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Can Metz turn width and set-piece threat into a cup lifeline against Montpellier at Stade Saint-Symphorien? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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West Ham's defense is historically poor, failing to keep a clean sheet in 19 straight games. Tottenham have scored in 9 straight meetings against them. However, Spurs concede 1.27 goals per game and struggle against counters, making a clean sheet for the hosts unlikely despite the expected win.
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West Ham concede an average of 2.04 goals per game, making two Spurs goals the baseline. Tottenham's vulnerability to individual errors and counter-attacks suggests West Ham will snatch one, but the visitors' weak finishing limits a larger comeback.
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Metz vs Montpellier HSC Predictions and Best Bets
Metz vs Montpellier — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Metz’s status as a top-flight side gives them the edge in the pricing, although cup ties often produce tight margins in the 1X2 market.
Implied probabilities suggest a narrow victory for Metz or a competitive scoring draw are the most likely outcomes at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
While cup ties can be cagey, the pricing for 2.5 goals suggests a high likelihood of finding the net at both ends.
- Metz have conceded 38 goals in 18 played games across the listed all-leagues section, an average of 2.11 per match, making clean spells priceless in knockout football.
- Gauthier Hein has 5 Ligue 1 goals and 4 assists, giving Metz their clearest source of end product and the sharpest edge on final-ball moments.
- Montpellier have 118 corners across 20 played games (5.9 per match) while Metz are weak defending set pieces and very weak in aerial duels.
Defensive Metrics: Conceded Averages
A comparison of defensive stability based on average goals conceded per match across the current campaign.
Reflects the pressure of competing against top-tier Ligue 1 attacks where defensive gaps are frequently punished.
Operating in Ligue 2, they have maintained a tighter defensive line but face a significant jump in quality here.
Attacking Volume: Match Intensity
Comparing the volume of shots and total attacks generated per match to illustrate the offensive threat level.
They rely on precise transition play and the individual quality of Gauthier Hein to turn fewer sequences into goals.
A more expansive style in the second tier results in higher activity, though converting this against top-flight defenses is a different task.
Metz and Montpellier go head-to-head at Stade Saint-Symphorien on Sunday with a place in the Coupe de France round of 16 on the line. In a season where league ambitions have been tough going, the cup offers something different: one good night, one clean performance, and suddenly the mood shifts. Both clubs have lifted this trophy twice, but not since the 1980s, so there’s no modern comfort blanket here — just a straight fight to keep the run alive.
Metz arrive with results that have carried a familiar sting. They lost away at Brest (3-2), lost at home to Rennes (1-0), lost at Auxerre (3-1), then lost at home to Paris Saint-Germain (3-2) before drawing 1-1 at Lorient on January 4. Montpellier’s recent list is hardly soothing either: defeats to Reims (2-0), Pau (1-0) and Dunkerque (3-1) with a 1-1 draw at Grenoble in between, plus Coupe de France wins away at Perpignan Canet (1-0) and Montceau Bourgogne (2-0).
That contrast matters. Metz are carrying Ligue 1 edges — the pace, the pressure, the margins — while Montpellier come from Ligue 2 and have already shown they can win away in this competition. This tie sits right on the fault line between the two: one side needing to turn performances into results, the other trying to turn cup efficiency into belief.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Metz’s possible starting XI is Jonathan Fischer in goal behind a back four of Michel Mboula, Sadibou Sané, Maxime Colin and Koffi Kouao. The midfield pairing looks set to be Boubacar Traoré and Jessy Deminguet, with Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Gauthier Hein and Malick Mbaye supporting Ibou Sané up top.
That gives Metz clear width and clear outlets. Their listed style leans on long balls, playing with width, and attacking down the right, while operating in their own half with a non-aggressive approach. With Kouao at right-back and Tsitaishvili on the flank, there’s an obvious right-sided lane to build around, and Hein’s presence as a central creator is hard to ignore: he’s already on 5 Ligue 1 goals and 4 assists, with a high pass completion of 91.5%. In cup football, that’s the kind of player who can turn one half-chance into a proper opening.
Metz also have a set-piece angle baked in. They are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks. That makes Hein, and any teammate capable of winning fouls in range, central to the plan — and it also raises the stakes around discipline, because Metz are weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas.
