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Nottingham Forest vs Vitoria de Guimaraes Preview: Glasner’s New System Faces Its Strongest Test Yet. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Nottingham Forest’s new 3-4-1-2 system with aggressive wing-backs leaves defensive gaps, while Vitoria’s superior match fitness and attacking quality from Samu, Ndoye, and Camara increase the likelihood of goals for both sides in this extended 120-minute friendly.
Forest’s attacking depth, led by Gibbs-White, Jesus, and Kalimuendo, should break down Vitoria’s defence twice, while Vitoria’s match sharpness and penalty-area presence suggest they will score once, making a 2-1 result the most realistic outcome.
Nottingham Forest continue their preparations for the 2026-27 Premier League season on Sunday when they face Vitoria de Guimaraes at the Estadio de Nora.
Nottingham Forest vs Vitoria de Guimaraes — bet365 Market Snapshot
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Nottingham Forest’s early pre-season wins contrast with Vitoria’s unbeaten four-match summer run, setting up a balanced contest.
Forest’s attacking system creates width but leaves defensive spaces, while Vitoria’s sharpness boosts goal chances.
Forest’s superior attacking talent and Vitoria’s consistent penalty area presence suggest a narrow 2-1 scoreline.
Forest’s midfielders Dominguez and Yates are crucial for disrupting Vitoria’s build-up play.
Three Punchy Stats
- Forest have scored five goals without conceding across their first two matches under Glasner, giving the new manager a perfect pre-season record so far.
- Vitoria have won all four of their summer friendlies, scoring 13 goals and conceding only two.
- The Portuguese side created just 54 big chances last season despite recording 712 touches inside opposition penalty areas, highlighting the gap between reaching dangerous zones and producing high-quality opportunities.
Attacking Efficiency Comparison
Forest’s attacking adaptation contrasts with Vitoria’s sharp pre-season scoring.
Nottingham Forest’s attacking output gives Vitoria de Guimaraes a clear tactical problem to solve.
Vitoria de Guimaraes can trouble Nottingham Forest by turning promising attacks into cleaner final actions.
Defensive Solidity Comparison
Nottingham Forest and Vitoria de Guimaraes show similar defensive weaknesses under pressure.
Nottingham Forest’s defensive shape will be tested whenever Vitoria de Guimaraes increase the tempo.
Vitoria de Guimaraes must match Nottingham Forest’s discipline and avoid conceding cheap openings.
The behind-closed-doors friendly forms part of Forest’s 12-day training camp in Portugal and sits between their victory over Blackburn Rovers and an upcoming meeting with Sporting Lisbon. For Oliver Glasner, the match represents another opportunity to develop fitness, tactical understanding and squad cohesion before the Premier League opener against Leeds United on 22 August.
Vitoria are operating on a much tighter schedule. Their domestic campaign begins against Arouca on 8 August, meaning Tiago Margarido’s players are further advanced in their preparations. With four pre-season victories already secured, the Portuguese side should provide Forest with their most demanding examination of the summer so far.
Forest Making a Positive Start Under Glasner
Forest could hardly have asked for cleaner results from their opening two pre-season fixtures.
A 2-0 victory over Notts County was followed by a 3-0 success against Blackburn, giving Glasner two wins, five goals and two clean sheets at the beginning of his reign. Results are not the central purpose of pre-season, but winning while introducing a new tactical structure is considerably more pleasant than losing while telling everyone that “fitness is the priority”.
Igor Jesus has been particularly sharp. He scored against Notts County and found the net again against Blackburn, while Arnaud Kalimuendo also struck in both fixtures. Taiwo Awoniyi added his first pre-season goal in the Blackburn victory, giving Glasner several encouraging options in the final third.
The attacking signs are promising because Forest are adapting to a different shape. Glasner has begun implementing a back-three system supported by aggressive wing-backs, with Neco Williams operating much higher up the pitch than he did for most of last season.
That structure can give Forest greater width and allow additional players to occupy central attacking positions. However, it also requires precise coordination. When a wing-back advances, the nearest centre-back and central midfielder must recognise the danger of a turnover immediately. One delayed reaction can turn an adventurous attacking shape into a rather alarming foot race towards Forest’s own goal.
Blackburn created several promising early openings in the previous friendly, suggesting that the defensive mechanics remain a work in progress. That is understandable. New systems rarely arrive fully assembled, especially when several important players are absent and the squad is still building physical sharpness.
