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Can Bayer Leverkusen’s possession control contain Stuttgart’s resilience and away-day firepower at the BayArena? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is supported by the relentless scoring form of both teams. Leverkusen have failed to score in only 8% of their last 24 matches, while Stuttgart have a 12-match scoring streak in away Bundesliga fixtures. Defensively, Leverkusen are very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and struggle against set pieces, which plays into Stuttgart's strengths. Given that Stuttgart’s last nine away matches have all seen high goal totals and both sides average over 14 shots per game, it is likely that both keepers will be beaten at least once.
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A 2-1 victory for the hosts aligns with Leverkusen's strong home record of five wins from eight matches and their recent momentum from beating RB Leipzig. While Stuttgart are consistent scorers on the road, they have struggled against top-six opposition recently, conceding 11 goals in their last four such games. Leverkusen’s ability to control the game in the opposition half should see them create enough chances to outscore a Stuttgart side that is dangerous but remains defensively vulnerable to counter-attacks and high-pressure situations at the BayArena.
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Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Predictions and Best Bets
Leverkusen vs Stuttgart — bet365 Market Snapshot
Key markets and illustrative probabilities based on current pricing and match data.
Leverkusen’s strong home record (5 wins in 8) positions them as clear favorites against a dangerous but inconsistent Stuttgart.
Stuttgart have scored in 12 consecutive away games, while Leverkusen average 2.2 goals per match.
- Leverkusen’s scoring reliability at home and overall: they have scored in 22 of their last 24 matches across competitions, meaning Stuttgart must defend for the full ninety without lapses.
- Stuttgart’s away games rarely stay quiet: over 2.5 goals have landed in each of their last nine away Bundesliga matches, reflecting an approach that produces chances and accepts risk.
- Shot volume from both sides fuels open matches: Stuttgart average 16.13 shots per game overall and Leverkusen 14.04, ensuring sustained pressure on both penalty areas.
Attacking Continuity: Scoring Frequency
Both teams demonstrate elite reliability in front of goal, with long scoring streaks across league and cup competitions.
Leverkusen have found the net in nearly every fixture this season, underscoring their offensive pressure.
Stuttgart have a 100% record for finding the net in their recent away Bundesliga fixtures.
Shot Volume: Offensive Aggression
High shot counts for both sides suggest a busy afternoon for the goalkeepers at the BayArena.
Stuttgart lead the volume charts, creating a high frequency of chances per 90 minutes.
Leverkusen maintain a consistent attacking threat with over 14 attempts per match.
The BayArena stages a tight-looking Bundesliga meeting on Saturday, 10 January 2026, with Bayer Leverkusen hosting VfB Stuttgart on matchday 16. Third meets sixth. Twenty-nine points meets twenty-six. Three points sit between them, and with kick-off set for 18:30, this has the feel of a fixture that can quietly shape the direction of both seasons as the campaign moves into its second half.
Leverkusen arrive with momentum built on a statement result, a 3–1 away win against RB Leipzig that reinforced their standing near the top end of the table. Stuttgart come in from a different rhythm, having played out a goalless draw with Hoffenheim in the league before a 3–2 win over FC Luzern, a reminder that their attacking edge never disappears for long. The context is simple and sharp. Leverkusen want to press their home advantage and consolidate third place. Stuttgart want to stay in touch with the Champions League conversation and prove their away inconsistency does not define them.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Leverkusen’s availability picture carries several notes. Exequiel Palacios is listed with a fitness issue. Ernest Poku is dealing with thigh problems. Eliesse Ben Seghir and Christian Kofane are both away on international duty until 19 January 2026. Despite that, the projected structure remains familiar. Leverkusen are shown lining up in a 3-4-2-1 shape, with Mark Flekken in goal behind a back three that has included Edmond Tapsoba, Loïc Badé and Jarell Quansah. Wing-back roles are filled by Arthur on the right and Alejandro Grimaldo on the left, with Aleix García central to progression. Ahead of them, Malik Tillman and Ernest Poku are listed as part of the attacking line behind Patrik Schick.
