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Can Augsburg survive Bayern’s Allianz Arena blitz — or will Kompany’s leaders turn it into another statement afternoon? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Bayern have scored 71 goals in 18 games and face an Augsburg side that has lost four straight away matches. With a 19.4 shots-per-game average and Augsburg’s weakness in avoiding individual errors, a comfortable home victory by three or more goals is the most likely outcome.
Read Rationale ▾
Augsburg have failed to score in their last three away games, while Bayern average nearly four goals per match. Given Augsburg’s defensive frailties and Bayern’s relentless pressure at the Allianz Arena, a 4-0 scoreline reflects the vast gulf in quality and current away scoring droughts.
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Bayern Munich vs Augsburg Predictions and Best Bets
Bayern vs Augsburg — William Hill Market Snapshot
Key markets with illustrative probabilities based on current Bundesliga form.
Bayern’s record-breaking start makes them overwhelming favorites at the Allianz Arena.
Given Bayern’s goal-scoring rate, handicap markets offer the primary focus for this tie.
- Relentless Pace-Setters: Bayern have 50 points from a possible 54 after 18 matchweeks — a league record — and they’re 11 points clear at the top already.
- Goals at Full Volume: Bayern have 71 Bundesliga goals from 18 games and are even being talked about in the same breath as a 134-goal pace this season.
- Augsburg Under Pressure: Augsburg sit 15th with 15–16 points (sources conflict), have lost their last four away Bundesliga matches, and haven’t scored in their last three away games in all competitions.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Match
Bayern’s territorial dominance is reflected in their relentless shot volume compared to Augsburg’s counter-attacking approach.
With 71 goals in 18 games, Bayern’s high volume results in nearly 4 goals per match on average.
Augsburg rely more on physical aerial duels and long shots to find their limited openings away from home.
League Standing: Total Points after 18 Games
A comparison of total season points highlighting the gulf between the league leaders and the relegation-threatened visitors.
Bayern have dropped only 4 points all season, establishing a historic pace at the top of the table.
Sitting in 15th, Augsburg arrive on a run of four consecutive away defeats in league competition.
All roads lead to Allianz Arena — and right now, Bayern Munich look like a team built to turn big fixtures into routine. Vincent Kompany has them top of the Bundesliga with 50 points, ripping through opponents with 71 goals already and a shot volume that rarely lets teams breathe.
Augsburg arrive in a far grimmer mood. Manuel Baum’s side are down in 15th, scrapping for traction, and their away form reads like a warning label: four straight away league defeats, plus three away blanks in all competitions. Kick-off is 14:30, and the early pattern matters — Bayern’s pressure tends to come in waves, and Augsburg can’t afford to spend the opening half-hour just surviving.
Team News & Lineups
Bayern Munich — absences (injured/ill)
- Josip Stanisic (capsular injury)
- Jamal Musiala (torn muscle bundle)
- Konrad Laimer (torn muscle fibre)
- Sacha Boey (illness)
- Kim Min-Jae was sent off in the 63rd minute in midweek (discipline concern after Wednesday)
Augsburg — absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Bayern Munich: possible starting XI
Neuer; Bischof, Tah, Kim, Ito; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Gnabry, Diaz; Kane
Augsburg: possible starting XI
Dahmen; Keitel, Schlotterbeck, Zesiger; Fellhauer, Rexhbecaj, Massengo, Giannoulis; Rieder, Claude-Maurice; Gregoritsch
What it means
Bayern’s front four behind Harry Kane is pure chance-production — especially with Michael Olise (10 goals, 13 assists) and Luis Díaz (9 goals, 9 assists) stacking end product from wide. Augsburg’s back three invites a siege, and if they can’t keep the ball, that shape can get pinned so deep it stops being a back three and turns into a back five for long spells.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bayern Munich | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 15th |
| Points | 50 (18 games) | 16 (18 games) |
| Goals scored (Bundesliga) | 71 | 20 |
| Goals conceded (Bundesliga) | 14 | 35 |
| Shots per game | 19.4 | 12.6 |
| Possession | 67.9% | 45.8% |
| Pass completion | 90.1% | 79.8% |
| Clean sheets | 10 (all comps) | 4 (all comps) |
| Corners per game | 5.5 | 4.45 |
| Yellow cards per game | 1.86 | 2.75 |
Bayern’s numbers scream control: high possession, elite pass completion, and a shot rate that keeps opponents trapped. Augsburg are built for a different kind of game — lower possession, more defensive work, and a higher card count that hints at how often they’re forced into last-ditch decisions.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Bayern’s plan: drown the match in territory
Kompany’s Bayern play possession football, control the game in the opposition’s half, and lean into short passes with through balls often. That’s not just a style choice — it’s a way of forcing opponents to defend for long stretches, then punishing the first lapse.
The key detail here is Bayern’s variety. They’re rated very strong at attacking down the wings, creating long-shot opportunities, and carving openings through individual skill. If Augsburg sit deep, Bayern can still shoot; if Augsburg step out, Bayern can slip runners in behind.
Augsburg’s dilemma: press, sit, or gamble?
Augsburg’s style points in the opposite direction: aggressive, attempt crosses often, take long shots, and they even play the offside trap. That’s brave — but risky — against a Bayern side described as very weak at avoiding offside. It’s one of the few spots where Augsburg can try to turn Bayern’s habits into frustration.
