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Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: Forest Seek Immediate Response in EFL Cup Rematch. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Forest showed strong attacking promise with 0.88 non-penalty xG and two woodwork hits despite a 1-0 loss. Leeds' efficient shooting, led by Anton Stach's set-piece threat, and expected rotation lowering defensive cohesion suggest both teams will score in this EFL Cup rematch.
A 1-1 draw suits the tight margins and rotation expected. Forest's strong chance creation and Leeds' set-piece threat balance scoring potential. Absences and midfield transitions limit control, making a draw a logical outcome between evenly matched sides.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Nottingham Forest v Leeds.
Nottingham Forest barely have time to digest Saturday’s 1-0 defeat before Leeds United return to the City Ground for Tuesday night’s EFL Cup tie.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Nottingham Forest and Leeds United bring contrasting strengths, leaving this market finely balanced.
Forest and Leeds have similar recent form, making the match outcome unpredictable.
Both sides created quality chances last match, supporting goals from both teams.
A 1-1 scoreline reflects balanced scoring chances and expected squad rotation.
Three Punchy Stats
- Forest produced 0.88 non-penalty xG to Leeds’ 0.75. on Saturday, underlining how little separated the sides in chance creation despite Leeds taking the points.
- Leeds recorded 0.63 xG on target compared with Forest’s 0.34. , suggesting their efforts were struck with greater threat even though Forest generated marginally more overall attacking value.
- Stach has scored five league goals from outside the box since the start of last season, including four direct free-kicks. , making careless fouls around shooting range a genuine concern for Forest after Saturday’s late winner.
Expected Goals Comparison
Recent attacking records for Nottingham Forest and Leeds United are shown below.
Shot Quality Comparison
Recent defensive records for Nottingham Forest and Leeds United are shown below.
Anton Stach’s 88th-minute free-kick separated the sides in the Premier League opener, but the scoreline did not reflect any obvious gulf between them.
Forest produced 0.88 non-penalty expected goals to Leeds’ 0.75, struck the woodwork twice and also saw Igor Jesus head wide. Leeds, though, registered the stronger xG on target figure and ultimately made one set-piece opportunity count. Four days later, Oliver Glasner has an immediate chance to see whether his new side can turn competitive pressure into something more tangible.
Forest need more than territorial promise
Glasner’s first competitive match offered encouragement without reward. Forest were not comprehensively outplayed, yet their 0.34 xG on target compared with Leeds’ 0.63 helps explain why promising moments failed to become goals.
That distinction matters. Creating attempts and threatening situations is useful, but the quality of the eventual efforts still has to be high enough to trouble the goalkeeper. Saturday suggested Forest could generate pressure while lacking the final precision required to convert it.
The midfield remains an area of transition following Elliot Anderson’s move to Manchester City. Ibrahim Sangare and James McAtee were used against Leeds, but Forest did not enjoy the same control previously provided by Anderson. With widespread changes expected for the cup tie, Glasner must also balance experimentation with the need to establish rhythm.
Nicolo Savona and Ryan Yates remain unavailable. John Victor could start in goal, while Ousmane Diomande is in contention for his Forest debut as Glasner uses the competition to assess the depth of his squad.
Leeds have found a useful way to win tight games
Leeds arrive with momentum stretching beyond Saturday. Their last six matches in all competitions have produced five victories and one draw, including wins over Liverpool, RB Leipzig and Augsburg before the league success at Forest.
More relevant than the sequence itself is how Saturday was won. Leeds did not create a stream of clear openings from open play, but their shooting was more effective once efforts reached the target and Stach supplied the decisive moment from a dead ball.
His wider record makes that winner difficult to dismiss as a freak occurrence. Stach has scored five league goals from outside the penalty area since the start of last season, four directly from free-kicks, while also contributing three assists in 28 appearances from 29 league matches. His ability to operate in four different positions also gives Daniel Farke useful flexibility if Leeds rotate.
Rotation changes the calculation
Both managers are expected to alter their starting sides after such a short turnaround. Forest could introduce Diomande, Omari Hutchison and Callum Hudson-Odoi, while Leeds have Dan James, Sean Longstaff, Sam Byram and Largie Ramazani pushing for involvement.
Farke’s attacking options are reduced by the absences of Wilfried Gnonto, Noah Okafor and Mateo Joseph, with Ilia Gruev also sidelined. Gabriel Gudmundsson may again be spared.
