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Liverpool vs Sunderland: Iraola’s New Era Faces an Immediate Test in Nashville. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Liverpool’s attacking intent is clear from their 5-1 pre-season win and 1.59 home expected goals last season, but defensive absences weaken their backline. Sunderland’s confident attack, highlighted by a 5-1 win and Enzo Le Fee’s form, makes both teams scoring a plausible outcome in this fixture.
Liverpool’s strong historical record and 1.59 expected home goals combine with Sunderland’s 1.62 expected goals conceded and attacking efficiency to suggest a narrow 2-1 Liverpool win reflecting both teams’ scoring capabilities.
Liverpool begin life under Andoni Iraola with a demanding pre-season meeting against Sunderland at GEODIS Park in Nashville on Saturday night.
Liverpool vs Sunderland — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Liverpool’s ability to create chances contrasts with Sunderland’s defensive vulnerabilities, shaping the likely outcome.
Liverpool’s high expected goals and Sunderland’s efficient attack suggest a lively scoring game.
Liverpool’s scoring ability and Sunderland’s defensive concessions make 2-1 a plausible final score.
Liverpool’s aggressive press faces Sunderland’s creative crossing and midfield threat.
Three Punchy Stats
- Liverpool suffered 20 defeats during 2025-26, their highest total in a single season this century.
- Sunderland scored five goals in their opening pre-season friendly, with Enzo Le Fee contributing twice in the 5-1 victory over York City.
- Liverpool have lost only one of the previous 17 meetings between the clubs, recording nine wins and seven draws.
Attacking Efficiency Contrast
Liverpool’s home scoring power versus Sunderland’s attacking sharpness
Liverpool’s attacking output gives Sunderland a clear tactical problem to solve.
Sunderland can trouble Liverpool by turning promising attacks into cleaner final actions.
Defensive Stability Comparison
Liverpool’s defensive reshuffle versus Sunderland’s goals conceded challenges
Liverpool’s backline adjustments may expose vulnerabilities against Sunderland’s attack.
Sunderland must match Liverpool’s discipline and avoid conceding cheap openings.
Kick-off is scheduled for 5pm local time and 11pm BST, but the significance of the occasion extends beyond the result. Liverpool are attempting to install a more intense playing identity after a deeply disappointing campaign, while Sunderland are preparing to prove that their remarkable first season back in the Premier League was the beginning of something sustainable rather than a glorious one-off.
Both managers are working with incomplete squads following the World Cup, and extensive changes are likely during the game. That may reduce the value of the final score, but it should make the tactical details even more revealing.
For Iraola, every press, recovery run and positional rotation will offer an early indication of how quickly Liverpool’s players are absorbing his methods. For Regis Le Bris, the challenge is to maintain Sunderland’s competitive edge while carefully rebuilding fitness during a packed 12-day tour of the United States.
A Liverpool Reset After a Painful Campaign
Liverpool’s 2025-26 season was not merely disappointing. It was an alarming collapse from the standards expected at the club.
After failing to defend their Premier League title, the Reds finished fifth with 60 points and ended the campaign without a trophy. They also suffered 20 defeats across the season, their highest total in a single campaign this century.
That record ultimately cost Arne Slot his position, despite his title success a year earlier.
Iraola therefore arrives with an unusual assignment. He is not rebuilding a side devoid of quality; he is attempting to restore intensity, consistency and emotional control to a team that continued to produce respectable underlying numbers.
Liverpool averaged 1.59 expected goals per home league game last season and conceded chances worth an average of 1.29 expected goals. Expected goals, commonly shortened to xG, estimates the quality of scoring opportunities rather than simply counting shots. Those figures suggest Liverpool were still capable of creating dangerous situations, even when performances and results became unreliable.
The problem was turning promising phases into complete performances.
Iraola’s style is associated with physical commitment, aggressive pressing and a willingness to make matches uncomfortable for the opposition. Comparisons with Jurgen Klopp are inevitable, although recreating an entire era after a few training sessions would be a slightly ambitious Saturday evening project.
The first objective will be more modest: establishing visible principles.
Liverpool should look to press quickly after losing possession, keep their attacking units close together and prevent Sunderland from playing comfortably through midfield. The distances between the defensive line, central midfielders and forwards will be particularly important. If those gaps become too large, Sunderland will have room to escape pressure and attack Liverpool’s rearranged defence.
Iraola Must Improvise With a Heavily Reduced Squad
Liverpool’s team in Nashville will look very different from the strongest side Iraola could eventually select.
