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Will Dortmund’s home momentum crush Heidenheim’s survival fight at Signal Iduna Park? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Dortmund are unbeaten in 13 home league matches, keeping clean sheets in three of their last four at Signal Iduna Park. Bottom-side Heidenheim struggle for possession and have conceded in 22 straight games, making a home win without conceding highly probable.
Read Rationale ▾
Heidenheim ship 2.05 goals per match and are vulnerable to Dortmund’s elite wing service. With the hosts dominating 54% possession and the visitors rooted to the bottom, a clinical three-goal victory for the home side is the statistical lean.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Heidenheim Predictions and Best Bets
Dortmund vs Heidenheim — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and current William Hill odds.
Signal Iduna Park remains a fortress, with Dortmund’s price reflecting an extremely high likelihood of a home win against the league’s bottom side.
Serhou Guirassy is the focal point of the Dortmund attack, with his odds suggesting a high probability of finding the net against a leaky defence.
Heidenheim’s low possession and poor scoring record make a Dortmund shutout highly plausible according to the markets.
- Home fortress energy: Dortmund are unbeaten in 13 straight home league matches, have won four Bundesliga home games in a row, and kept three clean sheets across that run at Signal Iduna Park.
- Heidenheim can’t keep it out: Heidenheim have conceded in 22 straight Bundesliga matches, ship 2.05 goals per game across their listed matches, and sit bottom with 42 conceded in 19 league games.
- Control vs survival football: Dortmund average 54% possession with 85% pass accuracy, while Heidenheim sit at 43% possession and 78% passing — a swing that usually pins one team back for long spells.
Match Control: Average Possession
A comparison of ball retention highlights how Dortmund dictate play while Heidenheim operate without the ball.
Dortmund maintain higher territory control through short passing and combinations.
The visitors typically rely on long balls and crosses with lower sustained possession.
Defensive Profile: Goals Conceded per Game
Numerical view of defensive stability across the current Bundesliga campaign.
Reflects a team that has kept clean sheets in three of their last four home matches.
Based on 42 goals conceded in 19 games, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities.
This is a brutal away day for a side desperate to breathe. Heidenheim, rooted to the bottom of the Bundesliga, head to Signal Iduna Park knowing the margin for error is basically non-existent. Frank Schmidt’s group don’t need a perfect performance — they need a stubborn one, with a striker’s touch and a back line that finally stops the bleeding.
Borussia Dortmund, under Niko Kovač, want a response after a rough European week. Two of their last three matches ended in 0-2 defeats (Tottenham, Inter), but the domestic picture is still powerful: 12 unbeaten in the Bundesliga and sitting second on 42 points. Kick-off is 16:30. Expect Dortmund to come out fast, loud, and angry.
Team News & Lineups
Team News (injuries/absences)
- Borussia Dortmund: Waldemar Anton (ill)
- Borussia Dortmund: Marcel Sabitzer (calf problems)
- Borussia Dortmund: Niklas Süle (back problems)
Probable Lineups
Borussia Dortmund (possible XI):
Kobel; Can, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson; Beier, Brandt; Guirassy
Heidenheim (possible XI):
Ramaj; Busch, Mainka, Siersleben, Fohrenbach; Schoppner, Dorsch; Ibrahimovic, Beck, Honsak; Pieringer
What it means
Dortmund’s absences sit in areas that affect balance and depth — especially if Anton and Süle are missing at the back. That pushes extra responsibility onto Nico Schlotterbeck (7.38 rating, 4 Man of the Match) and Emre Can.
Heidenheim’s XI looks like a team built to suffer and spring: a deep base, wide outlets, and Marvin Pieringer tasked with turning scraps into something real. The problem is Heidenheim’s weakness list reads like a Dortmund shopping list: wings, through balls, long shots, and defending against skilful players.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd (42 pts) | 18th (13 pts) |
| Goals scored (Bundesliga) | 38 | 17 |
| Goals conceded (Bundesliga) | 17 | 42 |
| Shots per game | 12.5 | 11.4 |
| Possession | 54% | 43% |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 78% |
| Clean sheets (all leagues listed) | 12 (30 games) | 1 (21 games) |
| Corners per game | 5.1 | 4.71 |
Dortmund don’t need chaos to win games — they can control them. Heidenheim, meanwhile, concede too often and too easily, and their low-possession approach invites pressure. If this becomes wave after wave in the Heidenheim third, the numbers say it’s exactly the type of match Dortmund thrive on at home.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Dortmund: control, central pressure, and quick combinations
Kovač’s Dortmund are built on short passing and territory. They control the game in the opposition’s half and attack through the middle, but the real danger comes from how quickly they turn patient possession into a punch.
Expect Julian Brandt (5 goals) to hunt pockets and drag defenders out of shape. Expect Julian Ryerson to keep feeding runners — he’s sitting on 6 assists, which tells you Dortmund love using that wide-to-inside lane to create cut-backs and quick finishes.