On the injury list for Metz, J. Mangondo is out with knee problems, Joel Asoro is out with an ankle injury, Pape Sy has concussion, and Fodé Ballo-Touré is listed with an unknown injury.
Montpellier’s possible starting XI has Mathieu Michel in goal, with Enzo Tchato, Julien Laporte, Becir Omeragic and Lucas Mincarelli across the back. The midfield pairing is Pereira and Chennai, with Nicolas Pays, Téji Savanier and Orakpo in support of the striker.
The most important takeaway is the experience threaded through Montpellier’s spine. Laporte and Omeragic have heavy minutes listed, and Savanier is a central figure with 5 goals. Alexandre Mendy is also listed in the squad with 5 goals, while Savanier matches that output. That’s a handy problem to have in a cup tie: more than one route to a goal, more than one player who can finish.
How the Match Could Be Played
This match has a classic cup feel: Metz trying to impose structure and width, Montpellier trying to stay compact and pick their moments. Metz’s identity is shaped by playing in their own half and being non-aggressive. That doesn’t mean passive; it means measured. They’ll likely accept spells without the ball, then try to spring forward down the right and into the spaces behind the full-backs with long balls and early deliveries.
The issue is what happens when Metz actually get into good positions. Their weaknesses are blunt: finishing scoring chances is weak. That’s a problem in any match, but it’s especially awkward in knockout football, where you don’t always get a second spell of dominance. Metz need to make their best moments count, or the night turns into one long grind of “nearly”.
Montpellier’s approach is less clearly described in style terms here, but the structure of their likely XI points to a side comfortable playing through midfield. Pereira and Chennai as a pair suggests a platform, while Pays and Savanier provide the link to the front line. With Orakpo also in that attacking line, Montpellier can threaten with direct running as well as combination play.
Where Metz can hurt them is exactly where Metz can also get hurt. Metz are weak defending against attacks down the wings, weak defending against through ball attacks, and very weak defending against skillful players. That’s a toxic mix if you allow attackers to receive facing forward. It means the job for Traoré and Deminguet is massive: they have to shield the centre-backs, slow counters, and make sure Savanier and company aren’t turning on the half-way line with time to pick passes.
Metz also struggle in the air. Aerial duels are very weak. That shapes how they defend their box and how they attack it. If they’re not winning first contact regularly, they need to win second balls and block shots. It also means set plays against them can become the sort of recurring problem that keeps managers awake — and Metz are weak defending set pieces as well. They can’t afford to concede cheap corners and wide free kicks.
That said, Metz do have one “cheat code” in this tie: direct free kicks at the right range. With a side that’s weak at finishing open-play chances, a dead-ball becomes even more valuable. If Metz can drag Montpellier into clumsy fouls around the area, the balance of the game tilts. It’s not pretty, but cup football has never cared about pretty.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have already shown in this competition that they can do the basics away from home: 1-0 at Perpignan Canet and 2-0 at Montceau Bourgogne. That matters because it means they won’t panic if Metz have the first spell of territory. If the game stays level deep into it, Montpellier’s comfort in away cup ties becomes a quiet advantage.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Metz’s Ligue 1 season has been a struggle on output. They have 18 goals in 17 matches and average 8.9 shots per game, with 49.1% possession and 86.2% pass completion. That combination tells a specific story: Metz can keep the ball moving cleanly when they have it, but they don’t turn that into a high volume of chances. In a cup tie, that means every attack has to be sharper, earlier, and more purposeful.
Individual numbers reinforce it. Hein’s 5 goals and 4 assists make him the standout contributor, while Habib Diallo has 3 goals and 1 assist. Tsitaishvili has chipped in with 2 goals, and Sadibou Sané has 2 from centre-back — which underlines the point about set pieces and moments, because when a defender is among your top scorers, goals are arriving from a mix of situations rather than constant open-play supply.
Metz’s defensive numbers are the bigger concern in the “all leagues” snapshot: 38 conceded across 18 played games, an average of 2.11 conceded per match. Conceding that often means you’re constantly chasing a clean spell. It also makes knockout football feel like a tightrope, because one wobble can become two goals quickly.
Montpellier’s “all leagues” line looks more stable: 22 scored and 19 conceded across 20 played games, a 0.95 conceded per match figure that sits far closer to what you’d associate with a cup run. They also take more shots in that same section, averaging 11.7 per game compared to Metz’s 9.22. That extra shot volume matters because it creates more chances for rebounds, deflections, and second phases — the messy goals that decide cup ties.
