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Can Gladbach break the spell at Borussia-Park, or will Leverkusen’s top-four chase roll on? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 12 meetings with Gladbach and dominate every key performance metric. Gladbach are winless in four and struggle to create chances, recently posting just 0.07 xG in a half. Leverkusen’s superior possession and clinical finishing should secure the three points here.
Read Rationale ▾
Gladbach have Haris Tabakovic in fine scoring form with 10 goals, suggesting they can find the net at home. However, Leverkusen’s attacking depth and Gladbach’s defensive vulnerability (9 conceded in 4 games) make a 2-1 away victory the most logical outcome in a competitive match.
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Borussia-Park is set for a proper temperature-check fixture: a mid-table Gladbach side searching for air, and a Leverkusen outfit chasing the Bundesliga’s top four with real intent.
Gladbach vs Leverkusen — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Leverkusen haven’t been beaten in their last 12 clashes with Gladbach, explaining why they are strong favourites in the 1X2 market.
Gladbach have conceded nine goals in their last four matches, suggesting a high-scoring game is likely at Borussia-Park.
Leverkusen average 2 goals per game while Gladbach score 1.2, making the 1-2 scoreline a high-probability outcome.
Leverkusen’s 59.3% possession average miles clear of Gladbach’s 44.6%, indicating a match-long tug-of-war over territory.
Match Preview
Gladbach sit 12th on 21 points, and the mood is edgy after a 1-1 draw at Werder Bremen where the performance felt flat — two shots and 0.07 xG in the first half tells the story of a side struggling to spark.
Leverkusen arrive sixth with 35 points, just four points off fourth-placed Stuttgart, and they’ve found a rhythm again — fresh from a 3-0 DFB-Pokal win over St. Pauli and a 3-1 league victory at Eintracht Frankfurt. Kick-off is at 17:30.
Technical Mastery: Pass Accuracy Comparison
The ability to retain the ball and build pressure is a defining difference between these two sides this season.
Leverkusen rely on short passing and technical precision to pin opponents back into their own half.
Gladbach’s lower accuracy reflects a style that often takes more risks or struggles under pressure.
Efficiency Gap: Goals Scored per App
Looking at the raw volume of goals delivered per league outing so far.
Leverkusen’s clinical nature is supported by taking 13.9 shots per game.
Gladbach have struggled for volume, ranking bottom five for expected goals created.
Quick Hits
- Bold vs Blunt: Gladbach are winless in four (two defeats, two draws) and conceded nine goals in that run, while also ranking fifth bottom for xG created (26.2) this season.
- Control Gap: Leverkusen average 59.3% possession and 88.6% pass accuracy in the league, miles clear of Gladbach’s 44.6% and 82.2% — that’s a match-long tug-of-war over territory.
- A Pattern Leverkusen Like: Leverkusen haven’t been beaten in their last 12 straight clashes with Gladbach in all competitions, and they’ve also unbeaten at half-time in the last 12 Bundesliga meetings.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Borussia Monchengladbach
Kevin Diks (foot bruise) is listed as injured.
Alejo Sarco (torn muscle fibre) is also listed as injured.
Bayer Leverkusen
No other absences are specified beyond the list above.
Probable Gladbach XI:
Nicolas; Takai, Elvedi, Diks; Scally, Reitz, Engelhardt, Neuhaus, Ullrich; Honorat, Tabakovic
Probable Leverkusen XI:
Blaswich; Quansah, Andrich, Tapsoba; Arthur, Fernandez, Garcia, Grimaldo; Tillman, Poku; Schick
Lineup implications — quick read
- If Diks can’t go, it bites into Gladbach’s defensive balance: he’s already chipped in 3 league goals and is a regular presence.
- Leverkusen’s shape screams control: Garcia’s 93.4% pass accuracy and Grimaldo’s output (5 goals, 5 assists) point to a side built to pin teams back and play through pressure.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Bundesliga) | Borussia M’gladbach | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 6th |
| Points | 21 | 35 |
| Goals scored | 24 (20 apps) | 38 (19 apps) CLINICAL |
| Shots per game | 10.9 | 13.9 |
| Possession | 44.6% | 59.3% |
| Pass accuracy | 82.2% | 88.6% |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 11 |
| Yellow cards | 27 / 1.17 | 63 / 2.03 |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Leverkusen’s plan: dominate the ball, stress the flanks
Leverkusen lean into possession football, short passes, and through balls often. That fits the personnel: Aleix Garcia completes passes at 93.4%, while Edmond Tapsoba sits at 91.3% — a foundation that allows Leverkusen to recycle play until the gaps appear.
The real edge, though, is wide. Their strengths include attacking down the wings and counter attacks, and Alejandro Grimaldo is the flashing warning light: 5 goals and 5 assists with a standout 7.36 rating. If Leverkusen keep Gladbach’s wing-backs pinned, they can turn Borussia-Park into a one-way pitch.
Gladbach’s problem: a blunt attack meets a side that loves control
Gladbach’s style points to attacking through the middle, often playing in their own half, and being non-aggressive. That can look tidy when it works — but the recent run has been chaotic: winless in four and nine conceded across those matches. The bigger concern is creation. When your first-half threat can drop to two shots and 0.07 xG, you’re living on scraps.
