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Atleti need the win in Madrid — can Bodo/Glimt keep their nerve and turn this into a proper European ambush? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Atleti have won 12 of 13 CL home games, but their defense has leaked 13 goals in 7 matches. Bodo/Glimt are fearless scorers, netting 12 times already including 3 against Man City. Expect home dominance but a clean sheet is unlikely given both teams’ stats.
Read Rationale ▾
Atlético’s massive aerial advantage (14.1 vs 9.4) and home clinical edge suggest a multi-goal margin. Bodo’s tendency to attack ensures they should grab a goal, but Atleti’s superior quality in the box at both ends makes 3-1 the most likely high-scoring outcome.
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Atletico Madrid vs Bodo/Glimt Predictions and Best Bets
Atleti vs Bodo/Glimt — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Markets suggest a dominant position for Atletico at the Metropolitano, with the visitors facing long odds for an upset.
Pricing suggests an open game with goals likely at both ends given the high scoring rates of both sides.
- Home advantage with bite: Atlético have won 12 of their last 13 Champions League home matches and have been beaten only once in their last 18 European games on home soil.
- Pressure points in the table: Atlético sit 12th on 13 points, level with the six teams above them, while Bodo/Glimt are 28th on 6 points, two off 24th.
- Goals at both ends: Atlético have 16 goals in 7 Champions League games and Bodo/Glimt have 12, with Bodo also conceding 14 — this has the shape of chances, not caution.
Attacking Output: Total Champions League Goals
Both teams have been prolific in the final third throughout the tournament, setting the stage for an offensive encounter.
Averaging over 2 goals per game, proving clinical at home and away.
Scored 3 against Man City, showing they can breach top-tier defenses.
Physical Edge: Aerial Duels Won per Game
Physicality and set-piece strength could be the deciding factor in the Madrid air.
Dominant in the air, creating a major mismatch for second balls.
Preference for technical play on the deck rather than physical duels.
Riyadh Air Metropolitano under the lights, 20:00, and Atlético Madrid know the script. Win, keep the dream of a top-eight finish alive, then look over their shoulder at the other results. Diego Simeone’s side are 12th in the Champions League table on 13 points, level with the pack above them, and already guaranteed at least a place in the knockout round playoffs.
Bodo/Glimt arrive 28th, chasing points to climb into the playoff places. They’re not here to admire the stadium. They’ve just beaten Manchester City 3-1 in this competition, and they’ve shown they can play with personality.
The mood in Madrid should be intense rather than relaxed. Atlético are strong at home in Europe — but the visitors bring goals, pace, and the kind of fearlessness that can turn one loose touch into a problem.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Atlético Madrid: Clément Lenglet (inner ligament injury, out until 01/03/2026)
- Atlético Madrid: Antoine Griezmann (hamstring injury, return date not specified)
Atlético Madrid (Manager: Diego Simeone) — possible XI
- Oblak
- Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Ruggeri
- Simeone, Barrios, Koke, Almada
- Alvarez, Sorloth
Bodo/Glimt (Manager: Kjetil Knutsen) — possible XI
- Haikin
- Sjovold, Bjortuft, Gundersen, Bjorkan
- Evjen, Berg, Fet
- Blomberg, Hogh, Hauge
What it means
No Griezmann changes the feel of Atlético’s attack. It leans harder on Julián Alvarez and Alexander Sørloth to finish moves, and on Koke and Thiago Almada to thread the final pass. Lenglet’s absence also narrows Simeone’s defensive options, which matters against a front three led by Jens Petter Hauge, who’s been electric in this competition.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Atlético Madrid | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League rank | 12th | 28th |
| Points (7 games) | 13 | 6 |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-2 | 1-3-3 |
| Goals for (CL) | 16 | 12 |
| Goals against (CL) | 13 | 14 |
| Shots per game (CL) | 14.0 | 12.4 |
| Possession (CL) | 51.3% | 51.4% |
| Pass accuracy (CL) | 86.4% | 84.3% |
| Aerials won (CL) | 14.1 | 9.4 |
This is tighter than the names might suggest. Possession is basically level, and the shot gap isn’t huge either. The big split is in aerials won — Atlético are built for duels and second balls, which matters if Bodo go direct under pressure.
The goals columns also hint at an open edge: both sides have scored freely and conceded plenty. If Atlético don’t control the transitions, Bodo have enough punch to make this uncomfortable.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Simeone’s Atleti: wing thrust, counters, and set-piece menace
Atlético’s strengths point to a familiar recipe: counter attacks, attacking down the wings, and aerial duels. They’re also very strong from direct free kicks and strong at defending set pieces — a classic Simeone mix of discipline and aggression in the big moments.