That shape tells its own story. Leverkusen want to control territory, keep the ball in the opposition half, and create overloads either through the middle or by releasing Grimaldo and Arthur high and early. Schick’s presence gives them a clear reference point in the box, while Tillman and Poku operate between lines, ready to receive and turn.
Stuttgart travel with a different profile. Their availability looks cleaner, and their preferred structure is a 4-2-3-1. Alexander Nübel is the ever-present in goal. The back line has featured Josha Vagnoman and Maximilian Mittelstädt as full-backs, with Jeff Chabot and Finn Jeltsch centrally. Angelo Stiller and Atakan Karazor sit as the double pivot, providing balance behind an attacking band that can include Jamie Leweling, Bilal El Khannouss and Chris Führich, with Deniz Undav or Ermedin Demirovic leading the line depending on rotation.
The shapes immediately point towards a central battle. Leverkusen’s three central defenders and compact midfield want to squeeze the pitch. Stuttgart’s two holding midfielders are tasked with keeping passing lanes open and preventing Leverkusen from turning every regain into a wave of pressure.
How the Match Could Be Played
Leverkusen’s identity is clear. They play possession football, control the game in the opposition’s half, and attack through the middle with short passes. They are very strong on counter-attacks and shooting from direct free kicks, and strong at attacking down the wings and finishing chances. That mix allows them to dominate both structured phases and broken ones. If Stuttgart step high and lose the ball, Leverkusen are ruthless in transition. If Stuttgart sit off, Leverkusen circulate patiently until gaps appear between full-back and centre-back.
The weak spots sit at the other end. Leverkusen are weak defending set pieces, weak protecting the lead, and very weak stopping opponents from creating chances. That combination means control never fully equals comfort. Even when Leverkusen are on top territorially, they give opponents opportunities to stay alive through moments rather than sustained pressure.
Stuttgart are built to exploit that. They also favour possession football with short passes and control in the opposition half. They are very strong at creating long shot opportunities, very strong at coming back from losing positions, and very strong defending set pieces. Add in strong aerial duels and protecting the lead, and Stuttgart arrive with tools specifically suited to testing Leverkusen’s vulnerabilities.
The tactical tension sits in how aggressive Stuttgart choose to be without the ball. Both sides are listed as teams that opponents play aggressively against. If Stuttgart press high, Leverkusen’s short-passing build-up can either carve through them or cough the ball up in dangerous zones. If Stuttgart sit in a mid-block, Leverkusen’s wing-backs become central to stretching the pitch and forcing 1v1s out wide.
Key individual battles naturally emerge. Grimaldo’s attacking output from the left meets Stuttgart’s right side, where Vagnoman’s athleticism and Chabot’s aerial strength are often relied upon. Through the middle, García’s passing range and Tillman’s movement are matched against Stiller’s positioning and Karazor’s defensive discipline. At the sharp end, Schick’s ability to occupy defenders and finish chances tests a Stuttgart back line that can dominate aerially but is weak defending against long shots and counter-attacks.
From Stuttgart’s perspective, Undav’s presence changes the tone. His shot volume and penalty-box instincts give Stuttgart a focal point that can turn half-chances into real moments. Behind him, Leweling’s assist numbers and El Khannouss’ ability to link play offer routes to bypass Leverkusen’s press without resorting to hopeful clearances.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Leverkusen’s league output explains why they sit third. After 15 Bundesliga matches they have scored 33 and conceded 20, a positive goal difference of 13. That balance shows a side that creates consistently while conceding at a manageable rate. They score in 92% of their last 24 matches across competitions, which means opponents rarely get a free ride even on a good defensive day.
At home, the pattern holds. Leverkusen have five wins, one draw and two defeats from eight league matches at the BayArena. Their last four home matches include wins, draws and losses, with 75% of those games clearing over 2.5 goals, underlining how open their home fixtures can become once the game state shifts.
Stuttgart’s numbers paint a slightly different picture. In the Bundesliga they have scored 25 and conceded 22 from 15 matches, a goal difference of +3. They score regularly away from home, having found at least one goal in each of their last 12 away Bundesliga matches. At the same time, their away games lean heavily towards goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in their last nine away league matches.