Virgil van Dijk, Alisson Becker and Cody Gakpo are working separately at the AXA Training Centre. Alexis Mac Allister and Victor Munoz have received extended breaks after reaching the World Cup final, while Ryan Gravenberch, Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz are expected to join the travelling group later.
The injury list creates further complications. Conor Bradley is sidelined after knee surgery, Hugo Ekitike is recovering from a ruptured Achilles, and Giovanni Leoni remains in rehabilitation following an ACL injury. Wataru Endo has also been recovering from an ankle problem, while Stefan Bajcetic is expected to return only to partial training during the tour.
This is not Iraola’s finished Liverpool. It is closer to an early tactical laboratory.
Giorgi Mamardashvili could start in goal, with Joe Gomez providing experience in a back line that may also include Jeremy Jacquet, Milos Kerkez, Calvin Ramsay or Jeremie Frimpong. The precise structure remains uncertain, but the defensive unit will need to communicate clearly against a Sunderland side arriving with confidence in the final third.
Liverpool’s younger players should receive meaningful opportunities. Rio Ngumoha, Trey Nyoni, Will Wright and Morrison are among those who could be involved, while Harvey Elliott, Curtis Jones and Dominik Szoboszlai may be asked to provide creativity and leadership.
The potential presence of an 18-year-old striker in Wright immediately changes Liverpool’s attacking challenge. Rather than expecting polished combinations from an established front line, Iraola may focus on movement, counter-pressing and the speed with which players support the centre-forward.
Ngumoha could be especially interesting. In a pressing system, a wide attacker must do far more than dribble at defenders. He must recognise when to close the full-back, when to block a passing lane and when to narrow his position to help trap the ball centrally.
Pre-season can be forgiving about misplaced passes. It is less forgiving about a player standing in the wrong place while his manager is trying to install a new system.
Sunderland Arrive With Momentum and Confidence
Sunderland’s preparations began with an emphatic 5-1 victory over York City on July 18.
Enzo Le Fee scored twice, while Chris Rigg, Timur Tutierov and Tom Proctor also found the net. Le Bris used 23 players and changed his entire team at half-time, underlining that fitness development remains a central priority.
The only significant negative was an injury sustained by Leo Hjelde during the second half.
That victory followed an exceptional Premier League campaign. Sunderland returned to the top flight after eight years away and finished seventh with 54 points, securing Europa League football for 2026-27.
Their league position was impressive, but their underlying numbers tell a more complicated story. Sunderland averaged 1.08 xG and 1.62 xGA per home match. Expected goals against, or xGA, measures the quality of opportunities conceded.
A higher xGA than xG suggests Sunderland often had to survive difficult periods rather than dominate territory. Their success depended on resilience, organisation and taking chances efficiently.
That does not diminish their achievement. In some ways, it makes it more impressive. Sunderland repeatedly found ways to remain competitive even when opponents created the better opportunities.
The controversial conclusion is that a seventh-place finish did not automatically make them the seventh-best controlling team in the division. It did, however, make them one of the most effective.
Enzo Le Fee Can Set Sunderland’s Attacking Rhythm
Le Fee enters this fixture in encouraging form after his two goals against York.
He also contributed five goals and six assists last season while starting 33 league matches. His total of 98 crosses illustrates how frequently Sunderland used him to deliver the ball into dangerous areas.
Against Liverpool, his influence may be more varied.
If he starts centrally or drifts inside from a wider position, he can help Sunderland play around the first wave of pressure. If Liverpool’s young forwards press too aggressively without support behind them, Le Fee could find pockets between the lines and release runners into the space around an unfamiliar defence.
Sunderland may also look to use Chris Rigg’s energy alongside Alan Browne, with Tutierov offering another progressive option. Wilson Isidor is not included among the suggested starters, leaving Simon Ogunsuyi as a possible focal point in attack.
The likely approach will not require Sunderland to dominate possession. Le Bris can instead ask his side to remain compact, invite Liverpool forward and attack the spaces left behind their press.
That could produce an open contest, particularly once substitutions begin to disrupt both teams’ organisation.
Absences Give Sunderland Their Own Selection Puzzle
Like Liverpool, Sunderland are missing important figures.
Granit Xhaka, Chemsdine Talbi, Omar Alderete and Thomas Meunier are unavailable after progressing to the latter stages of the World Cup. Brian Brobbey, Nilson Angulo, Habib Diarra, Robin Roefs, Simon Adingra, Arthur Masuaku and Noah Sadiki are not due to join the squad in the United States until July 26.
Jocelin Ta Bi was denied a visa to enter the country, although Sunderland have appealed the decision.
