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Dortmund vs Monchengladbach Predictions Signal Iduna Park is set for a proper Friday-night Bundesliga mood piece as Borussia Dortmund host Borussia Mönchengladbach in a fixture that carries weight at both ends of the table. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Dortmund are immense at home, remaining unbeaten at Signal Iduna Park this season and winning 12 straight home games against Gladbach. However, they rarely keep things tight, conceding in four of their last five matches. Gladbach have scored in 16 of their last 18 away trips and possess the league's seventh-highest scorer in Tabakovic. With the last five meetings between these two seeing both teams find the net and averaging over four goals per game, the home win with goals at both ends offers the most balanced reading of the data.
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This scoreline aligns with Dortmund's average of 1.71 goals scored and Gladbach's tendency to find the net on the road. Dortmund have drawn two of their last league games 1-1, but their superior home quality and Gladbach's defensive fragility—conceding 22 goals this season—should see the hosts edge it. A 2-1 result reflects a controlled Dortmund victory where the visitors manage to snatch a goal on the counter, a pattern seen in Dortmund's recent 2-1 European results and Gladbach's competitive away form.
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Dortmund vs Monchengladbach Predictions and Best Bets
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- Dortmund’s defensive platform has been a genuine foundation: 12 goals conceded in 14 matches, with seven clean sheets, showing why so many of their games stay within their control.
- Gladbach’s away profile is strikingly different to their overall league position: 10 goals scored and only five conceded in six away matches, with three wins, one draw and two losses.
- Tabakovic arrives as Gladbach’s standout finisher with seven league goals, while Dortmund’s threat is shared, led by Guirassy on five and Adeyemi on four this season.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
Both sides sit in that “could be lively, could be tight” zone, and the average total-goals figures offer a quick read on how open their league matches tend to be.
Their season blends solid defending with enough attacking output to keep matches moving, without everything turning into end-to-end chaos.
Gladbach matches have carried a bit more scoreboard swing, shaped by a goals-for and goals-against line that invites momentum shifts.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets give a blunt but useful snapshot of how often a side can shut the door completely across the league campaign.
Conceding 0.86 goals per match goes hand-in-hand with a habit of keeping opponents off the scoreboard altogether.
A 1.57 goals-conceded average suggests they can be exposed, even if they’ve still managed to put together several complete defensive performances.
Attacking Reliability: How Often They Score
This highlights consistency in front of goal: one side has been relentless at landing at least one punch, while the other has been more stop-start.
A 0% “failed to score” mark underlines a side that usually finds a route to goal, even when the rhythm isn’t perfect.
With a 43% “failed to score” rate, their attacking output can hinge on whether they turn promising moments into clean chances.
Can Dortmund’s control and depth of scoring outlast Gladbach’s away-day punch?
Dortmund start the weekend third with 29 points from 14 matches, still slightly irritated after being held to a 1-1 draw by Freiburg on December 14. Gladbach, meanwhile, arrive 11th on 16 points, licking wounds after a 3-1 defeat to Wolfsburg on December 13. The table gap is clear enough, but the profiles make this an intriguing clash of rhythms: Dortmund have been tough to beat all season (eight wins, five draws, one loss), while Gladbach’s campaign has had more swing to it (four wins, four draws, six losses). Put those ingredients in front of the Yellow Wall and you rarely get a quiet evening.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Dortmund’s possible starting lineup points to a back three in front of Gregor Kobel: Niklas Süle, Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck, with Julian Ryerson and Daniel Svensson flanking as the wide outlets. In midfield, Pascal Groß and Felix Nmecha suggest a blend of control and legs, while Karim Adeyemi and Carney Chukwuemeka sit close to Serhou Guirassy.
That selection hints at a side built to hold the middle, stretch the pitch with the wing-backs, and then attack quickly once the ball is moved into the inside channels. With Guirassy leading the line and Adeyemi alongside him in support, Dortmund look set up to turn territory into shots and, crucially, turn shots into goals: they’ve scored 24 in 14 while conceding only 12.