An Unusual Format With a Clear Purpose
The friendly will be played over two 60-minute halves, allowing Glasner to increase the workload without treating the occasion like a standard competitive match.
The extended format should offer more opportunities for substitutions, positional experiments and tactical corrections. It also reduces the importance of drawing sweeping conclusions from the final score. A match lasting 120 minutes, featuring numerous changes and played behind closed doors is not exactly a traditional Premier League rehearsal.
Even so, the fixture should reveal whether Forest can maintain their intensity for longer periods. Pressing, recovery runs and wing-back movement become much more difficult once fatigue sets in. The additional half-hour could therefore be more informative than the opening stages, particularly for players attempting to convince Glasner that they can function effectively within his system.
Forest still have a demanding schedule ahead. After Vitoria, they are due to face Sporting Lisbon, Udinese, Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen and Brest before meeting Leeds. The level of opposition will rise sharply, so this match provides a useful bridge between the early fitness-building fixtures and the tougher tactical challenges to come.
Vitoria Arrive With Momentum and Greater Match Sharpness
Vitoria have won all four of their pre-season matches.
They began with a 3-1 success against Felgueiras before defeating Penafiel 5-0 and Academica 2-0 on 18 July. Margarido’s side then recorded another 3-1 victory over Al-Ahli on Friday.
The circumstances surrounding the Penafiel and Academica matches were particularly unusual. Vitoria played twice on the same day, beating Penafiel in a contest divided into three 30-minute periods before overcoming Academica despite the accumulated fatigue.
Joao Mendes, Alioune Ndoye, Oumar Camara and Beni scored against Penafiel, with an own goal completing the five-goal total. Those victories demonstrated the depth of Margarido’s squad and suggested that his players are responding positively to the physical demands of pre-season.
This match concludes Vitoria’s Algarve training camp, which has run from 20 to 26 July. Facing Forest should provide a significant step up in quality and intensity, but the Portuguese side may benefit from being closer to the beginning of their competitive schedule.
Vitoria open their league season against Arouca on 8 August, two weeks before Forest begin against Leeds. That difference matters. Vitoria should be nearer to full match rhythm, while Forest remain in the earlier stages of conditioning and tactical development.
Last Season’s Numbers Highlight Vitoria’s Main Challenge
Vitoria finished ninth in the Primeira Liga last season with 42 points. Their underlying return of 44 expected points was close to their actual total, indicating that their final position broadly reflected their performances.
Their home record was stronger than their overall standing. Vitoria collected 28 points from 17 home matches, winning eight, drawing four and losing five. More than half of their total points came on their own ground, although this fixture will take place at the neutral Estadio de Nora rather than their usual home venue.
The main limitation was attacking production.
Vitoria generated 40.7 expected goals but created only 54 big chances, the second-lowest total in the division. They averaged 3.9 shots on target per match and converted 8.6% of their attempts.
However, their 712 touches inside the opposition penalty area ranked eighth. That contrast is important. Vitoria reached advanced areas reasonably often but did not consistently transform those positions into clear chances.
Their strong pre-season scoring record suggests improvement around the box, although Forest will represent a more substantial defensive challenge than their earlier opponents. Margarido will want his attacking players to show that the recent goals are evidence of developing efficiency rather than simply the product of friendly opposition.
Neco Williams Could Become Central to Forest’s Approach
Neco Williams is one of the most interesting players in Glasner’s developing system.
Williams operated as a wing-back against Blackburn, receiving greater freedom to push forward and provide width. He started 36 of his 37 appearances last season, generally playing at left-back, and contributed two goals and three assists.
His attacking numbers underline why the new role could suit him. Williams attempted 46 shots, with 19 hitting the target. Those figures demonstrate a willingness to enter dangerous areas and take responsibility in the final third.
As a wing-back, he can begin from a higher position, combine with Morgan Gibbs-White and attack the space outside Forest’s forwards. However, the role also carries major defensive responsibilities. Williams must recognise when to press, when to recover and when to remain deeper to preserve the structure.
Glasner’s system will not work if both wing-backs charge forward without protection. It may look exciting for a few seconds, but so does leaving the front door open during a storm.