Shot data reinforces why this fixture often feels busy. Stuttgart average 16.13 shots per game overall, compared to Leverkusen’s 14.04. Both sides generate a high percentage of shots inside the box, but both are also comfortable shooting from range, which matters given that Stuttgart are weak defending against long shots and Leverkusen are very strong at creating them.
Possession figures show there is no natural underdog with the ball. Leverkusen average 56% possession overall, Stuttgart 59%. Both complete passes at a high rate, which points towards spells of sustained possession for each side rather than one-way traffic.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment to watch is how Stuttgart deal with Leverkusen’s wing-backs. If Grimaldo and Arthur are allowed to receive high and early, Leverkusen can pin Stuttgart back and force defending deep in the box. If Stuttgart’s wide players track aggressively, space opens inside for Tillman and García.
The second is set pieces at both ends. Stuttgart are very strong defending set pieces, while Leverkusen are weak. That flips the usual pressure. Leverkusen cannot rely on dead-ball dominance, and any Stuttgart delivery into the box carries weight because Leverkusen struggle in those situations.
The third is game state after the first goal. Leverkusen are weak protecting the lead, while Stuttgart are very strong at coming back from losing positions. If Leverkusen score first, the match does not slow down. It sharpens. If Stuttgart score first, their strength in protecting the lead forces Leverkusen into riskier attacking patterns.
What could go wrong with this read? Fine margins. Both teams rack up shots and both play aggressively in the opposition half. One loose pass under pressure, one long-range strike, or one set-piece lapse can override long spells of control and flip the narrative quickly.
Best Bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
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Both Teams to Score
The offensive profiles of both sides make a clean sheet for either goalkeeper unlikely in this matchup. Leverkusen have found the back of the net in 92% of their last 24 matches across all competitions, a remarkable scoring consistency that highlights their ability to break down various defensive structures. This efficiency is amplified at the BayArena, where they have secured five wins this season while averaging a high volume of chances created through short-passing progression and wing-back involvement. However, their defensive metrics reveal significant vulnerabilities; they are particularly weak at defending set pieces and stopping opponents from creating high-quality chances, which has led to them conceding 20 goals in 15 league outings.
Stuttgart arrive with an equally potent attacking record, especially on their travels. They have scored in each of their last 12 away Bundesliga matches, demonstrating that their tactical approach does not shrink when playing away from home. Their ability to create long-shot opportunities is classified as very strong, a trait that directly exploits Leverkusen’s defensive struggles in preventing shots. Furthermore, Stuttgart are exceptionally resilient, noted for being very strong at coming back from losing positions. This means even if Leverkusen take an early lead, the visitors possess the psychological and technical tools to fight back and find the scoresheet.
The statistical trend for goals is overwhelming in this fixture’s recent history. Over 2.5 goals have landed in Stuttgart’s last nine away league matches, and both teams found the net in 60% of Leverkusen’s last 10 home games. With both managers favouring high-possession, front-foot football—evidenced by average possession figures of 56% and 59% respectively—the game will likely be played in advanced areas. Leverkusen’s weakness in protecting a lead combined with Stuttgart’s aerial strength at set pieces ensures that scoring opportunities will be frequent for both the hosts and the visitors.
What could go wrong
Fine tactical margins or exceptional individual goalkeeping could lead to a lower-scoring affair than the data suggests. While both teams create a high volume of shots, a lack of clinical finishing on the day—or a masterclass from Alexander Nübel or Mark Flekken—could result in one side failing to convert their chances. Additionally, if Stuttgart adopts a uncharacteristically deep mid-block to negate Leverkusen’s pace, the game could become a cagey stalemate.
Correct score lean
2-1
Leverkusen’s superior home form and recent momentum, including a statement 3-1 win over RB Leipzig, give them the edge to take all three points. They have won four of their last five matches at the BayArena, showing they know how to navigate the pressure of their own stadium. While Stuttgart’s scoring streak away from home makes a 0 for them unlikely, their own defensive frailties—specifically a weakness in defending against counter-attacks—will likely be exploited by Leverkusen’s clinical front line. A 2-1 result reflects Leverkusen’s dominance in territory and shot creation while accounting for the high probability of a Stuttgart goal.
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