Gladbach’s possible XI also leans into a three-at-the-back structure: Moritz Nicolas behind Joe Scally, Nico Elvedi and Kevin Diks. In front, Jens Castrop, Rocco Reitz, Yannik Engelhardt and Luca Netz shape the midfield line, with Shuto Machino and Giovanni Reyna placed to support Haris Tabakovic.
That reads like a team ready to defend with numbers, then break with purpose through the two supporting attackers, trying to get Tabakovic into finishing areas rather than asking him to do everything with his back to goal. With Tabakovic already on seven league goals, it makes sense that Gladbach would want to build their best moments around his movements and timing.
How the Match Could Be Played
The most interesting part of this matchup is that both likely shapes naturally create the same battleground: the wide channels and the spaces just inside the wing-backs. Dortmund’s likely back three plus wing-backs can give them a stable platform in possession, because they can spread the pitch early and still keep three players behind the ball. If Ryerson and Svensson push high, Dortmund can pin Gladbach’s wide midfielders back and force the visitors to choose: step out to press the flanks, or hold their line and protect the centre.
Gladbach’s structure suggests they’ll want to keep the centre crowded with Reitz and Engelhardt, and then use Reyna and Machino to connect attacks. But the risk against Dortmund is straightforward: if you sit too deep, Dortmund have the numbers to recycle possession and start again; if you step out too far, Adeyemi and Chukwuemeka are positioned to receive between lines and accelerate play towards Guirassy.
A key theme could be how Dortmund build their attacks. With Groß and Nmecha in midfield, there’s a natural platform for controlled possession. Dortmund average 52% possession, which suggests they’re comfortable spending long spells on the ball without losing their edge. Their wing-backs can provide the width, while the two supporting attackers can hover in pockets. That’s where the match could tilt: if Adeyemi and Chukwuemeka can receive on the half-turn, Dortmund can attack the gaps either side of Elvedi, forcing Diks and Scally to make decisions they’d rather avoid.
For Gladbach, the counter-argument is that Dortmund’s adventurous wing-backs leave space if transitions break cleanly. Machino and Reyna look like the players tasked with making those moments stick. If Gladbach can win the ball and find Reyna early, they can try to pull Dortmund’s back three across and create an angle for Tabakovic. The visitors’ away form suggests they’re capable of executing that plan: three wins, one draw and two losses on the road, with 10 goals scored and only five conceded away from home.
The other tactical question is how brave Gladbach are out of possession. Dortmund’s defensive numbers are strong, but they’re not a team that turns every game into a low-event chess match. They take 12 shots per match and put 4.43 of those on target, which is enough volume to sustain pressure even when the first wave is repelled. If Gladbach allow Dortmund to settle into a steady rhythm of attacks, they’ll need to be outstanding in their box defending and in the duels around the second ball.
And then there’s the finishing lane. Dortmund have spread their scoring: Guirassy has five league goals, Adeyemi has four, and Julian Brandt has three. If the home side can create even a modest stream of chances, they’ve got multiple routes to punish you. Gladbach, by contrast, lean more heavily on Tabakovic’s output at the top end.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Dortmund’s position in third is backed up by control and defensive consistency. They’re taking 2.07 points per game, scoring 1.71 per match and conceding just 0.86. That goals-against number matters because it speaks to game state: Dortmund don’t often need chaos to win; they can stay patient, keep their structure, and trust that they won’t need three or four to get over the line.
Their expected goals figures also suggest a side that doesn’t rely on perfect finishing. They average 1.47 xG for per match and 1.25 xG against. In plain terms, they tend to create slightly more than they concede, and when you add their 50% clean-sheet rate (seven in 14), you can see why so many of their matches have a controlled feel.
Gladbach’s season has been more uneven in both boxes. They average 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, with an xG against of 1.64. That’s a useful clue for this specific fixture: it hints that opponents can regularly get into good shooting positions against them. If you’re facing a Dortmund side that averages 12 shots per match, you’d rather not be allowing the kind of chances that inflate xG against.
