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Will Gladbach’s central game finally stop Augsburg’s recent grip on this fixture at Borussia-Park? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Borussia M’gladbach are positioned higher in the table and possess a significantly better defensive record at home compared to Augsburg’s away struggles. Haris Tabakovic is in excellent scoring form with seven goals, and he should find joy against an Augsburg defense that concedes nearly two goals per game on average. While Augsburg have a good recent head-to-head record, their current form on the road—failing to win eight of their last nine away matches—suggests Gladbach have the upper hand. The home side's superior passing and ability to control the middle third should eventually tell.
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Both teams carry defensive scars, making a clean sheet for either side unlikely. Gladbach’s weakness against through balls and set pieces offers Augsburg a route to goal, but the hosts' attacking efficiency, led by Tabakovic, should see them outpace the visitors. Augsburg have conceded 28 goals this term and lack clinical finishing, which often leaves them on the wrong end of narrow scorelines. A 2-1 result reflects the competitive nature of the bottom-half scrap while acknowledging Gladbach’s slight statistical edge in terms of goal creation and home-field advantage.
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Monchengladbach vs FC Augsburg Predictions and Best Bets
M’gladbach vs Augsburg — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Current prices suggest Gladbach are the clear frontrunners to secure victory, with Augsburg’s poor away form reflected in the high price for an away win.
Analysis points toward a Gladbach victory where both sides may find the net due to defensive vulnerabilities.
- League context in one glance: Borussia M’gladbach are 12th on 16 points after 15 games (4-4-7), while Augsburg are 15th on 14 points (4-2-9).
- Defensive record tells the mood: Gladbach have conceded 24 goals at 1.60 per 90 with six clean sheets (40.0%), while Augsburg have conceded 28 at 1.87 per 90 with three clean sheets (20.0%).
- Head-to-head trend is harsh on the hosts: Augsburg have won four of the last six meetings, including a 3-0 away win on 22/02/2025, and Gladbach have lost the last three clashes in all competitions.
Defensive Profile: Goals Conceded Per 90
Both sides have defensive vulnerabilities, though Gladbach shows a slightly higher level of stability in the back line this season.
A 40% shutout rate highlights a defense that can be resolute, though they remain weak against through-ball attacks.
Augsburg’s goals-against metric is coupled with a low 20% shutout rate, reflecting frequent defensive lapses.
Match Discipline: Disciplinary Record
Discipline could be a factor given the high card volume associated with the visitors’ aggressive tactical approach.
With 50 yellow cards accumulated, the team’s style leads to significant game stoppages and set-piece exposure.
Gladbach maintains a more disciplined approach, relying on their offside trap rather than physical aggression.
A trip to Borussia-Park is rarely the place to go looking for peace and quiet, and FC Augsburg certainly aren’t arriving with calming intentions. The Residents of the Fugger City head to Mönchengladbach on Sunday to face Borussia M’gladbach, with both sides parked in the lower middle of the Bundesliga table and both carrying the sort of defensive scars that make every game feel like it could tip either way.
Gladbach are 12th with 16 points, Augsburg 15th with 14. That’s the immediate edge to it: not a glamorous summit meeting, but a proper scrap for momentum, where a decent run can turn the mood of a season and a bad afternoon can leave you staring down at the wrong kind of company.
There’s also a recent psychological hook. Gladbach have lost their last three matches against Augsburg in all competitions, and the most recent head-to-head results lean heavily Augsburg’s way: four Augsburg wins in the last six meetings, including a 3-0 away win at Borussia M’gladbach on 22/02/2025. It’s a fixture that has developed a habit of biting Gladbach, even when the setting is meant to favour them.
On paper, this one is framed by goalkeepers. Moritz Nicolas is the expected starter for Gladbach, Finn Dahmen for Augsburg. Both have plenty to do in the season narrative, because both teams concede regularly and both teams have habits—offside traps, aggressive moments, and risky defending—that can turn a match into a sequence of sudden chances.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Gladbach’s expected starting goalkeeper is Moritz Nicolas, and he has been a constant in the league campaign with 15 Bundesliga appearances and 1,350 minutes. The injuries and absences list matters here: N. N’Goumou Minpole is out for fitness until 19.01.2026, while Tim Kleindienst (knee surgery) and Robin Hack (knee problems) are also listed. There’s also T. Pereira Cardoso missing with illness. That trims attacking options and pushes more responsibility onto the players who are available to build the final third.
Haris Tabakovic is central to that. He’s Gladbach’s top Bundesliga scorer with seven, and his squad profile shows seven goals and two assists in league minutes this season. Franck Honorat has three assists, and Joe Scally has two, which hints at where the supply comes from: forward support and wide involvement rather than one single creative hub.
