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Monaco need a result at Stade Louis II — can Juventus’ in-form machine turn the screw in France? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Juventus are a high-volume machine, averaging 17.6 shots per game. Monaco’s defense has conceded 14 goals in 7 European matches, while Juventus have won four of their last six away games. Expect Monaco’s aerial strength to provide a consolation goal in an away victory.
Read Rationale ▾
Monaco average 1.75 goals conceded per match across all competitions. Juventus are masters at protecting leads but remain statistically weak in aerial duels. This creates a scenario where Monaco finds the net but succumb to Juventus’ superior counter-attacking efficiency and 17.6 shot-per-game pressure.
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Monaco vs Juventus Predictions and Best Bets
Monaco vs Juventus — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market probabilities implied from listed odds at Stade Louis II.
Pricing suggests Juventus are the most likely winners at Stade Louis II, with Monaco listed as outsiders.
Both Teams to Score is priced as the more likely outcome (Yes) compared to a clean sheet for either side.
- Bold finishing, blunt damage: Monaco have scored just 8 goals in 7 Champions League matches but have conceded 14 — and they’re coming off a brutal 6-1 defeat to Real Madrid.
- Juventus bring volume: Juventus average 17.6 shots per game in the Champions League, with 14 goals scored — that’s pressure that keeps coming in waves.
- Stade Louis II warning light: Monaco’s last six home matches show 4 defeats, while Juventus have won 4 of their last 6 away matches across all competitions.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Both sides generate significant offensive volume in the Champions League, though Juventus hold the higher average.
With 14 goals scored from this volume, Juventus demonstrate sustained pressure.
Despite high shot numbers, Monaco have converted these into only 8 goals so far.
Defensive Metrics: Total Goals Conceded
A look at the total goals shipped by both clubs across their opening seven Champions League fixtures.
An average of 2.0 goals conceded per game in European competition highlights backline struggles.
Juventus remain more compact, allowing significantly fewer goals than their opponents.
Stade Louis II will feel tight at 20:00 — because the stakes are loud. Monaco need a positive result to secure a place in the playoffs, while Juventus already have a top-24 finish locked in. That doesn’t make this quiet. It makes it dangerous.
Sébastien Pocognoli’s Monaco come back to home comforts after a hard-earned 0-0 at Le Havre, but the recent run has bruises: three defeats in the last six and that heavy 6-1 Champions League loss at Real Madrid still hangs in the air.
Juventus arrive with swagger. Luciano Spalletti’s side have just put three past Napoli in Serie A and beat Benfica 2-0 in Europe last week. Monaco need control. Juventus will try to take it off them.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Monaco: Takumi Minamino (torn knee ligaments, out until 01/08/2026)
- Monaco: M. Karim (cruciate ligament tear, return date not specified)
- Monaco: Paul Pogba (calf injury, return date not specified)
- Monaco: Lukás Hrádecký (knee injury, out until 16/03/2026)
Monaco (Manager: Sébastien Pocognoli) — probable XI
- Philipp Köhn
- Vanderson, Thilo Kehrer, Caio Henrique, Kassoum Ouattara
- Maghnes Akliouche, Denis Zakaria, Lamine Camara, Aleksandr Golovin
- Mika Biereth, Folarin Balogun
Juventus (Manager: Luciano Spalletti) — probable XI
- Michele Di Gregorio
- Pierre Kalulu, Bremer, Lloyd Kelly, Andrea Cambiaso
- Manuel Locatelli, Khéphren Thuram, Weston McKennie, Fabio Miretti, Kenan Yildiz
- Jonathan David
What it means
Monaco losing Minamino removes a proven source of end product (3 goals and 2 assists in Ligue 1). The pressure lands heavier on Folarin Balogun and Aleksandr Golovin to turn spells of possession into real chances.
Juventus look loaded between the lines. With Kenan Yildiz and Fabio Miretti behind Jonathan David, they can press high, win it back, and keep Monaco pinned.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Monaco | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League rank | 21st | 15th |
| Points (7 games) | 9 | 12 |
| CL record (W-D-L) | 2-3-2 | 3-3-1 |
| Goals scored (CL) | 8 | 14 |
| Goals conceded (CL) | 14 | 10 |
| Shots per game (CL) | 15.1 | 17.6 |
| Possession (CL) | 44.4% | 48.4% |
| Pass accuracy (CL) | 82.8% | 85.6% |
| Aerials won (CL) | 11.6 | 11.7 |
Juventus edge the Champions League basics: more points, more goals, fewer conceded. The shot numbers are the real headline — both sides generate chances, but Juve do it more often and with a tighter defensive base.
Monaco’s challenge is efficiency. They shoot plenty in Europe (15.1 per game) yet have only 8 goals to show for it. If that pattern continues, Juventus will happily let them have the ball in harmless areas.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Monaco: ambition on the ball… and danger when it breaks
Monaco want to play. They attempt through balls often, try to control the game in the opposition half, and attack through the middle. On paper, that sounds bold. In practice, it can turn into risk.
