.
Fleetwood arrive with more chaos in their profile. They win a massive 28.2 aerial duels per game, a physical advantage that will test a Doncaster defense that is notoriously weak at protecting leads. Because Fleetwood are very strong at counter-attacking and coming back from losing positions, a single Doncaster goal is rarely enough to kill the game.
The tactical matchup also points toward goals. Fleetwood are weak at defending set pieces and avoid fouling in dangerous areas poorly. Conversely, Doncaster are weak at defending through-balls, which is exactly how Fleetwood prefer to attack. Both sides possess the specific tools required to exploit the other’s primary defensive flaw.
With Billy Sharp leading the line for Doncaster and Fleetwood’s tendency to keep games loose, expect a back-and-forth affair. Since shots per game are nearly identical at 12.0 and 12.1, the volume of chances will be high. The clinical nature of both teams in cup competitions suggests those chances will be converted.
What could go wrong? If Doncaster fails to land an early blow, the match could become a cagey battle for territory. Fleetwood’s aerial dominance might allow them to sit deep and frustrate the hosts, leading to a lower-scoring affair. Furthermore, if Doncaster’s finishing struggles from the league follow them into the Trophy, they may fail to hold up their end of the scoring bargain.
Correct Score Lean
Doncaster 2-1 Fleetwood
Doncaster have the structure and home advantage to edge this, especially with Billy Sharp finding his scoring touch in this competition. Their 51.9% average possession allows them to dictate the tempo at Eco-Power Stadium. While Fleetwood’s counter-attacking strength and aerial power almost guarantee they will find the net, their defensive struggles against set-pieces often prove fatal. A 2-1 scoreline mirrors Doncaster’s ability to create high-quality chances while remaining vulnerable enough at the back to concede.
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