The formation summary gives a strong clue about how Gladbach might set up: a 3-4-2-1 used six times, with 11 scored and 12 conceded. Their style profile fits that idea too—attack through the middle, play in their own half, and use an offside trap while staying non-aggressive. It’s a slightly odd mix at first glance: non-aggressive, but also a team that likes to steal the ball from the opposition very strongly. The point is that Gladbach pick their moments. They don’t chase everything. They wait, then they nick it.
Augsburg arrive with Finn Dahmen expected in goal, also on 15 Bundesliga appearances and 1,350 minutes. Their most-used shape is the same as Gladbach’s: a 3-4-2-1 used 11 times, scoring 12 and conceding 24. That immediately tells you what Augsburg matches often feel like: open, stretched, and full of situations where the back three are asked to defend uncomfortable space.
Augsburg’s style notes are blunt. They take a lot of shots, they are aggressive, they use an offside trap, and they stick to a consistent first eleven. The weaknesses list is equally blunt: keeping possession is weak, finishing is weak, defending counter attacks is weak, avoiding individual errors is weak, and defending long shots is weak. That’s a lot of ways to make life harder than it needs to be, especially away from home.
How the Match Could Be Played
The tactical heart of this game is the clash between how both sides want to defend and how both sides accidentally create danger for themselves. Both are associated with an offside trap. Both have issues avoiding offside. Both struggle to finish chances. That combination almost guarantees phases where the movement is sharp, the final pass is ambitious, and the end product doesn’t always follow.
Gladbach’s attacking preference is clear: they attack through the middle. In a 3-4-2-1, that often becomes a hunt for pockets in front of the opposition back three, with the two “2” players in the line behind the striker trying to turn and slip runners through. Augsburg are listed as weak defending counter attacks and weak avoiding individual errors. That means Gladbach can be direct and still be effective: win it, play quickly into the central lane, and let Augsburg’s structure test itself.
Tabakovic is the obvious focal point. He not only leads Gladbach for goals in the league, he also wins four aerials per game in the squad list. In a match where both teams have 15.8 aerials won per game in the overall team stats, the aerial battle isn’t a side note—it’s a main road. Gladbach can go into him early, pin Augsburg’s centre-backs, and build second phases off knockdowns.
Augsburg, though, won’t politely sit in and let that happen. Their dangerous attacks per match sit at 42.59, higher than Gladbach’s 39.67, and their total attacks average 102 per match compared to Gladbach’s 91.67. That means Augsburg get up the pitch a lot, even when the football is imperfect. They also average 12.5 shots per game in the Bundesliga, slightly above Gladbach’s 11.6. Augsburg’s shot volume is real; the issue is what happens after the trigger is pulled.
That’s where Gladbach’s defensive sore points come in. Gladbach are very weak at defending against through ball attacks. Augsburg’s style includes being aggressive and taking lots of shots, and their team summary earlier in the Facts talks about 11 assists, which is a side that does create. If Augsburg can pull Gladbach’s back line into stepping up for the trap, a well-timed run and a straight pass can expose that “very weak” through-ball defending in the most punishing way.
Set pieces look like another hinge. Gladbach are weak at defending set pieces and weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Augsburg, meanwhile, are strong defending set pieces, which matters because it gives them a reliable way to survive pressure. If Gladbach dominate territory for spells, Augsburg have a defensive platform to get through those corners and wide free kicks. The reverse is more dangerous: if Gladbach get dragged into cheap fouls or messy marking, Augsburg don’t need a flowing move to hurt them.
Tempo-wise, this could become a match of bursts rather than a steady drumbeat. Both teams hover around 45–47% possession, with Gladbach at 45.6% and Augsburg at 45.5% in the season summaries, and both complete a solid amount of passes without being possession-obsessed: Gladbach average 83.1% passing, Augsburg 79.3%. That means neither side naturally suffocates you with the ball. The game is more likely to be about who wins the middle third duels and who takes advantage of the first loose touch.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Gladbach’s league record is 4-4-7, with 18 scored and 24 conceded, leaving them on 16 points after 15 matches. That means they concede 1.60 goals per 90 and carry a -6 goal difference. They’ve also kept six clean sheets, a 40.0% shutout rate. The combination is telling: Gladbach can shut games down completely, but when the door opens, it opens wide.
Augsburg’s league record is 4-2-9, with 17 scored and 28 conceded, and 14 points after 15 matches. Their goals against per 90 sits at 1.87 and their goal difference is -11. They have three clean sheets, a 20.0% shutout rate. Put simply, Augsburg matches spend more time in the “we might concede again” zone, which makes their decision-making in transition even more important.
