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Who grabs control of the top-four chase in Sinsheim? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams have 34 goals this season and poor defensive records. 9 of the last 10 H2Hs saw 3+ goals.
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These sides are separated by one point. Both average ~2 goals per game and struggle to keep clean sheets.
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Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions and Best Bets
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below for informational purposes only.
Hoffenheim’s strong home record meets Leverkusen’s dominance in possession.
Both teams have scored 34 goals this season.
- Goals in waves: Hoffenheim have scored at least three goals in seven of their last 10 Bundesliga matches, and they just created eight big chances in a 5-1 rout.
- Same goals, different control: Both sides have 34 Bundesliga goals after 16 games, but Leverkusen play at 59.9% possession with 89.0% pass accuracy — it’s a different kind of dominance.
- Home fortress vs away habit: Hoffenheim are chasing a sixth straight league win at PreZero Arena, while Leverkusen have won four consecutive away matches at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga.
Season Output: League Goals Scored
Both clubs have been prolific in the Bundesliga, matching each other blow-for-blow after 16 matches.
Scored 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 league games.
Matches Hoffenheim’s tally while averaging 59.9% possession.
Tactical Identity: Possession & Control
While the goal counts are equal, the methods differ significantly between the two sides.
Created 8 big chances in their recent 5-1 rout.
Boasts a league-high 89.0% pass accuracy.
This one has edge, noise, and real meaning. PreZero Arena hosts a straight shootout in the top-four race: Hoffenheim (5th, 30 points) versus Bayer Leverkusen (6th, 29 points). One win swings momentum. One wobble drags you into the pack.
Hoffenheim arrive buzzing after smashing Borussia M’gladbach 5-1 on Wednesday, racing into a 4-0 half-time lead and carving out eight big chances. They’ve turned goals into a habit.
Leverkusen, though, come in raw after a 4-1 defeat to Stuttgart on January 10. That result stung — but their season still has heft, and their football still screams control. Kick-off is at 14:30.
Team News & Lineups
Hoffenheim absences
- K. Olagie Frees (broken ankle)
- Adam Hložek (calf injury)
- Koki Machida (cruciate ligament tear)
- Dennis Geiger (ill)
Bayer Leverkusen absences
- None listed
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup
Baumann; Coufal, Hranac, Kabak, Prass; Kramaric, Avdullahu, Burger; Lemperle, Asllani, Toure
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup
Flekken; Quansah, Bade, Belocian; Arthur, Andrich, Garcia, Grimaldo; Hofmann, Tillman; Terrier
What it means
Hoffenheim missing Hložek removes an attacking option, and Geiger being out narrows midfield choices — but the projected XI still has goals and creativity in bulk: Lemperle, Asllani, Kramaric, plus Burger driving from central areas.
Leverkusen look built for control and width, with Alejandro Grimaldo (5 goals, 4 assists, 7.46 rating) a constant threat from the left and Aleix García (4 assists) dictating tempo.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Bundesliga) | Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 6th |
| Points | 30 | 29 |
| Games played | 16 | 16 |
| Goals scored | 34 | 34 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 24 |
| Shots per game | 13.0 | 14.6 |
| Possession | 54.4% | 59.9% |
| Pass accuracy | 80.8% | 89.0% |
| Clean sheets (all comps listed) | 4 | 8 |
| Yellow cards (total) | 36 | 57 |
The numbers hint at a clash of styles rather than a mismatch. Leverkusen keep the ball cleaner and shoot more often, but Hoffenheim are the sharper finishers lately — and they concede fewer. Discipline could bite too: Leverkusen’s card count is high, and Hoffenheim’s set-piece defending is a known worry.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Hoffenheim: fast starts, wing threat, and ruthless finishing
Hoffenheim aren’t sneaking through matches — they’re exploding through them. The Gladbach game said everything: 4-0 by half-time, eight big chances, and a front line that turns half-chances into chaos. They’re strong finishing chances, strong on the counter, and dangerous down the wings.
That suits the likely personnel. Vladimír Coufal (4 assists, 7.15 rating) can pump service from wide, while Wouter Burger (3 goals, 4 assists, 7.17 rating) gives them bite and craft in midfield. Up top, the goals are spread: Tim Lemperle, Fisnik Asllani, and Andrej Kramaric all have 6 in the league. That’s three different problems for any back line — and it’s why Hoffenheim keep hitting three goals so often.
