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Anfield under the lights: can Liverpool finish the job and dodge the playoff path against Qarabag? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale▾
Liverpool average 17.3 shots per game but are weak at defending set pieces. Qarabag have scored 13 in 7 matches, indicating they will exploit Liverpool’s defensive leaks even in a home defeat.
Read Rationale▾
Liverpool’s offensive volume meets a Qarabag defense that has conceded 15 times. A 3-1 score reflects Liverpool’s territorial dominance balanced against their struggle to keep clean sheets lately.
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Liverpool vs Qarabag FK Predictions and Best Bets
Liverpool vs Qarabag FK — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot based on current pricing and match analysis.
Liverpool are heavy favourites at Anfield as they look to secure a last-16 spot.
Pricing indicates a realistic chance for both sides to find the net.
- Last-16 pressure, real reward: Liverpool sit fourth on 15 points, two clear of ninth, and that narrow gap makes this finale feel like a straight shootout for a last-16 place.
- Shot volume tells you the tempo: In the Champions League, Liverpool fire 17.3 shots per game to Qarabag’s 11, a split that hints at long spells of Liverpool pinning the visitors back.
- Goals at both ends in this one: Liverpool have 14 goals in 7 Champions League matches, Qarabag have 13 in 7 — and Qarabag have also conceded 15, so the game shape screams chances.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
Liverpool’s territorial dominance is reflected in their significantly higher shot frequency during the league phase.
The Reds consistently pin opponents back, resulting in one of the highest shot volumes in the competition.
Qarabag are more selective with their attempts, often relying on transitions and efficient finishing.
Scoring Reliability: Total League Phase Goals
Both sides have maintained a healthy scoring rate through the first seven fixtures of the competition.
Averaging exactly 2.0 goals per game, demonstrating consistent offensive output.
Only one goal shy of Liverpool’s total, proving they possess a dangerous attacking unit.
Liverpool welcome Qarabag FK to Anfield with the equation simple: they are one win away from a Champions League last-16 place, and they know exactly what’s at stake in this league-phase finale. The mood is prickly domestically — a 3-2 Premier League defeat to Bournemouth ended a 13-game unbeaten run, leaving Liverpool still chasing their first top-flight win of 2026 and cranking up the noise around Arne Slot.
In Europe, though, it’s been a different pulse. Liverpool rolled past Marseille 3-0 last time out, while Qarabag kept their playoff hopes alive with a 3-2 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. Kick-off is 20:00, and if the night starts at full tilt, don’t be surprised — both sides arrive with goals in their boots and urgency in their legs.
Team News & Lineups
Liverpool – injuries/absences
- S. Bajcetic Maquieira (surgery) – out until 01.04.2026
- G. Leoni (cruciate ligament tear) – out until 01.09.2026
- C. Bradley (thigh problems) – listed as unavailable
- F. Chiesa (no eligibility) – until 29.01.2026
Qarabag FK – injuries/absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Liverpool possible starting lineup
Alisson; Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Jones, Endo; Gakpo, Mac Allister, Ngumoha; Ekitike
Qarabag FK possible starting lineup
Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Jankovic, Bicalho; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Duran
What it means
- Liverpool leaning on Frimpong and Robertson either side of Van Dijk/Konate signals width and thrust, not caution — it suits their wing-focused attacking strengths.
- If Chiesa can’t feature, Liverpool’s rotation up top tightens. That places extra weight on Cody Gakpo and Hugo Ekitike to keep the front line sharp.
- Qarabag’s shape reads like a clear 4-2-3-1, with Jankovic and Bicalho asked to hold the middle so Andrade, Zoubir and Montiel can spring Duran quickly.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Champions League) | Liverpool | Qarabag FK |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 13 |
| Shots per game | 17.3 | 11.0 |
| Possession | 54.5% | 46.9% |
| Pass accuracy | 88.0% | 81.5% |
| Aerials won | 12.1 | 7.3 |
| Team rating | 6.82 | 6.53 |
Liverpool’s profile points to territory and pressure: more of the ball, cleaner passing, and a big edge in shot volume. Qarabag’s numbers scream efficiency and punch — they don’t need to dominate possession to put goals on the board, and their 13 goals across seven matches proves they’ll take the first window you give them.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Liverpool’s plan: lock the game in Qarabag’s half
Liverpool’s Champions League rhythm is built around short passes and control in the opposition half. That matters because Qarabag’s possession share sits below 50% in this competition; if Liverpool start sharp, the visitors may spend long spells pinned into a compact block.
Expect Liverpool to lean heavily into their listed strengths:
- Attacking down the wings and flooding the final third with runners.
- Long-shot opportunities — a direct response to defences that crowd the box.
- Counter-attacks when Qarabag finally step out and lose it.
That front four has obvious roles. Alexis Mac Allister as the connector, Gakpo as the threat from the side or half-space, and Ekitike as the spearpoint. With Rio Ngumoha in the mix, Liverpool look set for pace in wide areas — and that’s a problem for a Qarabag back line that must defend repeated deliveries and second balls.