That makes this rematch less straightforward than simply replaying Saturday. The underlying balance was already narrow, and greater personnel change introduces another variable. Forest have home advantage and an immediate opportunity to correct what went wrong; Leeds have the stronger recent sequence and have now won three of the last four meetings.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Both teams must score at least once during normal time. The match winner does not matter; the selection is settled only by whether each side finds the net.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Nottm Forest vs Leeds United 1-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
Pick 1: Both Teams To Score YES @ 8/11
Nottingham Forest’s immediate rematch with Leeds United presents a quick opportunity to turn attacking promise into tangible goals. In Saturday’s Premier League meeting, Forest generated 0.88 non-penalty expected goals, hit the woodwork on two occasions, and saw Igor Jesus head wide from a prominent position. That volume demonstrates that Oliver Glasner’s side can breach the Leeds defensive line, even if their ultimate return was restricted by a modest 0.34 expected goals on target figure.
Leeds arrive having scored in a run that includes five victories across their last six fixtures in all competitions, backed by efficient shooting quality. Despite creating only 0.75 expected goals on Saturday, Daniel Farke’s team posted 0.63 expected goals on target, led by Anton Stach’s set-piece threat. Stach has registered five league goals from outside the penalty area since the start of last season, four coming directly from free-kicks. With extensive squad rotation anticipated—potentially introducing Omari Hutchinson and Callum Hudson-Odoi for Forest alongside Dan James and Sean Longstaff for Leeds—defensive familiarity is likely to drop on both sides.
Leeds do travel without Wilfried Gnonto, Noah Okafor, and Mateo Joseph, which reduces Farke’s available front-line options, while Forest missed key control following Elliot Anderson’s transfer to Manchester City. Nevertheless, with Forest seeking immediate home redress and Leeds showing consistent threat across recent outings, conditions favour both teams finding the net in normal time.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Forest generated 0.88 non-penalty xG and hit the woodwork twice in Saturday's 1-0 defeat against Leeds.
- Leeds recorded 0.63 xG on target from 0.75 total xG, converting set-piece pressure into late success.
- Anticipated squad rotation brings fresh starters for both sides while reducing defensive unit cohesion.
Risk Factor: Extensive squad changes could disrupt attacking fluidity or cause either side to fail converting chances, risking a clean sheet.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Reorganising after Elliot Anderson's exit, yielding higher xG on target (0.63) than total xG conceded (0.75) on Saturday.
Anton Stach has 5 goals from outside the box since last season (4 direct free-kicks), making distance set-plays a major weapon.
Pick 2: Nottm Forest vs Leeds United 1-1 @ 11/2
A 1-1 draw reflects the tight competitive margins that defined Saturday’s league opener while accommodating expected midweek rotation. Forest’s underlying creation profile on Saturday—yielding 0.88 non-penalty expected goals and two attempts against the frame of the goal—supports the likelihood of the hosts scoring at home. Introducing Callum Hudson-Odoi and Omari Hutchinson offers fresh options into the starting lineup as Forest aim to turn their 0.88 non-penalty expected goals into goals.
Conversely, Leeds possess the individual quality and set-piece efficiency to match that tally. Farke’s side generated 0.63 expected goals on target from just 0.75 overall xG in the previous encounter, demonstrating their capacity to maximize limited chances. With Anton Stach proving a constant threat from distance—scoring four direct free-kicks since last season—Leeds have a proven route to goal even if open-play chances remain sparse during mid-match reshuffling.
Naturally, exact scoreline selections remain highly fragile to single moments, such as a late set-piece or an unexpected defensive lapse during squad adjustments. Absences for Leeds including Wilfried Gnonto, Mateo Joseph, and Ilia Gruev could cap their peak scoring output, while Forest’s ongoing midfield adjustment with Ibrahim Sangare and James McAtee limits total match control. Given that three of the last four meetings between these clubs have gone the way of Leeds by single-goal margins, a balanced 1-1 outcome offers a logical meeting point for two evenly matched squads.
Risk Factor: Exact score predictions are fragile to single moments like late set-pieces or defensive lapses.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Yes mean in football betting?
Both teams must score at least once during normal time for a BTTS Yes bet to win.
How does the Correct Score market settle for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
It settles on the exact scoreline after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
Why did Leeds win Saturday's match despite lower overall expected goals?
Leeds had higher shot quality on target and scored via an 88th-minute direct free-kick by Anton Stach.
Does Anton Stach represent a persistent set-piece threat for Leeds?
Yes, Stach has scored five league goals from outside the box since last season, including four direct free-kicks.
What squad changes are expected for Tuesday's EFL Cup tie?
Both teams are expected to rotate players, introducing fresh starters and reducing defensive cohesion.
How has Elliot Anderson's departure impacted Nottingham Forest's midfield?
Forest's midfield is in transition, lacking the control previously provided by Anderson.