Vitoria could deliberately attack the spaces behind Forest’s wing-backs. Oumar Camara, Joao Mendes or Alioune Ndoye may look to move quickly into those channels whenever possession changes hands.
Samu and Ndoye Offer Vitoria a Clear Attacking Focus
Samu should occupy a central creative role for Vitoria after an excellent individual campaign.
The 29-year-old captain scored nine goals and supplied five assists during the 2025-26 season. His output makes him an obvious focal point, both as a creator between the lines and as a player capable of arriving in scoring positions.
Alioune Ndoye should also feature in the final third. He scored five goals in 29 appearances last season and has already found the net during pre-season. His movement against Forest’s back three could be crucial, especially if he can isolate a centre-back after drawing one of the wing-backs out of position.
Camara provides another important threat. He scored against Penafiel and is expected to form part of a strong Vitoria attack.
Forest’s defenders will need to communicate constantly. A back three can provide numerical security, but only when distances remain compact. If the outside centre-backs are dragged too far towards the touchline, Vitoria may find space around Samu in central areas.
Schlager’s Arrival Adds Midfield Competition
Xaver Schlager is Forest’s only summer signing so far, arriving on a free transfer from RB Leipzig.
Glasner knows the experienced midfielder from their time together at Wolfsburg, which should help him understand the manager’s tactical expectations. However, Schlager started all four of Austria’s World Cup matches and may not be involved at this stage despite linking up with his new teammates.
Chris Wood, Ibrahim Sangare and Dan Ndoye also remain unavailable following their World Cup involvement.
The absences create opportunities for Nicolas Dominguez, Ryan Yates and James McAtee. Forest’s midfield will be essential to maintaining balance behind the wing-backs and supporting Gibbs-White in advanced areas.
Forest have also experienced considerable squad turnover. Elliot Anderson completed a £135 million move to Manchester City, while David Carmo, Jota Silva, Angus Gunn, Stefan Ortega, Willy Boly and Lorenzo Lucca have also departed through transfers, loans, contract expiry or the conclusion of temporary agreements.
Anderson’s exit is particularly significant. Replacing his midfield influence will require more than a simple change of name on the team sheet.
Tactical Battle Could Decide the Tone
Forest are expected to use a 3-4-1-2 formation, with Matz Sels behind Matheus Cunha, Nikola Milenkovic and Morato. Ola Aina and Williams should provide the width, while Dominguez and Yates protect the centre.
McAtee and Gibbs-White could operate around Jesus, although frequent substitutions are inevitable during a 120-minute friendly.
Vitoria may line up in a 4-3-3, with a midfield built around Rocha, R Silva, G Silva or Santiago Verdi and a forward line featuring Mendes, Camara and Ndoye.
The tactical contest should revolve around Forest’s wing-backs. When Aina and Williams advance, Forest can create overloads and pin Vitoria’s wide players back. When possession is lost, however, the Portuguese side will look to counter into the vacated spaces.
Vitoria’s midfield must also decide how aggressively to follow Gibbs-White. Allowing him time between the lines would give Forest a route into the penalty area, but stepping forward to pressure him could leave Jesus isolated against the central defenders.
A Valuable Test Rather Than a Finished Product
Forest enter the match with confidence, goals and growing enthusiasm around Glasner’s early work. Vitoria arrive with even more pre-season football behind them and a perfect record of their own.
The result will attract attention, but the more meaningful questions concern structure and progress. Can Forest protect the spaces behind their wing-backs? Can Williams continue to provide an attacking threat from his new role? Can Jesus maintain his scoring run? Can Vitoria turn their promising penalty-area occupation into clear chances against stronger opposition?
Neither side should resemble the finished version of itself. That is normal in July. Pre-season is football’s annual period of tactical optimism, heavy legs and supporters pretending not to care about results until their team concedes.
For Glasner, this is another step in a substantial rebuilding process. For Margarido, it is the strongest test of an impressive summer. With both teams carrying attacking momentum and adjusting defensively, the meeting at the Estadio de Nora should provide a useful measure of how far each side has progressed.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Both teams must score at least once during normal time. The match winner does not matter; the selection is settled only by whether each side finds the net.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Nottingham Forest vs Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
📊 Pick 1: Both Teams To Score YES @ 4/5
Nottingham Forest have begun their pre-season campaign under Oliver Glasner with five goals scored across two victories, showing sharp attacking movement from Igor Jesus and Arnaud Kalimuendo. However, Glasner is actively embedding a new 3-4-1-2 system that relies on aggressive wing-backs pushing high up the pitch. Operating Neco Williams in an advanced role creates natural width, but it leaves space behind the defensive line during transitions. Blackburn Rovers created several early openings in Forest’s previous outing, demonstrating that defensive coordination remains a work in progress while players adapt to recovery runs.