The concern? Hoffenheim are weak defending through balls and set pieces. If they push high and lose shape, they can be played through.
Leverkusen: possession, precision, and a left-side knife
Leverkusen’s identity is clear: short passes, possession football, control in the opposition half, and long-shot threats when the block won’t budge. They average 59.9% possession and 89% pass accuracy — the kind of numbers that suffocate teams who don’t like defending.
They’ve also got match-winners in key zones. Grimaldo is the headline: goals, assists, and a relentless final ball. Patrik Schick brings penalty-box presence (6 goals, 2 assists), and Tillman adds movement between lines.
But there’s a catch. Leverkusen are weak at protecting a lead and stopping opponents from creating chances. Against a Hoffenheim side that live off momentum — and are chasing a sixth straight home league win — that’s a dangerous flaw if the game swings wild.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first 20 minutes: Hoffenheim can blitz teams early, and Leverkusen are fresh off a heavy defeat. The opening rhythm matters.
- Set pieces on both sides: Hoffenheim’s set-piece defending is a soft spot, while both sides have strong direct free-kick threat.
- Wide channels: Hoffenheim are strong down the wings; Leverkusen are strong down the wings too. Full-backs and wing-backs will decide who gets clean delivery.
- Discipline and disruption: Leverkusen have 57 yellow cards and 3 reds across the listed matches, while Hoffenheim are aggressive. That’s a volatile mix in a tight fixture.
What could go wrong?
If Hoffenheim over-commit chasing another big scoreline, Leverkusen’s through-ball rhythm and counter threat can rip them open. And if Leverkusen take control but don’t kill the game, their tendency to struggle protecting leads can invite a late, frantic finish — exactly the kind of chaos Hoffenheim thrive in.
Best Bet for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
Could this top-four shootout at the PreZero Arena become the season’s highest-scoring thriller?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | Hoffenheim 34 goals; Leverkusen 34 goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Attack | HOF scored 3+ in 7/10; B04 scored in 7/8 away | Both Teams to Score |
| Defense | HOF 4 clean sheets; B04 1 clean sheet in last 6 | BTTS & Over 2.5 |
| H2H History | 9 of last 10 meetings went Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
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Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
This fixture is a collision between two of the Bundesliga’s most efficient but defensively fragile attacks. Both Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen enter this match with identical scoring records of 34 goals through 16 games. This is not a case of one-off bursts; it is a sustained identity for both sides.
Hoffenheim are currently in devastating form at home. They have won five consecutive league matches at the PreZero Arena, incredibly scoring at least three goals in every single one of those victories. Their recent 5-1 demolition of Borussia Mönchengladbach, where they created eight big chances, proves they can dismantle top-tier opposition with ease.
Leverkusen provide the perfect dance partner for a high-scoring affair. While they dominate the ball with 59.9% possession and a 89% pass accuracy, they are vulnerable on the transition. They have managed just one clean sheet in their last six league matches and are fresh off a 4-1 hammering by Stuttgart.
History also dictates goals in this matchup. Nine of the last ten head-to-head meetings between these two have cleared the Over 2.5 goals line. With Leverkusen winning four straight visits to this stadium while scoring 3+ goals each time, and Hoffenheim winning the most recent meeting 2-1 in August, neither side has the defensive blueprint to shut the other out.
What could go wrong? The primary risk is a tactical stalemate where Leverkusen’s high possession (59.9%) successfully suffocates Hoffenheim’s counter-attacking rhythm. If Kasper Hjulmand opts for a hyper-conservative approach to arrest their recent slump, the game could lack the transitional chaos that usually fuels these high scorelines.
Correct Score Lean
Hoffenheim 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
A high-scoring draw is the most logical outcome given the parity between these sides. They are separated by just one point in the table and both possess lethal attacking options like Andrej Kramaric and Alejandro Grimaldo. While Hoffenheim’s home winning streak is formidable, Leverkusen have won four of their last six away trips and rarely fail to score on the road. With both sides averaging over 2.1 goals per game in their respective home/away splits, a 2-2 deadlock reflects their shared offensive potency and mutual defensive leaks.
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