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Can Crystal Palace disrupt Arsenal’s Emirates rhythm to reach the EFL Cup semi-finals? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Moreirense’s last five home games have been high-scoring affairs, and they struggle to defend the air. Tondela’s crossing style and high shot frequency make them likely to score, even if their finishing is inconsistent. Both teams come off wins and will be aggressive in seeking back-to-back victories.
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Moreirense have the higher quality in the final third, specifically with Schettine. While Tondela should score due to the aerial mismatch, their defensive record of 28 goals conceded suggests they won't keep Moreirense out.
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Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Predictions and Best Bets
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Arsenal’s exceptional home record and defensive stability make them clear frontrunners to secure their spot in the semi-finals.
Pricing suggests a controlled Arsenal win is the most probable outcome given their league-leading defensive record.
Arsenal’s defense has conceded just 10 goals in 17 matches, strongly supporting a lower-scoring environment.
- Arsenal’s league defence sets the tone: 10 goals conceded in 17 matches and a 53% clean sheet rate suggest opponents rarely get sustained pressure, shaping how Palace must value every attacking moment.
- Home control has been relentless: Arsenal’s home record of 7 wins and 1 draw from 8, with 20 goals scored and only 3 conceded, points to a side that can squeeze matches into their preferred pattern.
- The possession gap hints at the likely rhythm: Arsenal average 60% possession while Crystal Palace average 42%, suggesting long Arsenal spells on the ball and Palace needing efficiency in transition.
Defensive Reliability: League Goals Conceded
The defensive records showcase a stark contrast in how frequently these London rivals are breached by Premier League opposition.
Conceding only 0.59 goals per match, the hosts have established the most resilient defensive structure in the top flight.
Palace have maintained a top-half standing by conceding 1.12 goals per game, keeping them competitive in most fixtures.
Game Control: Possession and Volume
The statistical profiles suggest a matchup where one side dictates the rhythm while the other looks to strike on the break.
Averaging over 14 shots per game, the hosts use sustained possession to pin opponents back and generate repeated openings.
The visitors are comfortable spending long spells without the ball, focusing on tactical discipline and quick transition opportunities.
The last open seat at the 2025-26 EFL Cup semi-final table is up for grabs at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday evening, with Arsenal and Crystal Palace settling this year’s quarter-final in a proper London derby.
Arsenal have worked their way here by getting past Port Vale and Brighton & Hove Albion, and now they’re one win from joining the final four. Crystal Palace’s route has had a little extra edge to it: they’ve already seen off Millwall and record winners Liverpool in their pursuit of silverware.
It’s also a meeting between the Premier League’s current leaders and a Palace side sitting eighth after 17 matches. Arsenal’s league numbers paint the picture of a team comfortable controlling games and squeezing opponents, while Palace’s season has swung between sharp away days and more awkward afternoons at home. Cup nights, of course, have a habit of ignoring the script — especially when the neighbours come knocking.
What makes this one especially tasty is that both “possible starting lineups” hint at a match where individual match-ups could decide the rhythm: Arsenal’s front line looks built for constant running and rotation, while Palace’s selection suggests a side ready to defend with intensity and then break with purpose. If it becomes a game of territory and patience, Arsenal will fancy their chances. If it becomes a game of chaos and quick turns, Palace will back themselves to make it uncomfortable.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Arsenal’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Kepa; Nichols, Saliba, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly; Eze, Norgaard, Merino; Madueke, Jesus, Martinelli.
Even without pinning rigid numbers on it, the balance is clear. There’s a defined defensive unit in front of Kepa, a midfield trio that looks capable of both work and craft, and a front three with natural directness. The selection of Eze alongside Norgaard and Merino is the kind of trio that can change the feel of Arsenal’s attacking phases: one to knit and glide, one to anchor and organise, one to connect and arrive. Ahead of them, Madueke, Jesus and Martinelli suggests constant movement across the line rather than a fixed target.
Crystal Palace’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Benitez; Richards, Guehi, Canvot; Clyne, Lerma, Wharton, Sosa; Pino, Devenny.
That reads like a side built from the back out, with a compact defensive platform and a midfield line that can cover ground. Lerma and Wharton as a central pair hints at a blend of steel and circulation, while the presence of Clyne and Sosa suggests wide support on both sides. Further forward, Pino is the standout attacking name in the listed XI, with Devenny alongside him in advanced areas.