The best route for Gladbach is to make this messy at key moments. Tabakovic has 10 league goals, wins 3.5 aerials a match, and takes 2.1 shots per game — he’s the obvious target for direct phases and second balls. If Honorat (team-high 5 assists) can find him early, Gladbach can turn single moments into real damage.
Key Moments to Watch
- Half-time tone: Leverkusen are unbeaten at half-time in the last 12 Bundesliga meetings with Gladbach. If Gladbach want a different story, they need a first half with purpose, not survival.
- Set-piece danger: Leverkusen rate very strong for shooting from direct free kicks. Give away cheap fouls in range and you’re inviting pressure — and Gladbach’s weaknesses include avoiding fouling in dangerous areas.
- The Grimaldo factor: 5 goals + 5 assists from left-sided areas is not a side detail — it’s a match-shaper. If Gladbach can’t block the supply lines, they’ll spend the evening back-pedalling.
- Tabakovic’s duel: Gladbach’s clearest route to the net is Tabakovic — 10 goals, 2.1 shots per game, and strong in the air. If Leverkusen win that battle cleanly, Gladbach’s attacking options narrow fast.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Leverkusen, the danger is switching off in transition — their own profile points to issues defending counter attacks and protecting the lead. For Gladbach, it’s even simpler: if the attacking output mirrors that Bremen first half, they can’t ask the crowd to carry them. At that point, Leverkusen’s control game takes over — and Borussia-Park becomes a long, chasing afternoon.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
The most straightforward market where you predict the final outcome: Home Win, Draw, or Away Win. Pros: High liquidity and clear results. Cons: No margin for error if the game ends in a draw when you’ve backed a win.
Correct Score
A high-variance market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. Pros: Significantly higher odds than match result markets. Cons: Extremely difficult to predict accurately as a single late goal can ruin the bet.
🎯 Bayer Leverkusen to Win – Rationale
Bayer Leverkusen enter this fixture as strong favourites based on a historical dominance that spans 12 consecutive unbeaten meetings against Borussia Monchengladbach. This psychological and tactical edge is reinforced by the current technical gap between the two squads. Leverkusen operate with a high-control system, averaging nearly 60% possession and a pass accuracy of 88.6%. This allows them to dictate the tempo and territory, a factor that is likely to overwhelm a Gladbach side that has looked increasingly blunt in recent weeks.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Leverkusen are unbeaten at half-time in their last 12 Bundesliga meetings with Gladbach.
- Gladbach rank in the bottom five for xG created (26.2) this season.
- Leverkusen average 13.9 shots per game compared to Gladbach’s 10.9.
Risk Factor: Leverkusen’s tendency to struggle when defending counter-attacks could offer Gladbach a route back into the game if they can find efficiency in transition.
🎯 Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 – Rationale
Predicting a 2-1 victory for the visitors aligns with the statistical scoring patterns of both clubs. Leverkusen are clinical, averaging exactly 2 goals per game this season, while Gladbach’s defensive record has plummeted, conceding nine times in their last four matches. However, Gladbach are rarely completely kept out at home, particularly with Haris Tabakovic spearheading the attack. Tabakovic has netted 10 league goals and poses a significant aerial threat that can exploit Leverkusen’s occasional lapses in protecting a lead.
Risk Factor: If Gladbach repeat their low-threat first half from the Bremen game (0.07 xG), they may fail to score entirely, making 0-2 or 0-3 more likely.
⊕ Match & Market Q&A
⊕What does Match Result (1X2) mean?
The Match Result market is a bet on the final outcome of the game after 90 minutes. You choose between a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2).
⊕Why is Leverkusen the favourite for this game?
Leverkusen are favourites because they are winless in 12 straight games against Gladbach and sit higher in the table. Their superior possession and goal-scoring metrics make them the statistically stronger side.
⊕What is the risk of a Correct Score bet?
Correct Score bets are risky because they require absolute precision. Even if the team you back wins, any goal that changes the final scoreline from your prediction results in a loss.
⊕How influential is Haris Tabakovic for Gladbach?
Tabakovic is Gladbach’s primary scoring threat with 10 league goals this season. His presence in the box is the main reason why a clean sheet for Leverkusen is not guaranteed.
⊕What does ‘unbeaten at half-time’ indicate?
This stat shows that Leverkusen rarely start slowly against Gladbach. In their last 12 meetings, they have never been trailing when the half-time whistle blows.
⊕Can I bet on goals without picking a winner?
Yes, markets like ‘Over/Under Goals’ or ‘Both Teams to Score’ allow you to bet on the total number of goals regardless of which team actually wins the match.
⊕What is the significance of Leverkusen’s pass accuracy?
Leverkusen’s 88.6% pass accuracy means they are very efficient at keeping the ball. This tires out opponents and reduces the number of chances the other team can create.
⊕What is xG and why is it used?
Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of chances created. Gladbach’s low xG suggests they are struggling to create high-quality scoring opportunities, even when they have the ball.
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