Their weaknesses tell you where Juventus will lean: Monaco struggle with individual errors, defending counter attacks, defending set pieces, and stopping opponents creating chances. That is a rough list to bring into a night where you need a result.
The best Monaco route is sharp and direct. Maghnes Akliouche and Lamine Camara can supply runners, while Balogun has the shot volume (2.3 shots per game in Ligue 1) to keep Juventus honest. But Monaco cannot get stretched. Not once.
Juventus: control, then punch — especially down the left
Juventus’ strengths read like a checklist for away domination: counter attacks, attacking set pieces, creating chances through individual skill, and protecting the lead. They like short passes and through balls, and they attack down the left.
That left-sided focus puts pressure on Monaco’s right channel. If Juventus can draw Monaco inside, they can turn it into wide deliveries and second balls — and Monaco’s set-piece defending is already a concern.
The other mismatch is simply pressure. Juventus average 17.6 shots per game in the Champions League. That isn’t “hopeful shooting”. That’s a team that keeps getting into the box and keeps asking questions. Monaco’s defence has conceded 49 goals in 28 matches across competitions (1.75 per game). If Juventus find a rhythm early, the pitch can tilt and stay tilted.
Key duel: Monaco’s aerial strength vs Juventus’ aerial weakness
Monaco are strong in aerial duels, while Juventus are weak in them. That’s Monaco’s chance to flip momentum: win contact, win set pieces, and make Juventus defend their own box. If Monaco don’t turn that into danger, they lose one of their few clear edges.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Juventus are strong attacking set pieces; Monaco are weak defending them. That clash can decide the night.
- Yildiz’s influence: Kenan Yildiz has 8 goals and 4 assists in Serie A with a 7.34 rating — if he finds pockets, Monaco will chase shadows.
- Balogun’s finishing window: Monaco need chances to become goals. Folarin Balogun has 4 goals and 2 assists in Ligue 1 — they need that clinical edge to show up here.
- Game management: Juventus are strong at protecting the lead. Monaco cannot afford to fall behind and start forcing it.
What could go wrong?
For Monaco, it’s the classic double-hit: one sloppy giveaway, one Juventus counter, then the match turns frantic. Their issues with individual errors and counter defence make that a real threat. For Juventus, it’s the opposite risk — get dragged into an aerial, scrappy fight, concede cheap set pieces, and lose control of a fixture that should suit their structured rhythm.
Best Bet for Monaco vs Juventus
Can Juventus’ In-form Machine Turn the Screw in France?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Defense | Monaco concede 1.75/gm; Juve 1.4/gm | Back BTTS |
| Volume | Juve 17.6 shots/gm; Monaco 15.1 | Over 2.5 Goals |
| History | Monaco 4 home L; Juve 4 away W | Away Win |
| Scoring | Juve 14 goals; Monaco 8 goals | Juventus Win |
Juventus to Win & Both Teams to Score
Juventus arrive at Stade Louis II with clinical efficiency, averaging 17.6 shots per game in the Champions League. This sustained pressure has yielded 14 goals, nearly double Monaco’s output of 8. Monaco’s defense is currently the weak link in this fixture, having conceded 14 goals in 7 European outings. Across all competitions, the hosts concede 1.75 goals per game, a rate that provides a clear opening for a Juventus attack featuring Jonathan David and Kenan Yildiz.
Tactically, Juventus excel at protecting leads and exploiting teams on the counter-attack. Monaco are desperate for points to secure a playoff spot, which means they will be forced to leave gaps in transition. Monaco struggle significantly with individual errors and defending counter-attacks, making them a prime target for Luciano Spalletti’s structured transition play. Juventus have already secured a top-24 finish, allowing them to play with a composure that the hosts lack.
However, a clean sheet for the visitors is unlikely. Monaco generate 15.1 shots per game in Europe and are statistically dominant in aerial duels. Juventus are statistically weak in the air, creating a direct mismatch on set-pieces. With Folarin Balogun averaging 2.3 shots per game, the hosts have the volume necessary to find a way past Michele Di Gregorio. Monaco’s ambition on the ball will lead to chances, but their inability to stop opponents from creating clear-cut opportunities will be their undoing.
The disparity in current form is decisive. Monaco have lost four of their last six matches at home, while Juventus have won four of their last six on the road. Juventus possess the tactical maturity to absorb pressure and strike when the pitch stretches.
What could go wrong? Monaco’s aerial dominance is the primary risk. If they can force the game into a series of set-piece battles, they negate Juventus’ advantage in open-play transition. Additionally, if Juventus adopt a purely defensive stance after scoring, they may invite enough pressure to allow Monaco to snatch a draw from a high-volume crossing game.
Correct Score Lean
Juventus 2-1 Monaco
This scoreline reflects the tactical clash of two high-shot teams. Juventus have the firepower to score twice against a Monaco defense that has surrendered 49 goals in 28 matches this season. Conversely, Monaco’s 15.1 shots per game and aerial prowess make a goal for the hosts almost inevitable against a Juventus defense that has conceded 10 goals in this competition. Juventus’ ability to protect a lead ensures they take the three points, but Monaco’s desperation ensures they contribute to the tally.
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