Qarabag’s route: survive the wave, then hit the seams
Qarabag’s Champions League numbers point to a side willing to play without the ball: 46.9% possession, 81.5% pass accuracy, and 11 shots per game. That’s not timid — it’s targeted. Their win over Frankfurt in a 3-2 thriller hints at a team that can trade punches when the game breaks open.
Their biggest attacking edge might be timing. Liverpool’s weaknesses include:
- Defending set pieces
- Defending against long shots
- Protecting the lead
- Avoiding offside (very weak)
That combination creates a clear away-team instruction: stay alive long enough for the game to wobble. If Qarabag can steal moments through dead balls or a quick switch into shooting lanes, Liverpool’s vulnerabilities get tested without Qarabag needing loads of possession.
The individual match-ups that decide it
- Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate versus Camilo Duran: Qarabag’s forward has 4 goals in 7 Champions League matches, and if he can pin either centre-half, the three behind him can play off scraps and rebounds.
- Matheus Silva on the right: he’s logged a 7.03 rating and 1.9 aerials won, and he’ll have work to do against Liverpool’s wide thrust — but he can also make Qarabag dangerous on turnovers.
- Liverpool’s long-shot temptation: Liverpool are strong at creating long shots, while Qarabag concede 15 goals in seven matches. If Liverpool get trigger-happy, it either becomes a siege… or it turns into transitions the other way.
This is the core tension: Liverpool want a structured, territory-heavy game; Qarabag want the chaos moments that make a clean narrative fall apart.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and second balls: Liverpool are weak defending set pieces, and Qarabag have enough attacking threat to turn one corner or free kick into a massive momentum swing.
- Offside management: Liverpool are very weak at avoiding offside — if their timing is off, attacks end early and the crowd’s patience can thin.
- Discipline and tempo control: Across Champions League stats, both sides show 80 discipline — if the game gets frantic, the stop-start rhythm could suit Qarabag more than a Liverpool side trying to build waves of pressure.
- First goal feel: Liverpool’s “protecting the lead” weakness adds edge to any early breakthrough — scoring first doesn’t end the job, it changes the psychological fight.
What could go wrong?
Liverpool have looked ruthless in Europe, but the domestic wobble is real: the unbeaten run has gone, and the search for a first league win of 2026 keeps the pressure simmering. If Liverpool don’t convert their shot volume into a cushion, Qarabag have already shown — Frankfurt, especially — they can land clean punches in a game that feels like it’s drifting away from them.
Best Bet for Liverpool vs Qarabag
Will Anfield’s Defensive Woes Open the Door for a Qarabag Surprise?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | LFC 17.3 shots/gm; Qarabag 13 goals | Back BTTS |
| Defense | Qarabag conceded 15; LFC weak at set pieces | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Pressure | LFC 4th (15pts); Qarabag chasing playoffs | LFC to Win |
Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score
Liverpool enter this Champions League finale with a simple equation: a win guarantees a last-16 place. They sit fourth with 15 points, but a narrow two-point gap to the playoff spots makes this a high-stakes shootout. Their 17.3 shots per game average proves they possess the volume to overwhelm most defenses, especially at Anfield.
However, the defensive data shows significant vulnerabilities. Liverpool are weak at defending set pieces and protecting leads, flaws that contributed to their recent 3-2 domestic defeat. These defensive lapses mean even when they dominate territory, they remain susceptible to conceding.
Qarabag are highly efficient in front of goal, netting 13 times in seven European matches. Their 3-2 victory over Frankfurt highlights a side capable of trading punches with elite opposition. With Camilo Duran scoring four goals in seven appearances, the visitors have the individual quality to exploit Liverpool’s transition gaps.
The game shape involves Liverpool pinning Qarabag back using a 54.5% possession share and high passing accuracy. While this territorial control creates chances for Ekitike and Gakpo, it leaves space for Qarabag to strike on the counter. Given Qarabag have conceded 15 goals this campaign, a Liverpool win is the standard, but their own defensive leaks point toward a game where both sides find the net.
What could go wrong?
Liverpool’s domestic form is a concern, as they are still chasing a first win in 2026. If the mental weight of their recent defeat hinders their clinical edge, the goal volume may drop. Additionally, if Alisson produces a world-class display to mask the set-piece weaknesses, the “Both Teams to Score” leg of the bet could fail despite a home win.
Correct Score Lean
Liverpool 3-1 Qarabag
This scoreline reflects Liverpool’s heavy shot volume (17.3 per game) and Qarabag’s defensive record of 15 goals conceded in seven matches. Liverpool average two goals per game in Europe and will likely exceed that against a porous backline. However, Qarabag’s efficiency and Liverpool’s specific weakness against set pieces suggest the visitors will secure a consolation goal, mirroring the high-scoring nature of Qarabag’s recent 3-2 thriller against Frankfurt.
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