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Tuesday night at the Emirates Stadium brings a second-leg edge that already feels like it’s crackling: Arsenal lead 3-2 after a wild first meeting at Stamford Bridge. That scoreline leaves Chelsea with a clear job — chase the game — while Mikel Arteta can ask for control, territory, and calm heads at 20:00 UK time.
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Arsenal have won 75% of home games, while Chelsea have scored in 100% of away matches. The Gunners’ 2.33 goals-per-home-game average meets Chelsea’s defensive fragility.
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2-1 is one of Arsenal’s most frequent scorelines (13%). Given Chelsea’s 1.13 goals conceded per game, this outcome aligns with seasonal scoring trends.
Both sides arrive with momentum. Arsenal have just put four past Leeds and have wins over Inter and Kairat, even if the 2-3 defeat to Manchester United shows they’re not untouchable. Chelsea, under Liam Rosenior, roll in on a run of wins including 3-2 vs West Ham and 3-0 at Crystal Palace. The stage is set for another swing-heavy London night.
Team News & Lineups
Arsenal
No confirmed injuries or suspensions have been stated. Arteta is expected to deploy his preferred 4-3-3 shape to maintain defensive stability while providing a platform for creativity.
Probable XI: Arrizabalaga; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié; Zubimendi, Rice; Madueke, Ødegaard, Martinelli; Gyökeres
What it means: With Zubimendi and Rice as the platform, Arsenal can lock the middle and feed Ødegaard early. The wide threats (Madueke, Martinelli) keep Chelsea’s full-backs honest, while Gyökeres gives them a direct punch if the game gets stretched.
Chelsea
No confirmed injuries or suspensions have been stated. Rosenior is likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation that has served them well in their recent winning streak.
Probable XI: Sánchez; James, Chalobah, Fofana, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernández; Neto, Palmer, João Pedro; Delap
What it means: The double pivot (Caicedo–Fernández) is built for balance, but Chelsea will need punch. Palmer between the lines and João Pedro drifting into finishing zones can turn a patient spell into a sharp attack fast.
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Main Tip Analysis: Why Arsenal to Win & BTTS?
Arsenal’s dominance at the Emirates Stadium is the primary driver for this selection. The Gunners win 75% of their home fixtures and maintain an elite 2.33 goals-per-game average in front of their own fans. With Viktor Gyökeres leading the line—who has already netted six times this season—and creative engines like Martin Ødegaard back to full fitness, Arsenal possess multiple avenues to breach the Chelsea defense. The team’s Expected Goals (xG) of 1.73 per match further validates their status as a goal-scoring machine.
However, the “Both Teams to Score” element is heavily supported by Chelsea’s recent resurgence. Liam Rosenior’s side are currently on a prolific streak, scoring at least once in 92% of their matches this season. Crucially, in the League Cup, Chelsea have a 100% record of scoring and conceding in their away fixtures. With João Pedro finding the net in recent wins over West Ham and Crystal Palace, Chelsea are terrible at keeping clean sheets but excellent at finding the net. Arsenal have only kept a clean sheet in 25% of their home Cup games, suggesting that while they should win the match, Chelsea will inevitably breach their defenses.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Premier League 25/26) | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.21 | 1.67 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.92 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.71 | 1.13 |
| Shots per match | 14.88 | 13.42 |
| xG for per match | 1.73 | 1.59 |
| xG against per match | 0.87 | 1.30 |
| Average possession | 58% | 58% |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Arsenal’s identity here is clear: control the game in the opposition’s half, keep the ball moving with short passes, and keep probing with through balls. With Ødegaard pulling strings and Rice driving the tempo, Arsenal can pin Chelsea back and force them into long defending spells.
Set pieces are another lever Arsenal can pull; they are rated very strong at both attacking and defending them. Conversely, Chelsea’s plan leans to possession football, short passes, and attacking through the middle — but the twist is their ability to land big moments: they’re very strong at finishing scoring chances and shooting from direct free kicks, with a strong counter-attacking threat too.
Key Moments & Data Insights
- Late-game chaos potential: Arsenal concede 35% of their goals in the 81’–90’ window, while Chelsea concede 26% in the same period.
- League control vs Risk: Arsenal average 0.71 goals conceded per Premier League match, while Chelsea sit at 1.13 conceded.
- Shots set the tempo: Arsenal average 16.25 shots at home, while Chelsea average 13.42.
- Discipline: Chelsea average 2.71 cards per match, while Arsenal sit at 1.38.
Questions & Answers
What is the aggregate score?
Arsenal lead 3-2 following the first leg at Stamford Bridge.
Who is the top scorer for each team?
Viktor Gyökeres has 6 goals for Arsenal; João Pedro leads Chelsea with 9 goals.
What time is kick-off?
The match starts at 20:00 UK time on February 3, 2026.
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