The broader context from the league table adds weight to the contrast. Arsenal sit first after 17 matches with 31 goals scored and just 10 conceded, while Palace are eighth with 21 scored and 19 conceded. In other words: Arsenal arrive as the division’s tightest defence by the raw goals-against count, while Palace have been solid enough to keep themselves in the top half and dangerous enough to take big scalps in cup competition.
How the Match Could Be Played
The first question is simple: who dictates the tempo?
Arsenal’s Premier League profile leans heavily towards control. Their average possession is 60%, and they take 14.47 shots per match with 4.94 on target. That usually points to a team that can sustain pressure, recycle attacks, and keep the ball in the opponent’s half for long stretches. With a front three like Madueke, Jesus and Martinelli, the threat isn’t only in finishing moves — it’s in how often those moves get started. If Arsenal pin Palace back early, you can imagine a pattern of wave after wave: wide runners pulling defenders out, central combinations trying to open the seam, and quick regains to keep Palace from breathing.
Palace, by contrast, average 42% possession. That doesn’t automatically mean “sit deep and suffer” — but it does suggest they’re comfortable spending long spells without the ball and choosing moments to strike. Their shot volume is lower at 11.65 per match, yet the structure implied by Clyne–Lerma–Wharton–Sosa across midfield points towards a team that can stay connected and then spring forward when the opportunity is right. If Palace can keep their distances tight and force Arsenal to play in front of them, they’ll try to make Arsenal’s possession feel sterile rather than suffocating.
Transitions are where this could get spicy. Arsenal concede just 0.59 goals per match in the league, and their xG against is 0.85 per match, which suggests opponents don’t get many high-quality looks. That matters because Palace’s best route in a lower-possession approach is usually to break quickly into space — but space is a luxury against a side that gives up so few chances. The key for Palace, then, may be not only the counter itself, but the first pass of the counter: can they find Pino early enough to turn Arsenal’s defensive line, or at least force recovery sprints and fouls in awkward zones?
At the other end, Palace concede 1.12 goals per match with an xG against of 1.34. That gap can be read as a side that has had to absorb a fair amount of danger, even if the scorelines haven’t always exploded. Against an Arsenal team averaging 1.70 xG for per match, the defensive organisation has to be sharp from minute one: the spacing between Richards, Guehi and Canvot becomes crucial, as does how quickly the midfield line gets back to protect the edge of the box.
One match-up worth watching is how Palace handle Arsenal’s wide threat. Madueke and Martinelli are natural players for driving at full-backs and winning territory, and if Arsenal can repeatedly isolate a defender, they can force Palace’s midfield to shuffle wider and wider. That’s when central lanes open for runners from midfield, or for Jesus to drop in and create overloads in the half-spaces. For Palace, the counter to that is disciplined doubling and clear triggers: force the ball wide, trap near the touchline, then break through the space left behind.
And then there’s game state. Arsenal’s home form in the league reads like a team that knows how to turn the Emirates into a slow squeeze: 7 wins and 1 draw from 8, scoring 20 and conceding 3 at home. If they score first, they can turn the match into a question of patience for Palace. But if Palace can keep it level deep into the game, the pressure shifts: every Arsenal attack becomes a little more urgent, every Palace break a little more dangerous.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Arsenal’s defensive record stands out straight away. Ten goals conceded in 17 league matches is a simple measure of how rarely opponents get to celebrate, and the 53% clean sheet rate underlines it: more than half the time in the league, they’ve shut the door entirely. That matters here because Palace’s attacking output has been steady rather than explosive — 21 goals in 17 matches, with 1.24 scored per match — so the challenge is not just creating chances, but creating enough chances to beat a defence that usually doesn’t need many saves to win.
Possession numbers support the expected rhythm. Arsenal average 60% possession, Palace 42%. That difference often turns into a match where one team attacks set blocks and the other looks to escape. If Palace want to change that dynamic, they’ll need to win midfield duels early and keep the ball long enough to push Arsenal’s back line away from halfway. Otherwise, it becomes a long evening of clearances and second balls.
The shot figures also hint at where the match could tilt. Arsenal average 14.47 shots per match to Palace’s 11.65. That’s not a gulf, but it’s meaningful: it suggests Arsenal can generate more attempts and, by extension, more sustained attacking time. It’s also worth noting Arsenal’s conversion rate is listed at 13% and Palace’s at 11% — a small edge, but over repeated chances it can add up, especially in a cup tie where one sharp finish can change everything.