Vitoria de Guimaraes enter this fixture with superior match fitness, having won all four of their pre-season matches while scoring 13 goals. With their domestic campaign starting on 8 August against Arouca, Tiago Margarido’s side are further along in physical preparation. Creative captain Samu, who recorded nine goals and five assists last season, alongside forwards Alioune Ndoye and Oumar Camara, provide sufficient quality to capitalize on defensive transitions. Played over two 60-minute halves, the extended 120-minute format will test physical conditioning, increasing the likelihood of errors and goalscoring chances for both teams across the match.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Forest adapt to a 3-4-1-2 formation with aggressive wing-backs leaving wide recovery channels open.
- Vitoria have scored 13 goals across four consecutive summer victories with advanced match conditioning.
- An extended 120-minute match duration increases physical fatigue and late defensive errors across both halves.
Risk Factor: Forest’s back three recorded clean sheets early in pre-season, but defensive coordination remains incomplete amid tactical changes.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Glasner's aggressive 3-4-1-2 shape pushes Neco Williams high, leaving recovery space open when possession is turned over.
Four summer wins and 13 goals scored. Samu, Ndoye, and Camara possess superior match rhythm to exploit wide channels.
🎯 Pick 2: Nottingham Forest vs Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 @ 15/2
A 2-1 scoreline in favour of Nottingham Forest aligns with the individual talent disparity and tactical dynamics between both clubs. Forest possess superior attacking depth in central areas, led by Morgan Gibbs-White and supported by red-hot frontmen Igor Jesus and Arnaud Kalimuendo. Both forwards have found the net in consecutive pre-season wins against Notts County and Blackburn Rovers. Despite missing key players such as Chris Wood, Ibrahim Sangare, and Dan Ndoye due to World Cup involvement, Forest’s attacking framework generates sufficient high-value openings to break down Vitoria’s four-man defence twice across 120 minutes.
Vitoria’s competitive fitness allows them to breach Forest’s back line once. Last season, Vitoria recorded 712 touches inside opposition penalty areas, showing consistent entry into dangerous zones. However, they produced just 54 big chances across the entire campaign, pointing to difficulties in converting penalty-box possession into clear-cut scoring opportunities. While Margarido’s side have scored 13 goals in four summer friendlies, facing a Premier League back line of Nikola Milenkovic, Morato, and Matheus Cunha presents a steeper test. Forest’s higher individual quality should secure a narrow victory while Vitoria’s match sharpness guarantees a competitive contest.
Risk Factor: High substitution rates and extended match time may cause late tactical lapses affecting goal outcomes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market mean?
The Both Teams To Score market requires both Nottingham Forest and Vitoria de Guimaraes to score at least one goal for the bet to win.
How does the Correct Score market work in football betting?
The Correct Score market requires predicting the exact final scoreline at full-time, with higher odds due to lower probability.
How does the 120-minute format affect pre-season betting?
The extended two 60-minute halves increase playing time, leading to greater fatigue and more scoring opportunities.
Why are Nottingham Forest adapting to a new tactical formation?
Manager Oliver Glasner is introducing a 3-4-1-2 shape with high wing-backs to build width and central attacking options ahead of the Premier League opener.
How does Vitoria de Guimaraes' pre-season form impact performance?
Vitoria’s four straight pre-season wins give them superior match sharpness and confidence ahead of their earlier league start.
Which Nottingham Forest players are currently scoring goals?
Igor Jesus and Arnaud Kalimuendo have both scored in consecutive pre-season friendlies, with Taiwo Awoniyi also scoring recently.
How do key player absences affect Nottingham Forest's midfield?
With key players unavailable post-World Cup, Nicolas Dominguez and Ryan Yates have expanded roles to maintain midfield stability.
What are the main risks when betting on pre-season friendly fixtures?
High substitution volumes, tactical experiments, and variable fitness levels cause erratic late game-state shifts in friendlies.