Up top, Serhou Guirassy and Maximilian Beier give Dortmund a proper double threat: both have 6 league goals, and both take shots at decent volume. If Dortmund get early dominance, those two are usually the ones turning pressure into something on the scoreboard.
The one worry? Dortmund are weak at protecting the lead. If they go ahead and get loose, Heidenheim’s direct football can drag them into awkward transitions.
Heidenheim: long balls, width, and a very hard afternoon
Heidenheim will not out-pass Dortmund. They don’t keep possession well, and their style is long balls, crosses, and width while operating in their own half. That’s survival football, plain and simple.
They’ll try to get Arijon Ibrahimovic (2 assists) on the ball early and often, because he’s one of the few who can carry it into Dortmund territory without immediately giving it back. Patrick Mainka is massive for them too — 19 appearances, 3.4 aerials won per game, and he’ll be firefighting constantly.
But the tactical mismatch is loud: Heidenheim are weak defending wings and through balls, and very weak defending against skilful players. Dortmund’s strengths are finishing chances and controlling territory. That’s an ugly overlap.
The pressure points
- Dortmund’s wide service: if Ryerson and Svensson push high, Heidenheim’s full-backs get pinned and the box starts filling up.
- Second balls and set-piece scraps: Heidenheim need chaos moments, not long spells of defending.
- Game-state nerves: Dortmund’s lead management isn’t flawless — Heidenheim’s only route is to hang around and make it feel uncomfortable.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first goal window: Dortmund’s average first goal time sits at 42’, while Heidenheim’s is later at 52’. If Dortmund strike earlier than usual, the match can open up quickly.
- Wing defending under stress: Heidenheim are weak against attacks down the wings, and Dortmund love sustained pressure in the final third — expect repeated overloads and cut-backs.
- Aerial duels in the box: Dortmund have ball-winners, but Heidenheim’s best chances often come from direct deliveries. Mainka and Pieringer are the obvious targets.
What could go wrong?
For Dortmund, it’s an emotional hangover: dominate, miss chances, then concede a scruffy one from the first proper Heidenheim attack. For Heidenheim, it’s the familiar nightmare — concede early, chase shadows, and watch the game turn into a long, draining defensive drill that keeps producing shots and corners until something breaks.
Best Bet for Borussia Dortmund vs Heidenheim
Will Dortmund’s home momentum crush Heidenheim’s survival fight at Signal Iduna Park?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home Form | BVB: 13 unbeaten; 3 CS in 4 | Win to Nil |
| Defence | Heidenheim: 42 conceded; 2.05/gm | BVB Over 1.5 Goals |
| Possession | BVB: 54% vs Heidenheim: 43% | Handicap -1 |
| Passing | BVB: 85% vs Heidenheim: 78% | BVB to Win |
Dortmund to Win to Nil
Signal Iduna Park is currently a fortress that bottom-tier sides cannot breach. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in 13 straight home league matches, a run that includes four consecutive Bundesliga home victories. Crucially, they have kept three clean sheets across those four matches, proving that their domestic defensive discipline at home remains elite.
Heidenheim arrive rooted to the bottom of the table with a staggering 42 goals conceded in just 19 league games. Their inability to keep the ball out of their own net is constant, as they have conceded in 22 straight Bundesliga matches. Offensively, they offer very little to suggest they can break Dortmund’s resolve, averaging only 43% possession and a lowly 78% pass accuracy.
This lack of control means the visitors are pinned in their own third for long spells. They rely on long balls and crosses that Dortmund’s centre-backs are well-equipped to handle. Niko Kovač’s side will control the tempo through Julian Brandt and Julian Ryerson, who provides elite wide service into the box.
Heidenheim are specifically weak at defending against through balls and skilful players, which are the exact areas where Dortmund thrive. Because the visitors struggle to sustain attacks or keep possession, the likelihood of them creating enough high-quality chances to score is minimal. The statistical gap between second and bottom is too wide to ignore here.
What could go wrong?
Dortmund occasionally suffer from lapses in concentration following poor European results. If they dominate possession but fail to convert early chances, a single scruffy set-piece or a rare successful direct counter-attack from Marvin Pieringer could ruin the clean sheet, even if the hosts eventually secure the three points.
Correct Score Lean
Borussia Dortmund 3-0
A 3-0 scoreline reflects the vast chasm in quality. Heidenheim ship an average of 2.05 goals per game and are notoriously weak at defending their flanks. Dortmund’s attacking duo of Serhou Guirassy and Maximilian Beier, who have 12 league goals between them, are perfectly placed to exploit a defence that has conceded 42 times this season. Given Dortmund’s recent record of three clean sheets in four home games and Heidenheim’s struggle to maintain possession, a dominant shutout victory for the hosts is the most authoritative conclusion.
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