Those absences mean Le Bris must balance preparation with protection. He has already emphasised the need to rebuild players gradually rather than rush them after their international commitments.
Sunderland still have enough structure to make this a serious examination. Nordi Mukiele, Luke O’Nien, Trai Hume and Reinildo could form an experienced defensive unit, while Rigg, Browne, Le Fee and Tutierov offer energy and technical quality further forward.
They also possess the confidence of a team that scored five times in its opening friendly. Liverpool reportedly did the same against Swindon in Iraola’s first game, so neither attack should arrive feeling shy.
The defenders may wish to bring comfortable footwear. They could spend much of the evening running backwards.
Where the Match Could Be Decided
The most revealing battle should occur when Liverpool attempt to regain possession.
Iraola will want immediate pressure around the ball. The nearest player must engage, supporting players must close nearby passing options, and the defensive line must move forward to compress the pitch.
If Liverpool execute that sequence together, Sunderland could be forced into hurried clearances. If one part of the press arrives late, Le Fee and Rigg may have the technical ability to play through it.
Liverpool’s midfield selection will therefore matter enormously. A combination involving Jones, Szoboszlai and Nyoni would offer mobility and attacking ambition, but it would also require positional discipline. The deepest midfielder cannot chase every movement, particularly when the defence is missing several senior figures.
Sunderland’s own defensive organisation will be tested by Liverpool’s rotations. Elliott and Szoboszlai can move between central and wider areas, while Ngumoha may attempt to isolate defenders in one-against-one situations.
The Black Cats must decide when to follow those movements and when to pass responsibility to a teammate. Overcommitting could create channels for Liverpool’s runners. Remaining too passive could allow Iraola’s side to settle around the penalty area.
Set pieces may also provide useful information. With so many absent players and unfamiliar defensive combinations, marking responsibilities could become confused. Friendlies are supposed to be relaxed occasions, right up until somebody loses their runner at a corner and the manager starts drawing furious shapes in the air.
A Friendly Result, but a Serious Examination
Liverpool and Sunderland shared a 1-1 draw at Anfield last season before the Reds won 1-0 at the Stadium of Light through Van Dijk’s second-half goal.
Those matches demonstrated Sunderland’s ability to frustrate Liverpool, but this meeting comes under very different conditions. Both teams are missing senior players, both managers are likely to make wholesale substitutions, and Liverpool are only beginning to absorb Iraola’s tactical demands.
That makes the contest difficult to judge through the scoreline alone.
For Liverpool, progress may be visible in the aggression of their press, the compactness of their shape and the confidence of their younger players. For Sunderland, success will involve sustaining the organisation that defined their league campaign while sharpening the attacking combinations seen against York.
Emotions will still run high. Liverpool supporters want evidence that last season’s decline is being confronted rather than politely forgotten. Sunderland’s travelling party will want to show that seventh place was no accident.
It is only pre-season, the traditional time for exaggerated optimism, unnecessary panic and supporters deciding a teenager is destined for greatness after one successful turn near the halfway line.
Yet this fixture genuinely matters as a first public step. Iraola must begin rebuilding Liverpool’s identity, while Le Bris must prepare Sunderland for the demands of domestic and European football.
The result may fade quickly. The tactical clues should last much longer.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Both teams must score at least once during normal time. The match winner does not matter; the selection is settled only by whether each side finds the net.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Liverpool vs Sunderland 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Both Teams To Score YES @ 4/5
Andoni Iraola begins his Liverpool tenure at GEODIS Park with a squad undergoing significant tactical restructuring alongside major personnel absences. Liverpool averaged 1.59 expected goals per home league game last season while conceding chances worth 1.29 expected goals. Furthermore, Liverpool opened their pre-season campaign with a 5-1 victory against Swindon, demonstrating immediate attacking intent under Iraola’s high-pressing system. However, senior defensive figures Virgil van Dijk and Alisson Becker are training separately at the AXA Training Centre, whilst Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni remain sidelined through injury. An unfamiliar defensive structure featuring Giorgi Mamardashvili, Joe Gomez, and Milos Kerkez will face a stern test against a confident Sunderland attack.
Sunderland arrive in Nashville having secured a convincing 5-1 victory over York City in their opening pre-season match. Enzo Le Fee scored twice in that fixture, adding to a campaign where he registered five goals, six assists, and 98 crosses during Sunderland’s seventh-place Premier League finish. Regis Le Bris possesses dynamic options in Chris Rigg, Alan Browne, and Timur Tutierov to exploit any late arrivals in Liverpool’s counter-press. While Sunderland surrendered 1.62 expected goals against per home match last season, their ability to take opportunities efficiently makes them constant goal threats. With both sides missing key defensive starters and deploying rearranged lines, both teams finding the net represents a highly plausible scenario in Nashville.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Liverpool recorded a 5-1 win against Swindon in Iraola's opening friendly and averaged 1.59 expected goals per home game last season.