Even the territory numbers lean Montpellier’s way. They average 92.85 total attacks per match compared to Metz’s 77.61, and 40.7 dangerous attacks per match compared to Metz’s 34.72. That means Montpellier spend more time building sequences that end in threatening areas, and if Metz’s defensive weaknesses are triggered repeatedly, the pressure escalates.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment is the discipline battle around the box. Metz are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks, but they are also weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. That two-way street can decide the tone: Metz will want free kicks at one end and must avoid gifting them at the other. If the whistle starts to dominate, the match becomes a set-piece contest rather than a flowing one.
The second is the right flank. Metz attack down the right and play with width, so expect a steady diet of forward movement in that channel. If Kouao and Tsitaishvili can lock the ball in Montpellier’s half, Metz get the sort of territorial platform they crave. If Montpellier escape that press and find space behind the full-back, Metz’s weakness against through balls and skillful players becomes a live issue.
Third, watch what happens after Metz create a clear opening. Their finishing is weak. That means a missed chance isn’t just a missed chance; it becomes a psychological swing, and cup football loves a mood swing.
Finally, keep an eye on set pieces into Metz’s area. Metz are weak defending set pieces and very weak in aerial duels. If Montpellier start winning corners and wide free kicks, Metz’s box defending will be under constant stress.
What could go wrong with this read? Cup ties don’t always follow the script of season-long patterns. One early goal can flip the entire tactical picture, forcing a “non-aggressive” side to chase, or allowing an away team to sit deeper than normal. Fine margins, one moment of quality, one mistake — and suddenly the match becomes something else entirely.
Best Bet for Metz vs Montpellier
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Metz to win
Metz enter this Coupe de France clash with the distinct advantage of playing at a higher competitive level in Ligue 1. While their recent results have been challenging, including a narrow 3-2 loss to Paris Saint-Germain and a recent 1-1 draw with Lorient, they have been hardened by the superior pace and tactical pressure of the top flight. In contrast, Montpellier are operating in Ligue 2 and have struggled for consistency even at that level, recently suffering a 3-1 defeat to Dunkerque and a 1-0 loss to Pau.
The tactical matchup heavily favors the home side’s creative engine. Gauthier Hein has been a standout performer with 5 goals and 4 assists, maintaining an elite pass completion rate of 91.5%. His ability to dictate play from a central position provides a level of service that Montpellier’s defense, which has conceded nearly a goal per game in a lower division, will find difficult to contain. Metz also possess a significant threat from direct free kicks, a strength that becomes even more lethal against a Montpellier side that must avoid fouling in dangerous areas to stay in the game.
The physical and territorial metrics further support a home victory. Montpellier allow a high volume of shots, averaging 11.7 against them, and their defensive fragility is exposed by Metz’s efficient right-sided attacks led by Koffi Kouao and Heorhii Tsitaishvili. Furthermore, Metz have shown they can compete in high-scoring affairs, recently pushing elite teams like Brest and PSG to 3-2 scorelines. This offensive capability, combined with the home advantage at Stade Saint-Symphorien, positions them to overwhelm a visitor that has failed to win three of their last four league matches. While the visitors have found some success in earlier cup rounds against lower-tier opposition like Perpignan Canet, the jump in quality to face a Ligue 1 outfit away from home represents a significantly steeper challenge that they are currently ill-equipped to meet.
What could go wrong Metz have notable defensive lapses, having conceded an average of 2.11 goals per match. If their weakness in aerial duels and defending set pieces is exploited by experienced figures like Téji Savanier, Montpellier could snatch a lead and retreat into a compact defensive block. Additionally, Metz’s struggles with finishing open-play chances could keep the visitors in the game longer than the tactical flow suggests.
Correct score lean
Metz 2-1 Montpellier
This scoreline reflects Metz’s superior offensive output and home advantage while acknowledging their recurring defensive vulnerabilities. Metz have shown a consistent ability to find the net, as seen in their recent multi-goal performances against PSG and Brest, yet they have kept a clean sheet in only 19% of their matches. Montpellier possess enough quality through Savanier and Alexandre Mendy to exploit Metz’s weak aerial defense once, but they lack the defensive depth to withstand sustained pressure from Gauthier Hein and the Metz flanks over 90 minutes.
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