There’s also a contrast in possession: Dortmund average 52%, Gladbach 47%. That doesn’t mean Gladbach can’t play, but it does suggest Dortmund are more likely to control territory and dictate the tempo. The visitors’ “failed to score” rate of 43% is another important note, because if they don’t land a punch in their transition moments, they can end up defending for long stretches without the relief of a sustained spell up the pitch.
Key “Moments” to Watch
This game may swing on what happens in the spaces beside Gladbach’s central defenders. If Dortmund’s wing-backs can push Netz and Castrop backwards, it squeezes the visitors’ midfield line deeper and leaves Reyna and Machino further away from Tabakovic. That separation can turn attacks into hopeful, low-percentage moves—exactly the kind Dortmund’s defensive record suggests they’re comfortable dealing with.
At the other end, Gladbach’s best moments could come when they win the ball and break quickly into the lanes vacated by Dortmund’s wing-backs. If Reyna can receive early and turn, or if Machino can carry the ball into the final third, Tabakovic’s movement becomes a real problem. He’s already shown he can finish consistently, with seven league goals, and Dortmund’s back three will have to be switched on to prevent him getting clean looks.
There’s also a subtle discipline subplot. Ryerson is Dortmund’s most-booked player with four cards, and Scally is Gladbach’s most-booked with five. In a match where the wide areas could be the main highway, those duels can quickly become a sequence of little fouls, little stoppages, and one big moment where a player has to pull out of a challenge. That can change how aggressively a side defends a winger or closes down a break.
What could go wrong with this read? Football loves a curveball. A single early goal can flip the script completely: the side that expected to counter suddenly has to chase, or the side that planned to control the ball starts forcing passes that aren’t there. Fine margins in both boxes matter too—especially when one team has multiple scorers and the other leans heavily on one standout finisher.
Best Bet for Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
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Borussia Dortmund to win and both teams to score
Rationale
This selection is heavily supported by the statistical profiles of both teams and their historical head-to-head record at Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund enter this fixture as significant favorites due to their formidable home record; they remain unbeaten at their “fortress” this season with four victories and two draws in the Bundesliga. Furthermore, Dortmund have a psychological stranglehold on this specific matchup, having won 14 of the last 18 meetings against Mönchengladbach and boasting 12 consecutive home league wins against them.
However, despite Dortmund’s dominance in terms of results, their defensive performances suggest they are highly likely to concede. Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in only 50% of their matches this season and have conceded at least once in four of their last five outings across all competitions. This vulnerability is paired with a Mönchengladbach side that, while inconsistent, is remarkably persistent in front of goal. The “Foals” have managed to score in 16 of their previous 18 away league matches and arrive on the back of three consecutive away victories where they found the net.
Tactically, the match is set to be open. Dortmund average 12 shots per match and have scored in 22 consecutive games, ensuring they have the offensive volume to overcome Gladbach’s defense, which has conceded 22 goals this season. On the other side, Gladbach’s Haris Tabakovic is in fine form with seven league goals, and the visitors’ structure is designed to exploit the spaces left by Dortmund’s adventurous wing-backs. Previous meetings underscore this high-scoring trend; the last five head-to-head encounters produced a total of 23 goals, with every single one of those matches seeing both teams find the net. Given Dortmund’s elite home form and the defensive lapses present in both camps, a home victory coupled with goals at both ends is the most logical outcome supported by the evidence.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this pick is a clinical defensive performance from Dortmund that suppresses Gladbach’s counter-attacking threat. If Dortmund’s back three manages to isolate Haris Tabakovic and prevent Giovanni Reyna from linking play, Gladbach’s high “failed to score” rate of 43% could resurface. Additionally, Gladbach’s away defensive record of only five goals conceded this season is the second-best in the league, suggesting that if they prioritize a low-block, they could theoretically keep the scoreline lower than historical trends suggest.
Correct score lean
2-1
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