Shot profiles back up the idea of an active match. Gladbach’s total shots sit at 240 across their listed matches, 13.33 per game, and 69% of their shots come from inside the box. Augsburg have 216 total shots at 12.71 per game, with 67% inside the box. Both teams get into the area to shoot, which keeps the contest honest. Neither is living off miracle strikes from 30 yards; they are getting into dangerous areas.
Discipline could also shape the rhythm. Augsburg have 50 yellow cards in the match breakdown, averaging 2.94 per game, compared to Gladbach’s 22 at 1.22 per game. That means Augsburg games have more stoppages and more moments where a free kick becomes a defensive test.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing factor is the battle between the offside trap and the through ball. Gladbach play the offside trap but are very weak against through ball attacks. Augsburg also play an offside trap and are weak avoiding offside. One well-timed run can turn a “clever” high line into a panicked sprint back towards goal.
The second moment is Tabakovic’s night in the box. He has seven Bundesliga goals and wins four aerials per match in the squad list. If Gladbach make this a crossing-and-second-ball game, he becomes the centre of everything.
The third moment is set-piece composure. Gladbach are weak defending set pieces and weak avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, while Augsburg are strong defending set pieces. That imbalance can decide whether pressure becomes a goal or just noise.
The fourth moment is how Augsburg handle their own mistakes. They are weak at avoiding individual errors and weak defending counter attacks. If they lose the ball in a bad spot, Gladbach’s preference to attack through the middle means the punishment can arrive quickly, straight through the most vulnerable part of the pitch.
What could go wrong with this read? The obvious answer is finishing. Both sides are labelled weak at finishing scoring chances, and matches like this can swing wildly on a goal that arrives against the run of play, or a spell of dominance that produces nothing but groans.
Best Bet for Borussia M’gladbach vs FC Augsburg
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Borussia M’gladbach to win
Borussia M’gladbach enter this fixture seeking to rectify a troubling trend that has seen them drop points repeatedly against FC Augsburg. Despite being positioned 12th in the Bundesliga table, two spots above their visitors, they have lost their last three competitive meetings with the Fugger City side. However, the tactical landscape of this specific match-up at Borussia-Park provides a clear path for the home side to secure all three points if they exploit the glaring structural deficiencies in the Augsburg setup.
The primary driver for a Gladbach victory is the presence of Haris Tabakovic. The striker is in formidable form, leading the team with seven league goals. His physical profile is a nightmare for an Augsburg defense that is notably weak at avoiding individual errors and defending counter-attacks. Tabakovic wins four aerial duels per match, and given that Augsburg concede 1.87 goals per 90 minutes, his ability to dominate the penalty area will be the deciding factor. Gladbach’s tendency to attack through the middle perfectly aligns with Augsburg’s struggle to maintain defensive cohesion when teams transition quickly through the central lanes.
While Gladbach have struggled for consistency, their home advantage is bolstered by a superior statistical baseline. They average 1.60 goals conceded per game compared to Augsburg’s 1.87, and they have secured double the amount of clean sheets this season. Augsburg’s away form is a significant concern; they have failed to win eight of their last nine matches on the road and have notably struggled to find the back of the net in recent away trips.
Furthermore, Augsburg’s aggressive style often leads to a high volume of cards and fouls. They average nearly three yellow cards per game, which will inevitably lead to dangerous set-piece opportunities for Gladbach. While Gladbach must be wary of their own weaknesses against through balls, their ability to control possession—averaging over 83% passing accuracy—should allow them to dictate the tempo and eventually break down an Augsburg side that is prone to defensive lapses under sustained pressure.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to this selection is Gladbach’s documented vulnerability to through-ball attacks and set pieces. Augsburg are statistically strong at defending set pieces and play an aggressive game that can disrupt Gladbach’s rhythm. If Augsburg can successfully bait Gladbach’s defense into a high line and exploit the space with a direct counter-attack, the visitors’ psychological edge from recent head-to-head victories could see them snatch an unexpected result.
Correct score lean: 2-1
A 2-1 victory for Gladbach is the most logical outcome given the defensive records of both sides. Gladbach have kept six clean sheets this season, but their weakness in defending through balls means they rarely emerge unscathed against aggressive opponents. Augsburg have managed to score 17 goals this season and have a habit of scoring against Gladbach, having found the net in four of their last six meetings. However, Augsburg’s poor finishing and Gladbach’s superior central attacking threat through Tabakovic suggest the hosts will have just enough to outscore their opponents in a tight contest.
The defensive scars of both teams make a shutout unlikely. Augsburg’s 20% shutout rate indicates they almost always concede, particularly on the road. Gladbach’s attacking variety, supported by Franck Honorat’s three assists and Joe Scally’s wide delivery, provides enough supply to ensure they hit the two-goal mark, while a single defensive lapse from a Gladbach side that is “very weak” at stopping through balls allows Augsburg to remain competitive on the scoresheet.
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