The problem is what happens if the trap isn’t perfect. Bayern’s creators don’t need many invitations: Olise has 13 assists, Díaz has 9, and Kane has 21 league goals. A half-step late and the ball is already slid through.
Where Bayern can hurt them most
Look at the ball profile: Bayern average 67.9% possession in the Bundesliga and complete passes at 90.1%. Augsburg sit at 45.8% and 79.8%. That usually means one side dictates where the game is played — and it won’t be in Bayern’s defensive third for long.
Bayern also generate 19.4 shots per game. Augsburg allow pressure to build, and their weaknesses include keeping possession, avoiding individual errors (very weak), and protecting the lead. Even if Augsburg start well, the longer Bayern keep recycling attacks, the more that “one mistake” moment starts to feel inevitable.
Augsburg’s route: survive the storm, then strike with directness
Augsburg can’t win a possession contest here, so the pathway is about moments: win aerials, break the press, and make set pieces count. They do at least offer a physical edge in the air — 15.4 aerials won per game in the league compared to Bayern’s 10.1.
And Bayern aren’t flawless. Their weaknesses include aerial duels, avoiding individual errors, and stopping opponents from creating chances. If Augsburg can turn the match into scrappy, broken phases — especially after clearing crosses — they can create the kind of chaos Bayern don’t always love.
The game script that keeps repeating
Bayern have won five in a row, and across 13 home matches this season they’ve won 12. Augsburg, meanwhile, have lost their last four away league games and arrive on a recent run of one win in six (W1 D3 L2).
So expect Bayern to take the ball, box Augsburg in, and keep asking the same questions until an answer appears. Augsburg’s challenge is mental as much as tactical: can they absorb wave after wave without switching off?
Key Moments to Watch
- Discipline in the defensive third: Augsburg average 2.75 yellows per game, and Bayern’s dribblers love drawing contact. One rash tackle can swing momentum fast.
- Offside line bravery: Augsburg’s offside trap versus Bayern’s tendency to stray offside is a genuine tactical clash — get it right and you buy time, get it wrong and you’re chasing shadows.
- Set pieces and second balls: Augsburg’s aerial numbers are stronger, while Bayern are rated weak in aerial duels. If Augsburg are going to land punches, this is where.
- Bayern’s clean-sheet focus: Bayern’s midweek shutout was their first in four games, and they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three Bundesliga matches. Augsburg need to force that doubt back into the stadium early.
What could go wrong?
For Bayern, it’s the classic trap: total control without the killer goal, then one messy moment — a set-piece scramble, a loose pass, a defensive error — that turns calm into tension. For Augsburg, it’s simpler and harsher: if they concede early, that deep block can collapse into damage limitation, and Bayern have shown they can run up huge numbers.
Best Bet for Bayern Munich vs Augsburg
Can Augsburg survive Bayern’s Allianz Arena blitz — or will Kompany’s leaders turn it into another statement afternoon?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | Bayern: 71 goals; Augsburg: 20 | Bayern -2 Handicap |
| Away Form | Augsburg: 4 straight away losses | Home Win to Nil |
| Shot Volume | Bayern: 19.4/gm; Augsburg: 12.6 | Over 3.5 Goals |
| History | Bayern: 50 pts; Augsburg: 16 pts | Bayern Half Time/Full Time |
Bayern Munich -2 Handicap
Bayern Munich are operating at a level that transcends the standard Bundesliga competition. With 50 points from a possible 54, they have established a league record that highlights their absolute dominance. The core of this success is an attack that has produced 71 goals in just 18 matches, a staggering rate that puts them on pace for 134 goals this season.
Augsburg are the statistical opposite. They are 11 points clear at the bottom of the form table when playing away from home, having lost their last four consecutive away matches in the Bundesliga. More concerning is their complete lack of offensive threat on the road; they have failed to score in their last three away fixtures across all competitions.
The tactical matchup is equally lopsided. Bayern average 19.4 shots per game and maintain nearly 68% possession. This allows them to box opponents into their own defensive third for the duration of the match. Augsburg’s defensive profile is weak when it comes to avoiding individual errors, a flaw that Bayern’s creators like Michael Olise (13 assists) and Luis Díaz (9 assists) are perfectly equipped to exploit.
Furthermore, Bayern have won 12 of their 13 home matches this season. They do not just win at the Allianz Arena; they dominate territory and shot volume. Given Augsburg’s inability to keep the ball (45.8% possession) and their tendency to concede under sustained pressure, a victory by a margin of at least three goals is a logical expectation.
What could go wrong? Bayern’s total dominance can occasionally lead to complacency if a breakthrough doesn’t come in the first 30 minutes. If Augsburg can successfully deploy their offside trap and survive the initial waves of pressure, the match could become a frustrating, low-scoring affair. Additionally, Bayern’s weakness in aerial duels (winning only 10.1 per game) provides Augsburg with a slim window to score from a set-piece scramble.
Correct Score Lean
Bayern Munich 4-0 Augsburg
This scoreline is a direct reflection of the statistical gap between the league leaders and the 15th-placed visitors. Bayern average nearly four goals per game and have scored 71 total in the league. Augsburg arrive having failed to find the net in their last three away matches, meaning the probability of a Bayern clean sheet is high. Given Augsburg’s vulnerability to individual errors and Bayern’s 19.4 shots per game, the hosts will likely convert their immense volume of chances into a routine four-goal margin.
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