Finally, the expected goals numbers point to the same general conclusion. Arsenal’s xG for per match is 1.70 while Palace’s xG against is 1.34, which implies Arsenal should be able to craft decent openings if they move the ball with purpose and avoid getting funnelled into harmless areas. On the flip side, Palace’s xG for is 1.32 against Arsenal’s xG against of 0.85 — and that contrast explains the tactical task for Palace: they have to find ways to raise the quality of their chances, not just the quantity.
Key “Moments” to Watch
There are a few moments that could swing this, even if the broader pattern looks predictable.
One is how Palace cope with Arsenal’s early pressure. Arsenal’s home record shows they’re comfortable starting fast and then controlling the rest. If Palace’s back line and midfield line can survive the first spell without scrambling, they give themselves a platform to grow into the match. If they start getting pinned, the danger isn’t only conceding — it’s losing the ability to play their way out at all.
Another is the battle of the second phase after wide attacks. Arsenal’s likely front three suggests plenty of dribbles, cut-backs and loose balls around the box. Those “nothing moments” — the half-clearance, the ricochet, the ball that drops to the edge — often decide cup ties. Palace will want Lerma and Wharton arriving on time to hoover up those scraps and turn them into counter-attacks; Arsenal will want their midfield to keep Palace boxed in and recycle pressure.
Keep an eye on discipline and stoppages too. Arsenal are listed at 9.76 fouls committed per match and 10.65 fouled against per match, while Palace are at 10.12 fouls committed and 9.94 fouled against. That points towards a game with enough contact to break rhythm and create set-piece moments in wide areas — the kind of situations where one delivery or one poorly-timed challenge can decide the mood.
And then there’s the finishing question. Arsenal score 1.82 goals per match in the league, Palace 1.24. That doesn’t guarantee anything in a one-off, but it does speak to repeatable patterns: Arsenal create and convert more often, Palace have to be more selective and ruthless when their moments arrive.
What could go wrong with this read? Cup football has a way of laughing at control. A single transition, an early mistake, or one moment of brilliance can flip the match from “territory and patience” into something messy and emotional — and once it’s messy, the plans you drew up on a whiteboard don’t get a vote anymore.
Best Bet for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
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Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals
The case for an Arsenal victory coupled with a lower-scoring affair rests on a defensive structure that has become the benchmark for consistency. In 17 league matches, they have conceded only 10 goals—an average of just 0.59 per game. This resilience is amplified at home, where they have secured seven wins from eight matches and allowed only three goals to pass through their back line. When a team maintains a 53% clean sheet rate in a division as competitive as the Premier League, it suggests that opponents require an almost perfect attacking performance to find a breakthrough.
Crystal Palace arrive with a respectable record but face a significant statistical hurdle. While they have been effective enough to reach eighth in the table, their scoring average sits at 1.24 goals per match. Against a defense that gives up an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.85 per game, the opportunities for the visitors are likely to be few and far between. Furthermore, the likely tactical setup for the visitors—featuring a compact midfield with Lerma and Wharton—points toward a plan centered on containment. They will likely attempt to frustrate the hosts by sitting in a mid-to-low block, which naturally tends to keep scorelines from spiraling, even when the dominant side eventually finds a way through.
The hosts’ own attacking output reinforces the likelihood of a controlled win rather than a blowout. They average 1.82 goals per match, and their home scoring average of 2.50 is impressive but often comes from a position of total game control. Given the stakes of a quarter-final and the history of this fixture—notably a 1-0 result in their previous meeting this season—a performance of “professional dominance” is more likely than a high-scoring shootout. By monopolizing 60% of the possession and limiting the visitors to low-quality transitions, the league leaders have the tools to secure their semi-final spot while keeping the total goal count within manageable limits.
What could go wrong The primary risk to this selection is a rapid shift in the match’s emotional temperature. If Crystal Palace were to score an early goal via a transition or a set-piece, it would force the game to open up significantly as the hosts chase an equalizer. Additionally, cup competitions often see late-game “chaos” where tactical discipline fades; if the score is 2-1 or 3-0 late on, a single defensive lapse or a speculative long-range effort could push the total goals over the 3.5 threshold.
Correct score lean: Arsenal 2-0
A 2-0 scoreline aligns perfectly with the tactical reality of both sides. The home team has kept a clean sheet in over half of their league matches and has conceded just three times at the Emirates Stadium all season. Offensively, they possess a 1.70 xG per match, suggesting they are consistently good for two goals against most opposition. Given that the visitors concede an average of 1.12 goals per game and often struggle to generate high-quality chances against elite defenses (averaging just 42% possession), a two-goal cushion for the dominant hosts is the most logical outcome.
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