- Key defensive starters Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk are absent, leaving Liverpool with a rearranged backline.
- Sunderland scored five goals in their opening friendly against York City, with Enzo Le Fee scoring twice.
Risk Factor: Wholesale pre-season substitutions in the second half can disrupt attacking rhythm and lower the overall match tempo.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Iraola demands aggressive pressing to compress space, but missing Alisson and Van Dijk leaves gaps if the forward line presses late.
Enzo Le Fee delivered 98 crosses last season and scored twice against York. He can exploit central spaces behind Liverpool's press.
⚔️ Pick 2: Liverpool vs Sunderland 2-1 @ 8/1
A 2-1 victory for Liverpool aligns with historical patterns and the current operational context of both clubs in Nashville. Liverpool hold a commanding historical record in this fixture, suffering only one defeat across the previous 17 meetings between the sides, which includes nine victories and seven draws. During the 2025-26 Premier League campaign, Liverpool recorded a 1-0 win at the Stadium of Light following a 1-1 draw at Anfield. Despite suffering 20 defeats during a turbulent 2025-26 season, Liverpool maintained an encouraging underlying home attacking average of 1.59 expected goals, showing they possess sufficient firepower to breakdown stubborn defensive lines even when operating with an incomplete squad.
Sunderland proved remarkably effective in their return to the top flight, finishing seventh with 54 points and qualifying for the Europa League. However, Regis Le Bris’s side recorded an average expected goals against of 1.62 per home match, indicating that opponents consistently generated quality chances against their backline. With key defenders Granit Xhaka, Omar Alderete, and Thomas Meunier missing due to post-World Cup breaks, Sunderland remain prone to conceding multiple goals against elite opposition. Nevertheless, Sunderland’s attacking efficiency—highlighted by their 5-1 win over York City—ensures they have the sharp tools to breach a Liverpool defence lacking Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk. A narrow 2-1 scoreline reflects Liverpool’s superior individual quality while accounting for Sunderland’s goalscoring capability.
Risk Factor: Correct Score markets carry high volatility, as a late defensive lapse or missed set-piece can quickly ruin the exact scoreline.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Both Teams To Score YES mean in football betting?
Both Teams To Score YES means that both teams must score at least one goal each during the match for the bet to win. If the final score is 1-1, 2-1, or any scoreline where both teams score, the selection wins regardless of which team triumphs.
How does the Correct Score market function?
The Correct Score market requires predicting the exact scoreline at the final whistle of regulation time. For a Liverpool vs Sunderland 2-1 bet to win, Liverpool must score two goals and Sunderland must score once.
Why is Both Teams To Score YES tipped for Liverpool vs Sunderland?
Both Teams To Score YES is tipped because both Liverpool and Sunderland scored five goals in their opening friendly fixtures while missing key defensive starters. Liverpool are adjusting without Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk, while Sunderland scored five against York City behind Enzo Le Fee's creative form.
Why is a 2-1 Correct Score plausible for Liverpool against Sunderland?
A 2-1 scoreline for Liverpool aligns with Liverpool's 1.59 expected home goals rate and Sunderland's 1.62 expected goals conceded average. Liverpool have won nine of the last 17 meetings between the sides, making a narrow Liverpool victory realistic against a capable Sunderland attack.
Does extra time count towards Correct Score and BTTS bets in pre-season friendlies?
Correct Score and BTTS bets apply exclusively to the standard 90 minutes of regulation play plus injury time. Any goals scored during pre-arranged extra time or penalty shootouts do not count towards settling these wagers.
How do squad absences affect pre-season betting markets?
Squad absences weaken defensive stability and overall cohesion, often increasing the likelihood of goals and errors. Liverpool are playing without Alisson, Van Dijk, and Bradley, while Sunderland lack Xhaka and Alderete, creating conditions for an open match.
What is the difference between Match Result and Correct Score markets?
A Match Result bet simply predicts which team will win or if the game ends in a draw, covering multiple scorelines. A Correct Score bet targets one specific scoreline, offering higher odds due to the lower probability of predicting the exact tally.
How did Liverpool and Sunderland perform in their first pre-season fixtures?
Both Liverpool and Sunderland recorded 5-1 victories in their opening pre-season friendlies. Liverpool defeated Swindon 5-1, while Sunderland defeated York City 5-1 with two goals from Enzo Le Fee.