Expect Atlético to build with short passes but to turn it vertical quickly when the opening appears. With Alvarez and Sørloth up top, there’s variety: one can run channels, the other can pin centre-backs and win contact. The wide areas matter too — Marcos Llorente and Giuliano Simeone give Atlético energy and running power, and the team’s tendency to attack down the right fits that profile.
But there’s a red flag that can’t be ignored: Atlético are very weak at protecting the lead. If they go ahead and then drop too deep, this can swing into a nervy second half.
Knutsen’s Bodo/Glimt: brave on the ball, ruthless in the box
Bodo’s numbers paint a side that isn’t coming to park it. They average 51.4% possession and play with 84.3% pass accuracy in the Champions League, and they’ve scored 12 goals in seven matches.
The threat is clear: Jens Petter Hauge has 4 goals and a standout 7.70 rating, backed by a lively supporting cast. Kasper Høgh brings a direct striker’s edge with 2 goals and 1 assist, while Håkon Evjen and Ole Didrik Blomberg each have 2 assists — chance creation from multiple angles, not just one star.
Where Atlético can hurt them is in the air and at dead balls. Bodo’s Champions League aerial output (9.4) is well below Atlético’s (14.1). If Atlético turn this into corners, free-kicks, and repeated box entries, Bodo’s defenders will be tested again and again.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and second balls: Atlético’s strength in direct free kicks and aerial duels could decide the tight moments when open play stalls.
- Hauge’s touchline duels: Jens Petter Hauge is Bodo’s most productive scorer in this competition. If he gets isolated one-v-one, Atlético may need extra cover.
- Alvarez as the connector: With Griezmann out, Julián Alvarez (7 La Liga goals, 3 assists, 7.09 rating) becomes even more central — finishing chances and linking play.
- Game state management: Atlético have that glaring weakness in protecting the lead. If they score first, the next ten minutes are massive.
What could go wrong?
Atlético can fall into a familiar trap: score, retreat, invite pressure, then lose control of the rhythm. Against a Bodo side comfortable seeing the ball and packed with creators — Evjen, Blomberg, Berg — one scrappy phase can become an equaliser. And if Atlético chase the game late, the fixture can open into exactly the kind of end-to-end stretch where a single break decides everything.
Best Bet for Atletico Madrid vs Bodo/Glimt
Can Bodo/Glimt survive a Madrid ambush at the Metropolitano?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home Form | Atleti: 12 wins in last 13 CL home games | Home Win |
| Scoring | Atleti: 16 goals; Bodo: 12 goals (7 games) | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defense | Atleti: 13 conceded; Bodo: 14 conceded | BTTS: Yes |
Atletico Madrid to Win & Both Teams to Score
Atletico Madrid are formidable at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, boasting 12 wins from their last 13 Champions League home matches. They are clinical in front of their own fans, and the urgency of securing a top-eight finish will drive them to attack from the first whistle. With 16 goals scored in seven continental fixtures, the offensive output is there to overwhelm the visitors.
However, Bodo/Glimt are not a side that travels to defend. They have already found the net 12 times in this competition, including a high-profile 3-1 victory over Manchester City. They average over 12 shots per game and maintain possession levels nearly identical to Atletico. This fearlessness makes them a constant threat on the transition, especially with Jens Petter Hauge in peak form.
The defensive statistics reinforce the likelihood of goals at both ends. Atletico have conceded 13 goals in seven games, showing a specific vulnerability once they take a lead. They often retreat and invite pressure, which is dangerous against a Bodo side that features multiple creators like Evjen and Blomberg. Bodo have conceded 14 themselves, suggesting they lack the structural discipline to shut out Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth.
Expect a high-energy encounter where Atletico’s superior aerial presence and home advantage eventually tell. While the Spanish giants should secure the three points, their recent habit of letting leads slip and Bodo’s proven scoring pedigree make the “Both Teams to Score” addition a high-value play.
What could go wrong?
Atletico Madrid are known for their weakness in protecting leads. If they score early and drop into a deep defensive block, they risk a repeat of games where they lose rhythm and control. If Bodo/Glimt fail to convert their transition opportunities or struggle with the physical mismatch in aerial duels, the match could turn into a one-sided Atletico victory without the visitors finding the net.
Correct Score Lean
Atletico Madrid 3-1 Bodo/Glimt
Atletico’s attacking variety, even without the injured Antoine Griezmann, is significant. They average over two goals per game in the Champions League, and the combination of Sorloth’s aerial threat and Alvarez’s movement should exploit a Bodo defense that has shipped 14 goals. Bodo/Glimt have shown they can score against the elite, as seen in their three goals against Manchester City, but their struggle in aerial duels (winning just 9.4 per game compared to Atleti’s 14.1) will likely see them punished on set pieces. A 3-1 scoreline reflects Atleti’s dominance and Bodo’s punchy counter-attack.
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