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Can Mourinho turn a one-goal deficit into a Bernabéu heist amid a tie already boiling over? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Real Madrid have scored in 11 straight home Champions League games but remain vulnerable to through balls. Benfica have already scored four against them this season, suggesting that while the hosts’ firepower should prevail, Mourinho’s side have enough attacking quality to find the net at the Bernabéu.
Read Rationale ▾
Real Madrid’s defensive absences and Benfica’s clinical edge make a clean sheet unlikely for the hosts. However, Real’s high shot volume (19.1 per game) and home advantage suggest they will score twice, mirroring their recent result against Osasuna while securing their progression in a tight contest.
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Real lead 1-0 after Vinícius’ first-leg strike. Mourinho’s Benfica arrive with threat, edge, and a tie still crackling with tension.
Real Madrid vs Benfica — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Real Madrid’s high volume of 19.1 shots per game at home makes them the implied statistical favourites in the 1X2 market.
Real average 2.44 goals per home Champions League match, making the Over 2.5 goals line a primary focus tonight.
The 2-1 scoreline reflects Real’s recent form against Osasuna and their tendency to concede while scoring at home.
Benfica’s 22 clean sheets across all competitions this season suggest they have the implied solidity to resist Real’s shots.
Match Overview
- Bold Bernabéu streak: Real Madrid have scored in each of their last 11 home Champions League games, averaging 2.44 goals per match in the competition.
- Bold possession clash: Real average 58% Champions League possession with 88.1% pass accuracy, while Benfica sit at 44.8% and 82.8% — control versus disruption.
- Bold clean-sheet muscle: Benfica have 22 clean sheets across 42 matches this season, a serious base for a side chasing a one-goal swing.
Attacking Volume: Champions League Shots per Game
Real Madrid lead the competition in shot frequency, creating constant pressure on opposition goalkeepers.
Their direct approach at the Bernabéu often leads to a high volume of testing efforts.
Benfica are more selective but maintain a consistent threat on the break.
Defensive Foundation: Total Clean Sheets
Benfica’s season has been built on an exceptionally robust defensive record across all competitions.
Mourinho has instilled a serious clean-sheet habit in this side.
While solid, Real have shown more vulnerability, conceding in their last outing.
This tie doesn’t need dressing up. It’s already sparking. Real Madrid bring a 1-0 advantage back to the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu after Vinícius Júnior scored the only goal of the first leg — a night dominated by an ongoing fall-out after Vinícius accused Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni of racially abusing him, prompting a 10-minute stoppage and an investigation that still hangs over the return.
On the pitch, there’s pressure in both directions. Álvaro Arbeloa’s Real come in off a 2-1 loss to Osasuna, and the mood demands a performance lift, not just a result. Benfica, led by José Mourinho, arrive needing a goal, and they’ve already proven they can hurt Real this season — beating them 4-2 in January. Kick-off is 20:00. Expect noise, edge, and a match that could swing on one moment.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Real Madrid absences
- Jude Bellingham (hamstring injury)
- Rodrygo (indirect card suspension, 25.02.2026)
- Dani Ceballos (calf injury, out until 13.04.2026)
- Éder Militão (muscle injury, out until 01.04.2026)
Benfica absences
- None listed.
Real Madrid probable XI
Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Asencio, Rudiger, Carreras; Valverde, Guler, Tchouameni, Guler; Mbappe, Vinicius
Benfica probable XI
Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Rios, Aursnes; Lukebakio, Rafa, Schjelderup; Pavlidis
Tactical Analysis
Real are missing Bellingham and Rodrygo, so the creative load leans even harder on Arda Güler and the ball-carrying thrust of Federico Valverde. The expected inclusion of Vinícius matters, not just for the goal threat, but for the emotional temperature of the night. Benfica’s structure looks built for balance: experience at the back with Nicolás Otamendi, a midfield screen in Richard Ríos and Fredrik Aursnes, and a spearhead in Vangelis Pavlidis who can turn half-chances into panic.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Real Madrid | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| First-leg score | 1 | 0 |
| CL goals (9 apps) | 22 | 10 |
| CL shots per game | 19.1 | 13.7 |
| CL possession | 58.0% | 44.8% |
| CL pass accuracy | 88.1% | 82.8% |
| Clean sheets (all comps) | 14 | 22 CLINICAL |
| Corners per game | 6.55 | 6.10 |
Tactical Battle
Real Madrid: shots, speed, and the left-side spark
Real’s identity is direct even when they dominate possession. They take a lot of shots, they attempt through balls often, and they’ve got serious edge in finishing chances. With Kylian Mbappé (a staggering 23 La Liga goals) alongside Vinícius (9 goals, 5 assists), they don’t need 10 clear chances — they need two or three good ones. Expect Real to squeeze Benfica back with short passing and a high starting position. Trent Alexander-Arnold offers delivery and switches, while Carreras and Vinícius give Real that left-side punch. Without Bellingham, the timing of runs beyond the ball matters even more; it can’t all be to feet. There is one soft underbelly Benfica will fancy. Real are weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and weak against through ball attacks. If Real commit bodies to the final third and lose the ball sloppily, there’s space for Benfica’s runners to attack.
Benfica: Mourinho’s control without the ball
Benfica can play. They like to control territory in the opposition half with short passes and through balls of their own, but their Champions League possession figure hints at a team comfortable staying compact and picking moments to strike. The key is the front line connection. Dodi Lukébakio brings ball-carrying and creativity, Rafa and Andreas Schjelderup can move between lines, and Pavlidis is the finisher — 20 league goals with 4 assists, plus 2.1 aerials won per game. That profile suits a night where one goal changes everything. At the back, Benfica’s strengths are clear: set-piece defending, aerial duels, and a robust spine. Otamendi winning 4.4 aerial duels per game is a big deal when the Bernabéu starts launching crosses and second balls.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early goal timing: Real’s average first goal time is 42’, Benfica’s is 35’. If Benfica land an early punch, the whole dynamic flips instantly.
- Set pieces and aerial battles: Real are very strong defending set pieces and strong attacking them; Benfica are very strong defending set pieces and strong in aerial duels. That’s a collision point.
- Discipline and disruption: Real average 1.92 yellow cards per game (73 total) and have 7 reds; Benfica average 2.07 yellows (87 total) with 5 reds. This tie already has edge — one rash moment can define it.
- Pavlidis vs the centre-backs: Pavlidis is a relentless finisher, and Real’s back line must handle both his runs and his aerial presence when Benfica go direct.
Game-State Scenarios
For Real, it’s the classic trap: dominate, miss the kill shot, then get split by one through ball — exactly where they can look vulnerable. For Benfica, it’s allowing the match to become a shooting gallery; Real average 19.1 shots per game in the Champions League, and that kind of volume eventually forces mistakes, deflections, and desperate defending.
Market Explainer
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires you to predict the winner of the match and whether both teams will score. It is a popular way to increase the price on a favourite when their defence is missing key personnel.
Correct Score
A high-volatility market where you predict the exact final scoreline. It offers higher returns but carries more risk due to the precision required.
🎯 Main Selection: Real Madrid to Win & Both Teams to Score
Real Madrid enter this second leg with a slender advantage, but their historical record at the Bernabéu is the primary driver for this selection. They have scored in 11 consecutive home Champions League matches, averaging nearly 2.5 goals per game in the competition. While they dominate possession (58%) and shot volume (19.1 per match), they are currently navigating significant defensive absences, including Éder Militão. This vulnerability aligns with Benfica’s clinical attacking threat.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Real Madrid average 19.1 shots per game in the Champions League.
- Benfica have already scored four goals against Real Madrid in a single game this season.
- Real Madrid are missing key defensive pillars and top creative spark Jude Bellingham.
Risk Factor: Real Madrid’s focus on disruption could lead to a low-scoring cagey affair if Mourinho prioritises the clean sheet above all else.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Vangelis Pavlidis wins 2.1 aerials per game, supported by Otamendi’s 4.4 wins.
Vulnerable to through ball attacks and missing key central defender Militão.
📊 Scoreline Selection: Real Madrid 2-1 Benfica
The 2-1 scoreline is grounded in the current form and statistical profiles of both teams. Real Madrid recently suffered a 2-1 defeat in league action, highlighting a recurring pattern where they score but fail to keep a clean sheet. Benfica, on the other hand, are highly clinical, having secured 22 clean sheets this season, but the pressure of needing to overturn a deficit will likely force them to open up. With Pavlidis averaging high shot involvement and Mbappé leading the line for the hosts, a high-event game with a narrow home win is the most logical outcome.
Risk Factor: An early red card or a 10-minute stoppage like the one seen in the first leg could completely disrupt the tactical flow and scoring patterns.
Frequently Asked Questions ⊕
What does ‘Real Madrid to Win & BTTS’ mean? ⊕
This means Real Madrid must win the match and Benfica must score at least one goal. Both conditions must be met for the selection to be successful.
Who is the biggest goal threat for Real Madrid? ⊕
Kylian Mbappé is the primary threat with 23 goals this season. Vinícius Júnior also remains central to the attack with 9 goals and 5 assists.
How has Benfica performed against Real Madrid this season? ⊕
Benfica beat Real Madrid 4-2 in January. This proves they have the tactical blueprint to breach the Spanish side’s defence multiple times.
What is the first-leg score? ⊕
Real Madrid won the first leg 1-0. A single goal from Vinícius Júnior separates the two sides heading into the Bernabéu return.
Are there any major absences for Real Madrid? ⊕
Yes, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo are both unavailable. Defensive leader Éder Militão is also sidelined with a muscle injury.
What is Benfica’s defensive record like? ⊕
Benfica have kept 22 clean sheets in 42 matches this season. This is their strongest asset as they attempt to frustrate Real Madrid’s attack.
What is the ‘Match Result’ market? ⊕
This is a bet on the outcome of the match after 90 minutes. You can choose a home win, an away win, or a draw.
What time is kick-off? ⊕
The match kicks off at 20:00 UK time on February 25th. The game will be played at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
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